Do fantasy managers also get a bye week? Asking for a friend…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Constant Contact:
- A WR to save us from the Bye-mageddon
- Rankings Roundtable: Time to let James…Cook? (Sorry)
- QUICK HITTER: Injury updates (Spoiler: everyone’s hurt!)
- WELCOME to Jahmyr Gibbs week!
- The Walkthrough: Kerrane breaks down the Lions’ passing game
- Fantasy Bingo: A fantasy format I didn’t have on my bingo card…
- It’s 10/21. Take it away, Chris Allen…
To be fair, the league did try to warn us about this Week 7 Bye-mageddon.
In August, we knew we’d be without high-end WR options like Ja’Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb. But through the chaos of the regular season, we got a few more out this week, too:
- Adam Thielen: (current PPR rank) WR3
- Nico Collins: WR9
- Garrett Wilson: WR15
It’s bad enough we have to sort through the Rams’ backfield puzzle and see how much of the game plan Kyle Shanahan is leaving in for Christian McCaffrey ahead of Monday night. And now we have multiple top-24 receivers out to test our roster management skills. But with this guy coming off of his bye, we may have a savior for Week 7.
🚀 Christian Watson, Packers
After a pedestrian statline in his Week 4 return from injury (4-25-1), all it took was one play for us to believe Christian Watson was back.
It was fair to expect a slow start for the Packers’ WR1 since he had spent the first three weeks of the season sidelined with a hamstring injury. And a W5 matchup against the Raiders, who had already given up big games to deep threats like Gabe Davis (7-92-1) and Kendrick Bourne (11-89-0), looked like an easy path for Watson to reclaim his spot atop the depth chart.
However, it wasn’t just that Watson was already reconnecting with Jordan Love on deep attempts. Of course, we’ll take those, but Watson’s peripherals point to a big game coming for the sophomore receiver:
- Route Rate: 46.3% (Week 4), 85.3% (Week 5)
- Target Share: 11.8%, 24.1%
- TPRR: 21.1%, 24.1%
- Air Yard Share: 12.3%, 72.8%
And now, Watson, with an extra week of rest, gets to face a Denver defense that’s allowed a top-12 pass-catcher in four of six games this season. WRs with a target share of over 20% are AVERAGING 19.5 PPR points against the Broncos’ secondary.
Fantasy managers with Watson can comfortably slide him into their WR1 slot for Sunday. And for those looking for last-minute relief, options like Curtis Samuel and Jalin Hyatt have enough upside to keep your roster afloat as we try and navigate through a heavy week of byes.
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Debating between two guys on your roster? Need someone to break the tie for you? Matthew Freedman, Dwain McFarland, and Ian Hartitiz dove deep into their rankings to find a few players they’re willing to push into their starting lineup for Week 7.
It’s Bye-mageddon.
It’s…I don’t know what else to call it.
All I do know is there’s a horde of players I really need to start but can’t because they’re not playing this weekend. And it’s not like the guys available have enticing matchups to target.
Week 7 features just three games, with Vegas totals over 45 points, and four backup QBs will take the field for their respective franchises. So it looks bleak across the board for even the best players in our starting lineups. But we’ve got the analysis you need to help you make the right decisions.
Our rankings squad got together again to find a few players they’re higher or lower on relative to consensus. So if you’re having questions about setting your lineup for Week 7 or looking for that one guy that might give you the push you need to get a W, check out their notes before kickoff.
👩🍳 RB – James Cook (BUF) vs. NE
Let James cook? (Sorry).
Ultimately, Cook has been fine. His average of 4.8 yards per carry ranks 14th among 53 qualified backs, while his 14.7% explosive run-play rate is good for the 10th-highest mark at the position.
The main problems have been:
Lack of a goal line role: Cook has just two carries inside the five-yard line this season, while Josh Allen (2), Damien Harris (2) and Latavius Murray (6) have combined for 10.
Pass-game work: Cook's 17 targets on the season are tied for just the 18th-highest mark at the position. His average of 1.21 yards per route run ranks 10th, but Josh Allen’s willingness to scramble and Murray’s involvement as a pass-blocker haven’t helped.
The likely absence of Harris (neck/head) condenses this backfield to just two parties for the time being; I like Cook’s chances of flirting with an upper-end outcome against this banged-up Patriots defense, but hopeful RB1 heights look shakier than ever without the benefit of a featured role.
- Ian
😞 RB – Rachaad White (Buccaneers) vs. Falcons
As my fine colleague Ian Hartitz outlined, White is one of the least efficient backs in the NFL, and the Tampa Bay offensive line isn’t doing him any favors. No back in the league averages fewer yards before contact (0.5).
While those flaws have kept White from climbing too far in the weekly ranks, we have always been able to fall back on his utilization to keep him in the low-end RB2 conversation. However, we have seen Ke’Shawn Vaughn take on a more significant role over the past two games.
Coming out of the bye week, White saw his lowest opportunity total of the season with 11 combined attempts and targets. It is possible that this usage downturn was just a blip on the radar, but White is a player who can’t afford to lose any touches – he has been a low-end RB2, even with elite utilization. Anything less puts him into RB3 territory.
In a week where injuries and byes are ravaging lineups, White remains a mid-range RB2 option, but if you have depth, he isn’t a must-start. White ranks eight spots below consensus for me in Week 7.
- Dwain
Who Else Does the Team Like for Week 7?
Finding the right player stacks can be the key to building a profitable roster in DFS. If you want to get the jump on this weekend, James McCool from Paydirt DFS has the data to guide you for Week 7.
🥇 Popular option: Los Angeles Chargers
📜 Facts:
In week 6, Joshua Palmer and Keenan Allen both had strong utilization with 100% and 98% of the snaps, respectively, and a combined 85% of the team air yards on 33% of the total targets, and we can expect more of that this week.
While a handful of the numbers are similar for Justin Herbert, he is technically having his best season of his young career, with slightly lowered volume but improvements in success rate (9.9%), QBR (37.8, career high), and Average Net Yards per Attempt (6.96, career high).
While the Chiefs have the higher team total, they don’t have nearly as consolidated a target tree, with Travis Kelce the best target at just a 26% target share and 10 other receivers having some amount of targets come their way, which makes them a harder side to stack in GPPs.
📊 Stack info (DraftKings)
💰 Salary and projections:
- Combo 1 (Herbert/Allen/Palmer): This combination is the most expensive at $21,400 and has the highest Median score of 51.3.
- Combo 2 (Herbert/Allen/Everett): Moderately priced at $20,400 with a Median score of 47.47.
- Combo 3 (Herbert/Palmer/Everett): Least expensive at $16,600, with a Median score close to Combo 2 at 37.5.
According to the projections, Combo 3 provides the best efficiency in terms of cost, but Combo 1 has the highest performance potential.
The Chargers offer robust options through multiple price points, though the best duo is clearly Allen and Palmer if you can afford the salary.
🧮 Finish percentiles
- Combo 1 (Herbert/Allen/Palmer): Leads with an 8.76% Top Finish and a robust 72.64% 2x%.
- Combo 2 (Herbert/Allen/Everett): 3.48% Top Finish with a solid 67.72% 2x%.
- Combo 3 (Herbert/Palmer/Everett): Slightly better Top Finish than Combo 2 at 0.04% and a high 64.76% 2x%.
🔥 Combo 1: Premium Choice with Strong Projections
This combination offers both top-tier upside and efficiency. With the highest Median score and top finish potential, this is a go-to for those willing to invest in premium choices with consistent scoring.
🤷♂️ Combo 2: Mid-Tier with Balanced Potential
Though it's moderately priced, its efficiency isn't as striking. The upside is limited, but it's a reasonable choice for a balanced approach.
👎 Combo 3: Value Pick with Decent Efficiency
It’s the least expensive, yet its Median score lags behind the other combos. However, its 2x% is quite high, making it a solid contrarian or budget pick.
The Chargers have one of the best game environments on the slate and are priced in a spot that makes them accessible. Likewise, the way their target tree is built out allows for stacking upside, whereas the Chiefs’ target tree is much more spread out. Because of the good projections, accessible price, and consolidated target tree, the Chargers will be a high upside stack with a lot of ownership.
But What About the Rams As a Value Option?
📝 Week 7 Streamers. Pass catchers on the rise. Underdog Pick’em Plays. We have all the notes you need for Week 7.
💥 HC Dan Campbell talks about Jahmyr Gibbs' workload for Week 7. Sounds like an RB1 to me.
🙏 An RB and a WR poised to break out. Don’t panic, regression can be good, too.
📈 Browns QB1 gets in a full practice on Friday. Cleveland looks dangerous on both sides of the ball now.
🍿 The crew gets together with John Daigle to talk Week 7 matchups. Weather takes, DFS notes, the show had it all!
🤞HC Eberflus gives a small update on Justin Fields. Maybe he'll be back soon.
😬 Zach Evans RB1 Week? Sean McVay has a different thought about the Rams' backfield.
😫 A deep dive into Quentin Johnston's slow start. Sounds like he still has a ways to go.
👀 Matthew Berry gives his thoughts on the Jacksonville WRs. Hang in there, Calvin Ridley managers.
🧳 Jerry Jeudy might be on the move. Where do you think he ends up?
An all-encompassing Week 7 preview breaking down EVERY game with an array of advanced analytics as well as devoted film analysis from a champion expert in the field who just so happens to also be a rather great writer — is that something you might be interested in? Well, good, because Legendary Upside founder and Fantasy Life partner Pat Kerrane is here to spread the good word ahead of Week 7…
With David Montgomery expected to miss Week 7, the Lions will need to lean on Jared Goff, as they did in their win over the Buccaneers. Goff excelled in that matchup but will be facing a much more difficult Ravens defense that ranks fourth in EPA allowed per dropback and third in dropback success rate.
But Goff actually looks like a good fit for this difficult matchup. The Ravens blitz frequently, but Goff is used to facing the blitz and has held up decently well against it. Goff has also been highly consistent and should be able to handle the Ravens' excellent secondary fairly well.
Goff's can make mistakes under pressure, but the Lions' offensive line looks capable of holding up against an above-average Ravens pass rush. With the game plan falling on his shoulders, Goff should deliver.
And although the Ravens are allowing explosive plays at the league’s lowest rate, they’ll need to be on guard against an offense that is ramping up Jameson Williams.
Williams only ran a route on 19% of dropbacks against the Buccaneers, down from 50% against the Panthers. He’s a very risky fantasy play because he won’t be on the field a ton. But when he’s running routes, he creates serious big play risk for the Ravens' defense. His fantasy impact will be tough to count on, but he should have a real-life impact on this matchup. Williams saw three targets against the Buccaneers with an average depth of 23.3 yards. All three were first-read looks—meaning the Lions were dialing up deep shots for him despite his limited snaps.
Williams’ role should help open things up underneath for Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. Both St. Brown (14) and LaPorta (11) feasted on targets against the Buccaneers, and we could see a similar dynamic this week.
Even on limited passing volume, St. Brown looks like a WR1. He’s seeing an elite 22% first-read target rate and 27% TPRR. He’s going to get his targets. And despite a shallow 7.7 aDOT, St. Brown is seeing a lot of valuable over-the-middle opportunities. The third-year star ranks 85th percentile in over-the-middle targets traveling 10+ air yards.
Sam LaPorta’s opportunity looks less locked in. He’s earning an elite 25% TPRR but with a good-not-great 15% first-read target rate. If Goff has time to work through his progressions, LaPorta should see plenty of targets again this week. But if the Ravens disrupt things with their solid pass rush and willingness to blitz, LaPorta’s target rate could overstate his involvement in this outing. However, given the state of TE, it’s hard to imagine you have a better option than the star rookie.
Check Out More from Kerrane In This Week’s Walkthrough!
Of course, we all like fantasy football. And who doesn’t like to hang out and play a few rounds of bingo? Well, now you can do both! Our friends over at Rival Fantasy have a new format for fantasy gamers to check out, and Geoff has some plays to start you off with a winning strategy.
If you’re new to Rival Fantasy, a quick overview:
“A bingo card costs $1 and is played on a 5×5 grid with 25 random achievements, such as 3 Total TDs, >50 Rushing Yards, and many more. If no one wins, the jackpot rolls over...
… Build a roster of players to unlock these achievements and win by getting five in a row or a corner of four”
Essentially, for every Bingo card we create, we are building a no-salary restriction roster (QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, K, FLEX) and trying to hit on an array of achievements that are unknown before lock. Some can be simple (>10 rush attempts) and some difficult (3+ receiving TDs from an RB), but we need to chase UPSIDE to give ourselves the best chance of cashing in on a share of the jackpot.
Let’s dive into some Week 7 plays.
🧀 QB-WR stack: Jordan Love and Christian Watson
I really like pairing these two. Love has good rushing upside for QB achievements (50+ rush yards, QB rush TD), while Watson had three 100+ yard games and a 3 TD performance in 2022. Both are fully capable of going nuclear against the Broncos – who are the worst coverage unit (via PFF) in the NFL.
😤 RB: Jonathan Taylor, Kenneth Walker
We know Taylor’s upside. Even in a down year (2022), he went for over 140 rush yards and a TD on two occasions. Taylor took 53% of the rush attempts last week and is headed towards a larger role.
Walker is in a dream spot. The Cardinals’ defense is cratering and allowed 150+ yards and a TD to unheralded Kyren Williams last week. Walker has already had a handful of two-TD games and went for over 150 yards rushing in a game last season.
💣 WR: Gabe Davis
Davis has the kind of ballistic upside we like in formats like this. He has gone for 100+ yards and a TD three times in the regular season since the start of 2022. With the Bills’ defense banged up, more shootouts could also be ahead for Buffalo.
💪 TE: Mark Andrews
Andrews plays the Lions, who have allowed the fifth most yards and third most receptions to opposing TEs – and are without their starting safety in Chauncy Gardner-Johnson. Andrews has seen better downfield targeting the last few weeks and is one of a few TEs that have true 100+ yards and a TD ability.
Check Out Fantasy Bingo At Rival Fantasy Today!
