The NFL is better when Josh Allen and the Bills are winning…
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM:
- Bills: They could win the AFC East…
- Adjusted Scores: Chiefs “win” in loss.
- Early Lines: Can anyone stop the 49ers?
- What Happens in Vegas: Three points…
- MNF (x2): Football at its finest.
- It’s 12/11: Take it away, Matthew Freedman…
As I’m writing this, SNF is about to kick off. May the gambling gods grant my Cowboys strength, mercy, and grace.
In the meantime, here’s a pick-six of Week 14 tidbits.
🌧️ What Weather?
Early in the week, it looked like the 1 pm ET slate would be heavily impacted by weather, and totals dropped.
By Sunday, however, the weather forecast improved, and the over in the five early outdoor games went 4-1 (52.7% ROI, per Action Network).
Weather matters, but last week bettors gave it too much weight.
👍 Bills Still Alive
On last week’s “Bigger Picture” episode of the Betting Life Podcast, I was joined by Brandon Anderson, who made the case for the Bills to win the AFC East.
With their 20-17 win over the Chiefs, their divisional hopes are still alive. If they beat the Cowboys this coming week (they’re favored at home by -1.5 to -2.5), and if the Dolphins lose to the Cowboys and Ravens in Weeks 16-17, then the Bills could be hosting the Dolphins in Week 18 with the AFC East on the line.
📈 Brock Purdy MVP?
Unless both QBs stink on SNF, I expect that whoever wins tonight out of Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts will be the MVP frontrunner this coming week. Even so, I continue to think that 49ers QB Brock Purdy — who currently leads the week with 368 yards passing — is the most “realistic” MVP candidate.
He’s not the best player in the league, but he’s No. 1 in EPA + CPOE (0.215, per RBs Don’t Matter). He has beaten both Prescott and Hurts in head-to-head matchups. Hurts has experienced year-over-year regression. And Prescott — despite having MVP-caliber production — probably won’t get the award if the Cowboys don’t win the NFC East, and they’re still dogs to win the division.
If Purdy continues to pile on the production, and if the 49ers finish with a top-two seed (especially the No. 1 seed), it will be hard for voters to deny him.
I have a 50-1 MVP ticket on Purdy from the offseason logged in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.
☠️ HC Antonio Pierce
The Raiders are 10-3 (47.1% ROI) to the under this year, and with interim HC Antonio Pierce, they are 4-1 (53.3% ROI).
Since Pierce assumed control of the team in Week 9, the defense is No. 4 in EPA (-0.132), and the offense has played with a conservative ball-control style.
The Raiders are a dead under team until we see something different.
🏆 Coach of the Year?
Entering Week 14, HCs Dan Campbell, DeMeco Ryans, and Shane Steichen looked like they were in a three-way race for Coach of the Year.
And then the Lions, Texans, and Colts all lost.
This award isn’t wide open, but the door is now ajar.
💩 NFC South
In yesterday’s Betting Life Newsletter, I highlighted the Buccaneers at +400 as a viable contender for the NFC South.
Following their 29-25 win over the Falcons, they’re now in a three-way tie with the Falcons and Saints at 6-7.
This division is grosser than a fecal medical sample, but the Bucs might just be the least stinky team of the bunch.
Kevin Cole is the proprietor of Unexpected Points, and each week he provides his “adjusted scores” for every game based on the underlying production data. Here is an excerpt from his advanced game reviews for Week 14.
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special teams, penalties, fumble luck, etc.).
📊 Adjusted Scores Table
- “Pass”: Pass rate over expectation (based on the context of each play and historical averages)
- “Success”: Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs. actual score
- “H & A”: Home or away team
🤷♂️ Chiefs vs. Bills
- Final Score: 17-20
- Adjusted Score: 23-20
For the first time this season, the Bills won a game they should have lost by the adjusted scores, having had a handful of results go in the other direction earlier this year. Two big turnovers for the Chiefs outweigh a much less costly one for the Bills. The controversy surrounding some calls and non-calls that went against the Chiefs aren’t part of the adjusted scores formula.
This was, by no means, the shootout that we’d hope for in a Chiefs-Bills matchup. Both teams hit the 99th percentile for EPA efficiency when they faced each other in the playoffs two years ago but were middling in this one. Both teams were okay running the ball, with Jerick McKinnon’s 7-yard TD on 3rd & 4 the most positive play of the game.
In a season with lots of elite performances, Josh Allen got the W with a poor game. Both he and Patrick Mahomes made too many mistakes with little upside passing down the field.
As it stands going into SNF, I have the Bills with a 40% chance to make the playoffs, which will jump to near 60% with a win against the Cowboys at home next week. The Chiefs now have less than a 10% chance to secure the No. 1 seed and AFC playoff bye, meaning this might be the first time Mahomes goes on the road on a potential Super Bowl run.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers
- Final Score: 25-29
- Adjusted Score: 25-20
The battle for the NFC South (someone has to win the division, I guess), is now in high dispute with the Falcons falling to the Bucs. The birds were better by my adjusted numbers, but big mistakes took them down in this one.
Desmond Ridder did his normal thing with a bad INT (-6 EPA) and a horrendous-looking fumble-safety. Plus, the normally reliable Younghoe Koo missed two field goals, although both were from 50-plus yards out.
Despite mistakes on both sides, the offenses produced enough big plays to provide about average efficiencies.
Baker Mayfield somehow got to positive EPA on the day despite completing fewer than half of his passes (14 of 29) and averaging just 5.0 yards per attempt. He didn’t make many mistakes (one sack for two yards), and the Bucs stuck to the running game (-17.7% pass rate over expectation).
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Speaking of first bets, read on to see who our team likes for today’s massive NBA slate AND the Monday Night Football slate!
Cavaliers (+2.5) at Magic (-110; BetMGM)
Are you buying the Magic? They’re fifth in Net Rating, trailing only the Celtics, Timberwolves, Thunder, and 76ers. That’s translated to a 15-7 record, as this team has played as well as anyone to start the year.
Still, I’m a bit skeptical, and I can’t resist grabbing the Cavs as underdogs in this spot. Cleveland has struggled and are without Evan Mobley, but this was a very good basketball team last year (51 wins, second-best Net Rating).
Finding early betting value — and grabbing as much closing line value (CLV) as possible — is one of the easiest ways to become a better bettor. Matt LaMarca dives into a few bets to consider attacking early in the week.
✈️ Jets (+13.0) at Dolphins
- Current Line: Jets +13.0 (-110; FanDuel)
- Target Range: Jets +12.0 or better
As crazy as it sounds, I’m officially a believer in Zach Wilson. He reportedly had a fantastic week of practice, and for one of the first times in his career, it seemed like he was having fun on Sunday. He finished with one of the best games of his career — 301 passing yards, two TDs — in an upset victory over the Texans.
I don’t expect Wilson to play that well every week, but the problems throughout his career have been 100% mental. If he is finally in a good mindset, it wouldn’t shock me if he played his best football down the stretch.
The good news for the Jets is that they don’t need that level of performance from Wilson on most weeks. Their defense is phenomenal, entering Week 14 they were fourth in EPA/play. After limiting presumptive Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud and the Texans to just six points, that number is only going up.
The Jets D will have its hands full vs. the Dolphins, but it does have a few things working for it. For starters, the Jets have the benefit of an extra day of rest, with the Dolphins playing on MNF in Week 14.
Double-digit divisional underdogs have also historically been solid investments. They’re 149-123-9 dating back to the start of the 2005 season.
This number is already down as low as 10.5 at some locations, and it’s wild to see that wide of a differential, even on openers. I expect this number to settle somewhere between 10.5 and 12.0, so grabbing a +13.0 now seems like a sharp decision.
⛏️ 49ers (-13.5) at Cardinals
- Current Line: 49ers -13.5 (-110; FanDuel)
- Target Range: 49ers -13.5 or better
On the opposite end of the spectrum, I’m continuing to ride with this absolute juggernaut. The 49ers didn’t come through for those who got them late in the week, but it was still another really easy victory in a somewhat tricky spot. Seattle isn’t a bad team — and there was a bit of letdown potential after beating the Eagles — but the 49ers still outgained Seattle by more than 200 yards. If not for a late Brandon Aiyuk fumble deep in Seattle territory, this likely would’ve been another easy cover and victory regardless of what number you grabbed the 49ers at.
I don’t expect them to take their foot off the gas vs. the Cardinals in Week 15.
While Seattle was still playing for a playoff spot, the Cardinals have officially entered tanking season. They would own the No. 3 pick if the draft started today, but they’re tied with the Patriots for the second-worst record in football.
My power ratings put this game comfortably on the other side of 14, and the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings aren’t far off.
This number is already at 14.0 at plenty of locations across the industry, so I’m not missing out on the best number with San Fran for the second straight week.
0️⃣ So close! These two teams nearly broke an 80-year streak.
👎 They choose… poorly. The sportsbooks were a pretty big fan of the suckfest in Las Vegas.
🧑🚀 Houston, we have a problem. Safe to say this guy is not a fan of the Passtronaut.
🤕 Another one bites the dust. Death, taxes, and another big injury to a marquee QB.
🚑 He wasn’t the only QB that went down in Week 14. But how valuable is each to his team?
🧀 One WR out means opportunity for another. Best TD bet for MNF.
🎯 They did what?! Some unexpected names had big weeks at the QB position.
2️⃣ They did good (but it still sucked). A late two-point try by the Jags made sense but had massive implications for bettors.
🎭 At least he didn’t drop the lateral. It’s been a rough year for Chiefs WRs, and it got even rougher this Sunday.
📺 Need more bets for MNF? We’ve got you covered before kickoff.
For Monday Night Football, we get two simultaneous games featuring Dolphins vs. Titans and Giants vs. Packers. Here are some of Geoff Ulrich’s favorite bets for the games…
🐬 Best Bet: Dolphins -13.5 (-105; DraftKings)
- Bet to: -13.5 (-120)
The Dolphins have been the most obvious bet in the world the last two weeks and it still hasn’t mattered. They handled a tricky Jets defense on Black Friday, covering a -9.5 spread with ease, and then covered the two TDs against the Commanders with even more ease.
This week, they take on a Titans team whose secondary is 25th in completion percentage against and who allows 7.1 yards per attempt (26th in the league). Tua Tagovailoa has also been great in this spot for betting going 16-6 ATS at home for his career and 9-3 ATS as a favorite of 4.0 points or more (per The Action Network).
The strength of the Titans’ defense (ability to stop the run) also may not matter much. Miami is second in EPA per rush and fourth in rush success rate (per RBSDM.com) and has rookie De’Von Achane fully healthy (see below).
Ultimately, any argument against a Dolphins cover just seems somewhat flimsy, given how weak Tennessee’s secondary and O-Line is, making Miami the side to back.
🐬 Ladder Bet: De’Von Achane (DraftKings)
- 80+ rush yards (+220): Bet to +200
- 90+ rush yards (+340): Bet to +320
- 100+ rush yards (+500): Bet to +470
Achane is coming off a game where he took 50% of the carries and played on 59% of the snaps. While you could argue that some of that was circumstance, with the Dolphins up big late, the exact same scenario is likely to exist this week against the Titans who are +13.5 underdogs.
Achane has excelled whenever he’s been able to stay on the field this year. In the four games where he’s taken eight or more carries he’s gone for over 100 yards rushing on three occasions.
The Titans don’t grade out as the greatest matchup on paper but they can certainly be worn down. They allowed 8.0 yards per carry to Jaylen Warren earlier in Week 9, and 165 yards rushing to Zach Moss in Week 6 — two games they trailed nearly the entire way.
Miami has ultimately proven they can run on anyone (second in EPA per rush on offense) and laddering up Achane gives us access to the immense upside of this offense.
🧀 Player Prop: Dontayvion Wicks (+116, FanDuel SGP)
- Over 2.5 receptions
- Over 31.5 receiving yards
Wicks is in a great spot this Monday Night with Christian Watson (hamstring) officially ruled out. The 22-year-old has had a legitimate role in the Green Bay passing attack all season, managing to carve out targets (four or more targets in five straight games) despite seeing under 50% of the snaps most weeks.
Wicks is also a bigger-bodied receiver who has been able to convert 76% of his catches over the last four games making this 2.5 reception total look exceedingly low.
You could certainly just play the over on the receptions (as long as the price stays in the -120 to -130 range) but given that Wicks has a solid 11.36 aDOT I like combining the two props and playing both overs together at bigger odds.
