It’s not about the Super Bowls. It’s about the friends and money you make along the way...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Epic Seats:
- DeAndre Hopkins and Joe Mixon updates
- OverReaction Monday: Do you believe the quotes?
- Deebo Samuel’s offseason training program
- Key Fantasy Questions: Who will emerge of the Chiefs WRs?
- It's 7/17. Take it away, Peter Overzet...
The weekend brought us two big pieces of NFL news with interesting fantasy implications. Let’s dive in…
✈️ Nuk To The Titans
The best remaining free agent WR is finally off the market:
It’s reportedly a two-year deal worth up to $15 million with various incentives.
It’s still somewhat perplexing that Nuk would elect to go to Tennessee, as opposed to prioritizing a contender like the Chiefs or the Bills, but this isn’t the worst spot for him as far as fantasy is concerned.
There is a ton of volume up for grabs in Tennessee, and this move should cement Ryan Tannehill as the starter (there’s no way Hopkins was agreeing to 17 games with Will Levis).
Hopkins remains a solid selection in the fourth round of drafts.
As for Treylon Burks–the only other Titans WR being selected in drafts–I think the addition of Nuk is neutral for his fantasy outlook, and his ADP shouldn’t change much.
He’ll lose some volume, sure, but that will be offset by more efficiency, fewer double teams, and the assurance that Tannehill is the starter for as long as the team remains competitive.
🏠️ Mixon Stays In Cincy
Despite early offseason rumors surrounding a cut or a trade, the Bengals have decided to keep RB Joe Mixon.
Mixon took a big haircut to remain in Cincinnati and tethered to Joe Burrow.
He was due $9.4 million under his old non-guaranteed contract–which is what fueled the cut rumors–but agreed to restructure his contract to a much more team-friendly deal that involves a $4.39 million pay cut this year and a $4.67 million pay cut next year.
Mixon falls into an all-too-familiar category of veteran RBs who have very little contract leverage in the current NFL landscape.
Had Mixon played hardball, the team would have simply cut him and extended a cheap offer to one of the many available free-agent backs–Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette, Ezekiel Elliott, and Kareem Hunt.
Not to mention, the team has two capable backs already on the roster in rookie Chase Brown and veteran Trayveon Williams–both of who remain intriguing late-round targets.
Instead, Mixon will get to continue his career with the team that drafted him and stay in the mix for a Super Bowl.
As for fantasy, Mixon had been hovering in the mid-fifth round of Underdog Drafts while the market waited to see where he ended up.
I think you could argue Mixon now belongs around the 3-4 turn in drafts (right around Travis Etienne and Jahmyr Gibbs), but that price does not bake in the potential for a suspension:
Mixon is facing a misdemeanor aggravated menacing charge that is set for trial Aug. 14, during Cincinnati's training camp. According to police records obtained by ESPN, Mixon allegedly pointed a gun at a woman Jan. 21 in a road rage incident and threatened to shoot her.
ESPN’s Ben Baby
🤔 So, how to play it?
Similar to targeting Alexander Mattison before Cook’s inevitable release, the time to aggressively target Mixon in drafts was before this situation was finalized.
With his ADP likely to scream up into the late-third round, there remains a ton of risk for a back who
- is about to turn 27 years old
- was very inefficient last year
- might get hit with a suspension and
- is likely to cede touches to another back like he did last year with Samaje Perine.
Still, Mixon’s strong pass-catching chops and redzone usage give him paths to a big season and single-game spike week upside. Just remain price-conscious if you decide to chase the steam.
We're humans who play fantasy football, which means we are prone to overreact. Today, Kendall ponders whether we should believe everything we hear.
We are starved for football. It’s okay, we can all just admit it. Luckily for us training camp is right around the corner, but with training camp comes great responsibility. We’re going to be hearing a lot of hype in the next few weeks — “best shape of my life”, “mid-season form”, “Super Bowl contenders”. While we love the enthusiasm, it’s important to decipher which quotes could turn into reality and which are just training camp-isms (trademark incoming).
To practice, here are some quotes that stood out in the last couple of days. Are we buying them?
📓 Subject: Jordan Love
🔈️ The Quote: “Everybody would run through a wall for him”
The Green Bay Packers are in a unique position heading into the 2023 season. Aaron Rodgers is out of the picture and everyone is trying to figure out what version of new quarterback Jordan Love the team is going to get. Well, if you ask running back AJ Dillon, the Packers are not only behind Love, but respect him and trust him.
"He's earned the trust of the locker room,” he said. “Guys respect him. Guys wanna play for him. Guys wanna help him as much as they wanna help themselves … I think he's got a lot of support and everybody would run through a wall for him."
Love is in a unique situation. He’s not just coming out of college, he’s been Rodgers’ backup for three years. I think we are all seemingly glossing over the fact that he’s been ‘mentored’ by one of the best in the game.
It’s tough to have takeaways from Love’s 83 career regular season pass attempts, but he does get to work behind PFF’s reigning third-ranked offensive line and also has some pretty sound weapons around him.
Are we buying this quote? YUP. Jordan Love SZN!
📓 Subject: Jahmyr Gibbs
🔈️ The Quote: “Special weapon” like Marshall Faulk or Christian McCaffrey
Here, already, our expectations are SKY HIGH. Lions General Manager Brad Holmes is not only telling us that rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs is a special talent, but also giving us elite names to compare him to, but let’s get the full quote in here:
“I'm not sitting here saying Jahmyr Gibbs is those players, but (he's) just a special weapon like that. We have a lot of excitement and optimism."
See, it’s very important with training camps coming up to not just skim the headlines! We are all excited about what Gibbs can do in this Lions offense, especially with Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift out of the picture. Last season at Alabama, Gibbs rushed 151 times for 926 yards, caught 44 passes for 444 yards and scored 10 total touchdowns.
Does a true workhorse role seem unlikely after the deal the Lions gave David Montgomery? Sure, but he should still be a higher priority in drafts this season.
Are we buying this quote? NOT YET.
Gibbs could be (will be) special, but let’s allow him to get acclimated to the NFL before we throw those big names around.
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🤐 Mike Vrabel doesn’t spill secrets. Even to Pat McAfee.
🐻 Chig Okonkwo vs. big game. Who ya got?
🤑 Evan Engram inks a new deal. The Jags solidifying their offensive core.
📣 Kirk Cousins addresses the haters. Of which there are many.
😬 Could things get even worse for Kyle Pitts? Stunning numbers for QB accuracy.
🥊 Deebo Samuel going sicko beast mode. I’m not fading him in points per jabs league.
🏆 Another new Fantasy Football format!? 17 chances to win $20,000.
NFL training camp doesn’t exactly bring full clarity to every question surrounding the 2023 fantasy football season – but damnit it’s something! What follows is Ian’s breakdown on the most-pressing fantasy-relevant question facing all 32 teams ahead of training camp. As always: It’s a great day to be great...
🐶 Cleveland Browns
Question: Will Nick Chubb finally get the sort of workhorse three-down role that his talents warrant?
It’s a minor miracle how well Chubb has performed in fantasy land, considering the extent to which the Browns have refrained from fully featuring him:
- 2020: RB28 in expected PPR points per game, RB9 real
- 2021: RB20 expected, RB12 real
- 2022: RB18 expected, RB8 real
It’s no surprise that Chubb ranks first in PPR points above expectation per game (+3.3) at the position since 2020.
Kareem Hunt remains a free agent, and D’Ernest Johnson signed with the Jaguars, meaning Chubb might finally get the sort of three-down role that his extraterrestrial talents deserve.
Presumed No. 2 RB Jerome Ford is reportedly set for a “much larger role this season”; just realize the offense could flow through one of the best RBs in the game far more than usual this year.
❓ Kansas City Chiefs
Question: Who will emerge as the offense’s No. 1 WR?
The current consensus pick is Kadarius Toney considering the constant drumbeat of praise he’s received all offseason long.
- February 28: Reid says Toney will probably have a bigger role and is very talented.
- May 7: Chiefs GM Brett Veach said, “I don’t know if there is a limit on [Kadarius Toney's] game because he has a vertical game. It’s a fair question to [ask]: ‘Has he ever played with a quarterback that likes to push the ball down the field?’ We have a lot of high hopes for him. He was a first-round pick for a reason. There’s a reason why we traded for him and we felt like he was a first-round talent.”
- May 29: ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler said the Chiefs believe Toney can be the “No. 1 type receiver” they’re looking for this season.
- June 1: OC Matt Nagy said Toney is, “Super talented with the football in his hands, and he’s been that way his entire life in his football career.” Nagy noted that Toney now knows the "ins and outs" of the Chiefs' system entering his second season with the team: "He was able to do that, and it’s exciting now for us to be able to take that to Year 2 and build that relationship with (Patrick Mahomes)."
- July 13: Patrick Mahomes on Toney: "I'm extremely excited. He has all the talent and he works his tail off like I was talking about with [Travis Kelce]. Obviously, we're going to try to keep him healthy and on the field as much as possible - because when he's on the field, he's a difference maker...I think the sky is the limit. He can be one of the best receivers in this league.”
And yet, 2018 Sammy Watkins (11.5, WR35) was the only WR not named Tyreek Hill to average double-digit PPR points per game in a single season between 2016 and 2021.
This passing game proved capable of putting up bonkers numbers without the assistance of a volume-hog WR last year, but any of the team’s WRs are in line to smash ADP with the sort of usage that helped both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman post top-36 finishes in PPR points per game last season.
My pick is Toney, but best believe the likes of Skyy Moore, Rashee Rice and/or Marquez Valdes-Scantling among others will be booming up the ranks with some level of assuredness surrounding a featured role in 2023.
Check out Ian’s biggest question for the rest of the NFL here
