🎄 Could anything be better?

It's the most wonderful time of the year.

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter we hope that you and your loved ones have a happy & healthy holiday season! 

• Happy Holidays from the Fantasy Life Team!
• Dear Cooter: Traditions
• Christmas Day Game Previews
• It’s 12/25. Take it away, Jordan Fiegleman…

Look, we know that you're busy today, so we'll keep it simple. If you need help with you're fantasy matchups, or if you need some action on today's games, we have you covered. 

• GAME HUB - Everything you need to know about each game all in one place.
• INACTIVES - updated at 11:30am ET for 1pm games
• RANKINGS - Full Week 13 rankings for multiple scoring settings from Dwain & Waz
• FANTASY LIFE TWITTER - If news breaks, we'll have it.
• START/SIT TOOL - Debating who to start? Simply type in both players to this tool, and we'll tell you the best option:
• PLAYER PROPS TOOL - Our freshly updated props tool is here to give you the best bets for each game.

🎄 Happy Holidays from Fantasy Life! 🎄

Feeling lost in life? Need help with your fantasy football team? Cooterdoodle is here to help. Send your questions about fantasy, or life to dearpete@fantasylife.com

Hi there! My family has a tradition of buying underwear for each other as gifts, and making the other person wear them on their head as a hat. Should this tradition be snuffed out?

I'll hang up and listen!

- @gingerbe3rdman

Dear Gingerbe3rdman, I’m a firm believer in traditions and the power of ritual. The most mundane actions can bring friends and family together through the power of tradition. However, the problem arises when we forget the origin of our actions and what drove them in the first place, only to lose ourselves in the ritual.

We must ask ourselves: Are we just going through the motions? And you must specifically ask yourself: Does someone in my family own stock in Calvin Klein? (seriously, you might want to look into this.)

You see, every Sunday morning I wake up, make coffee, and sift through every single league as I tinker with my lineups. Then, 30 minutes before kickoff, I do it all over again (sans coffee). This tradition is common amongst those who celebrate fantasy. We bond over the stresses of this tinkering tradition, but overthinking is a dangerous game. 

Am I tinkering to better my team, or am I tinkering out of habit? Am I obsessively switching Rashid Shaheed in and out of my lineup because Chris Olave was ruled out and I’m hoping he could log another 95 yards and a TD in Week 17, or do I just want to feel alive?

Traditions are wonderful when they serve their purpose. So, I’ll leave you with this be3rdman:

Does your family sport their underwear hat with pride?

Does the act of wearing butt jackets on your head… fulfill you?

If the answers are ‘yes’, keep the tradition alive. Because I can promise you this: I’ll never stop tinkering.

We have 3 Christmas Day games on the docket and our game preview team is here to break each matchup down for you. For game info, stats, and picks & plays check out the Gamehub!

Take it away, LaMarca...

☃️ Packers at Dolphins (-3.5) – 49.5 total

The first game of the NFL’s Christmas Day slate should be a fun one. The Dolphins are currently riding a three-game losing streak, but they remain in good shape to make the postseason. They’re sitting at 8-6, which gives them a 72% chance of qualifying for the playoffs. If they win this week versus the Packers, their playoff odds improve to 99%, but a loss is not a killer.

They finish the season with divisional matchups against the Patriots and Jets, who are also in the hunt for Wild Card spots. If they win both of those contests, they’ll qualify for the postseason regardless of what happens against the Packers.

However, the Packers need to basically win out to have any chance of reaching the playoffs. A stretch of seven losses in an eight-game span put them behind the 8-ball, but two straight wins have put them on the periphery of the NFC playoff picture. Their current playoff odds are just eight percent, and a loss to the Dolphins drops them to just one percent. A win against the Dolphins increases their playoff odds to 20%, and if they can follow that up with wins against the Vikings and Lions, they will likely make the postseason at 9-8.

That’s a steep hill to climb, but the Packers have started to play better as of late. Their offense has scored at least 24 points in four of their past five games, and they are as healthy as they’ve been all year at receiver.

Romeo Doubs joined emerging rookie Christian Watson and veterans Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb last week, giving the team their top four receivers for the first time in a while. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon also form a solid 1-2 punch at running back, and Aaron Rodgers obviously has an impressive resume as a three-time MVP.

The Packers’ offense is going to need to show up if they’re going to have any chance against the Dolphins. Their offense has been one of the best in the league all season, ranking ninth in points per game and fifth in yards per game.

They did hit a brief two-game skid against the 49ers and Chargers, but their offense bounced back in difficult conditions last week versus the Bills. They racked up 29 points and 405 yards of total offense, and while that wasn’t enough to win, it bodes well for their prospects moving forward.

The sharps have been all over the Packers to start the week, which has caused this number to dip to 4.0 in some locations. The thought of grabbing Rodgers as a moderate underdog is definitely appealing. Since he took over as the Packers’ starting quarterback, the Packers have gone 20-14 against the spread as an underdog of greater than a field goal. Not all of those games have been started by Rodgers, but most of them have been. Even in what has largely been a dreadful year by his standards, Rodgers is still 2-1 against the spread in that scenario this season.

With the Dolphins slumping and this game ultimately not meaning all that much to them, this could be the right time to target Green Bay.

Take it away, Jonathan...

 ☃️ Broncos at Rams (+3) – 36.5 total

The afternoon game on Christmas Day features two teams I would never have expected to be 4-10 each coming into this matchup. The Rams are without numerous starters on both sides of the ball and are somehow still just 2.5-point underdogs against a Broncos team that is getting Russell Wilson back this week.

This game will be telling for Baker Mayfield now that he’s had a few weeks to get familiar with the offense and will be playing in ideal conditions inside of SoFi Stadium. The Broncos’ defense has been great all season, allowing the fourth fewest passing yards on the season.

They are also the only team that has more interceptions (13) than passing TDs allowed (12) for the year. I’m not a Baker believer and his 6.3 yards per attempt ranks 36th in the NFL this season, so I expect the Denver defense to get the better of this matchup.

To make matters worse, the Rams’ offense continues to lose pieces, with Ben Skowronek the latest player to be ruled out for the season. The passing game should flow through Van Jefferson, Tutu Atwell, and Tyler Higbee. Hopefully you aren’t relying on any of them in season-long leagues, but they all provide interesting options if you are playing the Christmas DFS slate.

Jefferson in particular stands out to me as being underpriced across daily fantasy sites considering the lack of target competition and his role in the downfield passing game, which could allow him to pay off on just one or two big plays.

It seems Cam Akers has a firm hold on the lead running back role after handling at least 15 touches in each of the Rams’ last three games. If LA is to get anything going, it figures to stem from success in the running game that can then open up the play-action passing game. Personally, I would like to see Kyren Williams get some runs before the end of the season, but that doesn’t appear to be in the cards for the rookie RB.

In addition to getting their starting QB back, the Broncos have also had Courtland Sutton return to practice with a real shot at playing in this game. His presence may be good for the offense as a whole but could cut into the targets available to the other pass catchers. Jerry Jeudy, who excelled while playing outside in Sutton’s absence, will likely go back to playing more snaps out of the slot.

This makes Jeudy a negative regression candidate, and Sutton is difficult to trust coming off of a hamstring injury that caused him to miss two and a half games. 

If Sutton isn’t available, Jeudy should be a solid WR2 again this week but with this game kicking off after most others this week, you may have to make your lineup decisions without knowing Sutton’s game status. 

The two Broncos that are most trustworthy are Latavius Murray and Greg Dulcich, who are both low-end starters with decent projectable volume per the Fantasy Life consensus rankings. Neither of them offers tremendous upside, but in a week full of low game totals and nasty weather, you could do much worse at their respective positions. 

Our betting expert, Geoff, is on the Broncos at -2.5 and I agree.

Their defense should easily limit the Rams’ offense and put Russell Wilson and company in short-field situations. The Rams have very little to play for and are among the most talent-deficient rosters in the league following their recent rash of injuries. I think the spread should be multiple points wider and I expect the Broncos to handle the Rams with relative ease.

There’s no way Wilson could make me regret that prediction, right? 

Take it away, Chris Allen...

☃️ Buccaneers (-7.5) at Cardinals – 39.5 total

I’m frustrated with both of these offenses, as they’ve underachieved relative to expectations. But Tampa Bay will still likely make the playoffs, while the Cardinals have franchise-changing decisions ahead of them. It would be reductive of me to say we should focus on the team not starting their third-string quarterback, but there are fantasy options from both teams to consider.

We saw the Buccaneers get back to their roots on offense against the Bengals. Tom Brady’s play-action passing rate was up to 30.4% (above 20.0% for the first time since Week 10), which helped him get to 13th in passing success rate. While he wasn’t as efficient (19th in EPA per play), he can still distribute the ball to his pass catchers.

Since the team’s bye, Chris Godwin has led the team in total targets (43) and, more importantly, red-zone looks (7). His 69.8% target rate from the slot is like an easy button for Brady. And the matchup tilts in Godwin’s favor.

Jerry Jeudy accrued 48 of his 76 yards from the inside, and the Chargers’ interior crew of Keenan Allen, Joshua Palmer, and DeAndre Carter combined for 84 yards and two scores. Godwin’s 23.8% TPRR puts him in the WR1 conversation, but there’s another Bucs receiver with a similar workload.

No, it’s not Mike Evans. Evans has run just 19.7% of his routes from the inside, and the Brady-Evans downfield connection has yet to get back on track, with only two deep receptions in four weeks. He’s a low-end WR2, as Brady has looked his way the most when under pressure (12 targets). But it’s Russell Gage who has stepped up over the last month.

To be fair, four of Gage’s 12 targets in Week 15 came on the final drive of their blowout loss to Cincinnati. Regardless, his route deployment looks like Godwin’s, giving him flex appeal in PPR formats. But our biggest headache will be deciding what to do with the running backs.

Leonard Fournette’s situational usage gives him the inside track, but Rachaad White’s red-zone touch rate and target share keep him fantasy-relevant. Both are worthy of a start after watching Latavius Murray grind his way to an RB1 result (favoring Fournette) and another rookie RB finding the paint in Week 14 (giving credence to White).

On the Arizona side, it’s tough to expect much from Trace McSorley in his first start. After Colt McCoy exited last week, the offense averaged 18.8 yards per drive and dropped to a -9.1% passing rate over expected. Marquise Brown was a late addition to the injury report, pushing him further into WR3 territory. So a focus on the core options is prudent with so much on the line this weekend.

You don’t need me to tell you to start DeAndre Hopkins. But I can at least make you feel better about it. McSorley targeted Hopkins on 40.0% of his attempts. The veteran receiver is right behind Brown in slot targets, which should keep his fantasy production afloat in Week 16. And I’m not too worried about James Conner either.

Conner was second in looks from McSorley against the Broncos, so his floor is safe in PPR leagues, especially if Brown isn’t at full strength. Plus, it’s not like anyone is coming for Conner’s workload.

I thought the team would look more into Keontay Ingram, but a random touch for Corey Clement is the only thing keeping Conner from a complete backfield takeover. Tampa Bay is league average in rushing EPA allowed since their bye. His team environment may be suboptimal, but Conner’s RB1 workload is tough to find elsewhere in the fantasy semi-finals.

Knew this Giants defense would be meh against tight ends way back in the summer. That’s why we drafted TJ Hockenson everywhere in best-ball fully knowing the Lions would trade him inside the division to the Vikings where we also wouldn’t have to worry about the weather conditions

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz)
Dec 24, 2022