If only the Super Bowl champions had a speedy playmaking WR to open up the offense…
In today’s Betting Life newsletter, we're asking for your feedback:
- Chiefs: Something’s wrong…
- Adjusted Scores: 49ers DOMINATE!
- Early Lines: Cowboys vs. Eagles…
- Chargers: Technically, a team can cover without TDs.
- MNF: Jags. Bengals. Yawn?
- It’s 12/4: Take it away, Matthew Freedman…
As we exit Week 13 and enter Week 14, here’s a miscellany of three random thoughts.
🎰 Fortune Favors the Favorites
In Week 12, favorites were an overwhelmingly positive 12-4 ATS (43.1% ROI), and they followed that up last week with an 8-4 ATS (27.1%, per Action Network) record in Week 13.
For the year, they’re 101-86-5 ATS (2.9% ROI).
As I noted in last week’s Monday Betting Life Newsletter, much of this performance has been driven by the league’s top teams, who have dominated as favorites.
- Dolphins: 7-1 ATS (66.4% ROI)
- Cowboys: 8-2 ATS (52.5% ROI)
- Jaguars: 6-1 ATS (63.4% ROI)
- Eagles: 7-2-1 ATS (42.8% ROI)
- Lions: 7-3 ATS (33.1% ROI)
- Ravens: 7-4 ATS (20.9% ROI)
Maybe their ATS records as favorites will even out as the season closes, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
✅ Brock Purdy… MVP?
In yesterday’s Betting Life Newsletter, I made the case for why the NFL MVP will likely be an NFC QB.
It’s a projection, but I now think MVP will be 49ers QB Brock Purdy. He entered yesterday’s game No. 1 in AY/A (9.8) and EPA + CPOE (0.205, per RBs Don’t Matter) — the two individual statistics most predictive of MVP voting over the past decade — and then he led the 49ers to an emphatic 42-19 road win over the vaunted Eagles while passing for 314 yards and four TDs with no INTs.
People hold against Purdy the fact that he has great surrounding talent and plays in a strong scheme, but he’s the league’s most efficient QB, and he’s on the best team.
Based on how MVP has been awarded in the past, those factors are almost all that matter.
But he also has the narrative factor.
This is an award voted on by sports writers.
Sports. Writers.
A guy going from Mr. Irrelevant one year to MVP the next year — while returning from an elbow injury that forced him from the NFC Championship and put his 2023 season in jeopardy — is a story that writes itself.
📉 Mayday Mahomes
After losing their season opener by one point due to unfortunate drops and the absence of TE Travis Kelce, the Chiefs reeled off six straight wins.
But since Week 8 they’ve lost three of five games and had a -6 point differential.
QB Patrick Mahomes hasn’t played poorly, but he’s yet to establish a consistent and strong connection with any pass catcher aside from Kelce — and I can’t say definitively that the Chiefs are better than the 6-6 Bills, who are traveling to Kansas City this week fresh off a bye.
Entering Week 13, the Bills (+6.41) were ahead of the Chiefs (+6.15) in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings, and Mahomes & Co. did little against the Packers to impress me.
I’ve bet Bills +3 at Chiefs for Week 14 and logged it in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.
Kevin Cole is the proprietor of Unexpected Points (a sports analytics newsletter), and each week he reviews every game and provides his “adjusted scores” based on the underlying production data. Here is one excerpt from his advanced game reviews for Week 13.
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special teams, penalties, fumble luck, etc.).
📊 Adjusted Scores Table
- “Pass”: Pass rate over expectation (based on the context of each play and historical averages)
- “Success”: Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs. actual score
- “H & A”: Home or away team
🦅 Eagles vs. 49ers
- Final Score: 19-42
- Adjusted Score: 16-33
This game was a fierce validation of my power rankings and the betting market, which had the 49ers as the clearly better team going into this game. The national media should catch up with a dominant 49ers offensive and defensive performance.
The 49ers’ 59% offensive success rate was the second-best in 382 sides this year, second only to the 62% success rate posted by the same 49ers against the Cardinals in Week 4. The Eagles' 33% offensive success rate was their worst of the season.
99.9% percentile efficiency for the 49ers: Enough said.
The Eagles vastly outperformed in efficiency their poor success rate based on a handful of third-down conversions that kept the game somewhat close. They converted on 3rd & 19, 12, 10, 9, 7, 6, 5 and 3 yards to go. The Eagles averaged -0.11 EPA per play on first and second downs, +0.73 on third and fourth downs.
The 49ers were somehow even better on late downs (+1.1 EPA per play) but also stellar on the lower-leverage early downs (+0.35).
Will Brock Purdy finally get some love in the MVP markets? Again, he didn’t get (or better yet need) a ton of volume, but his 24.1 total EPA is the ninth-highest for any quarterback this year. Purdy got some juice to those numbers with a ton of YAC from Deebo Samuel (115 of his total 116 receiving yards), but he also made plays down the field (healthy +9.7 EPA only on air yards).
Jalen Hurts had a good game, but his generally weaker defense was too much to overcome against this level of offensive performance on the other sideline. Hurts actually had lower total EPA tallies in five different Eagles wins early this season.
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Pelicans (+4.5) at Kings (-110; BetMGM)
The Kings are sitting at 11-7, but they haven’t been the same squad to start the 2023 season. Their offense is down to 13th in offensive efficiency after leading the league in 2022, and they’re just 19th in Net Rating.
The Pelicans have fared better despite having C.J. McCollum for just eight games. The trio of McCollum, Zion Williamson, and Brandon Ingram has played just 91 minutes together, but the Pelicans have a Net Rating of +4.6 in that sample.
Finding early betting value — and grabbing as much closing line value (CLV) as possible — is one of the easiest ways to become a better bettor. Matt LaMarca dives into a few bets to consider attacking early in the week.
🤠 Cowboys (-3.0) vs. Eagles
- Current Line: Cowboys -3.0 (-115; Caesars)
- Opening Line: Cowboys -1.0
- Target Range: Cowboys -3.0 or better
Matthew Freedman, Geoff Ulrich, and I discussed the marquee 49ers-Eagles matchup in-depth on our Sunday live show. While Freedman and I disagreed on how to approach the spread in that contest – I liked the 49ers, Freedman liked the Eagles (suck it, Freedman) – we both agreed there was merit in targeting the Cowboys at -2.5 before that game kicked off.
Sure enough, the -2.5s are all gone at this point, and this number is even up to -3.5 at some locations.
If you weren’t lucky enough to jump on the Cowboys early, I suggest grabbing a -3.0 while you still can. Even though the Eagles have the better record, the Cowboys are clearly the better team on paper.
In terms of expected record, the Cowboys are currently sitting at 9.5-2.5. The Eagles entered their showdown with the 49ers at 7.0-4.0, and things are only going to look worse after another disappointing performance.
The Eagles have now been outgained in five straight contests. While they managed to escape the first four with victories, the 49ers plastered them by 23 points in Philadelphia. The 49ers also managed to make the Cowboys look silly earlier this season, but at least that game was played in San Francisco.
The 49ers are head-and-shoulders above the rest of the league right now, but the Eagles’ previous performances are what’s concerning. They survived against the Chiefs, Bills, and Commanders, but the Cowboys are a completely different animal, especially when playing in Dallas.
Dak Prescott is putting up MVP-caliber numbers, and Dallas ranks third in EPA/play on both sides of the ball. The Eagles are fifth in offensive EPA/play and 27th on defense, so Dallas seems like the clearly superior squad.
With this line already on the move, grabbing a -3.0 is imperative while you still can. This number is heading to 3.5, and if it gets there, it might even flirt with 4.0.
🐏 Rams (+7.5) at Ravens
- Current Line: Rams +7.5 (-110; FanDuel)
- Opening Line: Rams +7.0
- Target Range: Rams +7.5 or better
This is another game that has opened right around a key number. The Rams are listed as 7.5-point underdogs in Baltimore, but I think this number is clearly headed to seven. They’re already down 7.0 at some locations.
The Rams have looked tremendous offensively when healthy this season. They scored 37 points against the Cardinals in Week 12, and they followed that up with 36 points against the Browns in Week 13.
The Ravens are going to represent a tough test, but with Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Kyren Williams all rolling, I think they’ll be able to hold their own.
Meanwhile, the Ravens are still a bit of a question mark after losing Mark Andrews to an injury. Their game against the Chargers in Week 12 was much closer than the final scoreline suggested.
Lamar Jackson has historically been great as a home favorite, but getting 7.5 just feels like too much. Stafford has only been an underdog of at least four points in three previous contests as a member of the Rams, and he’s 2-1 ATS in those matchups.
📈 If draft capital is cool, consider us Miles Davis. The Bears’ draft position only got sweeter after Sunday.
🧀 Death, taxes, and someone betting obscure first TD scorers. There is ALWAYS a ticket.
💰 Speaking of TD scorers… this one finds himself in a great spot tonight.
⚡️ Points? We don’t need no stinking points. The Chargers pulled off a miracle for bettors on Sunday.
🐆 Cat people unite! The Bengals and Jaguars meet on MNF and we have bets! Up over +16 units in the last 30 days.
😅 This is fine (again). The Patriots keep setting records themselves… for futility.
💎 So you’re telling me there’s a chance? This receiver continued to show why he’s one-of-one in skill set.
👿 The North remembers. Revenge is a dish best served cold… at Lambeau Field… on SNF.
⛏️ A runaway freight train. Can anyone stop the gold rush happening in San Francisco?
📺 Need more bets for MNF? We’ve got you covered before kickoff.
Monday Night Football features the Bengals at Jaguars, and Geoff Ulrich is here to highlight some of his favorite bets for the game…
👍 Best Bet: Under 40.0 (-110; BetMGM)
- Bet to: 39.5 (-110)
Jacksonville has run up the score on a couple of weaker opponents recently (Titans, Colts) but those were also divisional games, and it’s worth noting that the Jaguars are 5-1 to the under in non-divisional games.
The Bengals played their first game in the non-Joe Burrow era and the results went as expected: ugly. Cincinnati barely managed to clear 250 total yards and scored 10 points. Despite the poor showing on offense, their complex, bend but don’t-break defense, under DC Lou Anarumo was able to hold the Steelers to 16 points and kept the game close.
Then, we have the primetime under trend. This year, the under has a 23-3 record on MNF and SNF. Taking it back even further, the under over the last 35 SNF and MNF regular season games, combined since the start of the 2022-23 season, is 32-3 (per The Action Network).
With a little bit of wind expected (potential gusts of 10 mph+), it’s almost a no-brainer that we keep riding this money-making trend for one more week.
⬆️ Player Prop: Trevor Lawrence Over 3.5 rush attempts (-115, BetMGM)
- Bet To: over 3.5 (-120)
- Fantasy Life Projection: 4.2
If you look at Trevor Lawrence’s rushing usage this year a couple of things pop out. First, his designed run rate of 8% is about the same as last year but his scramble rate is up to 7% (vs. 4% last year). Second, Lawrence has tended to rush more when the Jaguars are winning big.
In the five games where he’s rushed 5 or more times the Jaguars came out as winners of five or more points — in all but one game. Lawrence is no Jalen Hurts but the Jaguars haven’t hesitated to call his name in the red zone either. His 10 red zone rush attempts is tied for ninth among all QBs.
When you add in the possibility of late-game kneeldowns (those count as carries) the over here looks pretty enticing. We have Lawrence projected for over 4.0 carries in our aggregate projections making this a solid one to attack for MNF.
🚀 Evan Engram anytime TD (+290, FanDuel)
- Bet To: +250
Evan Engram hasn’t scored a TD all season. So, naturally, we are going to try and time his first TD of the year this week 😏.
In all seriousness, if this does ever happen for Engram (finding the endzone in 2023), it seems likely to happen in this game. As I wrote in the Week 13 TD props article, the Bengals are an A+ matchup for any TE:
“The Bengals lost two starting safeties last year in Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates and their mid-field coverage has suffered greatly. They grade out as one of the worst coverage units against TEs and have allowed the most yards and fifth most catches against to opposing TEs in 2023. Last week they allowed Pat Freiermuth to go for a career-high 120 yards on 9 receptions.
At +250 or better I’m fine with taking a shot in this terrific matchup that Engram can finally get off the mat and stop hanging with the sad and lonely TD-less crowd after Week 13.”
