Can the Cowboys play on Thursday every week???
In today’s Betting Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:
- Market Motivation: Why are Cowboys -9?
- Quick Hitter: A Week 13 bet to hammer.
- UNABATED: How to pivot after NFL season.
- Panthers: Exactly HOW bad are they?
- TNF: Climb the ladder!
- It’s 11/30: Take it away, Matthew Freedman…
For the second Thursday in a row, we get the Cowboys (and, yes, Seahawks) in a spotlight game.
If you’re a Cowboys hater, I imagine it’s annoying. But if you’re a football fan, you’d like to watch a good team on TNF — and the Cowboys are good.
In fact, they’re good enough to be -9 favorites, although the spread has come down to -8.5 at some sportsbooks (as of Wed. 11/29 at noon ET).
Matt LaMarca highlights his favorite bets for the game later, but I want to look closer at the spread — not from a “Here’s what I’m betting” standpoint but from a “Here’s what I think about the forces moving in this market” perspective.
🚀 Market Movement
In the offseason, the Cowboys were -3.5 favorites for this game. Last week, they were between -6.5 and -7 in the lookahead market. On Sunday, this line opened at -7.5. And at some books, it hit -9.5 before dropping back to -9.
What’s driving this movement? Why is this number at -9 (instead of, say, -8.5 or -9.5)?
📊 Projections vs. Market
Most projections (which are usually based on power ratings) will likely show value on the Seahawks at +9. For instance, I have this projected at +8.25.
Bettors who rely on projections and take more of a data-backed approach will probably be on Seattle.
Additionally, bettors with a “buy low, sell high” mindset could like the Seahawks as underdogs off a bad loss facing a Cowboys team off a blowout win.
Historically, it has been profitable to back dogs off a big loss and fade favorites off a big win (per Action Network).
- Underdogs Off Loss of 15+ Points: 523-453-24 (3.9% ROI)
- Favorites Off Win of 15+ Points: 466-507-27 (-6.0% ROI)
- Combined Trends: 100-70-3 (14.3% ROI)
If this game has a “sharp” side, it’s probably the Seahawks.
That’s what (in my opinion) is keeping this number from reaching -9.5 or -10.
🤠 Cowboys as Favorites
So what’s keeping this line from dropping down to -8.5?
Simply, the Cowboys are too good. They lead the league in point differential (+162) and ATS record as favorites (8-1, 69.5% ROI).
When the Cowboys win, they annihilate. In their eight victories, they have a +26.4 point differential. The Cowboys pile it on against outclassed teams.
And this is a typical smash spot for QB Dak Prescott in the regular season.
- At Home: 32-22-1 ATS (15.0% ROI)
- As Favorite: 47-31-2 ATS (16.2% ROI)
Despite my projection, I’d probably go with the Cowboys if forced to bet at the current number. Especially against teams outside their tier, they look like one of the league’s best teams.
🤔 Teaser Protection
When this line was -7.5, I logged the Cowboys as a -1.5 teaser leg in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker, and I think it’s now at -9 instead of -8.5 partially because books are guarding against the outsized liability they might otherwise incur via teasers.
In other words, -9 is teaser protection.
I expect the direction this line goes will ultimately be determined by the battle between sharp Seahawks money and the books’ desire to keep this number out of the Wong zone.
Prediction: The sharps will “win” in that their action will force the books to capitulate and move the line toward the Seahawks… and then the Cowboys will win by double digits. It’s that kind of season.
Our friends at The Hammer Betting Network have been adding their favorite Week 13 bets to our Free Bet Tracker. Here’s one of the latest courtesy of Hitman…
Per Hitman, “Matthew Stafford struggles against man coverage and the Rams offense has poor splits against teams with an efficient pass rush like the Browns, which will make it tough for Los Angeles to get margin in this game.”
We’re closer to the end of the NFL season than we are to the beginning. So how do you prepare for what comes next? Jason Scavone from Unabated has you covered…
Week 13 is upon us. This means, by our rough, back-of-the-envelope math, there are only five more weeks of regular-season football after Monday night.
No one wants to see an NFL season come to an end, but if you’ve been exclusively betting on football, you need to think about what comes next if you want to stay in action through the spring and summer.
NFL prop bettors: it’s time to start planning your transition to betting NBA props.
We’ve got a couple of tips to get you started so you can seamlessly slide into the heart of the NBA post-Christmas schedule, just as the NFL is winding down.
🏀 Game Script vs. Minutes
How players get used in each sport is fundamentally different. And not just because Chris Paul would get flattened by your average defensive end.
In the NFL, props depend heavily on game usage. It’s important to have — or be able to create — an idea of what the game script is going to look like.
If the Chiefs play the Cardinals, there’s a good chance that Kansas City will have built a large, early lead and can start handing the ball off to minimize the chances of turnovers and keep the clock running.
And because of that, you might not expect Skyy Moore to rack up catches and yards.
On the other hand, NBA player props depend heavily on how many minutes they can be expected to play per game. Not always, of course (there’s always someone out there chucking up bricks every night) but usually there’s a linear relationship between minutes played and the counting stats like points, rebounds and assists.
Once you have your minutes down, a tool like the Props Simulator will show you distributions based on stats you project using minutes as your foundation.
🏀 Thin Out the Crowd
You get 11 players on offense in the NFL. Outside of the quarterback, scoring tends to be distributed. Just ask any one of your friends who needed a Keenan Allen TD to win their fantasy matchup Sunday night and got Gerald Everett instead.
In the NBA, you have five starters and might only have two or three top-tier players generating the bulk of the offense. It’s a star-driven league. If Tyreek Hill misses a game for the Dolphins, you might adjust Jaylen Waddle up a little, but the offense should be relatively stable.
If Joel Embiid is a late scratch, you need to scramble to adjust minutes and stats distribution for the rest of the 76ers.
More Tips to Prep for NBA Betting
🏈 Thursday Night Shootout on the Slate!
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Read on to see more bets from the Betting Life Team.
Kraken at Maple Leafs: Over 6.5 (-105, FanDuel)
Play to 6.5 (-120): Overall, the Kraken are 13-10 to the over this year. Six of their last seven game totals have hit seven goals or more. The Leafs are also 7-3 to the over in 10 home games this season.
The Leafs’ seventh-best power play should be in a good spot too, with the Kraken’s penalty kill ranking eighth-worst in the league.
✝️ Not any QB can throw a Hail Mary pick-six, so maybe Tim Boyle is worse than Zach Wilson?
📊 Updated objective power ratings: 49ers at the top, and no other team is close…
🔥 +17.65 units in the last 30 days and guess what? It’s all free.
⭐️ Dak Prescott > Jalen Hurts… or at least in this one metric.
📺 I guess people care about football. Michigan-Ohio State does wild TV numbers.
📈 Week 13 betting breakdown: All the #trendz.
💀 The inevitable is now imminent. One can’t stop Joe Flacco but can only hope to contain him.
💰 If they find paydirt, you enjoy a payday. TD bets for Thursday Night Football.
😶🌫️ Josh Allen MVP: RIP, but the dream remains…
💩 They’re bad… but are the Panthers all-time bad???
⚡️ They should be “charged” with a crime against humanity. The Chargers have wasted Justin Herbert’s rookie contract.
💰 Looking for more TNF bets? We’ve got you covered.
The Seahawks are coming off a blowout loss to the 49ers on Thanksgiving, and now they have to try to conquer the mighty Cowboys on Thursday Night Football. Can they put up a fight, or will the Cowboys continue to steamroll the competition? Matt LaMarca dives into his favorite bets for Seahawks-Cowboys.
🤠 Best Bet: Cowboys -8.5 (-110, PointsBet)
Given how dominant the Cowboys have looked in their wins this season, there’s not much of a reason to worry about the spread. They’re a near-perfect 8-1 ATS as favorites this season, with the lone exception coming on the road vs. the Cardinals in Week 3. The Cowboys were without three starting offensive linemen in that contest, so it’s not a huge shock that they struggled in that outing.
For his career, Dak Prescott has always taken care of business as a favorite during the regular season. He’s 47-31-2 ATS when laying points, including 14-6 ATS as a favorite of greater than a touchdown. The Cowboys may not be a reliable target for bettors during the postseason, but they’ve been very generous with covers in these spots during the regular season.
The public and the sharps both seem interested in Dallas in this spot, with the Cowboys commanding 81% of the bets and 88% of the dollars (per the Action Network). With that much money siding with Dallas, don’t be surprised if this number continues to creep toward double-digits leading up to kickoff. As long as you can get the Cowboys at -9.5 or better, I think they’re the right side.
⬆️ Top Prop: Zach Charbonnet Over 12.5 Carries (-120, BetMGM)
With Kenneth Walker missing most of the past two contests, Charbonnet has played on 86% of the team’s snaps and handled 75% of the team’s rushing attempts. Those are bell-cow numbers. Charbonnet hasn’t been hugely productive in either contest, but he still had at least 14 carries in both.
There are some potential gamescript concerns, but the fact that Charbonnet still had 14 carries last week vs. the 49ers is a major positive. The Seahawks were blown out in that matchup, but Charbonnet still got his.
Finally, the Cowboys are much more vulnerable against the run than they are against the pass. They’re 31st in rushing success rate, but they’re fourth against the pass. Add it all up, and Charbonnet should be busy once again.
📈 Ladder Bet: Tony Pollard TDs (FanDuel)
- 2+ TDs: +340
- 3+ TDs: +1600
It’s no secret that Pollard has been allergic to the end zone for most of the season. He has just four scores after scoring 12 times the previous season, and that was with Ezekiel Elliott receiving most of the goal line work. Rico Dowdle has just one fewer touchdown as the backup RB, so it’s been a really disappointing season for Pollard as a scorer.
However, Pollard is still getting plenty of redzone and goal-line looks. He’s second in the league with 7.8 expected rushing touchdowns, and he has 1.8 expected receiving touchdowns as well (per PFF). Overall, no one has underperformed their expected touchdown total by a worse margin than Pollard.
Eventually, that luck will turn around, and the Seahawks are a great matchup for it to start. Not only are the Cowboys sizable home favorites, but Seattle has allowed the fourth-most rushing touchdowns per game this season. It would not shock me if this was a breakout spot for Pollard, so I like the upside of multiple touchdowns way more than his anytime TD odds in this matchup.
You Want More TNF Bets? We’ve Got ’Em!
