Oh, the weather outside is frightful...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:
- Tis the season to be freezin.
- Morning Download: Dwain gets you caught up
- DFS Stacks. The Gift of Geno.
- Bets From the Group Chat. McKinnon magic.
- Player Matchups. Tidings of comfort and good JuJu.
- It’s 12/24. Take it away, Dwain McFarland…
I am a sucker for a good winter wonderland song at this time of year — but when it comes to our fantasy teams, it isn't a beautiful sight, nor does it make us happy tonight. We don't have a problem singing along, let it snow, let it snow, let it snow. However, it becomes a different story when the sustained 20-plus mph winds blow.
Unfortunately, today we could all get a little coal in our fantasy stockings thanks to a windy forecast that could drastically impact the passing and kicking games in multiple Week 16 matchups.
The games in Cleveland and Chicago look especially bad, and fantasy managers need to adjust expectations if they haven't done so already.
🏈🌬️ The two windiest games this week are in CLE and CHI. Here’s a model forecast of wind gusts (not sustained) in both:
CLE 45ish
CHI 35ishPIT and BAL also on the gusty side (and all with miserable temps).
Here’s my latest:— Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx)
Dec 23, 2022
🥶️ Saints at Browns
With temps in the teens and sustained winds of 25-plus mph in the forecast, all passing-game options get a downgrade in this contest. The 32-point game total is a record-low over the last 15 seasons.
Not only is it cold, but Andy Dalton will be without Chris Olave (hamstring) and Jarvis Landry (IR). Dalton averages 218.5 passing yards per game, but BetMGM has his line at an astoundingly low 133.5 for Week 16. Theoretically, there are targets up for grabs for Rashid Shaheed and Juwan Johnson, but they are best left on benches.
Alvin Kamara could be busy today toting the rock and catching short passes but the defense will be ready. With more action likely to come on the ground, Taysom Hill's rushing total is climbing. Hill is a high-end TE1 with upside.
Deshaun Watson will have all of his weapons, but his passing yardage total is down 20% on Underdog at 150.5. The veteran QB should be on fantasy benches.
The Browns No. 1 target, Amari Cooper, has a 33.5-yard receiving prop, despite a season average of 66.6. He falls into WR3 territory behind names like D.J. Moore, DeVonta Smith, Michael Pittman Jr. and Jerry Jeudy.
Donovan Peoples-Jones averages 12.4 points over the last four games, but he falls out of WR3 territory into the hope-and-pray WR4 category.
🥶️ Bills at Bears
The temps in Chicago will feel like minus ten degrees, with sustained winds over 20 mph.
The Bills still carry a top-six team total (24.5) despite the weather, but Josh Allen's passing-yard prop of 220.5 is 55 yards below his season average. Of course, we are starting the superstar QB, who could come through on the ground or via multiple TDs.
However, outside of Stefon Diggs, there aren't any other players we should force into our lineups. Gabriel Davis lives on the deep ball with 15.9 ADOT, making him a prime candidate for a bust game. Think of Davis as a WR4-type of play.
If you have Tyler Bass at kicker — find a replacement immediately.
On the Bears' side of the ball, Justin Fields will look to do most of his damage on the ground, where he averages 100.8 yards since Week 6. He remains a top-six option, but the dual-threat blowup game is less likely.
Read on for more of the biggest fantasy news stories from last night and our favorite DFS plays and sports bets for today's action.
- GAME HUB - Everything you need to know about each game all in one place.
- INACTIVES - updated at 11:30am ET for 1pm games
- RANKINGS - Full Week 13 rankings for multiple scoring settings from Dwain & Waz
- FANTASY LIFE TWITTER - If news breaks, we'll have it.
- START/SIT TOOL - Debating who to start? Simply type in both players to this tool, and we'll tell you the best option:
- PLAYER PROPS TOOL - Our freshly updated props tool is here to give you the best bets for each game.
🎄 FELIZ NAVI—FREE PLAY
Playing with presents is not just for kids:
If you live in Maryland, Kansas, Illinois, or Louisiana, we're spicing up your holiday weekends - just not the same way your crazy uncle always does (unless you're the crazy uncle...).
- Sign up at BetMGM: Register an account and make your first deposit
- Download: Get the BetMGM Sportsbook App on IOS or Android
- Bet on Any NFL Team
- IF ANY NFL team scores a TD, you get $200 in free bets
And, we've even got you covered if you don't live in one of those four states.
BetMGM is making sure everyone's got winners in their stockings:
FreeBets are credits which allow participants to place another bet with BetMGM Sports; such credits cannot be withdrawn or cashed out by participants, are forfeited when used to place a bet, and are subject to loss if the bet(s) placed with such credits do not win. FreeBets must be used within 7 days of them being credited to your account. FreeBets do not count towards qualifying for any other promotional offers, unless otherwise specifically stated in the terms & conditions of such promotional offer.
📂 Mixed RB Signals from Seattle
Pete Carroll said he expects Kenneth Walker III and DeeJay Dallas to play this weekend against the Chiefs, but they made a move on Friday that creates some doubt.
The Seahawks added RBs Wayne Gallman AND Godwin Igwebuike to the active roster with Ken Walker III and DeeJay Dallas questionable for tomorrow.
Reports on Walker seem optimistic, but 2 RB promotions is an eye opener. We'll keep an eye on that leading up to the 1 pm ET start.
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Dec 23, 2022
Luckily, it is an early game, so fantasy managers will have the info needed to act accordingly. If Walker plays, he is a boom-bust RB2. After missing practice all week, we don't know if he will be up to handling a full workload and as 10-point dogs, Seattle might have to abandon the run game early.
If Walker is out, we will likely see a committee with Dallas handling most of the early-down work and Travis Homer taking the passing-down duties. There isn't much to get excited about in that scenario.
📂 More fun weather...
We have two more games that could become problematic in the wind department that fantasy managers will need to monitor closer to kickoff.
If either turns into a scenario where sustained 20-plus mph winds become a reality, we will need to adjust:
📉 Falcons at Ravens
- Drake London falls from WR3 status to WR4 territory
- Mark Andrews falls from TE3 to TE6
- DeMarcus Robinson falls from WR5 territory to must-bench status
📉 Raiders at Steelers
- Davante Adams takes a hit, but he remains a must-start
- Mack Hollins falls from WR4 territory to must-bench status
- George Pickens drops from WR39 to WR50
If you have a kicker from either of these teams, you shouldn't hesitate to make a switch.
📂 Misc. Files
Treylon Burks (concussion) practiced fully all week but remains questionable. However, Malik Willis will start at QB. The rookie QB was limited to only 26 passing attempts in two starts and totaled 55 and 80 yards passing. That is enough to keep Burks out of lineups.
The Brandin Cooks situation is wild, but he is on track to return this weekend.
Brandin Cooks situation is so weird.
First, this says #Texans asked for a 2nd- and 4th-round pick at trade deadline for a 29-year-old WR making $18m. Actual LOL.
Now, he's apparently off tilt, off personal leave and back to playing for a 1-12-1 team.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan)
Dec 23, 2022
🚑 Jalen Hurts is out tomorrow. He could miss Week 17 too.
🥧 Holiday weight gain is real. Hang in there, JJ!!!
📉 The Rams are bad. Could Sean McVay walk away?
👷 The greatest athlete on earth? You can't question the work ethic.
😂 He must have Garrett Wilson on his fantasy team. He wanted Flacco.
🤸 He didn't need a TD celebration. His TD was the celebration...
📈 This rookie-to-rookie connection is growing. Get onboard, now.
🎁 The biggest gifts of the fantasy season. You didn't even need an early pick.
🎰 Another one-year suspension. If you like to gamble, don't work for the NFL.
When playing DFS, we want to correlate our lineups because it means we have to get fewer things right. Tournaments have such top-heavy payout structures that when you are right, you want to be right in a big way. That’s where stacking teams and games come into play. Today, Eliot shares his favorite game to stack...
Happy Holidays from my family to yours. As we prepare for a Saturday main slate on Christmas Eve, six of 10 games could be played in a winter wonderland. Only three games have a total above 45, while four are below 39, including the lowest NFL total in 15 years between the Saints and Browns at between 31.5 and 32.
One game that might be cold but unlikely to be low-scoring is the Seahawks vs. Chiefs, which sits as the highest total on the slate at 49.5. The Chiefs are the league's top offense averaging the most points, yards, and passing yards, while the Seahawks rank 7th in points and first in completion percentage.
Geno Smith has a juicy matchup against a Chiefs defense that struggles to stop opposing QBs, allowing 22 fantasy points per game.
As a 10-point underdog, Smith should be forced to throw, something Chiefs opponents have done at the fifth-highest rate. With a price tag of $5,800, Smith has a QB10 sticker price, while we have him ranked as the QB5 on the main slate. That savings and upside allow you to get other studs in your lineup from this game.
One of those studs is DK Metcalf, who is set to dominate with no Tyler Lockett this week. Metcalf has a 27% target share and double-digit targets in the last four games, and he might be Smith's first, second and third read on Saturday. In his only career game without Lockett, he saw 12 targets.
On the other side of the ball, no RB in football has been hotter than Jerick McKinnon, who has put up back-to-back RB1 overall weeks. (More on McKinnon below)
With 16 targets in that time span, McKinnon has been dominating the usage we covet. Playing 80% of third down and red zone snaps with 66% of the two-minute drills, McKinnon is getting RB1 usage and comes in with an RB2 price tag of just $5,900. Now he gets a Seahawks defense that ranks 31st in DVP against RBs.
At WR, JuJu Smith-Schuster is the player I want to target. Leading the team in targets since returning from his injury, Juju has averaged 19 points per game over his last six healthy games. This week the veteran WR takes on a Seahawks team that runs zone the third-most (76%). The slot WR has historically been better against zone coverage, and his target rate increases from 17% to 22% when facing zone.
Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what Jordan came up with for this week... All odds via BetMGM.
🎄 Jerick McKinnon over 25.5 Receiving Yards
The back-to-back fantasy RB1 is simply on fire right now. Over the past two weeks, Jerick McKinnon has been crushing expectations and more than likely has launched his fantasy managers into the hunt for a championship.
Over that 2 week span, McKinnon’s utilization has moved into a borderline elite category, and the production has followed, posting receiving totals of 112 and 70 yards in Weeks 14 and 15, respectively.
In Week 15, he notched a 62% snap share(matching his season high), a 48% route participation, paired with a massive 26% targets per route run. He’s peaking at the right time for the Chiefs, and we should be targeting this line until the books adjust to his new role.
The Fantasy Life projections have him set for 29.6 receiving yards, giving this bet a 2.8% edge on our player prop tool.
Every Weekend, we'll highlight interesting matchups you should be aware of before setting your lineup. Take it away, Kevin...
🎁 JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. SEA
While the Christmas season is the season of giving, it seems like the fantasy gods have been doing more “taketh away” than “giveth”. Luckily, one big gift wrapped in red and yellow wrapping paper will be a hit this holiday (and fantasy) season: JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Smith-Schuster was knocked out of Week 10 with a concussion, didn’t play in Week 11, and was limited in Weeks 12 and 13.
In the last two weeks, all JuJu has done is put up WR6 and WR18 performances with double-digit targets in each game. He has one of the highest floors and gets a Seahawks defense that is fourth-best in fantasy points allowed to fantasy WRs, but the slot and Coby Bryant’s coverage are where they are the most susceptible.
Also, I think that ranking is a bit suspect, as they missed a lot of elite WRs this season, including games against the Lions minus Amon-Ra St. Brown, the Rams minus Cooper Kupp, the first Cardinals game without DeAndre Hopkins, plus it helps when you get to face QBs like John Wolford, Andy Dalton, Sam Darnold, Marcus Mariota, and Russell Wilson.
In the second-highest game total of the Week 16 slate per BetMGM at 49.5 points, there’s a ton of opportunity for the Chiefs and Seahawks to provide fantasy goodness. Plus, you know, the whole “Patrick Mahomes, the presumptive league MVP throwing him the ball” thing. That’s #good, per sources.
Smith-Schuster is a WR1 that will help your squad hitch a sleigh ride to the fantasy championships!
