👀 All Eyes On One Ankle

The Bills are only mad that the Bengals took Chase 5th overall because they took Sammy Watkins 4th...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Pristine Auction:

• A big update on Mahomes
• Conference Championship Weekend: Rankings & Tiers
• Could we see a RB in the first round of the draft?
• Bets From the Group Chat. A spicy anytime TD bet
  
• A future #1 WR?
• It's 1/26. Take it away, Peter Overzet.

Did I jump the gun?

On Monday, I was pretty concerned about Patrick Mahomes' high ankle sprain. He could barely move during the second half of their Divisional Round game against the Jags, and a typical recovery time for this sprain is somewhere between 15-45 days.

The betting markets reacted in parallel with this sentiment as the line moved from Chiefs -1.5 all the way to Bengals -1.5.

I thought for sure he wouldn't practice for most of the week, but not only did he practice on Wednesday, BUT HE PRACTICED IN FULL:

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes was a full participant in practice today.

— Field Yates (@FieldYates)
Jan 25, 2023

Um, what? Excuse me? How is that even possible?

This man is not human.

My first reaction was to not believe it, but sure enough, watch the footage. He looks to be moving just fine to me, and he certainly doesn't seem to be concerned:

An update from @PatrickMahomes:

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs)
Jan 25, 2023

It is interesting to note that despite the positive practice reports, the line is still Bengals -1 everywhere:

Most sharps have indicated that if Mahomes were fully healthy, this line would be somewhere in the ballpark of Chiefs -3, which means the market is currently baking in a full 4-point swing due to his ankle.

I'm still maintaining my conviction that the Bengals are the sharp side here, but it's impossible to argue that things aren't trending in the right direction for Mahomes and the Chiefs.

If you'd like to tail me on Underdog, I'm taking the higher on Joe Burrow's passing yardage prop and the lower on Mahomes:

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Wide Receiver

🥇 Tier 1 – Ja'Marr Chase

Chase is ascending to a new level this season, distancing himself from the rest of the Bengals receiving corps as the clear-cut No. 1.

Chase is the most-targeted Bengal and is Joe Burrow’s favorite option in critical situations like end zone targets (35%) and third/fourth down situations (26%).

Not only do the Chiefs allow the most fantasy receiving points per game (59.3), but three of their four primary coverage schemes have been good to Chase. Kansas City utilizes Cover 2, Quarters, Cover 1 and Cover 3 on 71% of their plays, with things pretty evenly spread out.

Cover 2 has been a problem for Chase with a 14% TPRR, but he has destroyed Quarters (28%), Cover 1 (35%) and Cover 3 (28%).

You didn’t need to know all of that to know Chase deserves the No. 1 slot in the ranks because great WRs are good against most coverages.

🥇 Tier 1 – DeVonta Smith

Smith’s 28% target share in Year 2 – despite playing opposite of A.J. Brown – is an amazing accomplishment. Since 2011, no other WR duo has delivered two 28%-target share earners. The next closest duo was in 2014, with Andre Johnson (31%) and DeAndre Hopkins (25%).

This weekend, Smith faces a 49ers unit allowing the second-most receiving fantasy points per game (54.2) in non-overtime play of the four remaining teams. Furthermore, San Francisco primarily utilizes zone coverage, specializing in Cover 3 (39%), Quarters (16%) and Cover 2 (14%). They mix in Cover 1 (15%) as their primary man defense.

Per PFF data, Smith performs the most consistent across all four of those coverage concepts, with a top-two TPRR in each category for the Eagles.

Overall, the zone-heavy approach by the 49ers will cause the Eagles to spread the ball around more, but Smith is the favorite to lead the way on Sunday. No disrespect meant to Brown; he could still come through in a big way, but we are splitting hairs between two high-end talents.

Smith ranks one spot ahead of A.J. Brown as the No. 2 WR on the slate.

🥇 Tier 2 – Deebo Samuel

Samuel missed practice on Wednesday, but Kyle Shanahan said he expects the WR to play on Sunday. San Francisco will need the run-after-catch monster this weekend to compete with an Eagles team that allows the fewest points per game (48.1) in the receiving department.

Philadelphia utilizes Cover 3 (29%), Quarters (23%) and Cover 1 (20%) as their primary coverages. Against man (Cover 1), Brandon Aiyuk is the go-to option (28% TPRR), with Samuel taking a back seat (14%), but against Quarters and Cover 3, Deebo is the king.

Samuel and McCaffrey have battled for some of the same underneath targets, but that hasn’t been an issue against these coverages – in their games together the TPRR rates are the same.

The fourth-year WR hasn’t been able to reproduce his 2022 campaign, but he has three games of 22-plus points, and the coverage matchup against the Eagles could lend itself to a blowup opportunity.

Samuel is the top Tier 2 WR and the WR4 overall as long as he is healthy.

🔮 Could we see a RB in the first round of the NFL draft? Hmmm.

🤔 Should the Jets bring in another veteran QB? It's worked in the past!

🚨 Do not ignore this WR in 2023 Fantasy Drafts. His upside is untapped.

😤 The WR who wants the damn ball. But he's not a diva.

🚑 3 key 49ers didn't practice yesterday. Hopefully just a rest day.

👿 The Bills GM is taking some flack for a quote about Ja'Marr Chase. Out of line, or nah?

✂️ Could Leonard Fournette be cut? Sounds like it's on the table.

Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what Geoff came up with for this week...All odds via BetMGM

💰 Dallas Goedert under 4.5 receptions

Even against a mediocre team, asking Goedert to go over this total seems like a tall order. The Eagles TE received more than six targets in a game just three times this season and has two top-tier WRs in DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown, as well as a run-first quarterback in Jalen Hurts, to compete with for touches. 

While Goedert did manage six catches last week, the 49ers are better at locking down underneath receivers. They held Dalton Schultz to a 50% conversion rate last week, as he needed a hefty ten targets just to record five receptions. 

With the Eagles favored, and their WRs in better matchups, the volume Schultz got last week against this defense most likely won’t be there for Goedert. 

An under on his 4.5 reception line makes for a solid addition to betting cards this week.

💰 Isiah Pacheco over 11.5 carries

Pacheco was ultra-efficient last week for the Chiefs, racking up 95 yards on 12 carries. Given Patrick Mahomes’ injury status, it’s hard to see Kansas City reducing Pacheco’s touches or involvement this week as they look for ways to reduce their quarterback’s workload. 

While the Chiefs ranked out with the eighth-highest pass play percentage this season, expect them to be more stubborn about mixing in the run in this game, even if they are behind. 

Fantasy Life has Pachecho projected for 14.3 total carries in this game making the over on his current 11.5 total carries prop one of the strongest edges of the week. The rookie rushed the ball 14-times against the Bengals in their Week 13 meeting, went over on this total in eight of his last 10-games, and should be heavily involved for Kansas City in this game once again.

💰 Trenton Irwin anytime TD +600

Irwin was a low-key TD machine during the regular season, with a 17% TD rate over 23 targets. His four receiving TDs tied for fourth on the team, just one behind near every-down WR Tyler Boyd. 

The 27-year-old had five red-zone targets over the Bengals' last nine games, which tied him with both Boyd and Tee Higgins in that category. He’ll also be taking on a Chiefs defense with a lot of young corners who allowed 22 TDs to opposing WRs this season – with seven of those TDs coming on red-zone passes (the second-highest number in the league). 

Irwin’s got a tasty +600 odds to score, and with a clear penchant for finding the end zone makes sense in this market if you’re in the mood to chase some low-investment, higher-payout kind of bets.