"Take my UCL, Josh Allen..."
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:
- Things are looking up for the Steelers
- Week 10: Rankings & Tiers
- TNF: Fantasy & Betting Picks
- A WR to stash on your bench
- Bets from the group chat: It's ugly.
- It's 11/10. Take it away, Peter Overzet...
On the surface, there's not much to like about the Pittsburgh Steelers.
They are 2-6 and last in the AFC North. They've scored the least amount of points (120) in the entire NFL through 9 weeks. They just shipped off one of their offensive playmakers at the trade deadline.
And yet, I think there is room for fantasy optimism heading out of the bye. Hear me out...
Part of the Steelers struggles can be attributed to their brutal schedule. Seriously, look at this gauntlet over the past 6 weeks:
The deck has been beyond stacked against the rookie QB Kenny Pickett, but over the next four weeks, he'll be home vs. New Orleans (3-6) and Cincy (5-4) and then on the road vs. Indy (3-5-1) and Atlanta (4-5).
There are also rumblings that the team might move away from the sluggish Najee Harris to the more explosive rookie Jaylen Warren. Warren had 50 yards on just six carries against the Eagles in Week 8, while Harris has the second-lowest rush yards over expected per attempt in the entire league.
Steelers RB touches this year:
Najee Harris 132
Jaylen Warren 41Touches to gain 10+ yards:
Najee Harris 12
Jaylen Warren 13— John Daigle (@notJDaigle)
Nov 9, 2022
Rookie WR George Pickens is ready for a big finish to the season with Chase Claypool no longer around to compete for downfield looks.
There's lots of evidence that rookies often experience a post-bye "bump" in usage, and Pickett, Warren, and Pickens certainly fit that bill as the Steelers usher in a youth-fueled retool down the stretch.
And this is before we even mention veteran Diontae Johnson and second-year TE Pat Freiermuth, both of whom should also benefit from a softer schedule and condensed target tree.
The Steelers might not be NFL relevant, but the smart money says they'll be fantasy relevant down the stretch.
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💰 Matt LaMarca is betting: Carolina Panthers +2.5
We’ve officially reached Week 10 of the regular season, which means we have a pretty good idea of which teams are good and which are bad. Both of Thursday’s teams fall into the latter category. The Falcons and Panthers both have losing records, and neither team is in the top half of the league in weighted Football Outsiders DVOA.
While that doesn’t set up the most entertaining matchup on paper, it leads to some potential betting value. Starting in Week 10, grabbing the points in divisional matchups between two sub-.500 teams has been extremely profitable. In fact, underdogs in those matchups have gone 33-15-3 against the spread since the start of 2018-19. The Panthers are coming off an embarrassing performance last week vs. the Bengals, but I like them to bounce back on Thursday Night Football.
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It is time to make those tough lineup decisions, and Dwain has you covered with in-depth player tiers, rankings, and analysis. Here are a few of his favorites for Week 10:
Running Back
🥈 Tier 2 – Travis Etienne Jr.
Etienne delivered a juicy 20.9 fantasy points per game over the last four weeks, and his utilization and efficiency data suggest the production will continue.
Since Week 7, the 2021 first-round pick posted an 80% snap share. He is one of only a handful of backs to receive that sort of treatment – he dominates rushing attempts and passing downs.
He sports the No. 5 PFF rush grade (90.6) and ranks highly in multiple efficiency metrics.
- Missed tackles forced per attempt: 32% (5th)
- Average yards after contact: 3.21 (16th)
- 10-plus yard attempts: 14% (12th)
Etienne is a SMASH play as a mid-range RB1.
Wide Receiver
🥈 Tier 2 – Amari Cooper
Cooper is on pace to set a career-high target share (28%) and has double-digit looks in four out of eight games.
The eighth-year WR ranks 11th in YPRR (2.14) and is on pace for 1,175 yards and 10 receiving TDs. Cooper is dominating man coverage in 2022 with a mind-blowing 35% TPRR (5th) – a trend that goes back three seasons.
The Dolphins use the second-most man coverage (41%), and the last time Cooper faced Xavien Howard (2019), he posted six catches for 88 yards and two touchdowns.
Cooper is in a SMASH spot and is a top-12 WR.
Tight end
📈 Tier 4 – Greg Dulcich
Dulcich’s career is off to a hot start with three top-12 finishes, and his utilization profile backs it up. The rookie has eclipsed the 80% route threshold and has two 20%-plus target shares under his belt.
Dulcich has the 11th-highest PFF receiving grade (74.4) and sixth-best YPRR (1.88) out of tight ends with 75 routes.
The Titans allow the second-most fantasy points to pass catchers per game (66.2) in non-overtime play, creating room for upside coming off the bye.
The third-round NFL draft pick is a mid-range TE1.
Check out all of the Fantasy Life Rankings!
💰 You NEED to buy low on this WR. Listen to Dwain before it's too late.
🤫 Stash this rookie WR if you have the space. He could be a difference-maker down the stretch.
🚑 Uh oh, another QB is banged up. He's now in the concussion protocol.
🦷 Who got flossed in Week 9??? You don't want to end up on this list.
🏆 Most receiving yards this season. The Dolphins have two in the Top 5.
🔝 This Panthers WR is the TOP captain to play in DFS tonight. Find out why from a pro.
⚖️ An update on Alvin Kamara's court case. You are in the clear for 2022 if you drafted him.
🙏🏻 No RB shut down yet. Good news for Jonathan Taylor managers.
😢 It's time for fantasy managers to move on. Marcas & Dwain spoke about it earlier this week,& now it's time to sit him.
Nothing screams Thursday Night Football quite like the Carolina Panthers hosting the Atlanta Falcons as 2.5-point home underdogs with a measly 42.5 point over/under.
Sam Darnold was activated off I.R., but P.J. Walker will still get the start, thanks to the short week. RB Chuba Hubbard (ankle) is also expected to return tonight and eat into D'Onta Foreman's projection.
As for the Falcons, Marcus Mariota says he's going to give Kyle Pitts more targets, but we'll believe it when we see it.
Here's everything we like tonight from a fantasy, DFS, and betting perspective:
Our research for these plays comes from, Run the Sims, Props.cash (Use promo code LIFE to save 20% on your subscription), PFF, OWS, and the Fantasy Life Rankings, Start/Sit tool, and Player Props tool.
Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what Jordan came up with for this week...All odds via BetMGM
🔥 DJ Moore Over 58.5 Receiving Yards -115
It's been a rough season for DJ Moore and his fantasy managers. During draft season, Moore was widely regarded as a high-upside WR, straddling that line between being a WR2, and a WR3. Clearly, after 9 weeks of the NFL season, we can confidently say that the QB change from Sam Darnold to Baker Mayfield didn't offer the upside that was once thought.
But for at least one more week, PJ Walker will give this offense a puncher's chance, thanks to his aggressiveness.
Prior to last week's boat race against the Bengals, Moore had two very strong games in a row, with 10 and 11 targets turning into 7 receptions for 69 yards and a score in Week 7 and 6 receptions for 152 yards and a score in Week 8. Moore also notched a massive 42% targets per route run, with a 48% target share in Week 7.
These are massive market share numbers for a WR. For perspective, Tyreek Hill's year to date targets per route run rate is 34%, with a target share of 33%
This week, Moore and the Panthers take on the Falcons' defense, who have surrendered the most fantasy points to opposing WRs on the season. To make matters worse, their top coverage CB, AJ Terrell, has been ruled out once again with a hamstring injury.
I know it looks ugly, but DJ Moore's receiving line should be higher than 58.5 yards; in fact, the Fantasy Life Player Prop Tool has Moore projected for 76.53 receiving yards, giving this bet a 10% edge on BetMGM's line.
🔥 Additional Bets:
- Kyle Pitts Over 37.5 Receiving yards -115
- Bears -3 @ Lions
- Cowboys -5 @ Packers
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— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife)
Nov 10, 2022
