🤔 Can the Oilers Break a Trend?

In Canada, you don’t play hockey, hockey plays you.

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM.

Today is Wednesday, May the 8th. It’s not Star Wars day, but it is significant for the Edmonton Oilers as it marks both the start of their second-round series against the Canucks and the seventh day since their Game 5 win over Los Angeles, the last time they took the ice.

I bring this up for a couple of reasons, mainly because teams coming off long layoffs have started poorly thus far in Round 2. Two nights ago, the Panthers (who also had a seven-day layoff) were skated out of Amerant Bank Arena by the Bruins, who took Game 1 by four goals. Last night, the Avalanche, who were also off for a week, got down 3-0 to the Stars early but did manage to find their sea legs in time to come back and steal Game 1 in OT.

I don’t say this as a reason to fade the Oilers tonight (I’m not), but just to keep in mind that Round 2 of the NHL playoffs can be higher variance, thanks in part to the huge rest disparities between teams. With that in mind, let’s get to some plays for the day and talk about how I’m about to go violently against this trend I just discussed with my first bet.

💧 Oilers Moneyline (-130; DraftKings)

All that talk about teams being rusty after longer layoffs, and yes, I am still taking the Oilers in Game 1. Edmonton does have to deal with being out of competition for longer than usual, but the rest discrepancy between these two teams isn’t as big as it was between Boston and Florida or Dallas and Colorado.

Vancouver’s been off for five days themselves, and the high from beating the Predators has likely worn off. Unfortunately, the injury to starter Thatcher Demko (Lower Body), who remains out to start this series but could return as early as Game 5, hasn't worn off. Third-stringer Arturs Silovs did well against the Predators, but Edmonton is an entirely different beast. While Nashville managed just a 9.1% success rate on the power-play and generated the second-fewest high-danger scoring chances in Round 1, Edmonton’s power-play ranks first among all playoff teams (45%), and they out-chanced divisional rival L.A. by a decent margin.

Much has been made about the Canucks going 4-0 against Edmonton in the regular season, but if anything, this has likely helped keep Edmonton focused during the break. As much as I like underdogs, especially when they are home, I like the idea of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl against a goalie who didn’t dress for Game 1 of the last series more. And I don’t mind paying a shorter price to get that matchup in Game 1.

🏒 Brock Boeser Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+100; DraftKings)

The Oilers had trouble in the first round limiting another big right winger in Adrian Kempe, and Boeser has been a thorn in their side in the past as well. He scored six goals against them in the regular season, highlighted by a four-goal, eight-shot effort in a game back in October.

The Oilers aren’t the same team they were back in October, but Boeser is still clearly the Canucks best offensive threat. He landed a hat trick against Nashville in Round 1 and averaged 3.0 shots per game over the series. While his anytime goal prop is available at a decent price (+195; FanDuel), there is also some divergence on his SOG prop, with DraftKings having his over set at +100.

Edmonton allowed 29.0 shots against in Round 1 (third highest among all playoff teams remaining), so there is likely to be a little more open ice for Boeser in this series, making these odds worth taking advantage of.

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🏌️ The Wells Fargo Championship starts Thursday. No Scheffler makes a trio of top players more enticing.

🔭 Looking ahead, the PGA Championships odds are up. Will Koepka defend his title?

🏀 How will New York fare without Mitchell Robinson? Best Bets for Pacers vs. Knicks game 2.

📈 After two road wins, the Timberwolves have moved to second favorite. Is a Boston / Minnesota final inevitable?

👀 A disgusting parlay (for the ages!). The Thunder won Game 1, and this bettor came one step closer to bliss.

🏈 Joe Burrow is back throwing footballs. And the discount on his MVP odds may already be gone.

🏹 Some things stay the same. Early line movement says the Chiefs may have won the offseason.

⛰️ Playoff hockey at its finest. Tuesday featured two OT games and a big comeback from Colorado. 

⭐ A month and a half in, and (surprise) the Dodgers are the favorites. They would be a popular champion for bettors.

We get a full Wednesday of baseball, and here to break down his favorite betting angles for the slate is Matt LaMarca…

Selfishly, I love Wednesdays for baseball. We get a nice mix of afternoon and evening contests, and any time sports are on TV in the afternoon is an afternoon appreciated by stay-at-home writers. Watching baseball is so much better than choosing between Netflix, Law and Order re-runs, and Maury Povich.

All 30 teams are scheduled to be in action, with 16 total games to choose from. Eight of those contests will start at 3:37 p.m. ET or earlier, while the other eight will take place in the evening.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite options for Wednesday’s slate.

🪐 Astros ML at Yankees (+130; Caesars)

The season could not have started any worse for the Astros. They’re currently sitting at just 12-23, good for last place in the AL West. That’s right, the team that has made it to the ALCS in seven straight seasons is currently behind the A’s and Angels in the standings.

Things don’t figure to get much easier for them on Wednesday. They’re taking on the Yankees – who own the second-best record in the American League – and will be sending Spencer Arrighetti to the bump. He owns an 8.27 ERA and an 0-3 record through four starts.

That said, Arrighetti is coming off his best performance vs. the Guardians, and his underlying metrics are strong. His 3.73 xERA is drastically lower than his actual mark, and he ranks in the 95th percentile for barrel rate and 80th percentile for average exit velocity. Arrighetti was also one of the Astros’ best pitching prospects, so it’s easy to project him for improvement moving forward.

Conversely, Carlos Rodon has been on the opposite side of the luck equation. He’s outperformed his 4.46 xERA by nearly a full run, and his Statcast metrics range from average to bad. He’s a prime regression candidate, and the Astros have historically been at their best against southpaws. This feels like an excellent opportunity to buy low on Arrighetti and the Astros and sell high on Rodon.