I hope you bet the over last night...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:
- The Cardinals say bye to Kliff
- Buy/Sell/Hold: Learn to love Zero RB?
- More great Damar Hamlin news
- Fantasy Fixers: The Bears
- Playoff best ball strategy: How to attack the NFC
- It's 1/10. Take it away, Peter Overzet...
The coaching dominos are starting to fall.
The Texans let go of Lovie Smith just hours after he helped torch their path to the first pick in the 2023 NFL draft and then yesterday the Cardinals finally did what they should have done long ago...can Kliff Kingsbury.
Kingsbury was hired in 2019 by the Cardinals and came with lofty aspirations to install his Air Raid concepts from Lubbock in the NFL. Instead, we got something more akin to the Horizontal Raid and only one winning season in 2021.
Many thought the Cardinals would try to ride out the storm after giving Kingsbury a massive contract extension through 2027, but they have wisely sidestepped that sunk cost fallacy.
The Cardinals will be retooling the entire organization this offseason as they also announced that General Manager Steve Keim will be stepping away from his position to focus on his health.
They'll now compete with the Broncos, Colts, Panthers, and Texans to find a head coach who can finally get the most out of what is actually a fairly attractive landing spot with a really talented offensive group.
As for Kliff, he'll be just fine; either as an offensive coordinator or a male model.
The Kliff Kingsbury era fizzled out but we will always have this timeless photo
— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard)
Jan 9, 2023
🤝 On Some Real Sh*t...
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Be more knowledgeable next year, place smarter bets this year.
Whether it's one of the above or both, rest assured, we've got you covered for the playoffs, including:
- Playoff Best Ball Strategy on Underdog
- Betting guides for upcoming playoff games
- Playoff power rankings (Coming tomorrow!)
- Fantasy Fixers: expert analysis on how to fix each team's problems
We’re not that friend that you just hang around in the summer because they have a boat, or in the winter because they have a cabin (it is great having rich friends, though...).
We’re your friend that tells you to never get that haircut again and the one who tells you the person you’re dating sucks.
Let's keep making moves together, we're having too much fun not to.
With the fantasy championships behind us, all we can do is look forward. Let’s talk about fantasy lessons learned from a buy, sell perspective. Take it away, Cooterdoodle…
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🛒BUY
🙄 It’s okay to radically change your draft strategy
Let’s get radical, because change is good. Scary, but good.
Over the last few years, I have fallen into some very comfortable draft habits. I have been very vocal about my disdain for drafting Zero RB and my support for streaming TEs and defenses. After looking back, one could argue that I have been blindly supporting draft strategies that aren’t necessarily the best methods, just because it’s the way that I’ve always done things.
But I’m not playing fantasy just to avoid losing… I want to win it all. Sometimes even if it ain’t broke, you can fix it up. Here’s what I’ve learned:
Data > Habit
In the past, I have been a big supporter of the Late Round TE method. Like… really late rounds. Even though I added a few championship trophies to my name, I grew tired of the constant grind that comes with streaming TEs and the never-ending guessing game. So I changed my strategy in 2022 and went all in on Travis Kelce early.
But this wasn’t just an impulse decision. The data shows a steep drop off for any TE drafted after the first 2-3 elite. So I kept it simple and followed the data. Sure, this draft pic wasn’t 100% guaranteed to work out, but it did. In half-PPR, Kelce scored 100 more fantasy points as the TE1 than TE3 Mark Andrews. The drop-off is steep, my friends. Thank you for everything, Travis <3.
Data > making fun of Zero RB
If you know me like I think you do, you know that I have been feverishly vocal in mocking the Zero RB method for years. It’s been fun and I’ve lucked out many times drafting RBs in the 1st round that didn’t bust. But luck can only carry me so far… I know that my time is coming if I don’t pivot soon. So I’m switching sides and I’m declaring myself Zero RB in ‘23.
Does anyone know if I need to take some kind of test or do a ritual to convert over to Zero RB?
— cooterdoodle (@cooterdoodle)
Jan 2, 2023
For context, of the first 10 WRs to go off the board in my home league, only one was a bust at ADP, finishing 31st at the position (Hi, Deebo Samuel). Even guys affected by long-standing injuries, like Cooper Kupp and Ja’Marr Chase, still finished 23rd and 11th at the position, respectively.
This doesn’t mean you weren’t thrilled if you drafted Austin Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey, but drafting Kamara, Swift, or Taylor in the first round hurt. Really f*cking bad.
Long story short, don’t be afraid to make some changes next season. Assess your drafting habits. Are they old? Are they faulty? And don’t get too comfortable.
📺 Clear your schedule this weekend. Full Wild Card weekend TV schedule.
🙌 Damar Hamlin is back home. Incredible news. Also, he had fun watching the game Sunday.
🎞️ The Commanders inaugural season in 81 seconds. Enjoy.
🚑 Things are looking bleak for the Dolphins. This doesn't help.
📣 The most fantasy-friendly NFL player of all. Austin Ekeler shouts out our guy Pat Kerrane.
🎁 The Eagles fans got AJ Brown a gift. Always open.
The NFL offseason will be in full swing before we know it, with coaching changes, free agency and the NFL draft reshaping the 2023 fantasy football landscape. With that in mind, the Fantasy Life squad is breaking down every NFL team to determine what went wrong in 2022 and identify paths to improvement. LaMarca is here to take on our first project, the Bears...
🐻 Team Summary
The Chicago Bears managed to pull off an extremely difficult task in 2022-23: They finished with the worst record in the league, yet somehow, their future seems brighter than ever. A 10-game losing streak to end the season saw them overtake the Texans for the No. 1 pick, but Justin Fields emerged as a legitimate franchise quarterback. A lot of their losses were very competitive, putting the team in an enviable position heading into the offseason.
Not only does the team have the No. 1 overall pick, but they also secured the Ravens’ second-round selection after trading away Roquan Smith. However, the team moved their own second-round pick in exchange for Chase Claypool, which seems a bit steep now that the Bears know where they’re picking.
The big question surrounding this team is what to do with the top pick, but the team has multiple areas that need to be addressed. Let’s dive in.
🚧 Fantasy Fixer Recommendations
1. Trade the No. 1 Overall Pick (or Justin Fields)
The Bears find themselves in the rare position of having a franchise quarterback and the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. That is exceedingly rare. It happened last year with the Jaguars, but that was also a year where there was no real consensus top quarterback available. Myles Garrett, Jadaveon Clowney, and Eric Fisher have also been non-quarterbacks to go first overall, but 10 of the past 14 No. 1 overall picks have been passers.
That creates a very fortuitous situation for the Bears. The Texans will almost assuredly be taking a quarterback with the No. 2 overall pick, so anyone who wants to have their pick of the signal callers will need to jump above them. There are plenty of teams who fit that description, so it should be a seller’s market.
The last time we saw a team trade the No. 1 overall pick was back in 2016. The Titans traded that pick to the Rams, who used it to select Jared Goff. In exchange, the Titans received the No. 15 pick, two second-round picks, and a third-round pick in 2016, as well as first- and third-round picks in 2017. The Titans also had to send 2016 fourth- and sixth-round picks to the Rams, but overall, that is quite a haul. The Bears would be able to plug a lot of holes with all that draft capital.
The Bears control the draft, trade, and free agent market.
They also have their franchise quarterback.
2023 could get scary.
— dave (@runbackdave)
Jan 8, 2023
Of course, the Bears could also choose for the nuclear option of trading their current quarterback and drafting a new one. We saw the Cardinals employ that strategy in 2019, opting to select Kyler Murray and jettisoning Josh Rosen to Miami. Fields is obviously much more accomplished than Rosen at this point, but it’s not as farfetched of a scenario as you think. Rosen was the No. 10 overall pick in the previous year, so there were plenty of people who thought the Cardinals should build around him at the time.
The fact remains that Fields is a far better fantasy quarterback than he is in real life. The team won just three of his 15 starts this season, and he remains unproven as a starter. His rushing numbers saw a massive increase in the second half of the year – he averaged just under 95 rushing yards in his final 10 games – but he still averaged just 6.64 adjusted yards per attempt as a passer.
Trading away the pick remains the far more likely scenario, but it’s possible that the team falls in love with someone like Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, or Will Levis. You don’t have the opportunity to pick first every year, so they should take a long hard look at each of those passers. If they think that one of them gives the team a better chance of returning to glory, they shouldn’t hesitate to pull the trigger.
We have TWO more Fantasy Fixer Recommendations for the Bears:
- 1.) Load Up On Defense
- 2.) Bring the Offense to the 21st Century
The season-long fantasy season is in the rear view, but Playoff best ball is HEATING up on Underdog Fantasy! One of our resident best ball bros is here to discuss the finer points of playoff strategy. Take it away, Jonathan...
As we think about how to approach the drafts for playoff best ball contests, we need to balance the long-term goal of fielding a full roster in the Super Bowl, with the short-term demands of needing to win a group of 6 or more teams in each round.
Personally, I like to look at a few different probabilities when thinking through ADP values. While the playoff picture was unclear I relied more on the FiveThirtyEight Playoff Probabilities, but now that the playoff field is set, I am more interested in the conference championship and Super Bowl matchup odds.
I like to look at these probabilities and compare them to the ADPs of each team in each conference to try to identify values. The table below shows some of this data for the NFC playoff teams.
🦅 Philadelphia
The top seed in the NFC is predictably the most expensive team to stack, but you can still usually get Jalen Hurts with one of AJ Brown or DeVonta Smith and then grab another Eagle or two with your mid or late round picks.
Dallas Goedert is a value with an ADP of 30.7 while I personally think Miles Sanders is a bit overpriced at an ADP of 22.0 on Underdog Fantasy. Quez Watkins and Kenny Gainwell are solid late-round picks to round out a stack.
🌉 San Francisco
Outside of Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers are not particularly expensive to stack, considering their odds of reaching the Super Bowl.
Drafting Brock Purdy with two of Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, or Brandon Aiyuk in the middle round of drafts seems like great value.
I also like Elijah Mitchell as a late-round pick who provides contingent upside and could be a unique piece in the late rounds. I have been hammering the 49ers in recent drafts and think they are being underappreciated despite their 10-game winning streak.
⭐ Dallas
The Cowboys regular season ended with a whimper, but they still have the talent to make noise in the postseason.
They are favored on the road in Tampa Bay and are at the end of the top tier of the NFC per the BetMGM Conference Champion odds.
Dallas is also a unique team because they have two RBs, Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliot that are being drafted before their second pass catcher (Dalton Schultz)
I think Dak Prescott is slightly overvalued (ADP 24.7) and have found myself taking Cowboys as secondary stacks (skill position players without the QB) fairly often.
🏴☠️️ Tampa Bay
The winners of the NFC South will host the Cowboys on Monday night of Wild Card weekend. The Buccaneers have not played good football for much of this season, but they have weapons and a seven-time Super Bowl Champion at QB.
Both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans have had their costs rise, but Tom Brady and the RBs Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White have stayed relatively cheap. If you don’t believe in Dallas then it makes a lot of sense to go heavy on Bucs stacks.
⛵ Minnesota
If you believe the Vikings have the fifth-best chance of winning the Conference, as the BetMGM odds imply, they are being overvalued in drafts.
If you believe they are the contenders that their 13-4 record suggests, they could be undervalued.
They are relatively easy to stack and have deep options like Adam Thielen, K.J. Osborn, and Alexander Mattison, who you can grab at the end of drafts.
Starting with Justin Jefferson and an elite AFC pass catcher like Stefon Diggs or Travis Kelce is one of my favorite starts when I am picking on the turn.
☂️ Seattle
The Seahawks snuck in thanks to the Lions' victory over the Packers on SNF.
With a difficult first-round matchup at San Francisco, Seattle players should remain very cheap in drafts. They are worth a look in contests that have been open for a while because they likely haven’t been drafted much up until now.
Other than that, I will just be taking Kenneth Walker and D.K. Metcalf as one-offs on teams where I need more firepower to advance from Round 1.
🗽 New York
The Giants are a tricky team due to their lack of stars, but it also means they are easy to stack late in drafts and a great emergency pivot if the start of the draft doesn’t go how you hope.
Saquon Barkley is the one piece you have to prioritize taking in the middle rounds, but then Daniel Jones and his pass catchers all go in the late rounds. I like the Giants' chances of pulling a first-round upset and like taking them when I need NFC players late in drafts.
🤝 Favorite teams to pair: SF & NYG
If I draft elite AFC pieces early in the draft I love to round out my NFC exposure with the 49ers and Giants in the middle and late rounds.
You can get premium players like George Kittle and Saquon Barkley at a reasonable cost to help you advance from round 1. The 49ers are legitimate contenders, while the Giants don’t have a particularly daunting matchup on the road in Minnesota and are more likely to give you multiple weeks of production than their prices suggest.
Additionally, these two teams could only meet in the conference championship game, which makes them a nice pairing in drafts.
🏴☠️️ Best Values: Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers' ADPs are rising rapidly but for the time being they are still underpriced for having the fourth best odds of being crowned NFC Champion.
It wouldn’t be a tremendous surprise if they upset Dallas in the first round, and then you never know what could happen, as the playoffs last year showed us. Even if you only get two games out of these players at their current ADPs that would still be a solid return on value.
