In todayâs Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Moby:
Calvin Ridley to the Titans, Mike Williams released
Not again, Arthur SmithâŚ
RBs under the microscope: Zamir White RB1 SZN? MaybeâŚ
Itâs 3/14. Take it away, Peter OverzetâŚ
Free Agency technically didnât start until 4 pm yesterdayâdonât forget to let everyone know that, by the wayâbut the majority of the dust had settled well before then.
Wednesday wasnât without surprises, though. Two big WR question marks came into focus, including a move no one saw coming:
đ¤ Calvin Ridley Stuns Everyone
Heading into yesterday evening, it seemed like one of two things were possible with Calvin Ridleyâs free agency:
Williams immediately becomes one of the top available WRs, though heâll have to contend with an exciting rookie crop.
I like Ianâs shortlist. I think my favorite would be the Bills, where heâd be a logical upgrade on Gabe Davis.
đStock Picks from Legendary Hedge Fund Analysts...
Unveiling 1,080% Returns!
Moby leverages the expertise of former hedge fund analysts to deliver clear, jargon-free market analysis.
This approach demystifies investing, making it more approachable for beginners and those seeking a straightforward experience. The platform's user-friendly interface further enhances accessibility, making it easy for users to navigate and extract valuable insights.
Moby's strategic insights have led to significant outperformance against competitors and the S&P 500, boasting gains of 300% and 400% respectively in 2022 and 2023.
These impressive results underscore Moby's effectiveness in identifying high-growth potential stocks, similar to early predictions of Tesla's success.
Which veteran RBs could see the biggest shifts in value in 2024? Today, Chris dives into the RBs that havenât moved in free agency, but could see their value move in the market after the first wave of signings and trades.
Thereâs no real mystery to determining if an RB has fantasy value.
We know what it takes for them to score points.
Earning touches is the obvious goal. But even that simplistic idea requires context. Think about it. A carry from the 50-yard line offers more potential than a rush from the five. So, rushers who earn those (along with early-down work, not just short-yardage specialists) automatically gain consideration. And with PPR scoring, RBs who run routes accumulate targets are solid staples of any roster.
Again, we know âwhatâ to look for in drafts. So, with free agency ongoing and the draft ahead of us, identifying the rushers with the most to gain (or lose) over the next couple months will help us set market expectations.
đ James Cook, Bills
James Cook was the RB12 in PPR scoring.
But it didnât feel like it.
He had the fewest top-12 finishes of any of the RB1s. However, he had peaks of efficiency to smooth over his lack of opportunity. Of the 27 RBs with more than 40.0% of their teamâs carries, Cookâs analytical profile sticks out.
Rushing Success Rate: 7th
EPA per Rush: 9th
Adjusted Yards after Contact per Carry: 14th
Yards per Route Run: 3rd
At or above average in almost every metric? Great! However, one metric in which he lagged behind his RB1 peers was earning carries.
Only Bijan Robinson had a lower rate of his teamâs carries than Cook. And we know how much of a headache (pardon the pun) the Falconsâ RB was at times.
Additionally, the presence of Latavius Murray decimated any shot at Cook working on his short-yardage skills. Murray took 46.0% of the carries with three or fewer yards to go compared to Cookâs 34.0%. Plus, both RBs had their QB to contend with once the Bills got into scoring position.
Josh Allen will always be a factor. But Murray is looking for his seventh team to join in free agency. Thereâs no question Cook can be a high-end rusher and create explosives as a receiver. If Buffalo doesnât add another short-yardage specialist, Cookâs red-zone opportunities should increase, making his 2023 results easier to replicate in 2024.
đ´ââ ď¸ Zamir White, Raiders
Josh Jacobs is now taking handoffs from Jordan Love.
With this move, hereâs a look at the Jacobs-sized hole in the offense with his departure.
Early-Down: 83.6%
Short-Yardage: 92.0%
Routes per Team Dropback: 53.0%
Inside the 5: 51.0.%
Prior to missing the final four games of the regular season, Jacobs was second in total touches (270) of any RB. Ameer Abdullah (remember him?) only had a claim to the long-down-and-distance and two-minute snaps. All of which left Zamir White in a contingency role.
By Week 14, the former Georgia Bulldog had 26 touches. His inability to wedge himself into Jacobsâs workload was a concern after sitting behind the then-All-Pro rusher. However, once Jacobs got injured, Whiteâs workload was hard to distinguish from Jacobsâs.
HC Antonio Pierce treated White like an RB1. But the Raidersâ definition of an RB1 may be changing as we head into 2024.
Both Pierce and GM Tom Telesco have indicated they want to bring Jacobs back after the team franchise tagged him ahead of the â22 season. The RB market for top earners like Jacobs, Austin Ekeler, and Saquon Barkley may take some time to settle, creating some uncertainty in Whiteâs potential value for next season. And the front officeâs team-building philosophy also poses a challenge.
Telesco noted wanting two or three backs to carry the load. As a result, getting aggressive on White would be an ill-advised move until we get through the draft.
The ultimate fantasy football and sports betting experience. Expert rankings, projections, betting models, customized tools, league sync and so much more!