Why bet on a team to win in Week 5 when you can bet on it in the futures and awards market???
In todayās Betting Life Newsletter presented by The Touchdown Press:
- Leverage Opportunities! Multiple MVP bets for the 49ers???
- Player Props! Betting on the Falcons TEā¦1?
- Bets from the Group Chat: Cooper Kupp RETURNSā¦
- CFB: Camera guy gets hit in the crotch with a football ā and itās funny.
- SNF: 49ers vs. Cowboys
- Itās 10/8. Take it away, Matthew Freedmanā¦
In the Week 2 Sunday Betting Life newsletter, I highlighted several leverage opportunities available at the time.
As a reminder, the fundamental idea of sports betting leverage is this: āIf you are bullish on a specific thesis, donāt put your money in a traditional market. Instead, invest in an alternative market that offers significantly more upside in case youāre right.ā
Leverage is the power-multiplying force that results from making a forward-looking bet predicated on something else also happening.
Example: Last week, the Bills-Dolphins game was a screaming leverage spot.
Letās say you liked the Bills last week. Great, congrats, you were on the right side. Instead of betting them on the moneyline as favorites or betting them on the spread with no upside, you couldāve bet on QB Josh Allen in the MVP market, when he was +850.
Now, heās the MVP frontrunner at +380 (DraftKings).
Thatās leverage.
With that in mind, here are a few leverage spots that have my attention for Week 5. (Note: Iām not telling you to bet these. Iām saying, āIf you like this bet, then you might also want to consider this other bet.ā)
š Ravens at Steelers: -4 (-110, PointsBet) or -200 (FanDuel)
If you like the Ravens to beat the Steelers this weekend, here are the leverage opportunities to contemplate.
- Ravens to win AFC North: -125 (DraftKings)
- Lamar Jackson to win MVP: +1200 (BetMGM)
The Ravens are 3-1 currently, the same as the Chiefs, Bills, and Dolphins. They have the same point differential as the Chiefs (+41) and a better differential than the Dolphins (+31).
Theyāre getting healthier, and theyāre actually the No. 4 team in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings:
- Bills: +7.59
- 49ers: +6.44
- Chiefs: +6.28
- Ravens: +5.64
If the Ravens win, theyāll head into Week 6 with a 4-1 record while the Steelers will be 2-3, the Browns will be 2-2, and the Bengals will be no better than 2-3.
On top of that, the Ravens ā on the road! ā will have already beaten all of their divisional opponents this year.
If the Ravens win this weekend, it will be hard for them to lose the division barring a late-season collapse or Jackson injury.
As for Jackson, we already know that he has MVP upside within his personal range of outcomes, heās playing well this season (74.3% completion rate), and the Ravens could be a sneaky team to win the No. 1 seed in the AFC given that they wonāt need to face the Chiefs and Bills in the regular season.
And, if the Ravens get the No. 1 seed, Jackson will have short odds in the MVP market.
āļø 49ers vs. Cowboys: -3.5 (-105, PointsBet) or -180 (Caesars)
If you like the 49ers over the Cowboys, these are the potential leverage plays.
- 49ers to win NFC: +250 (bet365)
- Kyle Shanahan to win Coach of the Year: +1000 (BetMGM)
- Brock Purdy to win MVP: +1800 (BetMGM)
- Christian McCaffrey to win MVP: +2500 (FanDuel)
The 49ers are tied with the Eagles atop the NFC at 4-0, and they have the superior point differential (+67 vs. +28).
If they beat the Cowboys (3-1, +83), they will have proven themselves to be one of the NFLās best teams, and theyāll have an excellent shot to win the No. 1 seed and win 14-plus games.
If that happens, not only will they be a hard team to beat in the playoffs, but Shanahan will be a strong candidate for Coach of the Year, and both Purdy and McCaffrey will be in the MVP conversation (assuming they both stay healthy).
In full disclosure, I already have positions on Purdy (+5000) and McCaffrey (+8000) to win MVP logged in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.
Purdy is No. 1 in AY/A (10.0) and composite EPA + CPOE (0.249, per RBs Donāt Matter). Both of those stats are highly correlated with how players finish in MVP voting ā¦ but he might not have the raw production to warrant the award. Heās on pace for just 21.25 TDs passing.
The last time a QB won the MVP award with fewer than 25 TDs passing was in 1987, when John Elway had 19 in a strike-shortened 12-game campaign. Before that, 1976 ā when Bert Jones ā¦ for the Baltimore COLTS ā had 24 passing TDs in 14 games ā¦ because the league didnāt move to a 16-game season until 1978.
So if Purdy doesnāt start accumulating the raw stats, weāll be asking him to do something that has never been done before to win the MVP ā and Iām not a fan of asking guys to give me historical performances in order for me to win a bet.
So that puts me on McCaffrey, who ā as I mentioned in my Week 5 Freedmanās Favorites ā leads the league with 600 yards and seven TDs from scrimmage.
š¤ Texans at Falcons: +2 (-110, DraftKings) or +114 (FanDuel)
If you like the Texans over the Falcons, these are the leverage plays.
If you wanted to, you could make a case for QB C.J. Stroud to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+175, BetMGM) as a leverage play, but itās not as directly correlated to a win in Week 5 as the other bets are.
All the teams in the AFC South are currently 2-2. The Jaguars are underdogs this week against the Bills in London. The Titans barely have a functional offense at points. And the Colts have a rookie QB who -- though promising -- has issues with accuracy.
But in Stroud the Texans have a QB who has already looked like a polished professional through four weeks (8.8 AY/A, No. 3). Itās not hard to imagine the plucky Texans getting the AFC South with a Week 5 win and a little luck after that.
The Texans had three wins all of last year. If they exit Week 5 with three wins already accrued this year, Ryans will have a good shot at piling up enough wins across the season to make him a viable candidate for Coach of the Year at seasonās end.
By the way, I already have a ticket on Ryans (+2500) to win Coach of the Year. I made this bet in the offseason and wrote it up in my Texans betting preview.
For everything you need for Week 5 ā including our inactives page, which will update shortly after 11:30 am ET with all of the relevant status updates ā you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.
See our suite of tools to get you ready for todayās slate below:
Every week, Matthew Freedman writes an article with his top five player props. Here are a few of his favorites, which you can find (along with lots of other bets) in our 100% FREE bet tracker.
ā¬ļø Jonnu Smith Under 32.5 Receiving Yards (-120, bet365)
Smith did nothing in Week 1 (zero targets), but in Weeks 2-4, he balled out (15-179-0 receiving on 20 targets).
Over the past three games, Smith is No. 1 on the team in receiving yards and receptions and No. 2 in targets.
Wowzah.
Hereās the thing: Iām not buying it.
Since Week 2, Smith is No. 5 on the team in route rate (68%) ā behind WR Drake London (88%), TE Kyle Pitts (88%), RB Bijan Robinson (73%), and WR Mack Hollins (72%).
In his 2020-21 seasons as the No. 1 TE with the Titans under then-OC and current Falcons HC Arthur Smith, Jonnu averaged 28.6 receiving yards per game with a median of 20.
Last week ā in their first game with both SS Jimmy Ward and FS Jalen Pitre healthy ā the Texans held Steelers TEs Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington to a combined 17 yards receiving on five targets.
- My Projection: 23.3
- Cutoff: 28.5
ā¬ļø Tony Pollard Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-118, BetMGM)
Pollard had just 47 yards rushing on 11 carries last week ā but that was in a 38-3 home blowout. This week the Cowboys are road underdogs (+3.5) against the 49ers, so I think theyāll give Pollard as much work as he can handle, especially since No. 2 RB Rico Dowdle (hip) isnāt 100%.
As great as the 49ersā defense is, itās vulnerable against the run, ranking No. 28 in rush EPA (0.028) and No. 29 in rush SR (46.7%, per RBs Donāt Matter).
No RB has hit this total yet against the 49ers ā RBs Kyren Williams (Week 2) and James Conner (Week 4) have come the closest with 52 yards ā but they also have not faced a team as good as the Cowboys and an RB as good as Pollard.
Iām yet to see Pollard to the under in any projection set.
- My Projection: 67.0
- Cutoff: 60.5
SEE THE REST OF FREEDMANāS PROPS!
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For this weekās bets, Geoff has focused on a couple of key spots for prop betting, by looking at some potentially undervalued players that have big breakout opportunities in Week 5.
These are all based on bets and player props Iāve already placed in our Free Bet Tracker. However, on top of the āregularā props Iāve posted, for this article, Iāve also put together some more degenerate (better?) ways to play these situationsā¦ if youāre into that kind of thing (you are).
šµ The Breece Hall āPaybackā Game
- Over 16.5 longest rush (-105, BetMGM)
- 100+ yards rushing āMilestoneā (+390, BetMGM)
- SGP: 90+ rush yards/2+ TDs (+2000, BetMGM)
Payback is a great movie. Mel Gibson taking on an entire Mob-fortified building simply over the principle of being shorted a āmereā $70,000 is a great premise (OK, he was nearly killed by the same people at the start of the movie but thatās neither here nor there).
This week feels like Hallās payback moment. While he canāt put the blame on any specific person for his unfortunate injury ā it was a very ordinary play ā Iām also quite sure the irony of the situation this week (same team, same stadium where he suffered the injury) has not been lost on him.
Anyways, back to the bets. I love Hallās longest rush prop which is set at an exceedingly low 16.5 yards. Heās gone over this mark now in eight of his last 11 games and that stretch includes:
A game against Denver last year where he took 4 carries before tearing his ACL.
Four other games where he took 8 or fewer carries.
However, while single-play props are fine this is a special player we are talking about and a historically bad defense.
In short, playing for a monster day from Hall, on multiple angles, is very warranted.
We can get Hall to go for 100+ yards on BetMGMās Milestone lines at +390, which I like.
However, much like Mel Gibsonās Payback character of Porter, a part of me doesnāt think that Hall will necessarily be satisfied with ājustā 100 yards. Thatās why I went to the same game parlay builder and put this +2000 monstrosity together. The Payback special.
If this hits, expect a āLethal Weaponā SGP in this section for Week 6.
š The Greatest Show on Turf, Part Deux
- Rams +4.5 (-115, BetMGM)
- Matthew Stafford 300+ yards (+147, BetMGM)
- SGP (+10000, BetMGM)
- Rams +4.5
- Over 50.5
- Stafford over 329.5
- Nucua over 69.5 rec. yards,
- Kupp over 69.5 rec. yards
- Swift over 89.5 rush yards
- Swift anytime TD
The closer we get to kick-off, the more I like the Rams. They are getting their heart and soul back in Cooper Kupp and may still be underrated by the overall marketplace who had this now 2-2 team pegged with a 6.5 win total to start the year.
The Rams are 18-10 SU with Kupp in the lineup since 2021 (in games heās started and finished) and they would be adding him to an improved WR arsenal which now also includes star rookie Puka Nucua.
The Eagles defensive line remains stout but they will be without DT Fletcher Cox (back) and needed overtime last week to finish off what Justin Fields exposed as a very overrated Commanders side. Trend-wise, betting against Jalen Hurts on the road has been a solid proposition as he enters this week just 8-13 ATS in away games for his career.
I already played the Rams at +4.5 early in the week but am looking at more ways to get exposure to the overall upside of their players in this game, against what has been a very lethargic Eagles defense to date.
š¾ Itās a good thing the Patriots are favored at home, right? Maybe Mac Jones isnāt the long-term answer?
š Did D.J. Moore go off on Thursday Night Football? Meaningless revenge, anyone?
š° Just like thereās always room for dessertā¦thereās always room for last-minute bets.
ā”ļø The Chargers are on bye this week. We must protect the children of the USA!
š This is the kind of prop we want to see more of: Cooper Kupp vs. Puka Nacua.
š Iām not sure which post is better, but theyāre both bangers. The originalā¦and then the derivativeā¦
š° Yeah, you bet we got bets on Sunday Night Football: and theyāre not all unders from Freedman!
šŗ Chris Canty needs to be on every ESPN show all day, every day: This isnāt a mainstream sports take.
š Not the most important college football play this weekend, but maybe the funniest? Iām still laughingā¦and this angle might be betterā¦
The Week 5 SNF nightcap features a high-octane NFC matchup between the 49ers and Cowboys, and Geoff Ulrich is BACK to break it down from a betting angleā¦
Despite the one hiccup against Arizona, the Cowboys enter this game feeling far better about themselves after thrashing another NFC East team. Through four weeks they are second in overall point differential (+83) and have covered easily in three of four games.
The 49ers enter still undefeated after holding off the Cardinals at home in Week 4 ā and have been the epitome of a well-oiled machine to date.
Thus far the 49ers rank 2nd in overall offensive DVOA and 7th in defensive DVOA. The Cowboysā defense actually grades out as the best unit in this game (1st in overall defensive DVOA) but, again, we have to factor in opponents faced and, thus far, Dallas has faced three extremely weak offenses.
- Spread: 49ers -3.5 (-110; BetMGM)
- Total: 45.0
- Moneylines: Cowboys +150 / 49ers -181
The 49ers come into this game on quite a roll from a sides perspective. Under Brock Purdy the team has moved to 9-3 ATS when he is the starter and 11-1 SU. While they failed to cover against the Rams, Los Angeles looks to have been one of the most undervalued teams in the NFL early on so that line may have simply been too far in the 49ers favor.
From a matchup perspective, the Cowboysā path to victory revolves around their ability to A. pressure Brock Purdy and B. run the ball.
San Francisco is certainly no slouch on defense but they entered last week just 21st in defensive DVOA against the run. Tony Pollard should also be primed for some heavy usage especially after the Cowboys were able to rest him last week after getting up by 30+ points. Pollard took just 11 carries against the Patriots but is averaging 5.0 yards per carry and will offer another significant test for the 49ers.
Last year these two teams met in the playoffs and Pollard was lost early on to a fractured fibula. Prior to that injury, the game was tied 6-6. For the game, Dallas sacked Brock Purdy twice and held him to just a 65% completion rate and zero TD passes in the close 19-12 49er win.
With San Franciscoās run defense lagging and now having to face a Cowboys team with a healthy Pollard, there is likely a path to Dallas covering and even winning this game.
However, given how totals have fared in primetime games this year (10-4 to the under) Iād rather lean towards the under on the current 45.0 game total.
SEE MORE SNF ANALYSIS AND BETS!
