🤔 Can You Start These 2 Returning WRs??

by Peter Overzet

1 year ago

Aaron Rodgers calling Travis Kelce a “Pfizer bro” is pretty rich…

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by GameBlazers:

2 impact WRs set to return
Fantasy’s biggest disappointments: Will Olave bounce back?
Players to upgrade or downgrade after Week 4
Buy, Sell, Hold: Sell Puka?!
It’s 10/4. Take it away, Peter Overzet…

The bye weeks have finally arrived, which means we won’t have access to the Browns, Chargers, Seahawks, and Bucs this week.

Luckily, reinforcements are potentially coming for our fantasy teams in the form of Cooper Kupp and Jameson Williams.

The big question, though, is whether we can trust them in our lineups on Sunday.

Let’s dig in…

🤔 Will Cooper Kupp suit up vs. the Eagles?

Jay Glazer hinted at this on Sunday and now it seems legitimately possible that Kupp could return to the field in Week 5.

On The Athletic Football show yesterday, Dianna Russini outlined the situation. Here are the relevant details:

The Rams are “taking it day-by-day” and the “hope is that he plays”

The injury is not as serious as the team initially thought

The team will be conservative with him and see how it goes in practice this week

All in all, this is great news for the Rams and Kupp managers. Reading between the lines, though, it seems like Kupp’s availability is a true coinflip for this juicy matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles:

We’ll have to see how the practice reports unfold over the next few days, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the emergence of Puka Nacua gives the team more leeway to be patient with Kupp’s return.

🤔 Jameson Williams is back, but can you start him?

Williams, who recently had his suspension reduced by one game, is eligible to play for the Lions this week.

He returned to the practice field for the first time yesterday, and all indications are that he is good to go for action on Sunday vs. the Panthers:

As Matthew notes here, there’s no need for the Lions to thrust Williams into a full-time role out of the gate with how well Josh Reynolds is playing, but you should absolutely be stashing him where possible.

The quotes from Lions Head Coach Dan Campbell confirm that Williams will be eased into action:

"If he does play, he can’t play 60 plays. That’s not smart. So we can’t do that to him. So we’ll see where it goes. It’s all about improvement, no different than the rest of the team. Every week, we just got to get a little bit better. He just needs to get a little bit better, and we’ll take it from there."
Dan Campbell, Lions Head Coach

It’s a bummer we can’t fire him up in his nice matchup vs. the winless Panthers, but keep an eye on next week’s matchup with the Bucs if the usage is there.

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Players who have struggled to get anything going through four weeks of action won’t necessarily continue to dud throughout the rest of 2023. Assessing what exactly has gone wrong can help determine whether we should be looking at these disappointments as buy-low candidates, or if continuing to simply cry and sulk is probably the best move.

Because of this, Ian is here to break down the biggest fantasy football disappointments through the first four weeks of 2023 – not including players who were simply injured and physically unable to even suit up.

😭 Najee Harris, Steelers

Preseason ADP: RB14

Current rank: RB34

As someone who drafted Jaylen Warren more than any other RB in best ball land throughout the offseason: I would love to sit here and point out that Harris has been playing terribly and deserves to be benched for his second-year backup.

But that’s simply not what is going on. Harris has actually been playing the best football of his career as a pure rusher:

The two main problems in fantasy land are the utter lack of scoring opportunities inside of this abysmally-schemed Matt Canada-led “attack”, as well as Warren holding a commanding 22 to eight lead in the target department.

Overall, Harris has gone from the RB2 (19.7) in expected PPR points per game as a rookie, to the RB12 (14.9) in 2022, to somehow just the RB43 (8.4) through four weeks of 2023.

One could blame Harris for his past underachieving negatively influencing his present-day workload; just realize the brutal lack of production here is far more so due to the enhanced usage of Warren, the porous performance of PFF’s sixth-lowest graded offensive line in run blocking, and the Kenny Pickett experience than a true indictment on the third-year Alabama product.

Sadly, it’s unclear if this offensive environment as a whole is going to be fixed for the better anytime soon. Pickett (knee) has avoided serious injury, but also isn’t guaranteed to, you know, be better moving forward.

Throw in head coach Mike Tomlin’s confirmation that nothing is changing at offensive coordinator or with play-calling responsibilities, and expecting a turnaround from Harris falls more into the “hope” than “expectation” department.

😭 Chris Olave, Saints

Preseason ADP: WR11
Current rank: WR36

Unrealized air yards are a good metric to help pinpoint unlucky WRs who have earned all sorts of fantasy-friendly downfield opportunities but simply haven’t been able to translate them to box-score success.

The NFL’s “leaders” in this very metric through four weeks of action:

Olave (353)
Tee Higgins (292)
Kendrick Bourne (282)
A.J. Brown (273)
Davante Adams (245)

While average target depth plays a role here, it's probably not a coincidence that Olave has received the fourth-highest rate of uncatchable targets among 39 WRs with at least 25 pass-game opportunities this season. Derek Carr has been an unideal mix of bad and injured this season, while it remains unlikely the coaching staff fully embraces the Jameis Winston experience anytime soon.

Glass half-full view: Olave has missed out on more potential opportunities than any pass-catcher in the NFL. He’s bound to cash in on more of these opportunities moving forward because he’s a really good football player.

Glass half-empty view: Olave has missed out on more potential opportunities than any pass-catcher in the NFL. His inconsistent QB play has been the problem and isn’t guaranteed to get any better.

I’d still bet on Olave finishing as a WR2 or better by the end of the season, but expecting the sort of top-12 production you drafted him for is more so a bet on Carr and/or Winston putting forward MUCH better performances the rest of the way.

At a minimum, I don’t like the chances of that happening Week 5 in New England.

MORE on fantasy’s biggest early-season let downs

🐎 Another superstar returns to practice this week. Is a trade imminent?

🤣 Gabe Davis takes TD celebration requests. So good.

🤔 Social Media’s biggest Matt Canada apologist is…Matt Canada? That’s a bold strategy, Cotton…

📊 A new QB1 in town? A WR1 riding the struggle bus?? Players to UPGRADE and DOWNGRADE.

👑 Jameis Winston, DGAF king. Gotta make the most of your opportunities.

🤫 Always stay one step ahead. Four players on the cusp of breaking out.

🤢 More bad news for the Steelers. They need a bye week badly.

🚀 NFL WR target leaders after Week 4. A rookie sits a the top.

🤗 Anthony Richardson? Confirmed good guy.

🙏 Pray for the Bengals. They need it.

Week 4 is in the books! Cooterdoodle is back to walk us through the fantasy landscape from a buy, sell, hold perspective…

🛒BUY

📈 Justin Herbert, QB - Chargers

There are three reasons to buy Justin Herbert:

The injury scare discount
The Chargers are on BYE in Week 5 - discount x2
He quoted Monty Python in his post-game presser

If you can stash him for a week, Herbert is poised to be decently affordable prior to Week 5 kicking off. If not because of the BYE, definitely due to the flesh wound.

Oh wait, I found two more reasons to buy Justin Herbert:

He currently ranks 5th amongst QBs in passing yards (1,106). (That’s more than Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts.)

He is tied for 7th in passing TDs (7). (That’s one fewer TD than Patrick Mahomes, by the way.)

Even if he’s not 100% healed after a full week of rest and relaxation, Herbie can still sling it. Seriously, look:

Takeaway: Who needs 10 fingers anyway?

🛒 SELL

📉 Puka Nacua, WR - Rams

Cooper Kupp is returning soon. In fact, it’s looking likely that he starts against the Eagles in Wee- Okay, are they gone?

We are NOT selling Puka. I just needed this headline out there to convince my leaguemates that they need to sell Puka to me.

I want 100% Nacua rostership. No, I need it.

Who I would consider selling, however, is Tutu Atwell. While Atwell has been serviceable as the Rams’ WR2 in Kupp’s absence, his floor is likely going to be pulled out from under him after Kupp’s return.

While I would love to see all three WRs dominate the rest of the season, it’s unlikely that Matthew Stafford can feed everyone. This isn’t to say that Atwell won’t have some good weeks ahead, but they’re going to be less frequent with Kupp and Nacua sharing the field.

Takeaway: If my friends ask, we are ‘selling Puka’.

🛒 HOLD

📉 Isiah Pacheco, RB - Chiefs

Like Patty Mahomes said after their Week 4 win against the Jets, “You can win pretty, but you have to win ugly, too, to win Super Bowls.” If we want to win championships, it might not always be the first-round RBs that get us there.

While you might want to put feelers out there to see what you can get in return for a trade, I’m going to trust the numbers and hold.

The memes are fun, but what really matters is that Pacheco’s usage has increased every single game this season. And his Yards After Contact… Yeah, that’s really good, too.

I’m holding on and ready to see where this man can take me.

Takeaway: Pacheco: The Punisher of Earth.

More Players to Buy, Sell, or Hold for Week 5

Peter Overzet