The key to getting to the finals is having all the bust WRs…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:
- Three boom/bust WRs go boom
- Morning Download: Lots of overnight news
- Bets from the Group Chat: Christmas Eve parlay
- Stefon Diggs swag
- Hidden Gems: A top-5 WR ceiling for Week 16.
- It’s 12/24. Take it away Peter Overzet…
Week 16 is far from over, but a theme is starting to emerge after Saturday night’s action.
George Pickens, Tee Higgins, and Gabe Davis—3 highly coveted WRs entering the year who have failed to pay off their cost in drafts—all exploded on limited volume yesterday.
Depending on which format you had them in, this surprise production came at either the perfect time (for your best ball teams) or at the wrong time (on your bench; and/or on your eliminated squad).
Pickens, who has had an up-and-down year (with more downs than ups), went full supernova. All he needed was four catches to drop 195 yards and 2 TDs, including this 86-yard house call a few minutes into the game.
Not to be outdone, Higgins put up one of his better games of the year thanks to a similar slant he took to the house.
In the late game, Davis provided the lone spark in the Bills offense, as he converted his 4 targets into 130 yards and 1 TD.
Now it’s time to see what the NFL scriptwriters have in store for this Christmas Eve slate of games…
🚑 The Colts lose their top WR
It wouldn’t be the fantasy semifinals without a devastating, late scratch for our fantasy teams.
And that’s exactly what unfolded yesterday evening when the Colts announced that Michael Pittman Jr. had been downgraded to out after suffering a concussion relapse.
Pittman, who suffered a brutal hit in Week 15, had initially cleared the NFL’s concussion protocol on Friday, but picked up symptoms on Saturday that placed him back in the protocol.
It’s a big blow for the Colts offense and their push to make the playoffs (they currently have a 68.3% chance to make the postseason according to the Sumer Sports model).
As for who benefits the most in fantasy, the Colts will obviously rely heavily on the run with Jonathan Taylor back in the fold (we broke that down earlier this week) and Zack Moss ruled out (more on that in the Morning Download below).
But I fully agree with Matthew here, that Josh Downs gets a big boost:
For most of the season, Downs has not been too far behind Pittman from a target perspective, so he should step up into a very nice role here. I’d have no problem firing him up as a high-end WR3 with WR2 upside if you are scrambling for points this week.
🌙 Overnight news for Week 16
Read on for more info in the Morning Download on Will Levis, Trevor Lawrence, and the return of Jonathan Taylor.
Some other nuggets to be aware of:
Alexander Mattison is going to play, which puts a slight damper on the Ty Chandler spot start. I lean toward still being willing to play him based on this report.
D’Onta Foreman (personal reasons) is a surprise scratch for the Bears today. Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert both are in play vs. a porous Cardinals defense.
Three Chiefs will not play: Jerick McKinnon, Kadarius Toney, Mecole Hardman, but they will fortunately get Isiah Pacheco back today.
Two TEs—Michael Mayer and Hunter Henry—were also ruled out. Slight bump for Austin Hooper and Mike Gesicki, but I’d avoid if possible.
For everything else you need for Week 16—including our Inactives page, which will update shortly after 11:30 am ET with all of the relevant status updates—you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.
See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:
The NFL landscape is constantly changing, with players’ statuses getting frequent updates throughout the week. Unfortunately, that includes Saturday.
If you were doing something better than following the NFL during the weekend – lucky you – let’s get you caught up on everything you might have missed courtesy of Matt LaMarca...
📉 Will Levis Likely to Sit
Levis is officially listed as questionable, but the indications are that he will not be suiting up on Sunday. ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports that Levis is not expected to play, paving the way for Ryan Tannehill to return to the lineup.
Tannehill has not been a particularly productive QB this season. The Titans are just 2-4 in his six starts, and he’s averaged just 5.7 adjusted yards per attempt with two touchdowns and six interceptions. Levis has been more productive in virtually every measure, so it’s hard not to consider him a downgrade.
That said, it’s possible that Tannehill still might be the better QB. Matthew Freedman has Tannehill as one-point upgrade over Levis in his QB ATS values, so it probably won’t have a huge impact for fantasy purposes.
Of course, you should by no means be actually starting Tannehill in the fantasy postseason. However, guys like DeAndre Hopkins, Derrick Henry, and Tyjae Spears are just as viable as they were with Levis.
📈 Trevor Lawrence Good to Go
Lawrence was a bit of a wildcard this week. He entered the concussion protocol after last week’s loss to the Ravens, so it remained to be seen if he would be able to suit up. However, he’s officially cleared the concussion protocol, so he’s good to go.
However, Lawrence isn’t exactly a slam dunk for your fantasy squads. He’s ranked as the No. 11 QB by Dwain McFarland, but our three other rankers have him outside the top 12.
Lawrence simply hasn’t developed into the stud he was widely expected to become. There’s a good chance that if your team is still playing at this point, you probably have a better QB on your roster. Ultimately, you can use Lawrence if you have to, but there are plenty of better options out there.
Still, his return is undoubtedly a positive for his pass catchers and Travis Etienne.
👀 It’s JT Season
It’s pretty much been a lost year for Jonathan Taylor, but the stars have aligned for him in the crucial Week 16. Zack Moss was officially ruled out despite earning a surprising questionable designation on Friday, so Taylor has the backfield to himself.
The last time Taylor operated as the clear bell-cow back in Indy was back in Week 10. He garnered 89% of the snaps, 88% of the carries, and had a 79% route participation. He finished with just 69 yards against a tough Patriots’ run D, but he managed to find the endzone and scored 14 fantasy points.
With a friendlier matchup on tap vs. the Falcons, the sky is the limit for Taylor in Week 16. He’s ranked as our No. 7 RB for the week, and it should surprise no one if he finishes as the RB1.
Welcome to Week 16 of Bets from the Group Chat. This is where Geoff elicits as much information as he can from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their leans for this week. It’s really a selfish endeavor as he’ll probably be using some of their plays to offset his own losers.
The group chat three-way parlay record moved to 5-6 on the year after we managed to hit a +216 payout on our card from Week 15. The win means we’re up +17.68 units overall on these plays since this started (and the individual plays are 24-8-1).
As always, we have three separate plays from three different sources for our parlay below.
1️⃣ Freedman likes: Gus Edwards over 39.5 rushing yards (-110, BetMGM)
- Projection: 51.9
- Play to: 42.5 (-110)
The Ravens lost Keaton Mitchell for the season last week and Edwards – who went over this total in eight straight games at one point – took 16 carries in the Ravens last game.
The 49ers rank just 29th in defensive rush EPA as well and allowed 8.85 yards per carry to the Cardinals RBs last week.
2️⃣ Jordan likes: Tyler Allgeier over 33.5 rush yards (-115, BetMGM)
- Projection: 39.7
- Play to: 34.5 (-105)
Allgeier’s yardage over still shows a 6-7-yard edge in Week 16, which is pretty similar to the edge we had last week on him.
Given Allegeier has taken no less than 8.0 carries in each of his last 10 games we only need him to be slightly efficient as a rusher to break to the over.
3️⃣ Geoff likes: Josh Reynolds over 1.5 receptions (-133, BetMGM)
- Projection: 1.9
- Play to: 1.5 (-140) or over 20.5 receiving yards (-125)
The Vikings have allowed the fourth fewest rushing yards to opposing RBs but have ceded the fourth-most receptions to opposing WRs.
Reynolds himself has played well of late and has averaged 3.5 targets over his last four games. For the season, he’s also gone for 2.0 or more receptions in 10 of his 14 starts.
🤝 Putting it all together: (+515, BetMGM)
- Gus Edwards over 39.5 rush yards (-110)
- Josh Reynolds over 1.5 receptions (-133)
- Tyler Allgeier over 33.5 rush yards (-117)
You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account here!
📈 Week 15 Ladder Plays: Trey McBride, Cardinals - (BetMGM)
- 75+ rec yards (+155) - play to +150
- 80+ rec yards + anytime TD (+400 - SGP)
- 100+ rec yards (+425) - play to +400
The Bears have had trouble defending against dynamic TEs like McBride. Last week they allowed David Njoku to go for a career-high 10 catches and they have now allowed five TDs to the TE position over their last seven games.
I don't trust Bears head coach Matt Eberflus to make the proper adjustments for this game either, and with the Cardinals receiving core banged up, McBride seems destined to approach his ceiling in targets (he’s averaged 9 targets over his last five games).
For betting purposes laddering up to 100+ yards makes sense, but given how poorly the Bears have defended against TEs I like including a same-game parlay that includes an anytime TD as well.
🔥 No one has more swag than Stefon Diggs. You couldn’t pull this off.
🚑️ A full injury roundup for Week 16. That’s a long list.
💰 Looking for Week 16 best bets? That was rhetorical, we know you are. And we have them (for FREE).
🧨 This RB is about to explode. Mike McDaniel wouldn’t lie to us.
💔 Week 16’s best Pick’em plays. Lower your love for Love?
🏆 $150,000 could be yours! How to dominate playoff best ball.
⚾️ Shohei Ohtani loves Puka Nacua. ONE OF US! ONE OF US!
🎁 A nice Christmas present for Cairo Santos. That’s good work if you can get it.
🔨 Break out the tool kits. Week 16 bets to hammer.
🤣 David Njoku is hilarious. What a comment.
🤫 George Pickens is done with the chirping. Shut it down, Bengals.
Everyone knows the best plays. Justin Fields, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson. But what about the sleepers no one else is on? Those are the guys that can vault you to the top of the leaderboard. In this weekly piece, Pete will go treasure hunting for Hidden Gems that you can draft in Battle Royale contests on Underdog Fantasy and in DFS contests.
For Week 16, I have two RB plays and a veteran WR I like in drafts. At the end, I’ll give a few thoughts about the QB and TE positions, which are much trickier to navigate this week.
As a reminder, you can put these strategies into practice on Underdog, where you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up with promo code LIFE.
💎 WR: DeAndre Hopkins - Titans (ADP: 33.6)
DeAndre Hopkins is a complete afterthought who rarely gets drafted, but the Titans get a soft matchup vs. a Seahawks secondary that has given up the 7th most points to opposing WRs.
Hopkins is the exact type of WR archetype that we want to target in these contests:
Great target floor (he’s averaging 8 per game on the year, but 11 over his past three)
High aDOT (16.2) that can translate to big plays (he’s had 2 games with over 200 air yards in the past three weeks)
A role in the RedZone (has 5 endzone targets over the past three weeks)
Put it all together and you have a WR profile with a decent floor and a massive ceiling who could certainly finish as a Top 5 WR on the slate.
