Good morning, grab your pads. You are the starting QB for the New England Patriots…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter, we’re asking for your feedback:
- The Rams get healthy
- Morning Download: A key RB downgraded
- Bets from the Group Chat: Go long, George Pickens
- Garrett Wilson is pissed
- Hidden Gems: Scroll to Steelers
- It’s 11/26. Take it away Peter Overzet…
For a brief second, I considered leading today’s newsletter with the New England Patriots’ dysfunctional QB situation, but then I wised up and realized how inconsequential it is to today’s fantasy slate.
Instead, let’s dive into something far more interesting—the Los Angeles Rams getting back to full health just in time for a juicy matchup…
👋 Kyren Williams is back
The last time we saw Rams RB Kyren Williams was in Week 6 vs. the Arizona Cardinals.
Before hurting his ankle in that game, Williams was operating as one of the few, true bellcow backs in the league. He had amassed 456 rushing yards, 105 receiving yards, and seven total TDs.
After a long stint on IR, he’s finally been activated and will start today vs. Arizona.
The big question, of course, is whether he’ll return to a similar workload that he enjoyed early in the year.
Here’s what head coach Sean McVay said when someone asked about him returning to his 90+% snap share:
"You want to make sure that you're able to get him in the flow of the game, but 95% is something that we definitely want to be mindful of taking some snaps off him."
Sean McVay
Due to the ambiguity, our team of rankers have him valued as a rock-solid RB2, which sounds about right to me:
That said, the plus matchup vs. a poor Cardinals run defense coupled with the team already waiving Darrell Henderson indicates that there could be upside for even more here.
For more on Williams, check out one of our favorite bets down below.
👋 Cooper Kupp is ready to go, too
In addition to the return of Kyren, the Rams will also have Cooper Kupp available today.
Despite leaving the Rams game early in Week 11 with a right ankle sprain, Kupp got in a full practice on Friday and is good to go.
I understand there’s likely some hesitation with firing up Kupp coming off an injury and four straight weeks under 7 PPR points, but this is a terrific matchup (he put up 9–148-1 in their first meeting) and you shouldn’t be scared.
The public would be discussing him in a much different light if he didn’t go full sheesh last week vs. the Seahawks on this free play:
Both Kupp and Nacua are Top 12 WRs today.
🛠️ Everything you need for Week 12
Read on for more info in the Morning Download on D’Onta Foreman, Rachaad White, and the Chiefs’ WRs.
For everything else you need for Week 12—including our Inactives page, which will update shortly after 11:30 am ET with all of the relevant status updates—you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.
See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:
The NFL landscape is constantly changing, with players’ statuses getting frequent updates throughout the week. Unfortunately, that includes Saturday.
If you were doing something better than following the NFL during the weekend – lucky you – let’s get you caught up on everything you might have missed courtesy of Matt LaMarca...
🤕 D’Onta Foreman Doubtful
The Bears got Khalil Herbert back from injury last week, creating a bit of a logjam in their backfield. Foreman was operating as the lead back in his absence, and he provided some solid fantasy value in that role. However, his snap share dipped to just 24% in Week 11, putting him behind both Herbert (44%) and Roschon Johnson (32%).
Foreman exited the game in the third quarter with a hamstring injury, and he’s been a limited participant at practice during the week. However, that didn’t stop the Bears from hitting him with a doubtful designation for Monday Night Football vs. the Vikings.
His likely absence is probably a blessing in disguise for fantasy players. Instead of having three mouths to feed at running back, now there are only two. Herbert should take on most of the early-down responsibilities, while Johnson will operate as the third-down back.
🚨 Rachaad White Pops Up Late
A late addition to the injury report is never a good thing, and that’s exactly what happened to White this week. He was a full participant at practice all week, but he was added to the injury report as questionable on Saturday.
Fortunately, we received word overnight that “he’s fine.”
Per Adam Schefter, he was added as “a matter of precaution” after it “briefly locked up on Friday.”
The late-breaking injury designations have been a controversial topic this season (remember the Bijan Robinson migraine that was never reported?) so the Bucs were likely just trying to be completely above board.
Still, we should expect to see a healthy dose of Baker Mayfield and the pass-catchers today. The Bucs are one of the worst running teams even with White healthy, so they could opt for a more pass-heavy attack if he’s limited. In a solid matchup vs. the Colts, that would give them a solid boost. Mayfield is currently ranked as our No. 20 quarterback for Week 12, but it wouldn’t shock me if he outperformed that expectation.
📉 Chiefs Receivers Go From Bad to Worse
The Chiefs’ receivers have been much maligned this week, and rightfully so. They had a dreadful game vs. the Eagles on Monday night, with Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson, and even Travis Kelce all committing crucial mistakes.
Things look even bleaker heading into Week 12.
Kadarius Toney was ruled out with ankle and hip injuries, while the recently reacquired Mecole Hardman was placed on IR. There is really no help in sight for Patrick Mahomes, who is going to have to make chicken salad with chicken… you know.
From a fantasy perspective, the only Chiefs’ pass-catchers that are really worth considering at this point are Kelce and maybe Rashee Rice. Rice is our No. 41 receiver this week, so even he is pushing it.
For as good as Mahomes is, this offense is not going to provide a ton of consistent fantasy production. It’s time to just accept it and move on.
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Welcome to Week 12 of Bets from the Group Chat. This is where Geoff elicits as much information as he can from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their leans for this week. It’s really a selfish endeavor as he’ll probably be using some of their plays to offset his own losers.
After a couple of near misses, the group chat parlay record has moved to 3-4. The good news is that we’re still up +13.39 units, overall, since this started (assuming one unit bet per parlay).
We went 2-1 on the individual plays the last two weeks as well and, overall, the singular bets are an incredible 16-5 since inception.
As always, we have three separate plays from three different sources for our parlay AND, if parlays aren’t your thing, we also have the weekly ladder target.
1️⃣ Mark Drumheller Likes: Ravens -3.0 (-110, BetMGM)
- Play to: -115
Here are Mark’s own words from our FREE bet tracker:
“Ravens getting healthy with Stanley back, and Flowers expected to give it a go. LA missing Everett is key against a solid Ravens defense that has the personnel to lock up the Chargers’ limited weapons. LA's rush defense is mid from a success rate and EPA per rush perspective when you filter out garbage time (20th on first downs).”
2️⃣ Geoff & Freedman Likes: Rams -2.5 and Kyren Williams 60+ rushing yards (+185, BetMGM)
Williams went for over 100 yards and over 20 attempts in two of his last three games before hitting IR AND is playing the Cardinals who have allowed the third most yards to opposing RBs.
If we like Williams to have a good day then we should like a Rams cover as well. In those two games where Williams sailed over 60+ rushing yards the Rams covered on each occasion. L.A. is also facing a Cardinals offense that may be down two WRs – Michael Wilson (out) and Marquise Brown (questionable) – and will have a weaker D-Line than usual with DL Kevin Strong ruled out, and more key defensive players listed as questionable.
🤝 Putting it all together: +613, BetMGM SGP
- Ravens -3.0 (-120)
- SGP: Rams 2.5 & Kyren Williams 60+ rush yards (+185)
You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account here!
🚀 Week 12 Ladder Bet
Ladder bets are where you spread your unit allocation over different milestones.
The idea is to access bigger payouts while maintaining some exposure to the higher probability outcome lines as well.
The Week 12 ladder targets are below.
🚀 George Pickens, WR - Steelers (BetMGM)
- 50+ rec yards (+110) - play to +100
- 75+ rec yards (+330) - play to +310
- 100+ rec yards (+700) - play to +650
Cincinnati has now allowed 43 explosive pass plays (20+ yards) on the season (third-most) AND will be without their top corner in Cam Britt-Taylor this week as well. Despite the poor stretch of late, Pickens has gone for 100+ yards in three games this season (in 10 games) already and should be freed up for more targets this week with OC Matt Canada finally being let go by the team.
Given that we have now seen five different WRs go for 80+ yards against the Bengals in their last four games, playing Pickens through 75+ and 100+ yards this week looks like a solid upside venture for Week 12.
🔥 Turning paydirt into paydays. Best TD scorer bets for Week 12.
👀 Two elite QBs square off in prime time. Everything you need for Sunday Night Football.
🥊 In-fighting in Pittsburgh? Diontae Johnson got heated last week.
💰 Need Week 12 bets? We’re up +24.99 units in the last 30 days and have over 25-plus FREE bets waiting for you.
🤣 Maybe the Jets should sign “Tia” to play QB...worth a shot.
🚀 No team has allowed more PPG to WRs than the Eagles. Stefon Diggs szn, anyone?
😡 Garrett Wilson is pissed. Hard to blame him.
🔨 Break out your tool kit. Week 12 bets to hammer.
👟 Mike McDaniel loves his shoes. That’s dedication.
🤫 The RB quietly enjoying an awesome season. Sneaky.
Everyone knows the best plays. Jalen Hurts, Jonathan Taylor, A.J. Brown, Travis Kelce. But what about the sleepers no one else is on? Those are the guys that can vault you to the top of the leaderboard. In this weekly piece, Pete will go treasure hunting for Hidden Gems that you can draft in Battle Royale contests on Underdog Fantasy and in DFS contests.
💎 Steelers Stack
- Diontae Johnson (ADP: 36)
- Jaylen Warren (ADP: 34.3)
- Pat Freiermuth (ADP: 35.9)
- George Pickens (ADP: 36)
I understand why there isn’t a lot of enthusiasm for the Steelers this week, but their entire offense is going mostly undrafted on a slate without a ton of high-end options.
There’s also reason for optimism that things could finally be turning around for a team that just fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada, who was dialing up a truly bland scheme that lacked creativity.
One of the best ways to profit in daily fantasy football contests is to fade concerns about matchups and bet on volume. This is exactly what happened with Saquon Barkley in Week 11 and he rewarded drafters with a tournament-winning score.
We can look to do something similar this week with Johnson (36% target share in Week 11) and Pickens (23% target share in Week 11), who both are earning targets at a high rate.
Here are a few of the WRs going ahead of Johnson and Pickens: Noah Brown, DJ Chark Jr., and Justin Watson.
This is a dynamic we should be looking to exploit.
Similar to the Jags pieces I liked last week, I don’t want to be double-stacking Kenny Pickett or onslaughting an offense in a game with a 36.5-point total, but I love the idea of scrolling down and selecting a Steeler at the end of my drafts.
Warren, who is emerging as the next Austin Ekeler right now, is a great selection. As is Freiermuth, who should be fully ramped up (only 39% of the routes in Week 11) after returning from IR.
