You don’t have to go home, but you CAN’T STAY HEREEEEEEEE.
In today’s Betting Life newsletter, presented by Underdog:
NBA Monday: Can the Heat shock the world again?
2025 NFL Draft: It’s never too early to look at the No. 1 pick odds.
NHL Playoffs: The Stars can shine again.
It’s 4/29. Take it away, Matt LaMarca
Win or go home. Those are the stakes for the Lakers and Pelicans on Monday. They currently find themselves facing elimination, while the Heat are looking to avoid a 3-1 series deficit vs. the Celtics. They managed to shock the world with a win in Boston in Game 2, but they came crashing back to reality in Game 3.
We had our first team punch their ticket to the second round on Sunday, with the Timberwolves completing a four-game sweep of the Suns. Can the Nuggets and Thunder join them on Monday? Let’s dive into some of my favorite bets for tonight’s slate.
☘️ Celtics -10.5 at Heat (-108; DraftKings)
The Heat upsetting the Celtics in Boston was easily the biggest surprise of the postseason. The Celtics were the best team in basketball by a comfortable margin during the regular season, and the Heat don’t even have their best player at the moment. Yet without Jimmy Butler, this team managed to walk into the Celtics’ building and secure a 10-point victory.
How is that possible? Well, the Heat shot the ball ridiculously well from 3-point range. They knocked down 23 of 43 attempts (53.5%), and they outscored the Celtics by 33 points from the perimeter. Tyler Herro knocked down six triples, while Caleb Martin, Jaime Jaquez, Nikola Jovic, and Haywood Highsmith were a combined 14-21.
The Heat’s 3-point volume is going to make them a volatile team on a night-to-night basis. They made a lot of shots in last year’s playoffs, which is why they made it all the way to the NBA Finals. When they don’t make shots, they’re not going to be particularly competitive. We saw that in Game 3 back in Miami, where the team managed just 84 points in a 20-point loss.
Which version of the team will show up on Monday? There’s no way to know for sure, but Boston was much more focused on contesting their 3-point looks in Game 3. I would expect that to continue in Game 4, and the Celtics were sixth in Opponent 3-point Percentage during the regular season. As long as the Heat don’t get hot from downtown, they’ve shown no ability to compete with the Celtics in this series. I’ll take my chances with the road favorites.
⬆️ C.J. McCollum Over 2.5 3-pointers (-115; DraftKings)
McCollum has been thrust into the lead dog role in this series, and frankly, he’s just not cut out for it. He’s shot just 37.9% from the field and 22.7% from 3-point range, which is a big reason why the Pelicans have been noncompetitive. Still, he’s put up 22 total 3-pointers through three games, so asking him to make three in Game 4 seems reasonable. McCollum shot 42.9% from 3-point range this season, so he’s more than capable of knocking down some shots.
More Bets for Monday’s NBA slate
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🧢 More baseball action on deck. Monday’s best bets around the MLB.
👑 Jalen Brunson is the King of New York. He does something that hasn’t been done in the postseason since the GOAT.
🦁 Detroit sets the record. More than a quarter of a million people showed up for the 2024 NFL Draft.
🥇 With the 2024 draft in the books, the 2025 odds are live on DraftKings. The favorite to go No. 1 has a familiar last name.
🐻 No shock, Caleb Williams opens as OROY favorite. But plenty of talented names are lurking behind him, at big odds.
😿 No love for Jacksonville. The Jaguars’ draft did not inspire bettors.
📉 The Rockies make history the only way they know how: the bad way. They’ve now trailed in all 28 games to start the year.
🫣 Predators moneyline bettors, AVERT YOUR EYES. This missed empty net set up an epic Canucks comeback.
The NHL playoffs move on today with a two-game slate. The Stars and Golden Knights play in a pivotal Game 3 (in a series where the home team has yet to record a win), while the Lightning will look to stave off elimination again against the Panthers. Geoff Ulrich has his favorite bet for today — and a futures play to target for another series — below…
🌟 Stars win in regulation (+145; bet365)
Dallas outshot Vegas badly again in Game 3 and likely would have won going away if not for the heroics of Logan Thompson, who stopped 43 shots in the loss. There is much to be gained psychologically from a breakthrough like that. While Vegas is a team we don’t want to underestimate, it’s also important to remember that — outside of goaltending and special teams — they have been the weaker team in this series.
Dallas leads all playoff teams in xGF% going into Game 4, and you have to figure that at some point, the Stars’ special teams may actually show up and lead them to a more lopsided win. I also would not want to keep betting on Thompson posting save percentages of .950 or better every night. While he is undoubtedly locked in, his regular season was marked by some poor performances (mixed with solid stretches like we are seeing right now).
I don’t want to talk down Thompson too much, but Dallas is dominating the chances so much that it’s hard not to want to play them again – especially since their betting numbers in Game 4 remain nearly the same as they were in Game 3. In fact, with the momentum now shifted, this is a good time to take a bigger swing and play the regulation line with Dallas. The Stars were a dominant road team this season, and with them carrying the play, tonight seems like the spot where they finally break through for an easier win.
🎸 Predators (+1.5): Series Handicap (+270; FanDuel)
It’s easy to write off the Predators after their Game 4 meltdown saw them blow a 3-1 lead with less than 5 minutes remaining. However, looking at the bigger picture for betting is also smart.
The Canucks still have goaltending issues they will have to overcome (either backup Casey DeSmith or third-stringer Arturs Silvos is likely to start Game 5). Silvos held up pretty well in Game 4 considering the circumstances, but what’s concerning for Canuck fans is how little they have carried the play in this series. Vancouver was down mid-way through the third in Game 1, was down the majority of Game 4, and was badly outshot in both games in Nashville.
Nashville hasn’t dominated the way that the Stars have (who are also down in their series), but given how close this series has been, Nashville likely needs a break or two to go their way in Game 5 (breaks they didn’t get in Nashville), and we’ll be back in Nashville for Game 6 — where they will likely be decent favorites. I think the current Nashville +1.5 games line is worth taking a small piece of at this price, and it’s a bet that would certainly provide good hedge equity should we get back to Nashville after Tuesday’s pivotal Game 5.
More NHL Playoff Bets for Today…
