Ooooh the weather outside is frightful—wait, not so fast.
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by LG Channels:
- Rain impacting football? Well, yes and no…
- Morning Download: Key status updates
- Browns WR corps at full strength
- Bets from the Group Chat: Courtland Sutton szn
- Hidden Gems: WRs who shouldn’t go overlooked, but are…
- It’s 12/10. Take it away, Chris Allen…
We were due for a weekend with bad weather.
Injuries have been the storyline all season. Honestly, I’m surprised we didn’t get to this point sooner. Regardless, in December (whodathunkit?), the elements are a factor. But it’s not all bad.
I dove into the impacts of wind on our game over the offseason. In short, if wind speeds aren’t over 20 mph, we shouldn’t worry.
Why? Because teams don’t.
If they did, we’d see a drop in how many plays they run or how often they pass. Basically, the things we care about for fantasy purposes would change. And the data I’ve collected indicates there’s bias in our conclusions because we remember the extremes.
Every rain game becomes Week 1 between the 49ers and Bears from last year. Every snow game is the LeSean McCoy Snow Bowl. And, of course, every windy game is Mac Jones attempting three passes against the Bills.
But, of course, there’s nuance. As I mentioned, wind speeds have a threshold. And with rain, it’s no different. A precipitation rate exceeding 0.1 inches per hour creates the most instability in a team’s offensive approach. Unfortunately, we’ve only had four games over the last four seasons to hit that mark, but I found a few trends:
- Pass rate over expectation was below the baseline PROE (i.e., pass rates in normal, sunny conditions) for 7 of 8 teams
- The average drop was 4.5 percentage points
- Total plays run was less than the baseline average for 7 of 8 teams
- The average drop was 3.4 plays
- QB completion percentage over expected was down for 4 of 8 passers
- The average drop was 1.1 percentage points
So, in essence, there are fewer passes, slightly fewer plays, and an inaccurate pass here and there. Game script can push teams for more or fewer snaps, and a weak grip on the ball could change the outcome of a passing play (if you don’t believe a nerd like me, listen to Golden Tate). And with at least one game having similar conditions on the slate, I’ll walk through optimal ways to approach each contest.
🌧 Rams at Ravens
As of this writing, rain is the only factor in this game at an average of 0.04 inches per hour. The max wind speed will be at 9 mph from the SSW (across the stadium; a chance for cross breeze), but we’re not worried about kickers.
- Keaton Mitchell’s rising rushing share (12.5% to 27.3% over the last three games) and Gus Edwards’ RZ efficiency (10 TDs on 34 attempts) keep them safe. Heck, Kyren Williams’ instant 21 and 23-touch workloads should keep him as a high-end RB2 option. Our only worry should be about either passing game.
- Puka Nacua’s back-to-back full practices should be good enough to stay in starting lineups for any fantasy manager. However, with Cooper Kupp falling to second or third in targets or air yards over since his Week 11 ankle scare, breaking ties in favor of WRs in better environments isn’t the worst idea.
Simply put, focus on the core plays and stack them up against your other options. Odell Beckham (who led the Ravens’ WRs in TPRR before their bye) versus Romeo Doubs without Christian Watson? I’d give Doubs the nod. Again, it doesn’t mean avoiding everyone, but look at their situation and measure it against your other options before making a decision.
☔ Texans at Jets
I’m mentioning this one for thoroughness. But it’s not like we have a ton of plays here.
If you’re rostering Garrett Wilson and still fighting for a playoff spot, vaya con Dios. However, Nico Collins finds himself around hard-to-replace talent in (what I assume) to be a must-win week for most folks.
According to the forecast (while I write this), the rain will start becoming an issue after kickoff and get worse from there (up to 0.2 inches per hour in the second half). Stroud should have time to link up with Collins for a deep shot or two before having to adjust to the worsened conditions assuming the rainfall increases.
Ironically, Garrett Wilson did something similar to the Bears last season as the rain got worse in the second half of his Week 12 matchup. With fewer options, even against a tough secondary, Collins could meet expectations before the rain becomes a factor.
Make sure to check out how our expert rankers have adjusted for the inclement weather in these games before locking your lineups this afternoon.
🛠️ Everything you need for Week 14
Read on for more info in the Morning Download on Amari Cooper, Christian Watson, and more.
For everything else you need for Week 14—including our Inactives page, which will update shortly after 11:30 am ET with all of the relevant status updates—you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.
See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:
The NFL landscape is constantly changing, with players’ statuses getting frequent updates throughout the week. Unfortunately, that includes Saturday.
If you were doing something better than following the NFL during the weekend – lucky you – let’s get you caught up on everything you might have missed courtesy of Matt LaMarca...
✅ Amari Cooper – In
Cooper was sidelined to start the week with a concussion and rib injuries, but he did return to limited practice on Friday. It seems like that will be enough to get him back in the lineup, with NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reporting that Cooper will suit up vs. the Jaguars.
Cooper has been limited in his past two contests, but he was the team’s clear alpha receiver through the first 11 weeks. He led the team in both target share (24%) and air yards share (42%), albeit for a minimally-productive unit. Still, he had two games of at least 21.1 fantasy points through his first eight outings, so he’s worth a spot in your starting lineup. He’ll likely check in as a WR3 in our finalized Week 14 rankings.
The bigger question is who will Cooper be catching passes from? Joe Flacco was promoted to the active roster for gameday, and after last week’s performance vs. the Rams, I’d make him the favorite. That would be a big upgrade for the Browns’ pass-catchers compared to Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
❌ Christian Watson – Out
The Packers have worked themselves back into playoff contention, and they draw a favorable matchup vs. the Giants on Monday Night Football. Unfortunately, they’re going to be without their top receiver. Watson suffered a hamstring injury vs. the Chiefs in Week 13, leaving Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed as the top remaining pass-catchers.
Fortunately, the Packers could get Aaron Jones back. He got in three limited practices this week and is officially questionable vs. the Giants.
The fact that the Packers play on Monday Night Football complicates things. Personally, I think Jones is a low-end RB2 if he suits up, so if you have someone in a similar range that plays on Sunday, it’s probably best to just take the sure thing.
🤷♂️ Dalton Kincaid – It’s Complicated
Dawson Knox has been activated from IR, so he’ll make his return to the lineup in Week 14 vs. the Chiefs. That said, what his role will be remains to be seen.
With Knox sidelined recently, Kincaid has provided solid production for fantasy players. He was a top-10 tight end in four straight games from Week 7 through 10 before crashing back to reality over his past two games.
With Knox back in the fold, Kincaid will likely be looking at a reduction in snaps. He had a 68% snap share and 11% target rate during his first five games this season, which all came with Knox in the lineup. Since then, his figures have increased to 80% and 23%.
Kincaid is likely to hold on to some of that extra production, and he’s still worth starting at a weak tight end position. However, he likely dips from a midrange starter to a low-end one.
📺Fantasy Life on LG Channels LIVE TODAY at 11:00 am EST!
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Golden Tate, Kendall Valenzuela, and Ian Hartitz get you ready for all of the day's action on Fantasy Showtime Live exclusively on LG Channels!
When: TODAY at 11:00 am EST
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Why: Because they are going to get you ready to dominate your fantasy matchups before kick-off including:
- JJettas is Back!!! 🙏
- What can we expect from Jake Browning and the Bengals?
- Which RBs are set up for a Smash Week?
📈 Browns WR1 back to face the Jaguars. There goes any hope for Elijah Moore.
💰 Need last-minute bets? Yeah, we know you do. We’ve got you covered for FREE.
⚡️ Week 14 Defense vs. Position data. Will Austin Ekeler get going in a smash matchup?
🤣 Bill Belichick making his pick on College Gameday. An instant classic moment.
🤝 When they find paydirt, you get a payday. Today’s best TD props to bet.
🔨 Could Broncos vs. Chargers provide some unexpected fireworks? Week 14 bets to hammer.
🤑 Geno Smith’s uncertainty sure has Vegas favoring the 49ers. What would you set the line at?
⚔️ The NFC East game of the year. Everything you need to bet on a banger of a SNF game.
Welcome to Week 14 of Bets from the Group Chat. This is where Geoff elicits as much information as he can from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their leans for this week. It’s really a selfish endeavor, as he’ll probably be using some of their plays to offset his own losers.
The 3-way group chat parlay record moved back to 4-5 on the year after we got tripped up in a couple of spots (thanks Steelers) last week. Even after the loss, we are still up +16.52 units overall since this started (assuming one unit bet per parlay).
As always, this week we have three separate plays from three different sources for our parlay below.
If parlays aren’t your thing, we also have the weekly ladder target. Good luck!
1️⃣ Jordan likes: C.J. Stroud over 214.5 passing yards (-115, BetMGM)
- Projection: 234.8 yards
- Play to: 217.5 (-110)
The Jets are one of the toughest passing defenses in the NFL but this is C.J. Stroud we’re talking about. He’s third in yards per attempt this season and has thrown for 270+ yards in five straight games.
The line on Stroud has moved down all week but the worst of the rain and wind may not come until late in the game. Our projections agree that this total looks like it’s too bearish and warrants an over.
2️⃣ Mark likes: Bears +3.5 (-120, BetMGM)
- Play to: +3.0 (-105)
I’m with Mark on the Bears this week. They have an emerging defense that has nabbed eight turnovers in their last three games.
As Mark mentions himself in our FREE bet tracker, catching Jared Goff outside in potentially poor weather could be a gift. Goff is 9-14-1 ATS for his career while playing outdoors in Dec/Jan.
3️⃣ Geoff likes: Austin Ekeler under 13.5 carries (-150, BetMGM)
- Projection: 12.6
- Play to: 12.5 (-115)
The Chargers run game has been awful this year with Ekeler averaging 3.5 yards per carry, or less, in seven of nine games this season.
Head Coach Brandon Staley has hinted there may be more carries for backup Josh Kelley this week which would of course hurt Ekeler’s volume. He’s also gone under this total in two of his last three games.
🤝 Putting it all together: +508, BetMGM SGP
📈 Week 14 Ladder Plays: Courtland Sutton - Broncos (BetMGM)
- 75+ rec yards (+165) - play to +125
- 80+ rec yards + anytime TD (+400 - SGP)
- 100+ rec yards (+425) - play to +400
This spot against the Chargers looks like a prime one for Sutton to excel and finally post that 100+/TD day he has been close to all season.
The Chargers secondary has faced a couple of low-volume passing offenses of late but they are still allowing the third most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs. On the year, they’ve allowed four 100+ yard games to opposing WRs and the fifth most receiving yards to the position to date.
We can play Sutton through 75+ and 100+ yards but if you want a third bet to include in a Sutton ladder play this week creating a same-game parlay on BetMGM with 80+ yards and an anytime TD gives you solid +400 odds to chase.
As mentioned, he’s been an extremely efficient TD scorer and faces a bottom-tier secondary, which should allow ample opportunity to add to that total.
Everyone knows the best plays. Josh Allen, Christian McCaffrey, Justin Jefferson, Travis Kelce. But what about the sleepers no one else is on? Those are the guys that can vault you to the top of the leaderboard. In this weekly piece, Pete will go treasure hunting for Hidden Gems that you can draft in Battle Royale contests on Underdog Fantasy and in DFS contests.
💎 WR: Puka Nacua (ADP: 35.5)
One of the biggest edges in Battle Royale contests is simply chasing cheap volume. We rarely get a player with Nacua’s role (30% target share on the season) at these prices.
I understand why it’s happening (bad matchup vs. Ravens, potentially lots of rain in Baltimore, a false flag limited designation at practice on Wednesday), but Puka’s playing at too high of a level right now to fade.
Even with Cooper Kupp back, Nacua hasn’t had a game with less than seven targets since Week 8. He’s getting used all over the field and is always a threat to break the slate. Had he connected on a few of these sheesh plays from Week 13, he’d be going much earlier in drafts.
I love taking Nacua as a one-off or as a bring-back correlation with Ravens pieces.
💎 WR: Courtland Sutton (ADP: 34.9)
No one wants to touch the Broncos these days, but Sutton has a very Battle Royale-friendly profile right now. Here’s the case for Sutton in Week 14 vs. the Chargers:
- Clear No. 1 WR on his team (92% route share & 24% target share)
- 45% endzone target share (9 TDs on the season)
- Led the league in unrealized Air Yards in Week 13 (153)
- Gets a Chargers defense that has allowed the third most fantasy points to WRs
Yes, the Broncos have shifted more to the run of late, but Sutton has the exact type of boom/bust profile that we want to embrace in these large tournaments.
You could draft him as a one-off, utilize skinny stacks with Sutton and Russell Wilson, or play him opposite a Chargers piece like Keenan Allen.
