🧱 Backs Against the Wall

The only thing worse than an 0-3 start is Jerry Seinfeld’s new Pop-Tart movie.

In today’s Betting Life newsletter, presented by Underdog:

NBA Friday: Trust the Pacers’ elite offense.

UFC Fight Night: Derrick Lewis will do what he does best.

NHL Playoffs: Buy low on Connor McDavid?

It’s 5/10. Take it away, Matt LaMarca…

0-3. The phrase sends shivers down the backs of all athletes, none more so than NBA players.

Falling in an 0-3 hole in the postseason has historically been a death sentence. There have been 154 teams down 0-3 in the postseason, and all 154 have eventually lost their series. Only four have even managed to force a Game 7, with the Celtics managing to do it last year.

Both of Friday’s NBA contests will feature teams trying to get their series back on track. The Pacers head home down 0-2 to the Knicks, but some recent injury developments have given them new life.

Things aren’t quite as rosy for the defending champs. The Nuggets lost the first two games to the Timberwolves in Denver, and now they’ll have to go on the road. Denver has historically been much stronger at home than on the road, and with Jamal Murray at less than 100%, the writing could be on the wall.

Let’s dive into my favorite bet for Friday’s slate:

⬆️ Indiana Pacers Over 114.5 points (-120; DraftKings)

The Knicks are running out of bodies. They lost Mitchell Robinson for the remainder of the postseason after Game 1, and OG Anunoby went down with a hamstring injury in Game 2. Anunoby has already been ruled out for Game 3, and he’s reportedly not expected to play in Game 4, either.

Such is life under head coach Tom Thibodeau. No one in basketball pushes their stars to a higher degree, and while that’s undoubtedly led to their success this postseason, it also comes at a cost. Their rotation is getting extremely thin. Precious Achuiwa will likely move into the starting lineup, leaving Miles McBride as their only trusted bench option.

Losing Anunoby will hurt the Knicks most defensively. When he was on the floor for the Knicks during the regular season, their Defensive Rating improved by +16.4 points per 100 possessions (per Cleaning the Glass). That’s an elite figure.

The Pacers don’t typically need any help scoring the basketball. They led the league with 122.4 points per game during the regular season, and they’ve gone over 114.5 in both of the first two games in this series.

You could consider playing the Pacers on the spread, but I’m scared of the Knicks’ ability to close games late. Grabbing the Pacers to score at least 115 points feels like the safer option.

More Bets for Monday’s Slate!

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🥊 It’s always a party when Derrick Lewis enters the octagon. Best bets for UFC Fight Night.

⚾️ We have a TON of MLB action on Friday. Best bets for the massive slate.

💪 Happy Festivus, Pacers fans. The team filed a grievance with 78 calls they felt went against them in Games 1 and 2.

🏆 Jokic racks up his third MVP. Honestly, he’d probably trade all of them for a decent horse.

💰 The NBA Awards parlay cashes BIG. This guy needs to order a Naz Reid jersey ASAP.

🤑 Cash it out, or let it ride? $100k in the hand vs. $1.7M in the bush.

😑 44 problems, and they’re all the Celtics. One bettor went big on Boston at the exact wrong moment.

🛑 The Canes can’t figure out Igor Shesterkin. Down 3-0, they have little time left to fix the problem.

🤕 Stop me if you’ve heard this one: Hideki Matsuyama, late Withdraw. The PGA’s (lack of) injury reporting is no bueno for gamblers.

The NHL has two games set for Friday night. Both teams in the Panthers-Bruins series have now won games by wide margins and head back to Boston 1-1. The Oilers will try to rebound after blowing a three-goal lead in Game 1 of their series. Can Boston and Edmonton bounce back? Geoff Ulrich gives his thoughts below.

🥅 Connor McDavid Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+134; FanDuel)

5+ SOG (+290; FanDuel)

SGP: Anytime Goal | 4+ SOG (+297; FanDuel)

I fully expect the Oilers captain to lead by example tonight. His team was held without a shot for 20 minutes at one point in Game 1, and he was held to zero shots on goal for the entire game by the Canucks. Keeping McDavid from registering a shot is a huge win for Vancouver, and you have to figure he’ll be doing his best to rectify that situation early on today.

Vancouver’s defense is mobile, but I fully expect to see the A+ game out of McDavid, whose speed is next level. He had four SOG in the deciding Game 5 against L.A. and, coming off the Oilers’ only other loss of the postseason (Game 3 against L.A.), he managed five SOG and recorded three points. While his shot volume did go down significantly this season, he still averaged a very healthy 3.46 shots on net in the regular season and posted five SOG or more in seven of his last 21 games (33%). Despite that solid hit rate, his implied odds of hitting 5+ SOG tonight are still sitting around 25% (+290; FanDuel), a big divergence in price from what other books are posting. 

The price for him to go over his regular total of 3.5 is attractive enough, but laddering him through five shots and sprinkling in his anytime goal prop (+125; FanDuel) in some same-game parlays makes plenty of sense for those looking for bigger payouts. Arturs Silovs did not look great in Game 1, and McDavid should be looking to make up for a weak Game 1 by testing him as much as possible today.

🐆 Alek Barkov over 0.5 assists (+105; DraftKings)

Barkov is a pivotal player for the Panthers. He’s not only their most well-rounded forward but a solid playmaker who helped Sam Reinhart reach over 57 goals this season. Coming into tonight, Barkov has already recorded assists in four of seven playoff games and has been solid against the Bruins, landing assists in eight of his last 10 games against them.  

The Bruins had no answer for the Panthers' attack in Game 2, and while I’m sure we’ll see a better effort out of Boston in Game 3, I’m not so sure it will be enough to slow down the Panthers entirely. Barkov’s over in this market is also as low as -105 at some books, making this +105 on DraftKings attractive enough for a small play. 

The Bruins haven’t had much answer for Barkov over the past two seasons, and with their goaltending suddenly in flux, now is not the time I would pick to start betting against him hitting this prop again.

More Bets for Friday’s NHL Slate!