Popular podcast host quits day job (h/t)…
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Wildgrain:
- The Packers can’t be ignored
- The Most Explosive Players: The Niners say, ‘sup
- The latest on Mike Tomlin
- What Now? Stay ahead of recency bias…
- It’s 1/17. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
The Green Bay Packers flipped the playoff picture on its head when they upset the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday.
They’ll face a much stiffer test this Saturday in San Francisco, but everyone is now wondering the same thing…
Can they do it again?!
Kyle Shanahan hilariously admitted that they started prepping for Green Bay before halftime on Sunday:
When I saw this line open up at Niners -10, I immediately thought it was disrespectful to a red-hot Packers squad. It’s since come down a half point to -9.5:
The Niners are a scary team as is, much less with a week of rest and a fully healthy squad (CMC was a full participant in yesterday’s practice).
But I can’t shake the feeling that the Packers are very live in this spot. The hallmark of this team is how aggressive they are willing to play.
It’s much easier to throw on the Niners than it is to run, as evidenced by our DvP metrics:
Maybe the Packers won’t be able to pull off the upset, but at the very least I expect them to keep this game closer than the spread would indicate and not go down without a fight.
Matt LaMarca made a strong case for taking the over in this game (50.5) and I’ll be tailing him, as well as sprinkling in some GB +9.5 and a little GB moneyline as well.
While you are at it, be sure to check out a Packers WR who Geoff Ulrich likes to go over 41.5 receiving yards.
It’s simply too much fun to not bet on the underdog here. Go cheeseheads.
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If we’re hunting for big plays, then these are your guys. Take it away, Ian…
💐 Baltimore Ravens: WR Zay Flowers
- Receiving: 77-858-5
- Rushing: 8-56-1
The electric rookie receiver earned the nickname “Joystick” during training camp and it’s easy to see why: Flowers ranked fourth in missed tackles forced per reception this season on his way to constantly making defenders look silly in the open field.
Flowers just edged out QB Lamar Jackson in terms of his playmaker rate (1.05 vs. 1.04), undoubtedly thanks to his strong end-of-season stretch:
- Week 12: 5-25-1 receiving, 1-37-1 rushing
- Week 14: 6-60-1
- Week 15: 1-7-0
- Week 16: 9-72-1
- Week 17: 3-106-1
The Ravens needed someone to step up in the passing game after losing Mark Andrews (fibula, IR); kudos to the 2023 NFL Draft’s 22nd overall pick for being that guy, pal. The Texans had better hope they do a much better job getting him to the ground this time around.
👨🍳 Buffalo Bills: RB James Cook
- Rushing: 237-1,122-2
- Receiving: 44-445-4
Cook ranked first in explosive receiving rate (22.7%) and sixth in explosive run play rate (13.9%) among RBs with 50-plus targets and 150-plus carries, respectively. He’d be even higher on this list if it wasn’t for a trio of dropped TDs (one, two and three), but hey: It’s Cook’s ability to win downfield that earned him those sorts of targets in the first place: No RB had a higher average target depth than Cook (2.4) with a minimum of 25 targets.
The rushing ability on display was truly solid, as Cook averaged a robust +0.45 rushing yards over expected per carry – tied for the eighth-highest mark in the NFL.
While Josh Allen might be the TD scorer, the Bills’ second-year talent undoubtedly provided plenty of sparks this season on the back of 1,567 total yards. This was never more apparent than back in Week 14 against this very same Chiefs defense when Cook posted 10-58-0 rushing and 5-83-1 receiving lines – Buffalo might need a similar effort this time around if they hope to avenge their 2020 and 2021 playoff losses to the Chiefs.
🚀 San Francisco 49ers: WR Brandon Aiyuk
- Receiving: 75-1,342-7
This one was tough because the 49ers obviously boast such a ridiculously deep group of playmakers:
Aiyuk is the only player in the entire NFL averaging an explosive catch (15-plus yards) on over 50% of his receptions (55%).
- Deebo Samuel provided plenty of booms as a receiver (60-892-7) and rusher (37-225-5) – particularly when fully healthy down the stretch (nine TDs in his last six full games).
- George Kittle is the only TE to average an explosive catch on at least 40% of his receptions. Second-place TE Kyle Pitts is only at 30.2%.
- Christian McCaffrey leads the NFL in explosive run plays (10-plus yards) while also supplying plenty of goodness through the air on his way to capturing fantasy MVP honors.
Ultimately, the former WR gets the nod because it's not supposed to be this easy to rack up yards. Consider: Aiyuk’s 1,342 yards are the most in a season with fewer than 110 targets since the metric began being tracked back in 1992.
The 2023 49ers join the 2018 Chiefs and 2016 Falcons in a three-way tie for the most explosive passing offense since 2010. Up next is a Packers pass defense that ranked … 24th in explosive pass play rate allowed this season. Gulp.
🎭️ So much for the Mike Tomlin drama. Are you buying it?
🤝 Teamwork makes the dream work. Help us take home some hardware!
🧃 These players still have juice. Four win-now WRs to target.
🧥 NFL jersey jackets are all the rage. 400,000 new Instagram followers in 4 days!
📈 Two WRs jumping into WR1 territory when their teams need them most. Utilization Takeaways you NEED.
✍️ The Divisional Round matchups are set. Dive in with everything you need, bets, and more.
🍿 Eagles fans are so done with Nick Sirianni. Get your popcorn.
💥 The Saints shake up their coaching room. Time for some fresh faces.
🏴☠️ The Bucs are spreading it around now? That’s a new development.
💪 Jason Kelce was a freak. What a play.
The fantasy football season might be over, but we are NOT ready to unplug. Cooterdoodle is here to keep our minds in check by asking the age-old, evergreen question: “What Now?”
Our brains work in fascinating ways, and timing is everything.
If we want to be one step ahead of our fantasy rivals, we’ll need to be aware of the cognitive bias that’s been well established during the playoffs every season: “Recency Bias”. That is, how humans assign more importance to events that have happened recently.
Or as I like to call it: “Guy played great yesterday? Guy is good!” And the inverse also applies.
If we want to take advantage of this for fantasy purposes, we’ll need to consider how playoff performances inevitably shape our evaluations of a future player/team.
Here are a few players that may fall victim to this year’s recency bias…
🏃 Staying Ahead of the Recency Bias
💫 Dak Prescott
Just two weeks ago we were hearing about Dak Prescott’s chances at being awarded the 2023 NFL MVP award. And now, just a few days later, some fans are questioning his future with the team.
But… Remember, Dak finished seven of his 17 regular season games as the QB3 or better. And what’s more impressive is that he only logged three games as the QB20 or worse. Three.
While you don’t have to decide which side of the Dak fence you’re on just yet, you do need to recognize how the Cowboys’ performance during their final game of the 2023 season is going to be remembered by others. Recency Bias is king, and it comes for us all.
🦵🏻 Aaron Jones
If you drafted Aaron Jones four months ago, his injuries and singular top RB5 finish likely left you stressed and searching for replacements throughout most of the year.
But OH BABY. Jones’ 3 TDs versus the Cowboys on Sunday did feel rewarding. Finally our Twitter chants of “#FeedAaronJones” were addressed!
But… That hat trick resulted in more TDs than Jones had scored during the entirety of the 2023 regular season.
So while I love watching Green Bay feed him the ball, be aware of the shift this performance could have on his ADP, especially if he can keep it up against the 49ers this weekend.
👑 Puka Nacua
Sure, Puka Nacua finished the regular season with 1,486 yards and 6 TDs as a f*cking rookie.
But… He also broke the rookie receiving yards record for an NFL playoff game this weekend with 9-181-1. And his 50-yard TD during the Rams’ Wild Card matchup is definitely going to stick in all the crevices of your brain.
Just remember that someone might draft Puka way too early next season based on his final performance. And yes. That person is me.
During the offseason, once the dust settles on the season and everything has cleared, there will be some lasting effects on our memories from these final games.
Stay on your toes! Stay vigilant! And always respect the recency bias.
