🎠 Crazy Changes On The QB Carousel

Jarrett Stidham? More like Jarrett Start Him...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

• 3 Big QB Shakeups
• Week 17: Rankings & Tiers
• TNF: DAL @ TEN Game Preview
• Bets From the Group Chat. Betting on a rookie.
• It's 12/29. Take it away, Peter Overzet.

🥳 Happy birthday to our fearless leader! Make it a great day Matthew!

You'd think things would be settling down before the NFL playoffs, but yesterday featured a wild day of QB happenings. Here's everything you need to know...

🪑 Derek Carr Benched

In a very surprising move, the Raiders announced that they are benching Carr and turning to Jarrett Stidham as their new starting QB for the rest of the season. 

There are a couple of variables at play here, including Carr's atrocious play (he's thrown a league-leading 14 interceptions), as well as his contract situation (his salary of $33 million next year becomes guaranteed if he gets hurt), but it's clear that the Raiders are officially in the market for a new franchise QB.

In a move that can best be described as "you can't break up with me, I'm breaking up with YOU," Carr subsequently announced that he will be leaving the team for the final two games.

Over his nine-year stint with the Raiders, Carr only had two winning seasons, although I'd prefer to remember his tenure in a more positive light:

Can't wait for you to see what's next: derekcarrmusic.com

— Derek Carr (@derekcarrqb)
Aug 15, 2017

If you tossed out the Colts as a potential landing spot for Carr, congratulations, you made the overworked Twitter joke of the day. 

As for the Raiders' Week 17 matchup with the Niners, the spread has quickly moved from San Francisco -5.5 to -9.5.

It's impossible to sit either Josh Jacobs or Davante Adams with a championship on the line—we have them both still as top-12 options—but there's real implosion risk here if Stidham can't find his sea legs.

😔 Not much optimism for Jalen Hurts 

Reports out of Philly are that Hurts is unlikely to play this week against the Saints. Even more discouraging is the ambiguity around whether he'll even be fully healthy for the playoffs:

The Eagles still need one more win over their next two games (NO, NYG) to clinch the No. 1 seed, so it'll be interesting to see how the team handles the situation if they happen to lose.

Gardner Minshew is a fringe-QB1 option this week if you are in a pinch:

🚑 Tua suffered another concussion

The Dolphins QB is in the concussion protocol for the second time this season after suffering his third head injury of the year, and there is lots of legitimate concern about his ability to play football again this year.

Tua’s long term health is more important than playing again this year.

— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII)
Dec 26, 2022

The team is already preparing to face New England with Teddy Bridgewater at QB as they fight for their first playoff spot in five years. They need to either win out (@NE, NYJ) over the next two weeks or beat the Patriots while the Jets lose at Seattle. 

FYI: Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are still WR1 options, in case you were thinking about getting cute.

📁 Misc. QB Files

• Lamar Jackson (knee) is still not practicing, meaning we are likely getting another week of Tyler Huntley. The Ravens have already clinched a playoff berth, although they could win the division if they win this week vs. the Steelers and next week vs. the Bengals.
• Colt McCoy (concussion protocol) is expected to start Sunday vs. the Falcons. McCoy is a big upgrade over Trace McSorely for the entire offense.

🏈 TNF, LFG, Bet $10 to Win $200

If the Cowboys or Titans score a touchdown in tonight's showdown and you live in Maryland, Kansas, Illinois, or Louisiana, you’ll be $200 richer heading into the weekend.

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3. Bet on Any NFL Team

Dallas is third in the NFL in scoring, and they’ve got two potential 1000-yard rushers this season. Tennessee has the two-time NFL rushing leader on their side, but with his status not looking encouraging, it'll be up to Malik Willis to step up to the task of carving up a defense that has been more than generous over the last few weeks.

Sounds like 200 bucks…

Not in one of these four states, but still want in on the action this Thursday? Have your Junior Friday fun anyway:

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Going with your gut can only get you so far. Use our industry-leading rankings to gain an edge on your leaguemates. Need help? Don't worry, Dwain has you covered. 

Quarterback

🥇 Tier 1 – Justin Fields

Fields came up small in Week 16 with only 9.9 fantasy points against the Bills, but the frigid temps and high winds were significant factors. 

Since Week 7 –  when the Bears staff finally decided to incorporate their best weapon into their designed run game – the second-year QB averaged 26.2 points per game. The last time Chicago faced Detroit, Fields erupted for 40.4 points, including 147 yards and two rushing TDs on the ground.

Fields doesn’t have any notable weapons in the passing game, but the Lions have the worst-graded PFF coverage unit (43.5) and allow the third-most passing yards per game (276) in non-overtime play.

Ignore the Week 16 results, Fields is a SMASH play as a top-three QB in Week 17.

Running Back

🥇 Tier 1 – Saquon Barkley

Barkley has three top-eight finishes in his last three healthy games, and his utilization continues to sparkle. He ranks No. 1 out of all NFL RBs in snap share (80%) and route participation (62%). He sits fourth in rushing-attempt share (69%) and third in target share (17%).

The Colts allow the fifth-most rushing attempts per game (29.6) in non-overtime, and the Giants are six-point favorites in a game where they can punch their ticket to the playoffs with a victory.

Barkley has a great setup and is a SMASH play.

🥇 Tier 1 – James Conner

Conner is the No. 5 non-QB fantasy player over the last four weeks, averaging 22.2 points. While the Cardinals aren’t the offense we all hoped for, the veteran RB is the uncontested No. 1 option, averaging 23.5 opportunities (attempts plus targets) per game since Week 12.

This weekend the Cardinals face off against the Falcons, who allow the eighth-most rushing yards per game (133) in non-overtime play. Over the last four games, Atlanta has the fifth-worst PFF run defense grade (52.4).

Conner is a top-six RB in Week 17.

🥈 Tier 2 – Josh Jacobs

Jacobs and the entire Raiders offense take a step back, with Jarrett Stidham starting against one of the best defenses. 

The 49ers allow the fewest rushing yards per game (75) in non-overtime play. The veteran’s fantasy output trailed off over the last two games, averaging 9.5 points – and that trend looks to continue. 

Jacobs DOWNGRADES to a low-end RB1 that could perform more like an RB3.

🥈 Tier 2 – Kenneth Walker III

Walker accounted for 91% of the Seahawks' rushing attempts over the last two games, with a total of 38 totes. He also has seven targets over the last two games since recovering from the ankle injury that knocked him out of Week 13. 

Seattle will need to get their ground game going against a Jets defense that is very stingy against the pass but has allowed 120 yards per game on the ground since Week 7 in non-overtime play. 

Walker is a high-end RB2.

Wide Receiver

🥈 Tier 2 – Garrett Wilson

Wilson has enjoyed six games this season without Zach Wilson under center for the Jets. In those contests, he averages 19.3 points. In Week 17, Mike White will start at QB.

The calculus on this one is pretty straightforward – we are dealing with a superstar WR in the making, and New York faces the eighth-worst graded PFF pass defense (57.9) on the season.

Wilson UPGRADES to a low-end WR1 and is a SMASH play with Mike White back under center.

🤔 Who is motivated to play in Week 17? Hayden has you covered.

🙏🏻 Should we be worried about Austin Ekeler? We're scared.

🔥 This rookie could be an RB1 this week. Find out why.

🤑 This game is pure madness. Use it to profit in DFS.

🧨 The QB market is going to be wild this offseason. Check out these names.

📈 A Chiefs WR is set to return. The rich get richer.

🎨 Drawing Jimmy G every day until he gets traded. The gift that keeps on giving.

🤣 Is this a bit? This has to be a bit. 

🦷 Who got flossed in Week 16? Minty fresh.

🏆 It's Trevor Lawrence's time. He can lead you to a championship.

It's island game time, and we have you covered from a fantasy, DFS, and betting perspective. We also have previews and picks for every game in our Game Hub! Cowboys @ Titans, take it away, Geoff...

☃️ Cowboys (-9.5) at Titans – 40.5 total

Tennessee’s only path to the playoffs now involves winning the division, which they can still do by beating Jacksonville in their final game of the year. Before that showdown with the Jaguars, though, they have this meaningless Thursday night matchup against an elite Cowboys squad who won their fifth game in six weeks against the Eagles last weekend. 

Tennessee has almost no incentive to play their stars in this game. Running back Derrick Henry started the week on the injury report with a hip issue but did manage to do limited work on Tuesday. On Wednesday however, Henry and a laundry list of other Titans were ruled out.

Ruled OUT for the #Titans vs Cowboys:

QB Ryan Tannehill
DL Jeffery Simmons
T Nicholas Petit-Frere
S Amani Hooker
OLB Bud Dupree
LB Zach Cunningham
LB Dylan Cole
DB Josh Thompson

DOUBTFUL:
RB Derrick Henry
CB Kristian Fulton
OLB Denico Autry

— Jim Wyatt (@jwyattsports)
Dec 28, 2022

Rookie Hassan Haskins has been announced as the starter in place of Henry. Haskins has served mainly as the Titans kick returner in the regular season, taking just 11 carries this year, but would be the favorite to lead the team in carries with no Henry. The Cowboys defensive front has been tough on opposing RBs this season, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points against to the position, and Haskins will also likely have competition for usage from undrafted rookie Julius Chestnut (no relation to Joey, I think..), and quarterback Malik Willis. 

Willis is a different story. With Ryan Tannehill banged up, Willis will be locked in for the full game barring an injury. He’s averaged 7.5 rushes and 41.5 yards rushing in his last two starts, but that was with a healthy and active Derrick Henry taking 20+ carries. Don’t be shocked if offensive coordinator Todd Downing draws up more designed runs this week and utilizes Willis’ unique athleticism to counteract a very dangerous Cowboys pass rush. 

With Henry ruled out, Willis going for 50 yards or more rushing is a very intriguing addition to any single-game parlay this Thursday. More on Willis below. 

Dallas will come in revving at full throttle on offense. They’re second in the league in points per game over the last three weeks (33.2) and have averaged 38.3 points against the AFC South this year. The Cowboys are just 1-2 covering as away favorites this year but are likely salivating at the chance of beating up a depleted Titans team. 

Early money has been coming in on the Cowboys and pushed this line past a key number to where it’s now sitting at -9.5 points on BetMGM as of writing. While most of the industry is at -10.5 or more. 

That line still seems tame. Dallas is not scared to run up the score, and six of their 11 wins this year have come by 12 or more points. Their defense has been getting chewed up by outside WRs of late, but that won’t be much of an issue against the Titans, who averaged 4.13 yards per pass attempt last week. 

The Titans resting players has likely already been baked into this line somewhat. In that regard, if or when Henry (and others) officially get announced as out, you may even see this line swing back to under -10.0 again, where the Cowboys would be the greatly preferred play. 

Dallas has been great at spreading out the usage of late, but in a non-competitive game, don’t be shocked if we see CeeDee Lamb take a small step back. Prescott went to Lamb excessively against the Eagles and Jaguars because of game flow and the competitive nature of those matchups, but will likely take a more measured approach this week. 

Tony Pollard, who hasn’t scored in two games now, would be a great TD candidate for Thursday if he plays. Pollard popped up on the injury report this week, although Jerry Jones did indicate he expects Pollard to be on the field. The soon-to-be free agent has eight TDs of 10 yards or longer this year, and his receiving prowess would be a great asset against a Titans team that has allowed the sixth-most receptions to opposing RBs. 

This game has personnel decisions that will need to be monitored up until kick-off. Expect Malik Willis’ rushing opportunities to potentially skyrocket, while a Tony Pollard injury for the Cowboys would make them a far less certain bet to cover the massive spread.

Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what Geoff came up with for this week...All odds via BetMGM

There are a ton of key player injuries to note for Week 17 and multiple teams with little to no incentive to play starters. We’ve seen multiple big spread swings and totals move already and should expect more down the road as Sunday approaches. Below are a couple of highlighted bets where pending news could swing lines even more in our favor as we approach kickoff…

 💰 Malik Willis Over 40.5 Rushing Yards -115

The Titans have done the smart thing and made Derrick Henry doubtful for Thursday. In his last two starts (with Henry in the lineup), Malik Willis has averaged 7.5 rush attempts and 41.5 rushing yards. With Henry out, there is now an extra 20+ rush attempts up for grabs. While some of the work will be divided up with rookie RB Hassan Haskins, you can bet OC Todd Downing is scheming up some extra designed runs for the explosive Willis this Thursday. 

Have a day @malikwillis 🙌🏽

— 👑 Ricky Bobby 👑 (@rickybobby__22)
Dec 24, 2022

In games against Justin Fields and Daniel Jones this year (both big Cowboy wins), the Cowboys' defense allowed lots of easy yardage to both men once they were up in the game. Jones himself had his second-best day of the year as a rusher going for 79 yards on nine carries. Given the explosive Cowboys offense, Willis should have a positive game script and is in a great spot to set single-game highs in rushing yards. 

💰 Eagles -6.5 -110

This line needs to be jumped on now. Jalen Hurts is reportedly pushing to play this week, and if he does get confirmed as the starter, you will likely see this spread push up multiple points. Even if Hurts sits, what is there to worry about with New Orleans? They won in a blizzard last week in a game where Andy Dalton only had to attempt 15 passes but have scored more than 20 points just twice in their last seven outings. 

The Eagles' pass rush has been a menace of late, averaging 6.3 sacks per game over the last three weeks. Gardner Minshew will likely be asked to do far less in this game, and the Eagles should be able to run the ball more effectively against a Saints team that’s allowed 4.6 yards per carry on the year. 

Ultimately we have an Eagles team that is ranked top five in defensive and offensive DVOA going up against a pop-gun offense and an aging D-Line that allowed 231 rush yards to Atlanta two weeks ago. The Eagles are a healthy 6-1 ATS as home favorites this season, while the Saints are just 2-5 ATS as the away team. Get on this now before any Hurts news drops and the spread balloons past the key number of 7.0.