🔮 Cursed or Not, I Want This QB

I’m not superstitious… but I am a little stitious.

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter Presented by Wellcore:

• Reunions, age cliffs, and curses? Oh my!
• TE Tiers: Long Live the King
• Saints Preview: Let’s talk WRs
• The AFC South is going futuristic
• It’s 6/8. Take it away, Cooterdoodle…

In a world filled with statistics and hard facts, there is still some wiggle room for blind conviction. This is fantasy, after all. 

Three superstitious narratives are swirling around this week that you may want to keep your eye on. So, let’s break them down.

🤝 A Texans Reunion?

Earlier this week, Ian Hartitz broke down the best fantasy landing spots for DeAndre Hopkins. While many speculated there might be an upcoming reunion for him in Texas, news dropped Wednesday afternoon that may suggest otherwise.

If Hopkins finds himself on the Titans, he’ll be working alongside Mike Vrabel, who worked for the Texans from 2014-2016. There could be a rivalry bubbling in the AFC South.

So, do you think there will there be a Texans’ reunion…in Tennessee?

🤕 Curse or Coincidence?

The Madden 2024 cover was revealed yesterday with Josh Allen (and some of the Bills Mafia) front and center. Coincidentally, it’s just in time for Father’s Day. But along with the cover release comes talk of the curse.

You know…THE curse. 

Every parent warns their child of the infamous Madden curse, but does the data back it up? Sure, players that have graced the cover have been injured in the same year. But others have put together massively successful seasons under the exact same circumstances. (I miss you, Calvin Johnson.)

Here’s what we know: Allen has thrown 35 or more TDs three years in a row. Plus, he’s coming out of 2022 ranked third in TDs, behind only Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow.

Are curses real? That’s not for me to decide. But if there was a curse, I’d say it was against the Buffalo Bills. And I’d say Josh Allen just broke it.

🧗 Age Cliffs?

With 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey turning 27 this week, dynasty players are shakin’ in their boots! Well, maybe. While there is plenty of data to suggest there could be decreased performance in RBs as they reach the ‘age cliff’, it’s not guaranteed. 

We have seen Frank Gore, Marshawn Lynch, and Matt Forte, among others, perform better than their peers, even as Father Time tirelessly tries to catch them from behind.

In fact, while rare, some backs never hit their career-best performances until after they’ve turned 27.

While it’s important to consider all of the information available, McCaffrey is still a young enough buck to continue to perform at an elite level in 2023. Wish him a happy birthday, worry less about his age, and worry more about Elijah Mitchell.

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🌶️ A fantasy football cover athlete? Easy. 

📺 We’re less than 2 months away! Mark your calendars. 

🏋️‍♂️ Nooo setbacks. Not for Mr. Irrelevant.

🎶 A Dalvin Cook musical? Look out Broadway.

📞 New number in Carolina. Who dis?

🏟️ The future of stadiums is now. It’s coming to Jacksonville.

Dwain’s Top 150 rankings for 2023 are live now on FantasyLife.com. BUT today, he’s here to walk us through his tiers at the TE position…

👑 Tier 1 – Long Live the King

Travis Kelce | Chiefs

• Target-earning profile: TE1-3-worthy target earner, TE1-3-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: TE1-3-worthy PFF rec grade, TE1-3-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: Clear-cut No. 1 on a pass-first high-quality offense

Kelce is THE KING. Since 1991, he owns half of the top-six season performances at the TE position. Yes, he will be 34 this season, and this can’t last forever, but he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down.

In fact, if you read my WR Tiers, you probably already noticed that Kelce’s numbers look more like WR1 numbers. Last year his 2.23 YPRR and 91.3 PFF receiving grade ranked No. 1 out of all TEs with at least 250 routes.

The 11th-year veteran has been a cheat code in fantasy football. He was the only first-round pick last year to rank inside the top eight in playoffs advance rate on Underdog at 30%. Over the last three seasons, he has outscored the No. 3 TE by a whopping 6.4 points per game!

Kelce remains a buy at ADP because of his unique ability to separate your team from the rest of your league in dramatic fashion. Remember, only the QB position has produced more top-performing assets with 10-plus years of experience.

⭐ Tier 2 – Elite target-earners in quality environments

Mark Andrews | Ravens

• Target-earning profile: TE1-3-worthy target earner, TE1-3-worthy air yards
• Performance peripherals: TE1-3-worthy PFF rec grade, TE1-3-worthy YPRR
• Projected role: No. 1 receiving option on a balanced quality offense

Andrews exploded for 17.5 points per game in 2022, and over the first six weeks of 2023, it looked like he was once again strapped to a rocket headed for the moon. Before picking up a knee injury in Week 6, Andrews averaged 19.1 points, and his average target share was a mouth-watering 32%.

Despite missing time and playing through the injury, he still managed a 25% target share after returning in Week 11 but was only able to manage 9.9 fantasy points per game. Lamar Jackson was lost for the season in Week 13, and the entire offense suffered.

Andrews will get Jackson back this year but will have more competition for targets. Rashod Bateman is healthy, plus the Ravens added Zay Flowers in Round 1 of the NFL Draft and Odell Beckham Jr. in free agency. However, each of these players has question marks in their profile.

While a 30% ceiling target share probably isn’t realistic with the added competition, Andrews could still push for 23-25%. The 27-year-old is also a target monster in the endzone, averaging 33% of the targets in his last three healthy seasons, which gives him access to double-digit TD upside if the Ravens' offense improves under Todd Monken.

Andrews is a PRIORITY target in Round 3 of fantasy drafts after the high-end RBs come off of the board. He was the No. 1 TE in 2021 and checks the right boxes to have a chance to compete with Kelce.

What About The Other Tiers?

Fantasy Life senior analyst Ian Hartitz is breaking down all 32 NFL teams over the next two months. Let’s take a look at the Saints…

WRs

• Chris Olave (Ian’s WR15)
• Michael Thomas (WR48)
• Rashid Shaheed (WR78)
• Tre’Quan Smith (WR121)

Olave was pretty, pretty, pretty good as a rookie. Like, great. Like, “one of the most efficient seasons for a rookie the position has seen over the past decade” great.

All Olave did in 2022 was average the fifth-most yards per route run by a rookie receiver over the past 10 years:

• 2014 Odell Beckham Jr. (2.75 yards per route run)
• 2019 A.J. Brown (2.67)
• 2020 Justin Jefferson (2.66)
• 2021 Ja’Marr Chase (2.51)
• 2022 Olave (2.42)

Highlights included Olave making Jalen Ramsey a burn victim and plenty of route-running goodness.

And yet, Olave's 72-1,042-4 receiving line (in 15 games) “only” produced WR26 status in PPR points per game.

Olave is expected to make one of the bigger 2023 leaps of any WR with a top-24 ADP over at Underdog Fantasy.

Of course, that list is full of rising second-year WRs. The position does typically produce far more second-year fantasy studs than rookies.

Still, last season’s efficient performance probably (?) can’t get that much better, and it’s not a given that top-tier volume is on the way should Thomas stay healthy for a change. The Saints were a bottom-seven bad-injury luck offense last season in terms of adjusted games lost.

The aforementioned possibility that Carr isn’t a massive upgrade over Dalton adds further issues to the idea that Olave should be drafted as a top-12 WR. I’m not too far off from his positional ranking but haven’t found myself taking him at the 2/3 turn when stud RBs like Tony Pollard, Josh Jacobs, and Derrick Henry are still available.

And then there’s Thomas, who reportedly had hardware removed from his foot in early March. Head Coach Dennis Allen expects Thomas to be ready for the start of training camp. Although, it’s tough to be overly optimistic about the health of someone who has only managed to play in 10 regular-season games over the past three years.

Of course, Thomas did shine during his lone three appearances of 2022, mossing A.J. Terrell twice for scores and even finding the end zone vs. “slant boy” originator Carlton Davis in Week 2.

• Week 1: 5 rec-57 yards-2 TD (8 targets)
• Week 2: 6-65-1 (9)
• Week 3: 5-49-0 (5)

The Saints gave Thomas an incentive-laden deal with only $6.2 million guaranteed. Still, he’s fully expected to start alongside Olave in two-WR sets … if healthy.

Public perception is that Olave will still outperform Thomas if both are healthy for 17 games. I’m not so sure – the latter receiver still owns the NFL’s single-season reception record and seems like a better bet to soak up underneath and intermediate targets than Olave, who carried the position’s sixth-highest average target depth (14.9) among 84 qualified WRs last season.

Obviously, Olave deserves to be ranked far higher due to the health concerns here, but it’s likely that the ranks will be far closer when it’s time to project for Week 1 as opposed to the entire season. Thomas is priced right around Elijah Moore and Jameson Williams, two more receivers who are one good week of usage (or finishing a suspension) away from rocketing up the ranks.

I haven’t made a habit of dipping my toes too deep into the WR5 waters; that’s the range that some very good RB3s are still available. Still, Thomas is someone worth throwing some late-round darts at if you believe the documented evidence that players aren’t innately injury prone.

Oh yeah, and Shaheed. The man can ball.

Shaheed was actually more efficient than Olave in terms of yards per route run (2.59 – tied for third!)…if you move the threshold down to 34 targets (lol). He only wound up playing even half of the game’s snaps on five occasions; just realize the 24-year-old talent flashed in a major way in his limited opportunities last year.

Priced as the WR74 over at Underdog Fantasy, Shaheed is a viable late-round dart when attempting to complete a Saints stack and/or snag a Week 17 bring-back option.

What About Kamara and the Saints’ Backfield?

Listen to Ian Hartitz and Dwain McFarland break down the entire Saints’ rebuild here!

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