We see you drafting that best ball team while at work. Don't worry, we won't tell...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:
- Hmm, could Terry McLaurin be traded?
- How to handle Jalen Hurts & the Eagles in best ball
- Why the Bengals will need to adapt in 2022
- Full Disclosure: Elijah Moore
- Team preview: Tampa Bay Bucs
- It’s 6/16. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
If there's one theme to this offseason, it's been stud WRs getting paid.
We've seen Tyreek Hill ($30 million), Davante Adams ($28.25 million), Stefon Diggs ($26 million), A.J. Brown ($25 million), and Cooper Kupp ($22 million) all get massive contracts over the past few months that will pay them handsomely in 2022 and beyond.
It's no surprise then that the other elite WRs want to be paid similarly and that's exactly where we find ourselves with Commanders wideout Terry McLaurin right now. He is currently sitting out of OTAs as he angles for an extension.
Requesting a trade is a lever Mclaurin's camp can pull to help with negotiations, though Coach Ron Rivera says it's not happening:
Whether McLaurin deserves to get paid similarly to those other WRs is a thorny debate. It's hard to untangle his talent from his situation. We'd certainly view him differently if he played with Josh Allen and he's still put up rock solid numbers throughout his career despite subpar QB play.
I'm guessing this will ultimately get resolved in one way or another, similar to the Deebo Samuel situation, but this will be worth monitoring throughout the summer.
It's hot best ball summer around here, which means in addition to discussing macro strategies, we need to be on top of specific team and player situations to make the best possible selections at every pick. Today, Jonathan Fuller puts the Eagles under the microscope and Pete weighs in as well.
The Philadelphia Eagles are a fascinating case study for best ball. The team that ranked dead last in the NFL in pass attempts from 2021 has three pass catchers currently being drafted in the top 100 picks on Underdog. Two of those players (A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith) are being drafted before the team’s top RB, Miles Sanders, who goes in the 7th round.
The player at the center of these seemingly strange ADPs is none other than third-year QB Jalen Hurts. For casual fans, it might seem weird to see Hurts ahead of proven commodities like Russell Wilson and Tom Brady, but fantasy is a different game and rushing upside warrants this type of premium pick regardless of his success as a passer.
What is less certain in this Philadelphia offense is just how many pass-catchers Hurts can support. The reality is, if the offense looks the same as last year, all three players could disappoint at their current ADP.
However, there are a few reasons to think that the Eagles passing game can provide a lot more production in 2022.
Since Nick Sirianni took over as head coach, the Eagles have invested heavily in pass-catching weapons by drafting Smith 10th overall in 2021 and then trading for and signing Brown to a massive extension earlier this offseason. Reports out of early Eagles practices are that Hurts has shown significant improvement with his fundamentals and accuracy. Better weapons, an improving QB, and the second year in Sirianni’s system all suggest that this offense should be a lot better at throwing the ball in 2022.
Due to the cost of the premium Eagles players, I generally limit myself to just one or two of those pass-catchers when stacking this offense. I view Goedert as a nice value at his current price, so my favorite combinations are to pair him with one of Brown or Smith. I'm partial to Brown and he's currently my second most rostered player on Underdog at 22%, but I also want to increase my exposure to Smith over the 5% of teams he is currently on.
Editor's note: Jonathan has good taste. Brown is one of my most drafted WRs so far this year. He should be a mid-2nd round pick that instead regularly goes in the third.
We need to continue to monitor the cost of these players throughout the summer, but as long as their ADPs stay reasonable, I want to be drafting Eagles on a lot of my best ball teams (we’re focused on the passing game right now, but I like both Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell at their current cost as well).
To recap, the Eagles are an offense trending in the right direction and are being somewhat undervalued by the market in early best ball drafts. If Hurts continues to progress as a passer, this offense could suddenly become one of the most efficient and explosive in the league. That is exactly the kind of upside we want to target in best ball tournaments and I would recommend drafting them often, unless, of course, you’re drafting with me.
💦 WRs that are better in best ball. Lord Reebs highlights the boom/bust WRs capable of spike weeks.
📈 The next elite TE. History says a new one will join the ranks this year.
🐅 Why the Bengals offense will need to adapt. Defenses aren't going to be as naive this year.
💰 Minkah Fitzpatrick gets the bag. He's now the highest paid safety in NFL history.
🧸 A budding QB/WR bromance? Sounds like it in Chicago.
In this new series, our contributors will disclose their favorite players and tell us why they can't stop drafting them. Today, our CEO, Eliot Crist, gushes about a player he seriously won't stop talking about...
My Guy: Elijah Moore
Underdog Fantasy ADP: 67.6 (WR32)
Why: There are three things in life that are guaranteed - death, taxes, and Elijah Moore being open. Moore is a silky smooth route runner who dominated corners from day one with a 47.8% route win rate - the ninth highest in the league, and one spot higher than Justin Jefferson.
While it took the Jets time to realize how to get him the ball, once they figured it out, it was all systems go for the dynamic playmaker. In his final five games of the season, he had three top-nine performances, and two top-three performances, while averaging 78.4 yards and 1 touchdown per game. He was the number two overall receiver in fantasy during this stretch - despite playing with Mike White, Josh Johnson, Joe Flacco, and Zach Wilson. Moore also saw an 18% target share and a 23% target rate in his rookie season, a rare club to join.
There is a ton to be excited for based on his rookie season and it’s not like Moore came out of nowhere. The Jets drafted Elijah Moore with the 34th pick in the 2020 NFL draft. His size may be the reason he fell in the draft, because his production in college, especially 2020, was historic.
He saw 101 targets and finished with 1,193 receiving yards and eight touchdowns - in just eight games due to the covid shortened season. Averaging 157.1 yards from scrimmage in that season - the best mark this century and he did this at just 20 years old! Don’t just take my word for how good he is, A.J. Brown thinks Moore is better than him, while Odell Beckham sees huge things for Moore in his career.
The season is fast approaching, which means it is time for us to get to know all of these NFL teams and who we should be drafting and fading after a busy offseason. In today's team preview, Community Lead & dynasty guru, Sam Wallace, previews the Tampa Bay Bucs.
The Buccaneers fell to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Rams in the second round of the playoffs last season but they enter 2022 as one of the teams to beat. DraftKings has them projected for 11.5 wins which puts them atop the NFC and tied with the Bills for most in the league.
Rob Gronkowski, who followed Brady to Tampa Bay, is technically a free agent but should return this season. Gage is poised to be a big winner as he will operate as the WR2 behind Evans until Godwin is healthy. This offense, which passed at the highest rate last year, should remain potent in 2022.
- Tom Brady (ADP: 79)
- Leonard Fournette (ADP: 23)
- Mike Evans (ADP: 18)
- Russell Gage (ADP: 85)
- Rachaad White (ADP: 130)
- Chris Godwin (ADP: 54)