🆕 Can These 5 Offenses Survive?

Does the NFL have a "mercy" rule? Asking for a friend (I'm friends with the Rams)...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

• 5 backup QBs set to start
• Morning Download: Pete gets you caught up
• Which Chiefs RB to play
• Eliot's favorite stack: Seahawks/Raiders
• SNF: Our SNF Picks & Plays
• Player Matchups: Jeff Wilson Jr. & Allen Lazard
• It’s 11/27. Take it away, Peter Overzet...

Week 12 is all about the backup QBs. It's not the theme we deserve, but it's the theme we're going to get...

🆕 Trevor Siemian (Justin Fields)

There's still a very small chance Fields plays since the team is going to give him an opportunity to warm up prior to the game, but all signs point to Siemian starting vs. the Jets today. It's a downgrade across the board for the offense in a tough matchup, although David Montgomery (RB21) should be fine.

No Justin Fields is probably best for the #Bears this week. Give him time to rest and don’t risk further injury to the shoulder.

Absolutely no reason to rush his recovery when you’re at 3-8. Trevor Siemian should provide for some riveting tankball action.

— Jacob Infante (@jacobinfante24)
Nov 27, 2022

🆕 Mike White (Zach Wilson)

With Wilson benched, we didn't get our wish for Joe Flacco. We're stuck with White instead, but it's still probably a neutral move at worse for the likes of Garrett Wilson, Michael Carter, and Corey Davis. Wilson, by the way, is a great value on DraftKings today ($4300), and the masses are excited about Carter in the passing game:

Mike White's arrival could unleash Michael Carter in the passing game.

Last year, Carter caught 20 passes for 196 yards in just 12 quarters with Mike White. Essentially catching 6.7 passes for 65.3 yards per game.

— Michael Nania (@Michael_Nania)
Nov 23, 2022

🆕 Bryce Perkins (Matthew Stafford)

There are now doubts surrounding whether Stafford will play another game this season, meaning Perkins could be the guy going forward. The Rams have a brutal matchup today on the road at Arrowhead as 15.5-point underdogs. Making matters worse, Allen Robinson (ankle) is also not likely to play. Tyler Higbee is really the only guy worth starting in this offense, and even that feels thin in this spot.

🆕 Kyle Allen (Davis Mills)

The Texans are shaking things up today and will roll with the journeyman Allen vs. the Dolphins. As Pat Kerrane noted in The Walkthrough, Allen is likely an upgrade over Mills (think Taylor Heinicke level), and he gets an okay matchup (the Dolphins' secondary ranks 29th in PFF's coverage grades). I'm fine firing up Dameon Pierce, Brandin Cooks, and Nico Collins today while hoping for a shootout and/or garbage time points.

🆕 Sam Darnold (Baker Mayfield)

The Panthers have seen enough of Mayfield and will turn back to Darnold this week. It's honestly not the worst spot for Carolina, who get to host the husk of this disappointing Denver team today. I don't mind starting DJ Moore and D'Onta Foreman, but I wouldn't touch anyone else.

Sam Darnold getting a starting job and Zach Wilson getting benched just days apart is very funny to me

— Pete Blackburn (@PeteBlackburn)
Nov 23, 2022

Read on for more of the biggest fantasy news stories from last night, including big updates on Ja'Marr Chase and Leonard Fournette, as well as our favorite DFS plays and sports bets for today's action.

• GAME HUB - Everything you need to know about each game all in one place.
• INACTIVES - updated at 11:30am ET for 1pm games
• RANKINGS - Full Week 12 rankings for multiple scoring settings from Dwain & Waz
• FANTASY LIFE TWITTER - If news breaks, we'll have it.
• START/SIT TOOL - Debating who to start? Simply type in both players to this tool and we'll tell you the best option:
• PLAYER PROPS TOOL - Our freshly updated props tool is here to give you the best bets for each game.

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💰 Matt LaMarca is betting: Commanders -4.0

Are the Commanders… good? Let’s not get crazy, but they have been playing some good football of late. They’ve won five of their past six games, with the lone exception coming against the Vikings. They actually led by 10 points in the fourth quarter of that contest, so they could very easily be riding a six-game winning streak.

Most of those wins have come against inferior opponents, but they’re not going to see a huge step up in competition this Sunday. They’re taking on the Falcons, which is a perfect matchup for the Commanders’ defense. They have been lethal against the run this season, ranking second in Football Outsiders rush defense DVOA, and the Falcons rank 31st in pass rate over expectation. Atlanta loves to run the football, and they don’t figure to have much success in this spot.

If the Commanders can slow down the Falcons’ offense, they should have no problems scoring enough to cover the spread. The Falcons rank 28th in defensive DVOA, and they struggle against the run and the pass.

Not in one of these four states?

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📁 Ja'Marr Chase won't play

Despite getting in a good week of practices, Chase will miss today's game vs. the Titans as he continues to recover from a hairline hip fracture and torn labrum. This means another week of firing up Tee Higgins (WR8), Tyler Boyd (WR30), and Hayden Hurst (TE12) where you got 'em. And more importantly, it means I don't have to play pickleball.

📁 Leondard Fournette ruled out

The Bucs officially ruled out Fournette yesterday and also activated RB Gio Bernard from IR. Dwain already outlined the setup for rookie RB Rachaad White. There are pros (volume, matchup) and cons (poor efficiency), but you'd need multiple really good options to consider sitting him. There's also a chance the sluggish Bucs, who are still 3-point road favorites, look improved coming out of the bye. 

📁 Marquise Brown will be active

Rondale Moore was ruled out, but the Cardinals will be getting back Hollywood Brown after his five-game stint on IR with a fractured foot. I'd try to avoid starting him if possible, though. Coach Kliff Kingsbury said he would "likely be on a play limit" vs. the Chargers.

Tomorrow marks the first game the Cardinals will have Deandre Hopkins and Hollywood Brown on the field together.

— Field Yates (@FieldYates)
Nov 26, 2022

Greg Dortch (thumb) is also not expected to play for the Cardinals, so expect to see more of the rookie TE Trey McBride working in over the middle. He's a decent TE flier today.

📁 Misc. files

Ravens TE Isaiah Likely will be inactive, as will Steelers RB Jaylen Warren.

All of the other big questionable names heading into today (Josh Jacobs, Deebo Samuel, and Gus Edwards) are expected to play.

☞ That's an expensive finger point. Where do they come up with that fine amount, btw?

🔒 Which KC RB should you play today? This chart should help you decide.

🚀 This WR is STILL too cheap in DFS. Find out why he could be a slate breaker. 

🏆 The Chiefs are having an epic season. The advanced analytics put things in perspective.

🙏 Shout out to the Jaguars. We love the Jaguars.

🦓 How bad was the reffing the other night? Here's a compilation of controversial calls.

❓ Is it really Rachaad White SZN? There might be some downside to consider here. 

🦅 A blast from the past. An old QB manual from the 2010 Eagles.

When playing DFS, we want to correlate our lineups because it means we have to get fewer things right. Tournaments have such top-heavy payout structures that when you are right, you want to be right in a big way. That’s where stacking teams and games come into play. Today, Eliot shares his favorite game to stack...

🚀Geno Smith > Tyler Lockett & DK Metcalf (Bring Back: Davante Adams)

In our newly launched game hub, we have one elite matchup on the week: the Seahawks offense vs. the Raiders defense.

When looking at matchups, we want to find extremes, and the Raiders allow the highest completion percentage against, while Geno Smith is completing passes at the highest rate in football.

They tried to write Geno’s career off, but he has been able to write his own incredible story this year. He is PFF’s 5th highest-graded passer and ranks third in big-time throws. When the Seahawks have kept Geno clean in the pocket, he has been arguably the best QB in football, completing 76.9% of his passes for 8.1 yards per attempt and a 5% touchdown rate. The Seahawks should be able to keep Geno upright this week, as the Raiders rank 31st in pressure rate.

Geno Smith is our second-highest projected scoring QB with a QB8 price tag and is in the perfect situation to double-stack with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf.

The Raiders have struggled to cover slot receivers all year long, with 5 of the top 8 receiving yardage totals against them going to slot receivers. They have allowed 83.9 yards to the slot position at 19.5 FFPG, the most in football. Lockett has a slate-breaking upside in this one, but he isn't the only Seahawk receiver with that level of upside.

Throughout his career, Metcalf has done the most damage against man coverage. So far this season, he sees a 16% target share increase against man coverage. The Raiders run man at the 12th-highest rate in the league. They are also a bottom-10 team covering the deep ball, which could lead to a massive day for Metcalf. On the year, Metcalf is averaging 31.3 yards per reception on deep passes and leads the team with 37.3% of the team's air yards. 

Running this back with Davante Adams is a no-brainer as he is my favorite overall play on the slate. Not only is he our highest projected receiver, but he has seen 44 targets in the last three games. With no Darren Waller this year, he is averaging an absurd 105 yards per game, and that includes his 3-yard flu game.

If Adams’ volume and talent weren’t enough, the matchup is also sneaky good. The Seahawks allow the highest completion percentage (77.3%) against play action, where Derek Carr has a 12.3% completion and 2.5 yards per attempt bump. Get Adams in your lineups at all costs.

It's island game time, and we have you covered from a fantasy, DFS, and betting perspective. We also have previews and picks for every game in our Game Hub! Packers @ Eagles, take it away, Geoff.

📺 Packers at Eagles (-6.5) – 46.5 total

The Packers and Eagles are two teams operating on opposite ends of the spectrum in 2022. Green Bay has completely underwhelmed to this point and are on the verge of being entirely out of the playoff race with a 4-7 record. The Eagles are the rare bird (get it?) that has outperformed preseason hype, compiling a 9-1 record to date.

Despite the big disparity in wins between these two teams, the actual performances of their offensive and defensive units on the field haven’t been outlandishly different. Green Bay still ranks fifth in offensive rush DVOA and has been solid at defending against the pass. Philadelphia is slightly better in almost all facets but has also shown signs of potentially regressing in certain areas. That’s occurred most significantly thus far on defense, where they’ve drifted to seventh-worst in rush DVOA and most recently allowed the Colts to gain 4.6 yards per carry against them last week. 

The ground is where Green Bay needs to attack, and it’s fine to dream that this is where we’ll see AJ Dillon finally break out for a true upside game. The Packers rush game was shut down by the stiff run defense of Tennessee in their last game, but Dillon gained 5.0 YPC and encouragingly saw 13 carries in a shootout against Dallas during the prior week. Expect the Packers to give Dillon and Aaron Jones all that they can handle this week and for them to revert back to the formula that won them the game against the last NFC North team they faced. 

This week does set up as a natural letdown spot for Christian Watson, but don’t be shocked if he bucks the trend of WRs getting shut down by Philadelphia's secondary. Watson has moved into a nearly-every-down role and is averaging an elite 2.88 fantasy points per target this season (first in the NFL). The Eagles have slid a bit in the passing defense as well, allowing Terry McLaurin and Michael Pittman to both post games with 75+ yards against them the last two weeks. 

The Eagles offense remains somewhat of a by-committee approach. No Eagles receiver has received more than 9 targets in the last three weeks, even with Dallas Goedert on IR. Both DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown remain capable of big fantasy games, even with reduced volume, but don’t expect them to push their ceiling in usage in this game. Green Bay ranks fourth-last against the run in defensive DVOA, so do look for both Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders to pile up the rush attempts. Sanders has had a solid bounce-back season, going for more yards (757) in 10 starts this season than he did in 12 last year (754), and is still averaging a healthy 4.9 yards per carry.  I do expect Green Bay to give the Eagles all they can handle given the somewhat similar makeups of these teams (and the fact Aaron Rodgers now has a legit WR1 to work with). The Packers are 7-2 against the spread as road underdogs since 2020 under Matt LaFleur and are a legit threat to hand Philadelphia their second loss in three games. 

💰 Not sure if you missed it, but we just launched our new Game Hub!

We have preveiws like this for every game, along with matchup stats, betting picks and more!

Every Sunday we'll highlight two interesting matchups you should be aware of before setting your lineup. Take it away, Kevin...

🔥 Jeff Wilson Jr. vs. HOU

I hope you all had a safe and happy Thanksgiving with family, friends, and loved ones! In keeping with the Thanksgiving theme, there’s nothing that we love more than leftovers. For me, that first batch of leftovers — where we essentially get a second Thanksgiving meal with turkey, stuffing, and all of that delicious goodness — might just be as good as the initial dinner. 

For a particular Dolphins RB this week, he will FEAST.

The Texans' rush defense is served up piping hot and on a silver platter — the worst in the league against opposing fantasy RBs this season. Since Jeff Wilson was traded from the 49ers, he has immediately seized the backfield from Raheem Mostert, who is listed as doubtful for this week’s matchup. Wilson had a slight one-snap edge on Mostert in his Dolphins’ debut in Week 9, but in Week 10, the gap in snaps and routes widened significantly in favor of Wilson. In both weeks, Wilson has been a top-10 fantasy RB. Wilson should have all the opportunity in a game where the Dolphins are 14-point favorites at home.

Wilson will be piling his plate high, and he’s a smash play this week.

❄️ Allen Lazard @ PHI

Besides the poor passing environment and Aaron Rodgers’ reported broken thumb, the deck keeps stacking for their weapons, like Allen Lazard and Christian Watson.

Tack on a stifling secondary in Week 12 to their laundry list of concerns.

The Eagles are a top-eight team in terms of giving up fantasy points to WR, and per PFF, they’re allowing the lowest passer rating, lowest yards per attempt allowed, and the third-lowest explosive pass-play rate allowed this season.

The Packers’ offense has been anything but explosive this season until Watson arrived on the scene as a starter. Watson’s five touchdowns in his last two games will undoubtedly normalize, but Lazard’s previous three games have been woefully inefficient, with him catching less than half of his 25 targets in the last three weeks. He’s also averaged just 9.1 fantasy points in his last two games.

It’s reasonable to expect that Watson might just be the top target in the passing game for the Packers now, and Lazard is playing second fiddle. Lazard is a touchdown-or-bust fantasy option in Week 12; frankly, it’s been more “bust” lately than not.

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— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife)
Nov 27, 2022