Does Sean Payton deserve the credit for fixing Justin Fields?
In todayās Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Webex:
- The Bears demolish the Commanders (sorry, Matthew Berry)
- Biggest Week 5 Fantasy Questions: Is it FINALLY Breece Hall week?
- Itās LOVE/HATE day: Matthew Berryās love for (Jordan) Love
- Matchup of the Week: Chiefs at Vikings
- Best Bets of the Week: J-e-t-s JETS JETS JETS
- Itās 10/6. Take it away, Ian Hartitzā¦
Justin Fields and the Bears took down the Commanders 40 to 20 on Thursday night, finally snapping their 14-game losing streak ā a 347-day stretch dating all the way back to Week 7 of last season.
Your 191-word Thursday night recap presented by Kona Big Wave Liquid Aloha (just kidding, but seriously: I love that stuff):
DJ Moore went absolutely bonkers, converting his eight receptions into 230 yards and three (!) scores. The performance could have been even bigger: Fields overthrew him on a potential 30-yard TD, and Iām still not convinced the ex-Panthers WR actually stepped out of bounds on this catch-and-run that never featured a close-up replay.
Justin Fields turned in his second straight rather awesome performance with 282-4-0 passing and 11-57-0 rushing lines. Heās averaged 30.4 fantasy points per game over the past two weeks compared to 13.3 during the first three games of the year.
Injuries doomed this Bears backfield, as Khalil Herbert (ankle), Roschon Johnson (concussion) and even primary special teamer Travis Homer (hamstring) were unable to finish the game. Healthy scratch DāOnta Foreman would be the next man up if Herbert and Johnson remain sidelined in Week 6.
Howell (388-2-1 passing) made more than a few b-e-a-utiful throws in the second half ā particularly this DIME to Terry McLaurin. And yet, Logan Thomas (9-77-1) and Curtis Samuel (6-65-1) worked as the leading receivers on a night that featured just 10 total targets for McLaurin (3-45-0) and Jahan Dotson (3-30-0).
Congrats to my dachshund Lilly for improving to 4-1 on her Thursday night picks. It was truly a great day to be great. MOVING ON.
You want answers? I think Iām entitled to them.
You want answers?! I want the truth!
You canāt handle the ā okay, sorry, got distracted there: Itās Friday, so that means Ian is here with his biggest fantasy-relevant questions ahead of Week 5. Here. We. Go.
š¤ Are we absolutely positive Miles Sanders is the best RB in Carolina?
Sanders (groin) has certainly been playing through some pain this year, but either way, heās clearly been the far less efficient back on the ground compared to Chuba Hubbard through four weeks of action.
Sanders does have the larger sample with 54 carries compared to Hubbardās 26, but still:
- PFF rush grade: Sanders (49.9), Hubbard (80.6)
- Yard per carry: Sanders (2.9), Hubbard (4.6)
- Yards after contact per carry: Sanders (2.1), Hubbard (4)
- Missed tackles forced per carry: Sanders (0.06), Hubbard (0.35)
- Explosive run play rate: Sanders (7.4%), Hubbard (15.4%)
Per Next-Gen Stats, Hubbard (38.5%) has surprisingly had to deal with eight-plus defenders in the box on a far higher rate of carries than Sanders (7.4%).
They also attribute Hubbard (+0.7, 9th-best mark) as having created more rushing yards over expectation than Sanders (-0.83, 8th-worst mark).
Credit to Sanders for averaging slightly higher marks in yards per route run (0.96 vs. 0.93) and yards per reception (5.4 vs. 5.2) compared to Hubbard, but then again, those are hardly game-changing numbers.
A mix of Sandersā injury, game script and poor performance likely led to the ex-Eagles RB posting season-low marks in snap rate (43%), team rush attempt share (46%) and route participation percentage (28%) in Week 4.
Heās more of a meh RB3 than usual despite the bye weeks ahead of Sundayās road matchup against Aidan Hutchinson and company.
š Can Breece Hall get a three-down role already?!?!
First of all: Chill out.
Second of all: Yes. Head Coach Robert Saleh told reporters Wednesday that the team will not be limiting Hallās workload any longer (among some other comments).
This is especially convenient news ahead of a matchup with the Broncosā league-worst defense in pretty much everything ā including fantasy points per game allowed to opposing RBs.
(LeBron voice) Itās about damn time.
Donāt get me wrongā¦Kudos to the Jets for not overly rushing things for their stud 22-year-old back. There was no reason to overly pile on touches in Hallās first four games since returning from 2022ās devastating season-ending knee injury.
The āannoyanceā is more so simply because Hall has been so good with his opportunities early in 2022:
- Yards per carry: 6.5 (No. 1 among 35 RBs with 30-plus carries)
- Yards after contact per carry: 6.2 (No. 1)
- Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.22 (No. 14)
Note that teammate Dalvin Cookās average of 2.5 yards per carry is good for dead last in this sample. Sheesh.
Some have pointed out that Hallās numbers are far worse when removing his season-opening 26- and 83-yard runs from the equation, but Iām not in the business of ātake away a playerās good plays and they are actually badā analysis. There was nothing overly fluky about either of those runs; great players should make these sorts of great plays on occasion.
It was a frustrating September, but at long last, Hall managers: Start your stud RB with confidence this week.
What Other Questions Do Ya Got for Week 5?
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There are quite a few excellent on-paper matchups in Week 5. However, one in particular stands out. The gameās single-best player just seems more dangerous in a dome, while the reigning NFC North champions find themselves at a bit of a crossroads through four weeks of action. Thatās right: Chris is here to break down Chiefs-Vikings.
Weird. Itās the only word I can think of to describe this game.
To explain my confusion, let me rattle off some stats about Patrick Mahomes:
- At 0.16 expected points added (EPA) per dropback (0.16), Mahomes is just ahead of Baker Mayfield. At this point last year, he was first (0.30).
- Mahomes is 21st (no, not a typo) in CPOE. Heās currently behind Justin Fields and Daniel Jones.
In Week 4, he threw more INTs (2) than TDs (1) for the first time since 2021
At the same time, the Vikings look like they used all their luck last season. They have the third-most fumbles of any team (8) but only recovered one. Kirk Cousins has the second-lowest rate of turnover-worthy plays per PFF (1.7%). However, he ranks sixth in total interceptions (4).
If this were 2022, fantasy managers would have this contest circled on their calendars. But after four weeks of play, it doesnāt look as straightforward as we may have thought coming into the season.
š¹ Chiefs Week 5 Outlook
For Kansas City, their funk is likely a confluence of multiple factors. The loss of OC Eric Bienemy has been Washingtonās gain, as the Commanders are at least battling within the NFC East. Travis Kelceās injury and slow start (TE7 behind Hunter Henry) certainly havenāt helped. And Mahomes has to get in sync with yet another batch of new WRs.
In 2022, No. 15 threw a pass to 11 different receivers over the first month of the season. Five of them had double-digit targets. Those same numbers are up to 13 and seven, respectively. Heās throwing to more people more often. However, theyāre not exactly ready for prime time.
Of Mahomesā options with ten or more targets, Rashee Rice (Day 2 rookie pick) stands out. Heās 13th in yards per route run (2.5) with more YAC per reception than CeeDee Lamb. The only problem is he has fewer air yards per target than Allen Robinson. And after Rice, it doesnāt get much better. However, at least Mahomes has a receiving option out of the backfield to keep the offense moving.
Oh, you thought I meant Jerick McKinnon? Not this year.
Isiah Pacheco has solidified his role as the Chiefsā RB1. Clyde Edwards-Helaireās injury throughout most of ā22 (and McKinnonās re-signing with the team) created an ambiguous situation for their rushing attack. But after four games, the seventh-rounder has been the guy.
McKinnon still has his pass-catching role in long down and distance scenarios. Plus, heās split red-zone snaps with Pacheco. But the Rutgersā product has shown enough to keep the primary role, as his angry running style has made him one of the more efficient runners in the league. He ranks in the top 10 for broken tackle and success rate to go with his 8.4% target share. The Vikingsā defensive front has largely kept opposing RBs in check. But letās look at who theyāve played.
- Week 1: Rachaad White, 17-39-0
- Week 2: DāAndre Swift, 28-175-1
- Week 3: Joshua Kelley, 11-12-0 (lol)
- Week 4: Miles Sanders (groin injury), 13-19-0
Obviously, Swiftās performance stands out. However, there are some similarities between the Eaglesā RB and Pacheco. They stack up when looking at adjusted yards after contact per attempt (4.12 to 4.16). Plus, the Chiefsā offense line can generate a similar amount of push to open up lanes (2.2 yards per contact to 1.9). And at RB19 in our ranks, he has the opportunity to exceed that rank in Week 5.
MORE on Fantasy Lifeās matchup of the week
#LOVEHATE is upon us, and Matthew Berry is here to take you through the Week 5 NFL slate!
š¬ Time to PANIC on these Fantasy Football BUSTS? Fear not, Ian has your answers.
š Good news for Mr. Ride or Die. Please be cool, injury Gods.
šæ Full practices are usually a good sign someone is going to play. Get your popcorn ready.
šŗ Everything you need to dominate Week 5. Tips from an all-star cast (and Pro Bowl WR!)
š RIP to a true legend. One of the best linebackers ever.
š Donāt lose faith yet. These two WRs are primed for positive regression.
š¤ It would be GREAT if Breece Hall is truly unleashed in Week 5. That said, you should probably read the full quote.
š¤ Jonathan Taylor had some things to get off his chest. This sounds like someone who is ready to play.
š¤£ Another week, another Fantasy Life punishment. Poor Jonathan.
š Whatās the craziest NFL stat youāve ever seen? This one is wild.
Whatās the only thing more fun than gambling on some football while relaxing on a lovely Sunday afternoon? WINNING your bets on some football while relaxing on a lovely Sunday afternoon. Lucky for you, Geoff is here to help us accomplish this very task.
āļø Moneyline: Jets (+115, BetMGM)
While the Jets are the team coming off a loss, itās also the Jets that feel like they have all the momentum heading into this game coming out of Week 4. Their defense got its swagger back with a three-INT performance, their beleaguered quarterback outplayed the face of the league in primetime, and theyāve just taken the training wheels off their best offensive weapon.
On the flip side, you have a Broncos defense that almost looked worse in Week 4 than they did in Week 3 when they allowed 70 points. Justin Fields ā who entered the game against Denver with a 57% completion percentage ā completed 24 of his first 25 passes and had a career-high four TD passes (heād never thrown for more than 2 in a game) going into the half.
While we can give the Broncos offense some credit (theyāre 13th in overall offensive DVOA), they have not yet faced a defense anywhere near the caliber of the Jets to date.
Finally, there is also the narrative factor in play with HC Sean Payton, who has essentially thrown his entire team under the bus by making this matchup extremely personal for the Jets.
With all these factors in play, itās not shocking that this line has been making a beeline to have the Jets potentially favored by kick-off (it opened at Jets +3.0 but is now at Jets +1.5).
Regardless of how it closes, taking the Jets on the money line down to +100 looks like a solid play, given the direction these two teams are headed.
š Prop: JaāMarr Chase over 78.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
The news from Bengals camp this week has been more positive. Joe Burrow stated that early in the week: āIt's the best I've felt after a game (Tennessee), so I'm optimistic," and there were videos of him moving around a little less gingerly.
A Burrow return to the mean would mean big things for Cincinnati (come off the ledge, Bengals fans) and almost certainly mean better days ahead for WR JaāMarr Chase. Chase, for his part, hasnāt been terrible this year. Heās caught 19 passes on 24 targets over the last two games and was a big reason why the Bengals were able to scrape out a win over the Rams.
Despite the heavy targeting, there is still obvious trepidation with the Bengals in the overall marketplace. Chaseās yardage prop remains under 80.0 yards for Week 5, which is low for a player of his upside and caliber ā especially going into a dome matchup with the Cardinals.
Arizona is now 29th in yards per attempt against and 30th in overall pass DVOA, and are coming off a game where they allowed another premier young receiver in Brandon Aiyuk to post a ridiculous 148 yards on just six catches (24.66 yards per reception).
We have Chase pegged for a big game, with him settling at 96.3 yards for the week in the Fantasy Life aggregate projections. If the Bengals do take off this week, these kinds of totals on Chase will be a thing of the past for the foreseeable future, so buying in on his over has a lot of intrinsic value for Week 5.
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