Russell Wilson needs a new publicist...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by SailGP:
- CMC is headed to San Fran!
- Leave a candle on for these 3 players
- JMToWin's Week 7 DFS Tips
- When will Tom Brady retire?
- Geoff's bets: Bengals, Godwin & more
- Matthew's Love/Hate for Week 7
- Linda's Kicking It: Top kicker plays
- The Walkthrough: A Lions stack
- It's 10/21. Take it away, Peter Overzet
A surprisingly entertaining TNF game was wrapping up last night when we got the bombshell news that the 49ers had acquired RB Christian McCaffrey from the Panthers in exchange for draft picks:
Trade summary:
49ers get - Christian McCaffrey
Panthers get - 2nd-round pick, 3rd-round pick, 4th-round pick, 5th-round pick— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL)
Oct 21, 2022
Yes, you read that correctly: CMC goes from one of the worst offenses in football to the best running scheme in the league led by Kyle Shanahan (who, by the way, loves him some RBs).
Not only is his fantasy season saved, the 25+ point per game upside that initially turned CMC into a fantasy superstar is firmly back within the range of outcomes.
One important note: it sounds like CMC is unlikely to play this weekend:
49ers' RB Christian McCaffrey is scheduled to fly to San Francisco on Friday, when he will meet his new teammates and begin to learn the new playbook. It will be challenging to have him in uniform Sunday vs. the Chiefs, but McCaffrey did go to Stanford and anything possible.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter)
Oct 21, 2022
CMC is the obvious winner, but here is the other fallout to consider:
📉 Jeff Wilson Jr.
Wilson immediately shifts from the lead back to a complementary piece when CMC needs a breather. Don't drop him—CMC isn't necessarily a picture of health—but his stock takes a massive hit. Tevin Coleman and Tyrion-Davis Price can be safely dropped.
📈 Chuba Hubbard, D'Onta Foreman
Technically this is a stock up situation for both Hubbard and Foreman in that they both will be getting more touches, but it's hard to be excited about two middling talents in a timeshare on one of the most inept offenses in football. Both should be rostered in case one pulls ahead, though. Here's who Matthew prefers.
It's been a rough start to the season for some of our favorite players, but there's reason to leave a candle on for some of them. Here are three players who could potentially bounce back despite slow starts:
🕯️ Panthers WR DJ Moore
There's no way to sugarcoat things for Moore. He's been a major bust relative to his Round 3 ADP. He's the WR65 in points per game and only has one game with more than 4 catches. All that said, CMC is on his way out. Could Moore get traded as well? It's certainly in play, although the team has said he's a "foundational piece" to the roster.
Even if he's not traded, Sam Darnold has been designated to return from IR. As crazy as it sounds, Darnold could be the catalyst for some positive change, and he has to throw to someone.
Say what you want about Darnold as a QB, but he at least funneled targets to Moore in his 9 games last season. The "league winner" scenario is no longer within his range of outcomes, but there's time to salvage DJ's season.
🕯️ Steelers WR Chase Claypool
Despite the solid game against the Bucs (7-96-1), Claypool has been an inconsistent producer in 2022. The emergence of George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth has really hurt his target floor. Rumors are swirling, though, that Claypool could be on the move. The Packers are reportedly "all in" on acquiring Claypool, which would be a massive boost to his outlook.
🕯️ Jets WR Elijah Moore
After a zero-target game in Week 6 and a string of tweets with big coping energy, Moore has officially asked for a trade from the Jets. The team is clearly trying to smooth things over after they gave him a personal day off from practice yesterday. Whether it's a squeaky wheel narrative in Week 7 vs. the Broncos or the team capitulating and shipping him out, there has to be better days ahead, right? RIGHT? We miss you...
Elijah, we miss you...
— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife)
Oct 20, 2022
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JMToWin is a founder/developer of One Week Season, where we focus not only on preparing you for each unique slate, but also on teaching you the strategies and theories behind winning DFS play. Our team has millions of dollars in net DFS profit, and each week we strive to build the OWS Fam into a leaderboard-crashing unit. Become a part of the OWS Fam with OWS Free!
"There is no way I would like that guy."
(He's now one of my best friends.)
"There is no way I could ever get along with him."
(Another one of my best friends.)
Over the last 20 years, I've been to more than 40 states (mostly by car) and more than 20 countries (mostly off the beaten path). Travel — of course — is an excellent teacher, and one of the most consistent, most powerful lessons I've learned is this: no matter what "the surface" might look like, you can come to genuinely love nearly anyone you spend enough time with.
"This is an ugly slate."
You may hear that quite a bit this week.
"There's hardly anything to like."
Five of the 11 games on the Main Slate this week have Over/Unders of 43.0 or below. Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts are missing from this slate. Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, and Stefon Diggs are missing as well. Only three games have an Over/Under north of 47.0, and no games are topping 50.0.
These are the perceived drawbacks.
But what if we are willing to "set aside differences," so to speak, and spend some quality time with this slate?
Here are two areas that are standing out to me — "a couple of layers beneath the surface."
😲 Browns
The Cleveland Browns are coming off a horror show appearance at home against the "perceived to be not that good" Patriots. Combine this with the Browns' 2-4 record, and it's easy to doubt them as a DFS-viable team. But the Browns would be 5-1 if their end-of-game situations had played out slightly differently against the Jets (one-point loss), Falcons (three-point loss), and Chargers (two-point loss); and as DFS players, we couldn't care less about a team's record!
We just need a team to score points and keep games close. Cleveland has scored 26 to 30 points in four of six games, they rank fourth in run offense DVOA (Football Outsiders), and they are facing a Baltimore team that ranks 24th in run defense DVOA.
The Browns' 19.5-point implied team total will keep most of our competition off them, and their concentrated offense makes it very clear which players will benefit if the Browns exceed the public's reactive expectations in this spot.
🥵️ Seahawks
After Seattle disappointed last week at home against the "perceived to be awful" defense of Arizona, they enter this week with an implied team total of only 22.25 against a Chargers defense that ranks 14th in DVOA, 16th in opponent drive success rate, 22nd in run defense DVOA, and 25th in points allowed per drive. Seattle ranks fourth in DVOA on offense while ranking 12th in drive success rate and eighth in points per drive. This team continues to get no respect from Vegas (last week, we highlighted how nonsensical it was for them to be home underdogs against Arizona), and the DFS public may finally be scared off this spot after getting burned so badly by the Seattle passing attack last week.
"This slate is ugly."
Sure, that's true — on the surface.
But spend a bit of time with this slate, and you just might find something you genuinely love.
📓 Sign up for OWS:
Code LIFE40 saves 40%(!!!) on rest-of-season access to OWS subscriptions.
🚑 Uh oh, two important Ravens missed practice. Keep tabs on this.
🧐 When will Tom Brady retire? Ok, that settles that, then.
🆓 Another interesting trade candidate. Free this man.
📈 It's Rankings Day on the Fantasy Life Podcast. Marcas & Dwain get you set for Week 7!
🖼️ TNF Art. Gorgeous.
🥪 Russell Wilson needs a new publicist. He can't keep getting away with this.
😎 These backup RBs can help you during the bye weeks. Find out why their matchups are better than they look on paper.
🚀 Don't forget about this WR. He's back on Sunday.
🏆 Who is the third-best team in the AFC? Bill Barnwell's answer may surprise you. Read the full article with ESPN+.
In between placing waiver claims and setting our lineups, we do a little sports betting around here. Today Geoff is here to give you his best bets of the week. All odds from our friends at BetMGM.
💸Bengals -5.5 (-110)
While it pains me to go against my Falcons – who enter this game 6-0 ATS on the season – their ATS dominance has become a bit of a public story. This has led to more bets on the Falcons this week, and a line that opened at -6.5 (and had a look ahead line of -10/+10) move down to -5.5 in spots.
That’s why I like jumping on the Bengals, who have been a great ATS team with Joe Burrow at QB going 18-9 ATS overall – and 10-5 ATS after a win – since the beginning of 2020.
Atlanta’s defense is also severely beaten up in the secondary, with corner Casey Hayward doubtful and AJ Terrell limited in practice this week. Not great with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on the slate. The Bengals should put an end to the Falcons' streak this week.
💸Chris Godwin over 64.5 receiving yards (-115)
Godwin smashed the over on his yardage prop last week and his total hasn’t seen much movement for Week 7. He’ll take on a Carolina secondary that allowed four catches or more to four different WRs last week. Godwin has out-targeted Mike Evans 18-12 the last two weeks and there seems a clear desire by Tom Brady to get the now healthy Godwin the ball and get the big plays in this offense humming again. Until his prop adjusts closer to 70.0, the over is the play.
💸 David Njoku over 36.5 receiving yards (-115)
Njoku enters this game averaging 77.0 yards receiving over his last four games. That number may shock people but Jacoby Brissett has been a target magnet for big TEs his entire career and Njoku has underrated athleticism as a receiver. The Ravens don’t cover the middle well and allowed Daniel Bellinger and Hayden Hurst to average 7.6 yards per target against them the last two weeks. This number looks criminally low.
💸Daniel Jones under 34.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Jaguars have a stout rushing defense and rank sixth in yards per carry against. They held Jalen Hurts to one of his worst rushing days of the season as he went for 38 yards on 16 carries (good for just 2.3 ypc) against them in Week 4. Jones is still healing from a tough ankle injury in Week 4 and has averaged under 3.0 yards per carry over the last two weeks. This is a big total worth fading in Week 7.
💸 Top 3 ATS (Against the Spread)
- Jaguars -2.5
- Broncos -1.5
- Bengals -5.5
Find out who Matthew is on this week in fantasy! Love/Hate is on NBC Sports Edge, and it's FREE!
It’s #LoveHate day! Week 7 is now posted and as always, is free. Today’s is a fun one - the annual “Blind Resumes” edition.
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR)
Oct 20, 2022
Picking kickers can be a pain, but relax, we have our resident kicking expert Linda to help you make the right choice.
🦵️ Taylor Bertolet (Linda's Rank: K6)
On this, the day of the new Taylor Swift album release, it’s only right to feature someone else also named Taylor.
The 29-year-old Los Angeles Charger Taylor Bertolet made his NFL debut in Week 5 against Cleveland. He was perfect that week, hitting all three of his extra point attempts and going 3-for-3 on field goal attempts, including a game-winner.
Dustin Hopkins is due to miss 2-4 weeks with a hamstring injury, so Bertolet has been called back up to the 53-man roster. The Chargers face off against the Seahawks in Week 7 in the only matchup projected over 50 points. Seattle is tied for second in most points allowed to opposing teams and the Chargers have attempted multiple field goals in the last three games.
Justin Herbert and company should be able to move the ball on that Seahawks' defense making this a high-scoring affair, and the Chargers are favored.
A recipe for fantasy kicker success.
🦵️ Injury Roundup
Chase McLaughlin is rostered in 10% of Yahoo! leagues. The Colts have attempted 10 field goals in their last four games, including their most recent matchup with the Titans in Week 4.
Riley Patterson is rostered in 15% of Yahoo! leagues. A little on the riskier side, he’s just as liable to give you a two-point disappointment as he is a top-12 finish this week. The jaguars are taking on the Giants, who are allowing the 2nd most field goal attempts to opposing teams. If the Jags can get any semblance of an offense going, I like Patterson’s upside this week.
You can find my Week 7 kicker rankings at FantasyLife.com.
The Walkthrough is the most comprehensive matchups column in the fantasy space. Every Friday, Rotoworld's Pat Kerrane outlines all the critical fantasy football context for each and every game. Today, he shares a QB/WR combo he's excited about for Week 7...
🚀 Jared Goff & Amon-Ra St. Brown
It's easier to trust Goff now that Amon-Ra St. Brown should be healthy enough to run a full slate of routes. St. Brown had a 41% route rate in Week 5 and was clearly still working back from his ankle injury. But after a bye week to rest up, he's practicing in full this week.
St. Brown has dominated targets this season with a 28% target share. He's done so with an extremely shallow aDOT of 5.3, but he's still been able to produce a superstar level 2.39 YPRR on elite target volume.
St. Brown's target dominance is not simply a result of his ability to get open. That definitely helps, but the Lions have also built their offense around the expectation that the second-year receiver will get open quickly. St. Brown has been targeted as Goff's first read on 25.4% of his routes this season -- the highest rate in the NFL -- and he not only provides Goff with a clear go-to option... he is an ideal weapon to help get the ball out quickly against an elite pass rush. St. Brown should get as many targets as he can handle this week.
Click here to read the full article.
— garypaintin (@garypaintin20)
Oct 20, 2022
