Can The Chiefs Win In Burrowhead?

Hey, Patrick Mahomes... who's your daddy???

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

• Keys to the Game.
• Rankings Update. 3 Sneaky Upgrades.
• Dear Pete. Dopamine fiend.
• Bets from the Group Chat. Pound Pacheco.
• It's 1/28. Take it away, Dwain McFarland...

We have four high-quality teams facing off in the Championship Round, and both games have a spread of under three points. In contests like these, the deciding factor can often come down to one key matchup or strategy.

With that in mind, let's dive into some data and identify one key to the game for each team...

🔒 Chiefs: Lock down Ja'Marr Chase

Since Week 13, Chase has become the engine of the Bengals' offense, averaging 11.3 targets per game. During that span, he has a TD reception in five of seven outings.

This won't be an easy task to accomplish. I have Chase projected for seven catches for 82 yards and 0.83 TDs as the No. 1 WR on the slate. He caught seven balls for 97 yards in the Week 13 matchup against Kansas City.

However, there is a potential chink in the armor of the superstar: Cover 2.

Per PFF data, Chase has faced Cover 2 on 234 snaps in two seasons, and his target rate falls to 15%, his yards per route plummet to 1.43, and he only has one TD. Contrastly, Joe Mixon's target rate explodes to 34%.

The Chiefs use Cover 2 on 20% of plays — top four in the NFL. Not only do they use it more than other teams, but they are also good at it. Kansas City's best coverage is Cover 2, with an 85.1 PFF grade.

With Patrick Mahomes at less than 100%, Kansas City should avoid a track meet environment. Invite the Bengals to run the ball and throw underneath to their TEs and RBs with as many two-high looks as possible.

🏃‍♂️ Bengals: Force Patrick Mahomes out of the pocket

The Chiefs removed Mahomes from the injury report on Friday after multiple full practices and indicated he is a full go. If I were on the Bengals coaching staff, my No. 1 priority would be forcing Mahomes to leave the pocket early.

Historically speaking, that is the opposite of how you want to handle the stud signal caller.

No QB has more passing yards over the last two seasons off of the scramble drill than Mahomes. Per PFF, His 1,063 yards are 387 ahead of second-place Josh Allen. Mahomes throws a TD pass on a blistering 12.9% of his attempts when in the scramble drill.

While it will be scary, the Bengals must bait Mahomes into doing what is innately wired into his DNA for two reasons:

1. The sooner the Bengals know what version of Mahomes they are dealing with, the sooner they can adapt their defensive game plan.
2. Forcing Mahomes to scramble could reaggravate his ankle injury.

Of course, Mahomes could still do Mahomes things despite the ankle. We have been here before...

In 2019 Week 1 Patrick Mahomes had a high ankle sprain vs. the Jaguars.

Week 2: 443 4 TDs sacked twice
Week 3: 374 3 TDs sacked once
Week 4: 321 1 TD sacked four times

(This was also without Tyreek Hill)
Unpopular Mahomes at home...

This is going to be a fun slate. twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

— Jordan Vanek (@JordanVanekDFS)
Jan 27, 2023

🚫 Eagles: Just say no to the 49ers' easy scheme throws

Brock Purdy has thrived against zone coverage with a sizzling 8.5 YPA and a sparkling 1.5% turnover-worthy play rate. You can't ask for much more — an explosive passing attack with a low risk of turnover.

However, against man coverage, Purdy morphs into a seventh-round rookie QB with a 7.1 YPA and an 8.9% turnover-worthy play rate. His PFF passing grade drops from 77.4 to 59.0.

The Eagles are primarily a zone defense and have been very successful doing so, allowing the lowest passing YPA (5.4) in the NFL. While they don't need to change their identity, mixing in more man and press coverage could serve them well.

The 49ers' offense is masterful at manufacturing easy completions for big yards via the short passing game. San Fransico averages eight yards per attempt on passes that travel under 10 yards versus the NFL average of six. The No. 1 component to the quick game is Deebo Samuel, who demands an astounding 29% target share against Cover 3, the Eagles' favorite coverage.

If the Eagles take away the easy throws early, it will disrupt Purdy's rhythm and increase their odds of creating game-changing turnovers.

🎯 49ers: Get Deebo Samuel the damn ball!!!

While the Eagles should fear Samuel, there is a chance they don't make the adjustments recommended in the section above. Philadelphia's pass defense has been really good, after all, and that could create an if-it-ain't-broke-don't-fix-it mentality.

If I am the 49ers' brain trust, this is exactly what I am hoping for so we can get our rookie QB into a groove early with easy throws while also unleashing our zone-destroyer. Over the past two seasons, no other WR has a higher YPRR (2.85) against zone coverage than Samuel. He averages 9.8 yards after the catch, 3.7 more than Jaylen Waddle at No. 2.

If Samuel is cooking early, it will also be an indicator that the Eagles are playing defense the way the 49ers planned. That means all of their favorite counterpunches off of Samuel will be in play. Trying to defend a Kyle Shanahan offense when all the pieces are in play is a bad place to be — even if you are a good defense like the Eagles.

🏈 Even losing can seem like a win

When you lose your fantasy league, the punishment is typically never good:

• Go skiing in a dress
• Eat 100 tacos in a week
• Get a tattoo, chosen by your league *gulp*

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Going with your gut can only get you so far. Use our industry-leading rankings to gain an edge over your league mates. Need help? Don't worry, Dwain has you covered.

📈 Risers

📈 RB – Samaje Perine

Perine and Joe Mixon are splitting snaps 45/55 over the last three games. Mixon gets the majority of rushing work (62%), but Perine is playing most of the passing downs.

Perine delivered 12 touches last weekend with seven rushing attempts and five receptions on his way to 11.4 fantasy points.

Perine has a 20% TPRR against Kansas City’s most-used coverages and their favorite look is Cover 2, which is an oddity in today’s game.

Only four teams use it on 20% or more of plays, and the Chiefs are one of them. Ja’Marr Chase has dominated most coverages, but teams have utilized Cover 2 to hold him to a 14% TPRR.

If the Chiefs decide to try and take away Chase and force other options to beat them – and why wouldn’t you? – the running backs could get heavily involved in the passing game. If you fade Chase this weekend, consider Mixon, Perine and Hayden Hurst as interesting pivots that might not carry much combinatorial rostership.

Perine could surprise with a similar workload to last weekend – the utilization is there. If he gets into the end zone, he has a sneaky path to 20-point upside if Chase fails.

📈 TE – Dallas Goedert

Goedert has target shares of 19%, 23% and 22% over the last three games, and while the competition for targets is fierce in Philadelphia, the Eagles funnel most of their offense through A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Goedert.

This weekend, the fifth-year TE faces a 49ers secondary that plays the most zone coverage in the NFL, which will force the Eagles to spread the ball around a bit more. San Francisco’s favorite zone coverage is Cover 3, which they utilize on 39% of plays (45% over the last six games). On a per-route basis, Goedert is Philadelphia’s No. 1 option against Cover 3 with a 23% TPRR.

The 49ers haven’t faced many high-quality TE options like Goedert this season, but when they have, they have struggled. Travis Kelce went for 98 yards, and Darren Waller notched 73.

Goedert is always a solid TE1 option, but he carries more upside than usual. He will carry a big rostership number on DraftKings, but getting him into the flex spot at $4,100 is a way to get creative.

📈 TE – Hayden Hurst

Hurst (17%) ranks ahead of Tyler Boyd (13%) in TPRR, and over the last three games, he has out-targeted the slot WR 19% to 11%. The veteran TE ranks ahead of Boyd in TPRR in three of the Chiefs’ top-four preferred coverages.

Like Perine, Hurst also makes a lot of sense if the Chiefs try to take Ja’Marr Chase away. In that scenario, we could have a low-scoring grind-it-out game where the TEs and RBs are heavily involved in the underneath passing game – especially considering the Bengals' offensive line challenges.

Hurst profiles as a low-end TE1, but he could come through with 50 yards and a TD. At $3,000 on DraftKings, Hurst will likely be highly rostered but is an interesting option in the flex position – specifically paired with Mixon or Perine when fading Chase.

👀 Monitoring

👀 RB – Elijah Mitchell

Mitchell didn’t practice all week and is in danger of missing Sunday’s game against the Eagles. In games with Mitchell, Christian McCaffrey averages 34% of the rushing attempts. In games without Mitchell, CMC averages 58%.

Christian McCaffery with Elijah Mitchell:

-11.2 rush attempts per game
-51.3 rushing yards per game

Without Mitchell (excluding first week after he got traded):

-18.2 rush attempts per game
-92.3 rushing yards per game

Elijah didn’t practice all week 👀

— Dalton Kates (@Dalton_Kates)
Jan 27, 2023

McCaffrey is also battling a calf injury but was removed from the injury report on Friday.

If Mitchell can’t go, CMC has a legit 30-point upside.

🕶 Which QBs have the IT factor? Tough to disagree.

🤑 Profit from this new trend in the KC backfield. We have picks waiting for you. 

👣 The Rams get a new OC. Following in his big brother's footsteps.

🏈 Who didn't have these bed sheets as a kid? Not sure my wife would approve.

❓ Can Brock keep this up? Maybe, but this line is TOO high. 

🏆 The Cowboys retain a key coach. There is unfinished business.

🗻 How's the air up there, Travis? He is closing in on No. 2 all-time.

 🤔 He was a great LB for them. Will he return as head coach?

Feeling lost in life? Need help with your fantasy football team? Pete is here to help. Send your questions about fantasy, or life to dearpete@fantasylife.com.

Dear Pete, do you ever have so much action going across fantasy, DFS, props, and sports betting that you don’t even know who to root for? — Parlayed & Confused

DEAR PARLAYED & CONFUSED: Literally all the time.

My parents were in town visiting this past week, and we were watching the Divisional Round games on Saturday. After that Christian Kirk TD in the Chiefs game, my mom turned to me and asked a very reasonable question:

“Was that good for your fantasy?”

I should have just said “yes” or “no,” but the truth was…I had no clue.

I contemplated telling the truth:

“Well, you see, I do have an overweight position on Kirk in my Gauntlet drafts on Underdog, which should help my advancement rate, but I full faded him on the 2-game DraftKings slate, so that’s going to sting, although we did have him on some nice teams in the FFPC Playoff Challenge contest so that will keep us live for first depending on what happens in the other three games, but I actually jammed Marvin Jones Jr. as a leverage play in the Showdown contests because he was going completely overlooked by the field. If Kirk hits 140 yards total, though, I’ll rip through all of my yardage ladder prop bets for a nice hit.”

I think my actual response ended up being something along the lines of, “Well, ya, kinda…..anyways, want to hold the baby?”

If it sounds like I have a sickness, I’m not going to argue with you.

Some people like having a “clean sweat”—a single bet with clear rooting interests. I don’t blame those people. I’m sure they are lovely and enjoy things like brunch and pickleball. 

But I’m not one of those people. I need the constant dopamine hit on every single play. Especially as the season winds down and we stare down the barrel of no more football games for months. This is the last hurrah of peak football degeneracy until we start betting whether Bijan Robinson will run a sub 4.5 40-yard dash at the combine, and you better believe that I’m going to take full advantage of it:

the key to enjoying the super bowl is to bet so many different things that you are paralyzed with confusion after every play as to whether it was good for you or not

— playoff pete (@peteroverzet)
Feb 2, 2020

I should also admit that I’ve always liked dabbling in every form of action surrounding fantasy football and the NFL, but after my friend Pat Kerrane won $2,000,000 in Underdog's big best ball contest, the sense of urgency has kicked into overdrive.

I, too, must win a cool two mil playing fantasy sports. And how am I supposed to do that without playing every godforsaken contest under the sun??

Please gamble responsibly. This is not financial advice. Do as I say, not as I do.

Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what LaMarca came up with for Championship Weekend...

💰 Isiah Pacheco Over 11.5 Rushing Attempts (-120)

Can I interest you in a rushing prop for a team with a banged-up quarterback? We have no idea just how much Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury will impact him on Sunday, but it’s fair to assume it’s a decent bit. A high-ankle sprain is typically a 6-8 week injury, yet Mahomes will be suiting up just eight days later.

With that in mind, the team could lean on Pacheco a bit more than usual. He took over as the team’s starting running back in Week 7, and he took over as the primary rushing threat in Week 9. Since then, he’s had at least 12 carries in eight of his past 10 games, including last week’s matchup vs. the Jaguars.

The Bengals and Chiefs have already met once this season, and Cincinnati basically dared the Chiefs to beat them with their rushing attack. Mahomes attempted just 27 passes in that matchup – his second-lowest mark of the year – and the Chiefs racked up 23 total rushing attempts. Pacheco had 14 of them, and we could be looking at a similar game script in the Conference Championship.

💵 Brock Purdy Under 220.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Purdy has basically been a Disney sports movie come to life.

He was the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, and he entered the year as a complete afterthought. He was third on the 49ers’ depth chart, but injuries to Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo have thrust him into the spotlight. Purdy has seemed completely unfazed as the team’s starting QB, winning all seven of his starts with solid numbers. He’s now one win away from becoming the first rookie quarterback to make it to the Super Bowl.

However, the Purdy bandwagon hit a brief speed bump last week. He looked mortal vs. the Cowboys, completing just 19 of 29 passes for 214 yards and zero touchdowns.

While the Cowboys were no joke, the Eagles will be Purdy’s toughest test to date. They rank first in the league in adjusted sack rate, and they’re also first in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA. The Eagles' defense was absolutely dominant last week vs. the Giants, limiting New York to just 109 net passing yards.

The Eagles have also had some vulnerability against the run, so expect them to lean on Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell in this spot. I have no problem rolling the dice on the under with Purdy.

You know the name. But do you know the story behind fantasy football's most mysterious pseudonym?

@JenPolvogt explores the curious case of @cooterdoodle & finding your people in her latest:

— In-Between Media (@IBT_Media)
Jan 27, 2023