The wheels on the RB bus go round and round, round and round...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by SailGP:
- Get well soon, J.K. Dobbins!
- Rankings Update. A rookie WR on the RISE.
- Dear Pete. To play or not to play Fútbol.
- Bets from the group chat. Three rushing overs.
- Roster Watch Top DFS Value Plays
- Its 10/22. Take it away Dwain McFarland...
J.K. Dobbins will have knee surgery and miss the next four to six weeks of action, leaving the Ravens' backfield pecking order up in the air. Dobbins can be released in small to medium-sized leagues — when he returns, the Ravens aren't going to rush to give him a large workload.
Kenyan Drake took over 58% of the snaps last weekend and handled 43% of the rushing attempts, but only Mike Davis was available to challenge for work. Justice Hill out-snapped Drake in Weeks 2 to 4 before suffering a hamstring injury that kept him out of action the last two games. Hill was removed from the injury report this week and will play in Week 7.
Gus Edwards is nearing the end of his 21-day window for activation off of the PUP list, or the Ravens must put him on permanent IR. Earlier this week, Greg Roman indicated Edwards was close to returning. We could see him active for Week 7.
The Ravens likely won't put a heavy workload on Edwards' plate right away. But he could be the best season-long option as he returns to health, especially if Dobbins suffers any setbacks. He should be rostered in deep formats and is available in 70% of Yahoo! leagues.
All of this to say, we will likely see a continued committee approach on a team that calls the most designed rushing plays for their superstar QB Lamar Jackson (27%). The season-high for rushing attempts by a Ravens' RB is 13 by Dobbins in Week 4.
The Ravens face a Browns defense offering up the eighth-most rushing yards per game in non-overtime play (158), along with 2.2 TDs per game. So, there is an opportunity for fantasy points this weekend.
Consider Drake as a mid-range RB3 option with some upside in Week 7 should the Ravens ride the hot hand. However, we could see Hill or Edwards lead the way or render everyone unusable in a heavy rotation.
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📈 Risers
📈 RB – Damien Harris
Harris practiced in full on Friday and was removed from the injury report. The fourth-year RB handled 49% of the Patriots' rushing attempts over the first four games before injuring his hamstring in Week 5.
We should anticipate a similar role on Monday, with the Patriots favored by eight points against a Bears defense that allows the most non-overtime rushing attempts per game (40.4). Harris should be good for 14 to 16 attempts and 60 to 70 yards with a shot at a TD.
Harris is a low-end RB2.
📈 WR – Garrett Wilson
With Elijah Moore out this weekend, we should see Wilson approach his season-high in route participation (86%) against the Broncos. He currently leads the team in target share (22%) by seven percentage points. His targets per route (TPRR) are even stronger at 25%.
Denver has the No. 1 PFF coverage grade (90.6), so the matchup won’t be easy. Wilson will likely have to take more reps outside, with Braxton Berrios taking over the slot duties. However, the Broncos play the third-most zone coverage in the NFL, so the Jets can keep their first-rounder away from Patrick Surtain II if they choose.
The path to victory for the Jets might not be a heavy passing attack against a lackluster Denver offense. Despite the matchup and game environment challenges (38-point game total), the allure of expanded route participation is enough to move the rookie target earner up the ranks.
Wilson is a mid-range WR3 with upside in Week 7.
📈 TE – Gerald Everett
The Chargers won’t have Joshua Palmer, and Keenan Allen (hamstring) is a game-time decision. If Allen can’t go or is limited, Everett could become the clear No. 3 option behind Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler.
Los Angeles drops back to pass more than the NFL average in leading, close and trailing game scripts and could be in a shootout situation against the Seahawks with the highest game total on the slate.
Everett is a mid-range TE1 this weekend.
📉 Fallers
📉 RB – Christian McCaffrey
McCaffrey is trending toward playing on Sunday, but his utilization could be dramatically restricted due to a limited understanding of the playbook.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan eluded to the possibility of some designed red zone looks, which would give CMC a chance to come through for fantasy managers with a TD, and maybe Jimmy Garoppolo can hit him on a pass or two.
McCaffrey falls into low-end RB2 territory but can remain in lineups ahead of other part-time options like Travis Etienne Jr., Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kareem Hunt and A.J. Dillon.
📉 RB – Rhamondre Stevenson
Stevenson will have company on Monday Night Football with Damien Harris removed from the injury report. The second-year back handled 41% of rushing attempts over the first four weeks with Harris – much less than his 74% and 63% marks over the last two games.
Stevenson Utilization:
Stevenson will likely retain most passing-down work, keeping his utilization profile in the high-end RB2 range. However, the Patriots have a great matchup against Chicago, and Harris might not be 100%.
Stevenson downgrades from a high-end RB1 to a high-end RB2 option for Week 7.
📉 RB – Jeff Wilson, Jr.
Wilson is in a fragile position with the arrival of Christian McCaffrey. He should still lead the team in carries this weekend, but he was already a downgrade due to the potential for a trailing game script against the Chiefs.
McCaffrey could steal looks inside the 20-yard line, which could turn Wilson into a 10-12 touch player without any receptions or chances to score.
Wilson is a mid-range RB3 in Week 7.
Feeling lost in life? Need help with your fantasy football team? Pete is here to help. Send your questions about fantasy, or life to dearpete@fantasylife.com.
Dear Pete, love the XM show with you and Kendall. I got a couple of questions for ya…I don’t know what to do with my flex spot in this PPR league. I haven’t been able to choose correctly between DeVonta Smith and Gabe Davis, with both of their 30-point scores in the bench spot. I also have some RBs in contention for my flex (Jeff Wilson Jr., Raheem Mostert, Brian Robinson, and Travis Etienne, for example). What should be the deciding factor each week?
Life question. My son is a D1 soccer player who’s only played 20 minutes in two years. He has a few games left in his sophomore year. He scored 40/40 goals and assists in high school and won multiple state championships, but his team recently took in 11 upperclassmen transfers pushing him to the bench. Should he stick it out or hit the transfer portal?— Soccer Dad Searching For Answers
DEAR SOCCER DAD SEARCHING FOR ANSWERS: There are two ways to get me to answer start/sit questions: 1) calling into Sirius XM 11 am-1 pm Monday-Friday or 2) trojan horsing it in with an interesting life question (take notes, Dear Pete readers).
I can relate to your son’s predicament on a couple of levels…
During my freshman year of high school, I made the soccer team but couldn’t sniff the field. One game early in the season, we were blowing the doors off an opponent. Deep into the second half, I went up to the coach and said, “Hey, we’re up 8-0. If I’m not going in now, when am I ever going to?”
He didn’t take his eyes off the field and, while staring straight ahead, said a beautifully devastating line that I’ll never forget: “If it’s not broken, I don’t fix it.”
I quit the next day.
Later on, in high school, my basketball playing time took a massive hit when our coach recruited multiple all-state transfers, including a 6’8” foreign exchange student from the Netherlands who could stroke it from deep. Needless to say, my 5’7” package of grit and tenacity were no longer in hot demand. It was a demoralizing runout after devoting so much time to the sport.
My guess is deep down, your son already knows the right decision for him. Outside of soccer, does he love his university? Does he have a bunch of friends he’d be sad to leave behind? If he is lukewarm on the whole environment and passionate about chasing the soccer dream, a change of scenery could be in order. I never played sports at that level–and I can only imagine how hard it is to let go of that dream–but my guess is in 10-15 years, the non-soccer memories from college will be the ones he cherishes the most.
As for your flex situation...I think you might need to hit the transfer portal and find yourself a ringer.
What I’m trying to say is you have great depth but no Top 30 players. I love both Gabe and Devonta and would continue to start one of them (Gabe in most situations) over those RBs, but I think the real move would be to package one of them and an RB for a premium asset you’d feel comfortable starting each week. See if you can get a Justin Jefferson or Davante Adams in exchange for a package.
🤕 A late-game WR who is a game-time decision. He has a good chance to play.
🤬 Wow, Kyler was really upset with Kliff. A lot was said.
🤞 We could get a veteran WR back in Week 7. This sounds positive.
📷 Deebo and CMC look dope together. Pretty sure he can jump, though.
❓ Want to get your fantasy questions answered by Dwain McFarland every Sunday? Well, you're in luck.
🌋 An eruption game is coming for this young star. Trust the data.
📊 Four teams clearly lead the way in pace and projected points. Plus, two kitty cats.
🎱 Is DeAndre Hopkins washed? Don’t count on it.
Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what Eliot came up with for Week 7...
🔥 Kenneth Walker over 67.5 Rushing Yards -115
With Rashaad Penny out for the year, Kenneth Walker wasted no time showing why he was a second-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. He played 69% of the snaps and handled 91.3% of the team running back carries - that is elite usage.
Now he takes on a leaky Chargers run defense that gives up the second-most yards per carry at 5.6 yards.
They've allowed three running backs to rush for over 100 yards in the last four weeks. The one back who didn’t was Latavius Murray, who finished with 66 yards. Murray didn't even start the game for Denver after being on the practice squad two weeks prior.
We have Walker projected for 85.3 rushing yards, giving him an implied 11.1% edge of his current rushing prop of 67.5 yards.
🔥 Josh Jacobs over 81.5 Rushing Yards -115
Jacobs has been dominant - ranking top 3 in juke rate, evaded tackles, and yards created per Player Profiler.
In Week 7, Jacobs and the Raiders host the lowly Houston Texans, who have allowed the most fantasy points per game to RBs. They have been brutalized on the ground allowing 5 yards per carry to RBs, and rank 29th in explosive rush rate allowed.
Jacobs has the largest edge of any running back per our projections of the entire slate, as we have him going 31.8 yards over his total.
🔥 Ezekiel Elliott over 64.5 Rushing Yards -115
The Lions can’t stop a nosebleed and rank 31st in defensive rushing DVOA. So, expect the Cowboys to look to exploit that weakness on Sunday. With Dak Prescott returning from his finger injury, the Cowboys may look to play it more conservatively and feed Zeke.
Ezekiel Elliott is coming off his best game of the season, where he forced four missed tackles and had three runs of over 10 yards. Big plays have eluded Elliott over the past few years, so this is a massive step in the right direction for him.
Chunk plays on the ground should continue against a Lions defense that is dead last in both EPA per rush attempt and explosive run rate. With a projected workload of 19.2 carries, Zeke should have the volume and matchup to sail over this total.
Playing the best players is easy enough, but value is where it's at in DFS. Every other week Alex from Roster Watch will be dropping by the Fantasy Life offices to give you his top DFS values of the week.
💰 Wan'Dale Robinson, WR Giants
- $4,500 on DraftKings
The dynamic rookie re-emerged from injury in Week 6 and made a big impact on the Giants offense despite a low snap count of just 23%.
Robinson caught 3 balls on 4 targets for 37 yards and a TD. The touchdown catch was a play call clearly dialed up specifically for Robinson, who is the Giants' current best-receiving option, and already the second-best non-QB skill player on offense.
Robinson was being eased in during Week 6, and he'll certainly see his involvement rise after getting acclimated. Even on just 23% of snaps, Robinson (who operated primarily out of the slot) earned as many targets in Week 6 as fellow Giants WR Marcus Johnson (4 targets on 62% of snaps) and more than Darius Slayton (3 targets) who played 69% of snaps.
The Giants face a Jaguars defense in Week 7 that's given up over-expectation fantasy outcomes to the only prominent slot WRs it has faced in 2022 thus far: Curtis Samuel (8 receptions, 55 yards receiving, 17 yards rushing, 1 TD) and Parris Campbell (7 receptions, 57 yards, 1 TD).
💰 Kenneth Walker III, RB Seahawks
- $5,800 on DraftKings
Due to Rashaad Penny's season-ending injury, the NFL world got to see a glimpse of KW3's upside as a true feature-back in Week 6.
His price ($5800) isn’t exactly a pittance, but it's far too cheap considering Walker's talent, new role, and matchup against the Chargers (the 7th-best matchup of the week for opposing runners according to the RosterWatch Matchup Tool).
We saw in Week 6 that worries regarding Walker's passing game usage and fears of DeeJay Dallas cutting into the workload were far overblown. Walker received 3 targets (to DeeJay Dallas' zero) in Week 6 against the Cardinals while collecting 23 touches for 110 total yards and TD, looking absolutely full of juice. Keep riding him until he's priced like the fantasy asset that he is.
Check out RosterWatch for more great content from Alex and the rest of the team.
