👀A Star WR Returns While A Star QB Exits

Hey Fantasy Life fam, meet April.

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Sirius XM:

• Injury Situations to Monitor: One Up, One Down
• The Walkthrough. Stevenson SZN
• JMToWin's Week 14 DFS Tips
• Geoff's Bets: Bills, Panthers, and George Pickens
• Matthew Love/Hate for Week 14
• Linda's Kickin' It: Top kicker plays
• It's 12/9. Take it away, Chris Allen.

I wouldn't have faulted you for punching out early from last night's game. The Rams came out with an unprecedented quarterback by committee and converted two third downs by the half. We even got a griddy after a punt. However, Baker Mayfield channeled his inner Tom Brady for a game-winning drive to crush our preconceived notions. 

We're heading into the final week of the regular season, and our rosters need all the help they can get. Players returning from injury are always a boost to our playoff hopes. Here are two injury situations to keep an eye on ahead of Sunday.

⚡The Bolts Get a Jolt at Receiver

WR Mike Williams (ankle) was a full participant in practice today.

— Daniel Popper (@danielrpopper)
Dec 8, 2022

Mike Williams got in a limited session on Wednesday and was upgraded to full yesterday. If active on Sunday, he can add to the 46 snaps he and Keenan Allen have played together over the last three months. The Chargers are in "so-you're-saying-there's-a-chance" territory when discussing the playoffs, so it's not impossible. Regardless, Los Angeles could use the help.

The Chargers' passing game has been tough to watch. They're 20th in EPA per play, and Justin Herbert's 6.2 air yards per attempt ranks 32nd among all starting QBs. With Allen 26th in YPRR and Josh Palmer 40th in YAC per reception, Herbert needs a reliable downfield option to keep the offense moving.

Before his injury, Williams was tied for the team lead in targets (50) and 14th across the league in end-zone target share (35.7%).  Plus, Palmer was the only other primary receiver to earn looks when Herbert was under pressure. Herbert would add a much-needed spark to a team clinging to their playoff hopes. But our fantasy rosters would appreciate his presence, too.

🤕 The One Jaguar We Can't Afford to Lose

After the Lions' defense whipped Trevor Lawrence to the ground, we all held our breaths. Jacksonville is out of the playoff race, but the future is bright in Duval county. A season-ending injury would've been devastating. Lawrence finished the game, but his status for Sunday is uncertain.

For the second straight day, Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (toe) did not participate in practice.

— Field Yates (@FieldYates)
Dec 8, 2022

Beat reports indicate the absence was expected, and Lawrence said he plans to suit up on Sunday. In his stead, CJ Beathard took the first-team reps during practice. Beathard can play well enough to keep a player like Christian Kirk relevant, but Beathard doesn't bring the same potential to lift the entire offense as Lawrence does.

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The Walkthrough is the most comprehensive matchups column in the fantasy space. Every Friday, Rotoworld's Pat Kerrane outlines all the critical fantasy football context for each and every game. Today, he shares a RB he's excited about for Week 14...

With Damien Harris also missing practice on Thursday, Rhamondre Stevenson profiles as an absolute smash.

Stevenson played 53-of-54 Patriots snaps in Week 13 and will have a total workhorse role this week. But, more importantly, he should be a staple of the passing game.

Against the Bills, Stevenson ran a route on 87% of dropbacks. Only Christian McCaffrey (93%, Week 11) has had a game with higher route participation this season. And Stevenson isn't just running empty routes; he's a critical feature of the passing game.

His 19% target share is the fourth highest among running backs. He's also been efficient as a receiver, ranking RB9 with 1.50 YPRR. Stevenson having a valuable workload is nothing new. His 17.2 expected points per game, per PFF, rank RB6. But his workload could be far more valuable than usual as the last playmaker standing in the Patriots' offense.

😴 The Eagles believe in resting their players. I think my name's on there, too.

🚓 The Chargers' offense is criminal. Someone alert the authorities.

💔 We all want more George Pickens. Matt Canada prefers to spread the love.

⭐ Can Tony Pollard keep this up? Marcas & Dwain break it down.

😡 Jamaal Williams: TD...thief??!? His touchdown dances make it OK, though.

🐻 Which team has the most-explosive plays? We couldn't bear the results.

🤬 An all-time Pro Bowl snub. They can't leave him out, right?

🔥 If your team needs a receiver, look no further. Check out her release technique! 

😐 Temper your expectations for these star RBs. It could be worse, but it's not what we want. 

❤️️ It's time for Love/Hate!

It’s #LOVEHATE day! Week 14 is now posted … with many contributions from you! It’s the 2022 edition of “Don’t Look Back in Anger”  - there’s some unbelievable mistakes in there.

— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR)
Dec 8, 2022

JMToWin is a founder/developer of One Week Season, where we focus not only on preparing you for each unique slate, but also on teaching you the strategies and theories behind winning DFS play. Our team has millions of dollars in net DFS profit, and each week we strive to build the OWS Fam into a leaderboard-crashing unit. Become a part of the OWS Fam with OWS Free!

She dropped her groceries and sprinted after him—yelling. She had no plan. She had no idea what she would do if she caught the thief; but she was yelling, sprinting, and gaining on him. Gaining on him!

The stolen 24-pack was slowing him down.

He spun toward her, heaved the beer off his shoulder, and threw the case. Beer exploded across the pavement. My sister jumped away from the spray and watched him run the rest of the way to his car and jump in, and peel out of the parking lot.

A few moments later, the grocery store's security guard caught up to her at the foamy puddle of exploded beer. "What are you doing?" he asked, catching his breath. "Don't put yourself at risk for something like that!"

Great advice, sure. But he was talking to my sister, and my sister acts first, and assesses the risk later.

This week's Main Slate gives us only ten games, with many of the top offenses and skill players missing. Plus, the big names we DO have are in tough situations.. Only two games on this slate have an Over/Under of 45.0 or higher—and one of these games is Vikings at Lions, which blows away all the other games available with a 51.5-point total. "The way to play this slate" is obvious—but "obvious" rarely wins us tourneys. Oftentimes, we have to be willing to see an alternate opportunity—and to take that opportunity without worrying about the potential risk.

While I'll certainly have plenty of interest in that Vikings/Lions game this week, here are a couple of other opportunities I'm seeing that feel worth whatever risk is involved:

🦅 Eagles On The Ground?

The Eagles are one of the more adaptable offenses in the NFL, and with that understanding, we were hammering the Philly passing attack last week against the tough run defense of the Titans. But all things being equal, Philly also prefers to lean toward the run, and while the Giants rank 28th in DVOA (Football Outsiders) against the pass, they rank 27th against the run. Last week, our competition was scared to pull the trigger on Jalen Hurts // A.J. Brown // Devonta Smith due to uncertain volume. This week, our competition is likely to be scared to pull the trigger on Miles Sanders. Is there risk? Absolutely! But there is also opportunity.

🐅 Aggressive Zac Taylor?

The Bengals have their core back together for the first time since Week 7. But adding the pieces back together invites uncertainty in playcalling tendencies.

Coaches who have an explosive offense often call their own offensive game plan according to what the opposing offense is capable of. If the opposing offense is incapable of scoring points quickly, it's not unusual for us to see the "explosive offense" on the other side of the ball call a conservative game after taking a lead. ("Sure, we could probably keep scoring points; but our clearest path to winning this game is to control the clock and force this low-octane opponent to try to scrape their way back into this one.")

Zac Taylor on Kevin Huber and Joe Mixon who could get out of concussion protocol Wednesday

— Mike Petraglia (@Trags)
Dec 5, 2022

On the flip side, coaches with a good offense will often call a more aggressive game when facing an opponent that can score quickly. ("We can't assume we have enough points; we should keep our foot on the gas.") Deshaun Watson looked poor in his first game in two years, but will Zac Taylor assume that Watson will look poor again?—or will he instead approach this game with the assumption that the Bengals will need to score as many points as they can?

I might not be chasing after a kid stealing beer in a parking lot—but I'll still be taking on risk this week, worrying more about the upside than about "what might go wrong." THIS is a risk that's worth the reward.

In between placing waiver claims and setting our lineups, we do a little sports betting around here. Today Geoff is here to give you his three best bets of the week. All odds from our friends at BetMGM.

💰 Panthers +4.5

The Panthers have treated this column well, covering for us against the Falcons and Broncos in recent weeks. The team is coming off a bye in Week 13 and have an uptrending defense that has allowed 15 or less points per game in each of their last three starts – and is averaging 3.7 sacks over that span, fourth-best in the league. 

Seattle’s in a vulnerable spot this week as well. They’ve given up the fourth-most sacks against the last three weeks and have major injury issues in the backfield with Deejay Dallas and Ken Walker III both questionable and looking unlikely to play. The Panthers are 5-1 ATS over their last six games and in a good spot to improve on that record in Week 14. 

💰 Bills -9.0

The Bills were dominant in their last game against the Patriots, allowing Mac Jones just 5.1 yards per pass attempt and limiting the Patriots to just 255 yards of total offense for the game. Top cornerback Tre’Davious White played over 60% of the snaps in his first game back from injury last week and should see more work against the Jets given the 10-day break for Buffalo. He and safety Jordan Poyer should make Buffalo a difficult team to pass on down the stretch. 

.@BuffaloBills are 8-0 when Jordan Poyer plays this season

— CBS Sports (@CBSSports)
Dec 2, 2022

Jets quarterback Mike White started to show some cracks last week against Minnesota, as he threw for under 6.0 yards per attempt and two INTs against a weaker secondary. The Bills are 12-7-2 ATS as home favorites since the start of 2020 and can shut the door on the Jets division title chances this week. Expect a Buffalo romp here. 

💰 Broncos +9.5

The Broncos may have blown the win last week but they covered easily against the Ravens and now get nearly the exact same spread this week against a division rival in Kansas City. The Broncos Russell Wilson put together what was likely his best game of the season last week, completing 17 of 22 passes for 8.6 yards per attempt, and a 102.3 passer rating. 

Asking the Chiefs to cover big spreads at home hasn’t been the most profitable endeavor either as they’re just 7-9-1 ATS as home favorites since the beginning of 2020. Look for TE Greg Dulcich (6 rec. 85 yards on 8 targets in Week 13) to potentially find the end zone this week as well and help keep this game close. 

💰 Top Player Props

• Russell Wilson over 212.5 passing yards -120
• Mike White under 247.5 passing yards -115

Picking kickers can be a pain, but relax, we have our resident kicking expert Linda to help you make the right choice...

Can you believe that it’s already Week 14? It feels like we were just arguing about ADP and rookie upside. The fantasy playoffs are fast approaching, and wins matter more now than ever. I’m going to do my best to saddle you with a kicker that will propel you to those wins. 

First, let’s look back at last week. Ryan Succop was a letdown. I need to remind myself that the Saints are Tom Brady’s kryptonite. Succop is only the second kicker this season that hasn’t put up at least 8 fantasy points against New Orleans. 

As for the LAC vs. LVR and KC vs. CIN matchups that I thought could turn into field goal fest, all four kickers attempted multiple field goals. Harrison Butker was the only kicker of the four that didn’t score at or above the league median. 

But enough about last week; we’re moving forward. 

🦵Greg Joseph (Linda's Rank: K12)

Now, bear with me because I know this is a little scary. Joseph has had his fair share of misses this season, but what we’re looking for are field goal attempts. The last time the Lions and Vikings faced off, Joseph had multiple field goal attempts. In the last five games, the Vikings have attempted multiple field goals every week except one (the week the Cowboys uprooted them). 

This contest has the highest over/under on the week, set at 51.5 on BetMGM. Joseph is rostered in less than 20% of Yahoo! leagues. 

🦵Michael Badgley (Linda's Rank: K7)

The other half of the Vikings/Lions game is rostered in about 35% of Yahoo! leagues. He had a monster game last weekend, and if you’re chasing points to get into the playoffs, he’s just the right kind of boom/bust kicker I’d be deploying this week. 

You can find my Week 14 kicker rankings on FantasyLife.com.