🤔 Bounce-back targets or fades

Watch out, Kenny Pickett. Someone’s coming for your crown…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

• Bounce-back players to target and fade. Get the scoop.
• Dynasty Decoding: The Packers’ backfield
• Mitch Trubisky gets an extension
• Team Preview: New York Jets
• It's 5/19. Take it away, Kendall Valenzuela.

Look, it’s the middle of May, and leading off with Mitch Trubisky’s extension as the “big story of the day” would just be plain wrong (sorry, Steelers fans).

During this time of year, it’s hard to determine the overly optimistic reports with the reality of some players' positions within their team. Don’t worry. That’s where we come in.

We are 111 days out until the 2023 NFL season begins, so let’s weed through some fantasy players that are teetering on the line of potential bounce-back seasons — are we buying in or fading?

✅ Keenan Allen

Chargers WR Keenan Allen was one of the more frustrating fantasy players in 2022. He suffered setbacks to his ACL injury last year but ultimately got his contract restructured, clearing $8.9 million off the salary cap and keeping the wide receiver in Los Angeles for another season.

Despite missing games in 2022, Allen was still that high-end target earner, locking in an average target share of 27% in nine healthy outings. It was obvious that he was Justin Herbert’s clear No. 1 option, especially in third and fourth down situations where he garnered a 38% target share.

Allen turned 31 in April, which is an age where a sudden drop-off could occur, but he still has WR1 upside in a high-end offense. Let’s buy-in.

❌ Najee Harris

Najee Harris was a first-round pick in 2022 fantasy drafts but finished the season as RB13 and was a big disappointment for fantasy managers. So should we have trust issues going into 2023?

The expectations of having a fully healthy Harris could be enough to justify taking the third-year running back — couple that with QB Kenny Pickett having a full season under his belt, and there might be something there.

Dwain McFarland currently has Harris ranked 13th among running backs, locking him in Tier 4 territory. If the Steelers play better, then touchdowns could come Harris’ way since he was the primary ball handler inside the five yard-line last year.

BUT Jaylen Warren took the long-down-distance role, cutting Harris’s route participation to 47%. If you believe Warren was the more efficient player, then an even larger role could be waiting for him in 2023. Consider Harris an RB to fade in Rounds 3 and 4.

✅ Russell Wilson

It can’t get much worse, right??? That phrase pretty much sums up how bad QB Russell Wilson was during his first season with the Denver Broncos.

How bad was it? Wilson ranked 12th in EPA per play from 2014-2021 in Seattle but was 26th in 2022.

On the positive side, Wilson did show signs of life toward the end of the season, posting 24 or more points in three of his last four outings.

I really do want to believe with Nathaniel Hackett out and Sean Payton in, that the coaching staff will get more out of Wilson. It’s somewhat obvious that the Broncos won’t deploy a pass-heavy attack, but with the coaching changes and the talent in Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, and maybe even Marvin Mims around him, things could be looking good. I’m cautiously buying in.

❓ Kyle Pitts

COME ON, WE HAD TO!

A fantasy player who can end friendships simply from debate, Falcons TE Kyle Pitts is a mystery bag. On the one hand, Pitts may have been dealt a bad hand. Not only did he suffer a knee injury in Week 11, but he had the worst catchable target rate of any tight end with at least 200 routes last season — only 59% were deemed catchable according to PFF.

On the other hand, who the hell would want to risk another bad season from the tight end? You can find Pitts as a trendy bounce-back candidate, and even Dwain McFarland has Pitts ranked 49th compared to an Underdog ADP of 60. Here it might just come down to preference and pride.

There’s an “I told you so” situation on both ends, and I am so excited to see where it falls. I’m taking the risk, not EVERY time, but I do believe the Falcons can be more functional.

What say you?

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With dynasty startup drafts in full swing, Sam Wallace helps fantasy managers decode crowded backfields.

🏈 Green Bay Packers

Aaron Jones (ADP RB26) vs AJ Dillon (ADP RB32)

The Jordan Love era has officially begun.

As a new chapter begins in Green Bay, the once fantasy-friendly offense will have a much different look and feel this season.

Aaron Jones (28 years old) and AJ Dillon (25), yearly staples for the Packers, both figure to remain heavily involved as each has topped 170 carries in consecutive seasons.

The challenging piece for dynasty managers is deciding which player to select in startup drafts.

KTC, a crowd-sourced rankings site, has Jones (RB26) a few slots ahead of Dillon (RB32). Normally, I’m all for getting younger in dynasty, especially at RB, but Jones’ profile is intriguing.

First, he’s the clear No. 1 option in this backfield and has a proven track record of fantasy production. Jones has finished as a top-10 option in PPR formats in four straight seasons. By comparison, Dillon has never finished higher than RB23.

Second, the value of targets cannot be overstated. Ian Hartitz recently said, “Historically, one target is equal to about 2.7 carries in terms of expected PPR points.”

Jones’ 264 targets since 2019 ranks fifth among all RBs.

Finally, while the Packers added offensive help via the draft, he remains the 1A of the backfield. In his Fantasy Fixers piece, Jonathan Fuller suggested that “...the priorities on draft day should be building the defense and adding talented pass catchers to support their young QB”.

Green Bay certainly did both with their selections in the first two rounds.

Even with the influx of talented youth, Love will need to rely on his veterans. Jones is arguably one of the most talented pass-catchers on the roster and should continue to be a focal point of this offense.

His age is concerning, but for the next two years, I will take Jones over Dillon in dynasty leagues, especially in PPR formats.

Find MORE Fantasy Value

😂 Shannon Sharpe is a treasure. Call the National Guard!

🍎 The Giants Draft Room looked suspenseful. Who needs Succession?

👀 Early TE rankings from Matthew Berry. Kyle Pitts fans unite.

🥶️ Best stat line ever? Best stat line ever.

😎 Week 1 Odds are out. Get these lines before they move!

💰 The Steelers are extending their QB2. Watch out Kenny Pickett.

📰 Commanders update. No vote during the Spring League Meeting.

✈️ RB tiers have landed. We love those Round 3 options.

‼️ We’re BACK on SXM! Join Kendall and Dwain today.

Fantasy Life senior analyst Ian Hartitz is breaking down all 32 NFL teams over the next two months. Let’s take a look at the Jets, who enter the year with new optimism…

👑 RBs

• Breece Hall (RB11)
• Michael Carter (RB59)
• Israel Abanikanda (RB70)
• Zonovan Knight (RB85)

Hall tore his ACL in Week 7 last season but had minimal meniscus damage, per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. Dr. Edwin Porras says to expect a very similar recovery to what Saquon Barkley had in 2021 (hopefully without the fluke re-aggravation). Dr. Jeff Mueller notes that Hall is trending toward being a full go by Week 1; he’s far more concerned about Javonte Williams’ recovery.

The first few weeks have the potential to be annoying, but early reports indicate the rising second-year talent is “expected to be ready for Week 1.”

I’m not holding this injury against Hall when it comes to his 2023 fantasy ranking; the more concerning possibility is that he won’t receive the sort of ridiculous workload needed to post top-10 fantasy numbers.

Reminder: New offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett also found himself coaching a studly second-year RB in Javonte Williams last year in Denver. Fantasy managers weren’t thrilled even before Williams was lost for the season.

It’s worth noting that Hackett and the Packers also didn’t make a habit of force-feeding No. 1 RB Aaron Jones over the years, although the Jets OC did give young Leonard Fournette some big-time workloads during his years in Jacksonville.

Nobody is debating Hall’s standing as an awesome young RB. No RB averaged more yards per carry (5.8) or had a better Elusive Rating (100) than the Jets’ rising second-year RB among 55 backs with at least 75 carries last year. Throw in a CMC-esque two yards per route run, and it’s easy to envision Hall putting up bonkers fantasy numbers with a featured role.

Hall worked as the RB7 in PPR points per game last season, but he fell to the RB12 in expected PPR points per game. The good news is that the Jets’ lack of serious offseason investment in the position is a good sign that Hall will work as the clear lead back in 2022.

I had a hard time getting behind Hall’s early offseason ADP as the overall RB8, but am much more fine throwing some darts at him as more of a borderline RB1.

While I have guys like Tony Pollard, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb and Rhamondre Stevenson ranked higher – they’re pretty damn good, too – Hall comes in ahead of veteran backs like Joe Mixon and Dalvin Cook in addition to less proven fellow youngsters like Jahmyr Gibbs and Travis Etienne.

And then there’s Carter, who took a step back in 2022 after posting the position’s second-best missed tackle forced rate as a rookie. A late-season ankle sprain didn’t help matters, but even before the Jets proved unwilling to hand him a featured role by keeping Ty Johnson involved and even trading for James Robinson. While Carter could leap into the RB3 discussion with an injury to Hall, his lack of steady standalone value and minimal best-case upside leaves him outside my top 50 players at the position.

Get the FULL preview!

PLUS, get Ian Hartitz & Dwain McFarland diving DEEP into the Jets in our podcast preview.

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