Not everyone who gets compared to a Hall of Famer plays like a Hall of Famer…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by NFFC:
- Garrett Wilson = Davante Adams?
- Get. Out. Of. Your. Head.
- The latest QB domino to fall
- Yet another stat highlighting how great Tua’s 2022 was…
- Is this FINALLY the year of the Late-Round TE?
- It’s 7/26. Take it away, Matthew Freedman…
We are just a little over a week away from the Hall of Fame Game, where we’ll see the Browns “host” the Jets in Canton, OH.
It’s fitting that the Jets will kick off the preseason, because they’ve been the story of the offseason thanks to trading for four-time MVP QB Aaron Rodgers in April.
Despite going 7-10 last year, they’re No. 6 in odds to win the Super Bowl at BetMGM (+1600). They’re the 2023 team of Hard Knocks. Every other training camp highlight released by the Jets’ social media team is Rodgers completing a pass to 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year WR Garrett Wilson.
Since May, Rodgers has been going out of his way to compare Wilson to former teammate Davante Adams — a three-time first-team All-Pro.
The hype is out of control, and fantasy players are buying it. I’m looking at our free ADP tool right now (my product promos are nothing if not natural), and Wilson and Adams have an identical 15.8 ADP at NFFC. People are taking this “Wilson = Adams” narrative at face value.
As a sports bettor, I have minimal interest in fading the Jets overall. I view them as a moderate “bet on” team. They could be top-eight at QB and defense. They’re legitimate championship contenders.
But I’m 100% betting against Wilson in the season-long player prop market:
⬇️ Garrett Wilson Under 1,150.5 Yards Receiving (-110, BetMGM)
For fantasy, I don’t hate Wilson’s ADP. He has a high floor and a high ceiling. As great as he was last year, he could be even better this year, and in fantasy we want to invest in upside.
But for sports betting, where we’re often trying to gain leverage against median outcomes, I’m comfortable betting against Wilson — not because I think he’s bad but because of his circumstances and the market’s nuances.
For season-long props, I strongly lean toward unders, which have been the sharp side for years. In 2017, we saw 71.2% of season-long player props hit the under. In 2021, that number was 66.7%.
And this is anecdotal, but last year I went 33-11 (+20.3 units) on season-long player props while taking unders on about 90% of my bets.
For an over to hit, almost everything needs to go right for a player. But if anything goes wrong, the under is likely to cash.
And something could go wrong for Wilson in 2023.
He played 17 games last year, but we should never expect perfect health for a player. Wilson could get injured. Or Rodgers, who turns 40 years old in December, could suffer an injury or start to break down physically. Or maybe Rodgers will play poorly: The decline we saw from 2021 MVP to 2022 mediocre starter could continue into 2023.
Or maybe Rodgers will be fine but the offense could still underwhelm because of OC Nathaniel Hackett, who was a terrible playcaller last year as the Broncos HC.
Or maybe the offense will be good but based on the running game.
Or maybe the offense will be effective and balanced, but Rodgers will throw more than we expect to WRs Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, with whom he has an established connection from their time together with the Packers.
And maybe we shouldn’t expect Wilson (6’ and 183 lbs.) to be a one-for-one replacement for Adams (6’1” and 212 lbs.), given that they’re different kinds of receivers.
I’m too much of a pessimist/realist to bet on everything going right for Wilson — and if I were willing to invest in his best-case scenario then I’d just rather bet on the Jets to win the AFC at +1000. (And I don’t hate that bet, by the way.)
I have Wilson projected for 1,059.7 yards receiving. With about 90 yards of value to the under, I can’t help but bet it.
You can tail the under on BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Simply sign up and start betting today!
For more on the Jets, check out my 2023 Jets betting preview. For more bets from everyone on the Betting Life team, check out our 100% FREE bet tracker.
💰 It's Time To Up The Ante
And put your Fantasy Football knowledge to the ultimate test...
You've read hundreds of Fantasy Life newsletters, won countless leagues, and now are looking for your newest challenge.
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The NFFC has been bringing high-stakes fantasy football players from all types of backgrounds, offering drafters...
- Contests with buy-ins from $25 to $20,000
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Not only does The NFFC offer a wide array of options for fantasy football nuts, but our guys Ian Hartitz and Dwain McFarland are also drafting there TONIGHT!
Join them both in the RotoWire Online Championship ($350 buy-in) and chase a $250,000 grand prize by signing up and entering below!
Humans are intrinsically flawed creatures, so let’s use that to our advantage. Each week, Cooterdoodle will walk us through the internal mind of a fantasy football player. For better or for worse, let’s get inside those mushy little brains. Let’s go mental!
🧠 The Gambler’s Fallacy
This has nothing to do with betting, to be clear. But we do need to talk about the logical bias that is holding you back in your fantasy football leagues.
Because regardless of how smart you are or how prepared you are for the 2023 season, you can still fall victim to the Gambler’s Fallacy.
You see, our minds try to compensate for us, all of the time. Because of that, we often incorrectly believe that something is less likely to happen in the future if it has already happened many times in the past.
Or vice versa…
We also incorrectly believe that just because something hasn’t happened yet, it is more likely to happen this time around.
Nope. Wrong. Get out of your head.
We’re essentially talking probability here. A coin flip remains a 50/50 probability even after it’s landed on heads 3 times in a row, right?
🤔 So how does this apply to fantasy football?
🏆 Championship Fallacy
We are all very aware that only one person can win your fantasy football championship each year.
Unfortunately, the odds of you winning your league don’t increase just because you’ve lost many times in the past. Sure, you might keep telling yourself, “This is my year.” But your odds haven’t changed.
There are still 11 (or 9, or 13…) other guys competing against you. Just because you’ve lost six years in a row it does not mean that you are more likely to win it this time around. (Do you hear me, Trey?)
Repeat after me: “This isn’t my year. It’s everyone’s year.”
And you need to be on top of your game if you want to win.
🥴 Fizzle Out Fallacy
This is the other side of the gambler's fallacy coin. If something has already happened a few times, it’s less likely to continue to happen again, right?
NOPE. WRONG. Get out of your head.
Each year we hear that certain players can’t not possibly perform well again, just because they’ve done it a few times already.
They’re going to fall off… They’re going to fizzle out…
In 2022, I remember hearing people pass on an elite player simply because, “Travis Kelce can’t do it again.” Well, he did.
In fact, he did it even better. Kecle not only bagged his highest number of TDs in a season (12), but he caught more balls than ever before (110) and had his second-highest yardage season to date (1,338).
Look… I’m not saying you have to draft a TE in the 1st round. I’m not saying you have to do anything at all.
All I’m saying is that if you think a player might ‘fizzle out’, be sure to have some kind of data or reasoning to back up your claim.
New OC? Offseason injury? Rookie competition? Sure. But just simply believing that, ‘they can’t do it again,” isn’t enough.
Don’t pass up on the Justin Jeffersons and Travis Kelces of the world just because of some false belief that they can’t dominate at their position year after year. And don’t go blindly into your drafts thinking that this is “bound to be your year” just because you haven’t won yet.
Come on. Get out of your head.
⚡️ The next QB domino has fallen. There’s a new King in LA.
🦶 “Why do they call it PUP if it’s not cute and cuddly?” Don’t be too worried (yet) about this star RB’s health status.
🏥 Let’s get (a passed) physical. This QB is back and looking as GQ as ever.
🎸 “Hey, can you help me think of a word that rhymes with ‘Brock’?” He’s ready to rock.
🥂 Methuselah was unavailable. Like Ozzy Osbourne, this aged TE is coming home.
🎯 Examining the QB landscape in fantasy. WHO is Dwain’s most-drafted QB?
🐬 Maybe we should let him throw into the end zone on every play? Check out these QB completion rates.
🤠 He could have gone anywhere in the NFL. Well, technically, not Dallas, but still…
👕 In the end, even superstar athletes are just normal people. That’s basically what I wear to work each day.
📺 Cards are on the table. Ian & Dwain are going all-in at 8 PM ET.
Chasing late-round TEs is a tradition unlike any other and today, Ian Hartitz is here to sell us on why THIS YEAR could finally be the year of the late-round TE…
There are seemingly 20-plus fantasy-viable options at the position in August when optimism is running rampant, but by October it’s not uncommon to see every manager yearning for a better option at the position (except for whoever drafted Travis Kelce, of course).
As someone who still has nightmares about unironically thinking Jace Sternberger and Chris Herndon would be good late-round darts back in 2020: I want to be very careful about assuming there is any utility in waiting too long to draft a TE in fantasy football land.
The misses go on and on — but that doesn’t mean late-round TEs never hit.
Specifically, 17 out of the 60 top-six performances at the position over the past 10 years came from players with a preseason ADP ranked outside the top-12 TEs.
10 players even carried a positional ADP as the TE18 or lower.
Similar to QB, the fantasy industry has consistently done a far better job identifying the top-six finishers at the position than the 7-12 group in terms of preseason ADP.
Where the industry has been less solid over the years is at tiering out the fantasy upside from players with similar volume projections. This has led to me preferring a “first or last” strategy at both positions to either
Land a complete stud at the top of the draft who is being priced that high for a reason, giving you the opportunity to only spend one additional draft pick on the position
Throw multiple darts at the late-round group in lieu of overvaluing the middle class.
My favorite builds after completing over 100 best ball drafts have involved getting one of the big-seven TEs in Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, George Kittle, Kyle Pitts, Dallas Goedert and Darren Waller, but I’ve been content to wait quite a bit longer to address the position if unable to do so.
This is thanks in large part to the presence of two prime late-round TEs in addition to a plethora of potential every-down options literally available in the final two rounds of drafts.
🎯 Prime late-round TE options (outside of the first 12 rounds)
⚡️ Chargers TE Gerald Everett (TE16, pick 149.5)
The six-year veteran enjoyed career-best marks in targets (87), receptions (58) and receiving yards (555) alike in 2022, and that doesn’t even include his sterling 6-109-1 performance in the Chargers’ ill-fated Wild Card loss to the Jaguars.
It’s hard to overstate just how impressive that latter performance was. Everett demonstrated some truly ridiculous YAC ability on multiple occasions during the performance, looking like a juiced-up WR with the ball in his hands.
Yes, Everett benefited from both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams missing time in 2022, although neither has exactly been a model of good health during their respective careers.
Also yes, Everett was regularly forced into playing a suboptimal part-time role in an offense that made sure to keep the likes of Donald Parham, Stephen Anderson and/or Tre’ McKitty (meow) also involved under ex-OC Joe Lombardi.
One of the main knocks on Everett is seemingly in reference to the time that he was too tired to make a play on the football against the Chiefs, leading to a game-altering pick-six by Herbert. Remember:
This happened in Week 2 and didn’t impact Everett’s playing time for the rest of the season.
Everett was tired because he had just caught back-to-back passes for 33 yards to get the offense on the goal line in the first place.
The veteran TE literally asked for a breather before the play and shouldn’t have been leaned on in that position.
One single PPR point separated the TE9 and TE15 on a per-game basis last season; the TE2 landscape is generally a shit show, so don’t be afraid to wait on someone like Everett, who combines proven YAC goodness inside of one of the league’s best overall offensive environments.
My most-drafted TE of the offseason: Everett is a full-time role away from vying for weekly top-eight treatment at the position, and even without one he’ll be tough to slide too far down the TE2 ranks thanks to his ability to provide true boom weeks inside of this loaded offense.
Read on about Ian’s other favorite late-round TE to target
