🤩 A WR With High-End Upside

Live. Laugh. Love QBs…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Poker Now:

QB tunnel vision

Steelers: QB order released, kind of

Rookie Super Model: 100th percentile?!?

It's 4/5. Take it away, Cooterdoodle...

There’s been a lot of speculation surrounding QBs this offseason. And the questions are endless.

Will Kirk Cousins save Kyle Pitts & Co.?

Can CJ Stroud take the three-headed WR monster to a Super Bowl?

Will Chicago’s 1.01 pick in the 2024 draft elevate their offense (in ways that their 1.11 from 2021 couldn’t)?

Answers? I don’t got ‘em. But I do have QB tunnel vision.

😵 QB Tunnel Vision

We have been absolutely gridlocked into a QB-heavy point of view since the Achilles’ injury heard round the world during Aaron Rodgers’ first drive of Week 1 back at the start of 2023. And rightfully so.

The entire position has felt like a never-ending carousel of badness. Bad plays, bad boys, bad luck, and even a few bad backups. 

But our collective QB obsession, as of late, has been heavily turned towards the future. While the NFL draft and everything to come is exciting, there’s still plenty to learn from the play calling of the past.

I hate to say it, but we’ve got a case of tunnel vision, baby. And it’s making us nervous.

🚨 Panic Mode?

With a total of 66 (3 more would’ve been nice) QBs clocking in as NFL starters in 2023, we were in a fantasy football frenzy. Lineups were churning. Waivers were burning. We couldn’t keep up!

If you drafted a starting QB that started every game… Damn it felt good, didn’t it?

But with so many rotations within the same position, we’ve come to believe that QB is a very critical “get it right on draft day” pick.

But this carousel isn’t an entirely new trend.

Starting NFL quarterbacks per season:

2023: 66

2022: 68

2021: 62

And whether these numbers are influenced in the long-term by the additional regular season games, or by a combination of other factors, it still begs the question:

How do we use this information for fantasy football purposes?

👓 See the Bigger Picture

While this doesn’t apply solely to the QB position, our main safeguard to make it through the offseason unscathed will be to triangulate the data.

In other words, we need to gobble up as much information as we can to avoid getting tunnel vision. Rookies (more on that below), vets, strength of schedule, coaching changes, ADP, cryptic WR tweets… All of it.

It’s why we’ve cultivated a team of analysts who have been developing a variety of tools and rankings here. You need to gobble up the past, the present, and the future to win that championship.

But you know that already, don’t you? It’s why you’re here…

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🤔 The Chargers are a dream landing spot for rookie RBs…but which RB fits best?

📺 In any other year, would Rome Odunze be the rookie WR1? Let’s dive in.

😬 A slight dig at Diggs? Can’t we all just get along?

🤯 The Steelers QB pecking order is in… At least jersey-wise. 

7️⃣ Seven years already? What a NICE draft pick.

📝 Rashee Rice update. His lawyer shares details.

💼 The 1.01 is packed and ready! He only has one trip to take.

🖋️ Ohhh, Stefon Diggs did some negotiating. What a deal.

👶 No one is safe from the mouths of babes. Not even a 49er.

Fantasy Life head of analytics Dwain “The Rock” McFarland has been in the lab GRINDING to evaluate the incoming class of rookie WRs. Many would simply put together a model of sorts to accomplish this task, but Dwain? That wouldn’t be nearly… super enough.

Presenting: Fantasy Life’s Rookie WR Super Model. 

🥇 Tier 1 – Superstar Traits With High-End WR1 Upside

💪 Marvin Harrison Jr. | Ohio State

WR Super Model: 100th percentile

Age: 22.1

Height: 6’3”

Weight: 209

📜 Pedigree

Program Quality Index: 84th percentile

NFL Mock Drafts: Pick 4, Round 1

247 Recruit Player Rating: 4 of 5 stars

Harrison is arguably the most well-known WR prospect of the last decade. He is the son of an NFL Hall of Famer and was in the national spotlight almost every Saturday, playing at Ohio State.

😤 Production

Adjusted Career RYPTPA Index: 70th percentile

Career Total TDs Per Game Index: 81st percentile

Career Targeted QB Rating Index: 77th percentile

Harrison played in 12 games as a true freshman, but his route participation was limited to 28%, with Wilson, Olave and Smith-Njigba providing stiff competition. However, at 20, he stepped into a full-time role in his sophomore campaign, and the production followed. 

That year, he broke out with a whopping 30% target share—the highest mark from any Buckeye since 2014—and registered an elite 3.08 receiving yards per team pass attempt (RYPTPA). In his age-21 season, Harrison topped those tallies with a 31% target share and 3.18 RYPTPA.

🔮 Fantasy Outlook: Hit Rates

Underdog ADP: WR10, Round 2

Rookie Dynasty ADP: WR1, Pick 1

Harrison has the highest score in the history of the WR Super Model if we include his expected NFL Draft capital. He will surpass Chase’s old high score if he goes fourth overall.

🏋️‍♂️ Malik Nabers | LSU

WR Super Model: 95th percentile

Age: 21.1

Height: 6’0”

Weight: 200

📜 Pedigree

Program Quality Index: 80th percentile

NFL Mock Drafts: Pick 5, Round 1

247 Recruit Player Rating: 4 of 5 stars

Nabers doesn’t come with the same pent-up anticipation as Harrison, but he is gaining steam as we get closer to the draft. Some NFL Draft and fantasy analysts have even moved Nabers to the WR1 position in their rankings. While some prospect fatigue is occurring with Harrison, Nabers’ profile has merit.

😤 Production

Adjusted Career RYPTPA Index: 76th percentile

Career Total TDs Per Game Index: 51st percentile

Career Targeted QB Rating Index: 71st percentile

Nabers ranks No. 1 in the 2024 class for adjusted career RYPTPA, a metric that accounts for age, aDOT, alignment, QB play, and quality of teammates (target competition). It is the most robust production measurement in our database, and no other production metric carries as much signal for future fantasy points.

The 21-year-old WR carved out a 52% route participation as an 18-year-old freshman, and while he didn’t post jaw-dropping RYPTPA (1.18), he made a substantial impact on a per-route basis. His 1.95 yards per route run (YPRR) was 0.40 above expectation for his age. As a sophomore, Nabers upped his RYPTPA to 2.12 and then erupted as a junior, posting a mark of 3.81.

🔮 Fantasy Outlook: Hit Rates

Underdog ADP: WR23, Round 3

Rookie Dynasty ADP: WR1, Pick 2

When you add everything together, Nabers grades out close to Harrison in the Super Model, including draft capital. He is the No. 3 graded prospect since 2018. 

A Tier 2 WR that was SO CLOSE to Tier 1

 

You can feel his energy & excitement. It’s palpable, and contagious

— Anthony Cover 1 (@Pro__Ant) 
Apr 4, 2024

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