Today, betting is going to save lives …
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Underdog:
NHL Bets: Capitalize with Washington
Tyson v Paul: Is the wrong side favored?
NCAA Basketball: Props and Projections
NBA Monday: Trust the Timberwolves in Utah
It’s 3/18. Take it away, Geoff Ulrich
I’ve been ramping up the coverage for Betting Life in the NHL bet tracker while also posting NHL plays in our Underdog pick’em tracker. With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror, some decent trends have started to form.
Over the past nine NHL slates favorites are now 50-20 straight-up, with favorites yesterday going 7-0 SU. It’s not a huge sample size, but the trade deadline tends to make the strong teams stronger, which has likely helped favorites, as a whole, outperform.
It’s a small slate, but let’s get to the games and see where the bets take us on the frozen pond for Monday.
🏛️ Washington Capitals Moneyline (+114, DraftKings)
Play to: +130
This team was a big seller at the deadline, letting go of veterans Evgeny Kuznetsov, Anthony Mantha and Joel Edmundson. However, despite fielding an underwhelming lineup, the Capitals have managed to post a respectable 6-4 record over their last 10 games. That’s allowed Washington to get within one point of Detroit for the last playoff spot.
The Flames are also 6-4 in their last 10 games, but at one point in that span lost three games in a row by a combined margin of 18-5. Their goaltending has been up and down since Jacob Markstrom (questionable) got hurt, and Washington will have an edge with Charlie Lindgren (likely), who has posted save percentages of .955 or better in four of his last five starts.
Despite favorites dominating of late, I’m going against the trends in my first pick. Given how similar these two teams are in terms of lineup depth and playoff positioning, I’d rather take the underdog given the Capitals appear to have the edge in net and still possess one of the greatest wingers in the game in Alexander Ovechkin.
👇 Alex Tuch (Sabres) Under 0.5 Points (+114, DraftKings)
Play to: +100
Despite Tuch being well behind on his production from last season (0.688 ppg vs. 1.06 ppg in 2022-23), the under on his point total has gone off at +100 or better many times over the last month. On the season, he’s now gone pointless in 32 of 61 starts (52% hit rate) — and he’s scored points in just eight of his last 20 games.
Additionally, while Tuch is still playing big minutes, the Kraken, at home, have been a tough matchup for Eastern Conference opponents. They’ve allowed just 11 goals combined to the last five Eastern teams they’ve played (in Seattle) and have allowed the 19th fewest goals against at home this season.
While the under on the 5.5 game total still has some appeal, it’s already at -105 or worse at most sportsbooks. The under on Tuch’s line (as mentioned previously) moved in the opposite direction for this game and looks like the more appealing play right now.
⚾ Baseball is Right Around the Corner!
So that means it's to start drafting for Baseball 2024!
The Dinger, The Perfect Game, MLB Eliminators and more are live on Underdog Fantasy!
No better way to enjoy Spring than with some drafting on Underdog! And since football season never really ends, Underdog already has a Big Board contest open for the 2024 Football Season!!
Drafting is even more fun now since Underdog is offering a $100 FIRST DEPOSIT MATCH. Seriously, sign up TODAY to get a 100% deposit match of up to $100.
Good luck, and start drafting on Underdog Fantasy!
IT'S ALWAYS DRAFT SEASON ON UNDERDOG!
🏀 The 2024 March Madness bracket is here. Best bets to start your tournament.
😑 Why didn’t you go to your home!? Wyndham Clark bettors … avert your eyes (no seriously).
🏌️History at Sawgrass. Scheffler becomes the first golfer to go back-to-back at THE PLAYERS.
🤯 Would have been epic. Xander Schauffele’s failure cost us one of the craziest parlay wins of all time.
🥊 The Champ is a dog. The early Tyson v Paul lines are out.
🦅 Let the hate flow through you. Proof Tom Brady still hasn’t gotten over his Super Bowl loss to the Eagles.
🎢 The Madness has begun. There has already been some big line movement for the first set of games.
💰 Lots of sports, lots of bets. Our bet tracker has NBA, NHL, and now CBB … what more could you ask for?
🏀 March Madness 2024 Betting Life Preview
March Madness is here, so Matthew Freedman is running through his plans for prop betting the 2024 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. Check out his primer below for more information about his projections and where you can find his CBB plays for the big tournament …
I’ll make the same disclaimer now that I’ve made for years: I don’t follow college basketball. I’m not obsessed with it. I don’t care much about it. Even during March, I hardly watch it.
But betting player props for March Madness might be the thing I do best in the world.
Here’s my record (units in parentheses).
2019: 125-69-12 (+39.8)
2020: Eternal Sadness
2021: 106-64-1 (+33.8)
2022: 243-210 (+14.9)
2023: 305-241 (+48.1)
Over the past couple weeks, I’ve gotten my NCAAB player projection model set up and placed test bets to make sure everything works. The results have been in keeping with past performance: 27-17 (+10.1).
I think it’s gonna be a good three weeks.
How Can I Bet NCAAB If I Don’t Follow It?
I’m decent at building player projection models, and basketball player production isn’t too hard to project.
So I think my overall March Madness model is sound – and then I obsess about player minutes. I spend an embarrassing number of hours digging into past playing time patterns and then projecting out manually the minutes I expect every player in every game to get.
It’s an exhaustive process. That’s my edge: General competence and tons of time.
2024 March Madness + Betting Life
For the NCAA tournament, my player projections will be available — for FREE — on the site. On top of that, I’ll post all the player prop bets I’ve made in the Free Picks channel of our Fantasy Life Discord, and I’ll highlight some of my favorites in our Free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.
Join the Fantasy Life Discord for more CBB Bets!!
The NBA is entering the home stretch, with less than a month to go in the regular season. There’s still plenty left to be decided, so the final month will be crucial for determining playoff seeding and which teams will qualify for the play-in tournament. Matt LaMarca breaks down some of his favorite options for Monday’s NBA slate.
🔥 Miami Heat (+2.5) at Philadelphia 76ers (-112; DraftKings)
The Heat are coming off a gutsy win over the Pistons on Sunday, where they had to survive without Jimmy Butler. Bam Adebayo knocked down a game-winning 3-pointer as time expired, while Duncan Robinson poured in a season-high 30 points.
There’s a chance that Butler returns to the lineup on Monday, which would be a huge boon to the squad. Butler may not put up true superstar numbers, but his impact on the court cannot be overstated. The Heat have increased their Net Rating by +8.7 points with Butler on the floor, improving on both offense and defense.
While Butler returning would be nice, I don’t think Miami necessarily needs him to beat the 76ers. Philadelphia has been lost ever since Joel Embiid went down with an injury. They’re just 11-22 without their star big man in the lineup, and they’ve dipped to 25th in defensive efficiency over their recent stretch without him.
Additionally, Tobias Harris missed the team’s last contest, so they could be more banged up than usual. Philly has won just two of their past seven games: a victory over a shorthanded Knicks squad and a win vs. the lowly Hornets. They’ve suffered defeats to cellar-dwellers like the Grizzlies and Nets over that time frame, so I don’t think they deserve to be favored over Miami.
⬆️ Toumani Camara Over 1.5 assists (-105; BetMGM)
The Blazers are limping toward the finish line, and they should be shorthanded again on Monday. Jerami Grant is doubtful vs. the Bulls, while Matisse Thybulle is questionable.
Grant has missed four of the past five games for the Blazers, which has allowed Camara to move into the starting lineup. He’s played heavy minutes in those contests, logging at least 30.3 in all four games. When you’re on the court that much, you can stumble over 1.5 assists without even trying.
Camara has gone over this figure in four of his past five games, and he’s averaged 2.8 assists per game over that stretch. The Paydirt sims aren’t particularly bullish on Camara, but I’m willing to target this over regardless. As long as Grant is out, -105 on over 1.5 assists is an excellent price.
