Oh, now you decide to show up Tom...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:
- A wild Week 17
- Bud Light Six Pack Recap
- OverReaction Monday. Studs and duds.
- MNF Game Preview. It's the championship hammer.
- Betting First Look. tbd
- It’s 1/2. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
What an incredible day of football.
It's hard to ask for much more in the Championship week. We enjoyed Hall of Famers returning from the dead for 40 balls, superstar RBs dropping monster games, and all kinds of interesting ramifications to the playoff picture.
We also need to give a big shoutout to NBC Sport's Pat Kerrane, who shares terrific insights with us each week in his Friday Walkthrough segment, for his current first place position ($2,000,000) in Underdog Fantasy's massive Best Ball Mania III contest.
We'll be sweating with him tonight. Good luck, sir!
Read on for the top performers from Week 17, overreactions, and a preview of the Week 17 finale between the Bills and the Bengals.
🥶 Joe Cool vs Josh Allen… who ya got?
Either way, one of these guys (or both) is getting you $200 bucks this Monday night.
Bet $10 Get $200 - If any team scores a TD during this MNF showdown and you live in Ohio, Maryland, Kansas, Illinois, or Louisiana, all you have to do is:
- Sign up at BetMGM: Register an account and make your first deposit
- Download: Get the BetMGM Sportsbook App on IOS or Android
- Bet on Any NFL Team
💰 Matt LaMarca is betting: Bills -1.0
The last Monday Night Football game of the year should be a great one. The Bills will travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals, and both of these teams still have a shot at the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. The Bills are in control of their own destiny, while the Bengals would need two wins and the Chiefs to lose next week vs. the Raiders. It’s unlikely, but it’s still a possibility.
The Bengals have been the best team at covering the spread since the start of the 2021-22 season, but they have undoubtedly been fortunate of late. They were outplayed thoroughly in the first half by the Buccaneers two weeks ago, but Tampa turned it over on five straight drives to start the second half. The Patriots were also going in for a late go-ahead score last week, but a Rhamondre Stevenson fumble secured the win for the Bengals.
They’re going to need to play much better to have a shot vs. the Bills. Buffalo hasn’t been a juggernaut this year, but they still rank first in the league in Football Outsiders DVOA. They are outstanding on both sides of the ball, and I think the one-point spread is slightly undervaluing them against Cincinnati.
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Peter is here to share her six big takeaways from the week's action compliments of our friends over at Bud Light. Let's crack open that six pack, Pete...
🍺 1. Tom Brady & Mike Evans go bonkers
The Bucs have been one of the most frustrating teams in fantasy all year, but if you somehow dragged a Brady and Evans team to the championship, well, congrats on the hardware.
Evans exploded for 207 yards and 3 TDs on ten receptions, while Brady finished with a whopping 432 yards passing and 3 TDs.
Mike Evans: “I’m giving you 200 receiving yards and 3 TDs on fantasy championship weekend.”
Mike Evans Fantasy Managers: “None of us made the playoffs.”
— Jeff Eisenband (@JeffEisenband)
Jan 1, 2023
The massive line for Evans extends his wild streak to nine (yes, NINE) straight 1,000 yard seasons.
🍺 2. No Derek Carr? No problem
I didn't think there was any chance the Raiders could hang with the Niners in this spot and yet that is exactly what they did.
Jarrett Stidham wasn't perfect (2 INTs), but he moved the ball well (365 yards and 3 TDs) and dragged the Raiders to overtime with a legitimate Super Bowl contender in the San Francisco 49ers.
Davante Adams flopped in Week 16, but totally redeemed himself here with a monster 7-153-2 line, including this insane catch. His connection with Stidham was so great that you'd think they went on a white water rafting trip together or something.
🍺 3. The elite RBs deliver
Christian McCaffrey was the 1.01 or 1.02 in most drafts and Austin Ekeler never slipped past pick five or six. They both delivered on the early round draft cost when it mattered the most in Week 17.
Everyone who thought Austin Ekeler was going to hit TD regression this season may well be right: after scoring 20 total TD last season, he’s now on pace for just 19.1 this season with his 2 scores already today.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates)
Jan 1, 2023
Ekeler, who we were slightly worried about heading into Sunday, dropped 161 yards from scrimmage and 2 TDs, while McCaffrey put up 193 yards and 1 TD.
🍺 4. Split Detroit backfield? Who cares
It's been hard to know when to start D'Andre Swift and when to start Jamaal Williams, but today the answer was emphatically BOTH.
Swift tallied 27.7 PPR points thanks to 2 TDs, while Williams continued his scorcher of a season with 144 yards and 1 TD.
Not only does Williams still lead the league in rushing TDs (15), but he also notched another personal best vs. the Bears:
The Lions leaned on their rushing attack in their 41-10 victory over the Bears, setting season-highs in carries (39), yards (265) & RYOE (+98).
Jamaal Williams led the backfield with a career-high 144 rushing yards (+65 over expected).
#CHIvsDET | #OnePride
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats)
Jan 1, 2023
🍺 5. Danny Dimes is playoff bound
While other NFC playoff teams like the Eagles and Vikings struggled in Week 17, Daniel Jones got the job done in a big way against the Colts with 2 passing TDs and 2 rushing TDs.
With the win, the Giants punched their tickets to the playoffs and will likely square off against the Vikings in Round 1. What's crazy is despite being the 6 seed in that potential matchup, I'm not sure they should be underdogs.
Saquon Barkley on Daniel Jones after the #Giants clinched their first playoff berth since 2016: “I told him I loved him, man. Every single day he comes in to work. And it’s about time he starts getting some damn respect, for real.” twitter.com/mikegarafolo/s…
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet)
Jan 1, 2023
🍺 6. The Vikings get exposed
We've been mostly fading the Vikings around here thanks to their absurd record relative to point differential and the chickens came home to roost yesterday on the road in Green Bay.
The Packers demolished them in a must-win game, shutting down Justin Jefferson (1-15), and racking up two sacks, three INTs, 2 DST TDs, and a partridge in a pear tree.
The Packers are now one win over Detroit next week away from making the playoffs. Incredible:
Well here it is:
A graph of the Packers’ weekly playoff chances up until this point.— Daire Carragher (@DaireCarragher)
Jan 2, 2023
🏆 The low key league winner from 2022. What an incredible run down the stretch.
🎩 More big hats! Brian Robinson started a trend and I'm here for it.
🦽 The Ravens mascot has bits. So good.
💡 A great idea if you win your fantasy league. Pay it forward.
🐷 We stan Major Tuddy. What a great day for the mascots.
🤔 How will the Giants approach their game vs. the Eagles?? Interesting dynamic at play.
💰 Ja'Marr Chase could break the slate tonight. Find out why OWS & PFF are on him tonight.
We're humans who play fantasy football, which means we are prone to overreact. In this weekly series, Kendall will lead us in overreacting to this weekend's action...
💎 Thank you for your service, Mike Evans
WOW! Who could have predicted that?! After only scoring three touchdowns from Weeks 1-14, the Mike Evans and Tom Brady connection came back in full force and probably led you to a fantasy championship.
Evans finished the day with 10 receptions, 207 yards and three touchdowns for an absolutely incredible 48.7 fantasy points. Brady threw for 432 yards, ran one in for a touchdown and finished with 37.7 fantasy points, the highest mark all season. Now for the overreaction part: is this a sign of things to come?
The Buccaneers clinched the NFC South title with their win over the Panthers on Sunday, and it’ll also be the 14th consecutive season Brady has made the postseason. Are they heating up at the right time? Tampa Bay’s season has been highlighted by more lows than highs, but once the postseason hits it’s a clean slate.
Brady is 35-12 in the playoffs in his career and while this season was by far the worst to watch, he still got things done. How does that saying go? Never bet against Tom Brady? This should be fun. As the lowest-seeded division winner, the Buccaneers get the highest-seeded Wild Card team, which will be announced after Week 18. Can Brady make magic happen?
💎 Here's to the Championship studs & duds
I hope this overreaction Monday finds you flushed with cash and bragging rights for the next few months after a big win. We saw some stellar performances (like the ones mentioned above) but we also had some serious duds from players WE TRUSTED WITH OUR LIVES. Let’s go through some…
💎 Stud: Davante Adams
Week 17 could have been the time Adams simmered down. His BFF Derek Carr got benched and they faced a tough 49ers team. BUT NO! Adams made some incredible plays and also broke Tim Brown's franchise single-season receiving record (1,408 yards) in the process. Also who could have seen quarterback Jarrett Stidham coming?
Adams posted the second-most wide receiver fantasy points with 34.3 and hopefully led you to a victory. STUD.
❌ Dud: Justin Jefferson
Ummmm. Hello? Justin Jefferson? Are you there?
Hand up, I was someone who believed Jefferson would post a big line in Week 17 because of all the trash-talking from Packers CB Jaire Alexander.
I figured that was adding fuel to his MVP-like season, and he would absolutely go off. The opposite happened.
Jefferson finished the day with just one catch for 15 yards and 2.50 fantasy points — his worst performance of the season. Alexander and the Packers held Jefferson to zero receptions in the first half for the second time in his career. Ultimate pain. He’ll be seeing this griddy in his nightmares.
💎 Bonus stud: Austin Ekeler
Death, taxes and Ekeler carrying your fantasy team. Honestly, just thank you. Thank you for being you, Austin. The fantasy community is forever indebted to you.
Ekeler scored 32.1 fantasy points, the fourth time this season he has exceeded 30 points. He is still RB1 in fantasy land with 331.60 points on the year. OUR KING.
Timing is crucial when it comes to sports betting. Lines get released late on Sunday night, and every Monday, our betting specialist Matt LaMarca drops by to give you his first look at the betting markets. All lines from BetMGM...
💰 Titans +7 (@ Jaguars)
- Pick: Titans +7
Never in a million years did it feel like the AFC South would finish like this. Not only are the Jaguars favored to win the division, but they’re favored by a full touchdown over the Titans.
The Jags were able to pick up their sixth win in their past eight games, while the Titans have stumbled to six straight losses. That makes it seem like the Jaguars have all the momentum.
However, it’s important to remember that the Jaguars are ahead of schedule. This is easily the biggest game that most of their players have played in, while the Titans have been in numerous big contests. They’re more battled tested, so expect them to have better control of their nerves early on.
The Titans will also have a rested Derrick Henry back in the lineup this week, and that should be a scary proposition for the Jags’ defenders. He has dominated against Jacksonville throughout his career, and he’s racked up at least 121 rushing yards in four of their previous five meetings.
The Jags did manage to beat the Titans in their first matchup this season, but Tennessee uncharacteristically had four turnovers in that outing. They lost all three of their fumbles, and you’re not going to win many games when you lose the turnover battle 4-0.
I think it’s reasonable to say that the Jaguars are the better team at the moment, but seven points feels like too many for a team with as much experience as the Titans.
Mike Vrabel has also historically been an elite underdog coach, so I expect the sharps to be on the Titans in this spot. The public should be on the Jags, but expect this number to dip below seven pretty quickly.
💰 Jets +3.5 (@ Dolphins)
- Pick: Jets +3.5
You’re going to hear a lot of talk this week about how certain teams “need to win.” The Dolphins are one of them.
A loss vs. the Jets eliminates them from playoff contention, while a win brings their projected playoff odds back to 80%. The stakes don't get much higher than that.
However, casual bettors tend to overvalue the importance of motivation in must-win scenarios. Most of these teams play hard year-round, so there’s not really an extra gear they turn to when they need to win. In fact, the added pressure of these must-win spots is often a negative.
Meanwhile, the Jets can simply play free and easy while trying to play spoiler against a hated division rival. They also match up well with the Dolphins, who rely on their explosive passing attack to move the football.
The Jets have one of the best pass defenses in the league, ranking sixth in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA, while the Dolphins have some major uncertainty at quarterback. The most recent report about Tua Tagovailoa is scary, while backup Teddy Bridgewater left last week’s game with a finger injury.
The Jets are already down to +3.0 at most locations, but you can still grab +3.5 on BetMGM. I think that would be a wise decision.
It's island game time, and Geoff is here to give you the 411 on this important MNF matchup between the Bills & the Bengals...BTW we also have previews and picks for every game in our Game Hub!
🐯 Bills at Bengals(+1.5) – 49.5 total
What a way to end the Monday Night Football season. There is no Monday Night Football in Week 18, so we’re ending things on a major high note as the Bills travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals in a potential AFC Championship preview.
This game has pretty massive implications for both teams.
The Bills are currently on track for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, which comes with a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. However, if they lose, their chances of securing the No. 1 seed dip to just nine percent.
The Bengals are also still in play for the top seed. The Chiefs would move into the top spot if Cincinnati beats Buffalo, but if Kansas City drops either of their final two games, the Bengals could overtake them.
No one thought the No. 1 seed was possible for Cincinnati after they started the year just 2-3. However, they’ve won 10 of their past 11 games, which has propelled them back near the top of the standings. Even if they don’t get the No. 1 seed, the Bengals can secure an AFC North title with a win in either of their final two games.
The Bengals’ offense gets plenty of credit for the turnaround, ranking fifth in offensive DVOA. Joe Burrow has bounced back after a slow start to the year, and he’s on pace to surpass last year’s numbers. He has some of the best receivers in football at his disposal, and they rank fifth in rushing DVOA as well.
That said, don’t sleep on their defense.
Their defense was one of the team’s biggest flaws last year, ranking just 19th in DVOA and 24th in pass defense DVOA. They’ve seen improvements in both departments this season, and they’re ninth in the league in points per game allowed.
They’ll need to show up on both sides of the ball against the Bills, who remain the Super Bowl favorites. It hasn’t always been smooth sailing for the Bills, but they rank first in the league in yardage differential and third in scoring differential. They’re also first in DVOA, and they have a top-four unit both offensively and defensively.
The Bills are currently riding a six-game winning streak, but this will easily be their toughest test since beating the Chiefs in Week 6. They’ve also had some close calls during that stretch, winning by three points against the Lions and Dolphins and one score against the Jets and Browns. Even though they’ve been the best team in football by most measures, they’re far from a juggernaut.
They’re slight road favorites in this contest, but the Bengals have been the best team in the league at covering the spread over the past two seasons. Including the playoffs, they’re 26-10 against the spread since the start of 2021-22, and they’re 12-3 against the spread this season. They’ve been nearly perfect as underdogs, posting a mark of 11-3 against the spread over that stretch.
That said, the sharps have shown some early interest in the Bills, and it’s possible that the Bengals have become a bit overvalued. They’ve deserved to lose their past two games, but the Buccaneers and Patriots both shot themselves in the foot. The Buccaneers turned it over on five straight possessions to start the second half, while Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled as the Patriots were going in for a potential game-winning score.
The Bengals are going to have to play much better if they hope to contend with the Bills. Either way, this should be a fun one.
