The NFL never sleeps because sleep is the cousin of death…
In today’s Fantasy Life newsletter:
The Vikings have officially released RB Dalvin Cook
Carolina has a new QB1
Best Ball Draft Phases: What to do in Rounds 1-6
Team Preview: Atlanta Falcons
It’s 6/9. Nice. Take it away, Ian Hartitz…
The much-anticipated Dalvin Cook news is finally here.
Pour one out, Vikings fans.
The Vikings have released Dalvin Cook, per @TomPelissero https://t.co/Od2DE3ImwU
The move seemingly came down to the Vikings’ desire to extend WR Justin Jefferson as well as DL Danielle Hunter.
Even if those deals aren’t overly impactful for 2023, Minnesota is able to roll over money into the next year so their cap space will be higher than expected.
Cook still proved capable of ripping off some big plays in 2022, although his efficiency numbers weren’t exactly flirting with his career-best marks.
Other stats like EPA per rush and success rate paint the picture of a much less efficient back; just realize Cook (28 in August) doesn’t appear to be completely washed.
Earlier this week I broke down Cook’s most fantasy-friendly landing spots, with the Dolphins easily taking the No. 1 ranking thanks to their relatively wide-open backfield inside of the league’s reigning 11th-ranked scoring offense. The Cowboys and Chargers were next up on the list thanks to the potential for Cook to slide in as the offense’s early-down grinder and goal-line hammer.
Of course, there are still 28 other teams out there who could feasibly find a way to acquire Cook’s services.
What follows are some different landing spot superlatives other than raw fantasy upside.
💘 Most heartwarming: Buffalo Bills
A backfield consisting of Dalvin and his brother James Cook would be a pretty fun time for both their family and Bills Mafia.
Fun fact: “Dalvin James Cook” and “James Dalvin Cook” have each other's first names as their respective middle names. Talk about household efficiency.
Neither back would be guaranteed a featured role, and guys like Damien Harris, Nyheim Hines and even Latavius Murray could theoretically mix in.
Still, gotta love that brotherly love.
🤣 Most funny: Seattle Seahawks
Fantasy football managers are already pissed off at Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll.
First, the team decided to spend the 52nd overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft on UCLA RB Zach Charbonnet, signaling that a workhorse role for rising second-year talent Kenneth Walker isn’t on the horizon.
Next, Carroll took time out of his day to hype up … seventh-round pick Kenny McIntosh during a May interview.
Adding Cook to the picture would be incredibly annoying to project in fantasy land but undoubtedly hilarious, given the Seahawks’ unwavering desire to pay a bit too much attention to the position.
😅 Most ironic: Cincinnati Bengals
Cook joined Bengals RB Joe Mixon as the two most-talked-about potential post-June 1 cap casualties throughout the offseason.
Obviously, the release has come to fruition for the former back – but what if the Bengals decided to either replace and/or pair up Mixon with Cook himself?!
Good news for the Bengals’ real-life offense, bad news for fantasy managers, and one helluva ironic situation considering how talked about both players have been this offseason.
🔥 Most low-key fire: Los Angeles Rams
Sean McVay is one of few coaches who have proven willing to leave their lead RB on the field for essentially the whole game over the years.
Also well known for their efficient rushing schemes, the Rams profile as arguably the single-most fantasy-friendly landing spot for Cook … if they can somehow find a way to afford him.
This match is quite unlikely considering the Rams currently have the league’s third-lowest effective cap space, but in the wise words of the late great Chris Farley: You could imagine what it’d be like if they did, right?
It can be daunting to start an 18-round best-ball draft if you haven’t been staying up to date on ADP and positional scarcity. Fantasy Life’s Chris Allen has you covered on what to know during the different phases of a draft.
Live Best Ball Mania IV drafts on Underdog can destroy all sense of strategy. Threading the needle of building a top-notch roster over 18 rounds with 30 seconds to think can seem daunting. Especially when someone takes a player you wanted, or you forget how to use the queue function while talking to a friend.
It happens to the best of us. Or, maybe just me. So, I simplified the draft.
We know the vibe of the draft is changing just by looking at the players available each round. But instead of zooming in on specific names, I broke the 18-round gauntlet into phases. Within each, I used historical data to find trends to build a process to tackle each portion.
🥇 Opening Rounds (1-6)
Generally, ADP acts like bumpers on a bowling lane to control any nervousness of your first pick. Sure, we can debate if Stefon Diggs should be going behind A.J. Brown, but both have weekly top-12 upside. However, the rules of the first six rounds have changed.
Typically, the skill positions got top billing with a quick side-eye to the elite TEs. Regardless, you could see Anchor RB or Zero RB teams brewing after a few picks.
But now, signal callers have entered the early-round chat, with more getting clicked than in years past. But coincidentally, it’s mostly the same guys we’ve been interested in since 2020.
2020: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson
2021: Patrick Mahomes
2022: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen
2023: Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson
Those four make up over half of the overall QB1 finishes during the ’22 regular season alone. All but Lamar averaged over 24 fantasy PPG. But their new price tag begs the question:
❓ Should you follow the market and secure an elite QB?
In short, yes. Granted, it shouldn’t be your only approach to team building. But histograms of past tournaments shed some light on the matter.
In 2021, when the latter half of the early rounds was the haven for QB selections, playoff teams matched the duds in terms of when they would start looking for a passer.
The same was the case the following year despite the cost bump. And their playoff advance rates emphasize the importance of adapting to new trends.
Taking one passer in the early rounds, and having two total by the end of the draft, barely paid off in BBM2 with a 17.0% advance rate.
It all changed in ’22, and more managers reaped the benefits of their aggression.
With other ADP trends allowing you to fill in your other roster spots later, vying for an elite stack early on can be an optimal way to start your draft.
Find out what to do in the rest of the draft here!
🏈 Panthers coach Frank Reich has made a change at QB. The Andy Dalton era is over.
😌 One of the best WRs in all of football is back at practice. Adjust the ranks.
🦶 The Raiders might need to look elsewhere if Jimmy Garoppolo recovers slowly. This free-agent veteran QB is never going away, is he?
🍿 Denver lured a former Chiefs pass-rusher to the squad. Get your revenge game popcorn ready.
🐻 Good news: Bears RB Khalil Herbert got first-team reps in OTA’s. But there is bad news too.
🐬 Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel was asked about Dalvin Cook. He gave a very Mike McDaniel response.
📈 Three future RB risers you need to know about. Pete is on the case.
😮 IG Story Watch. Homecoming szn?
Fantasy Life senior analyst Ian Hartitz is breaking down all 32 NFL teams over the next two months. Let’s take a look at the Falcons, who have a promising group of skill-position talent surrounding their unproven second-year QB…
💪 TEs
Kyle Pitts (Ian’s TE7)
Jonnu Smith (TE44)
On the one hand, Pitts did average 11 expected PPR PPG last season, tied for fifth-highest among all TEs. On the other hand, no TE scored fewer PPR points below expectation than Pitts (-34.5) on the season despite him having only played in 10 games.
Pitts's 411.2 unrealized air yards were also the most for any TE in 2022, as many of his incomplete targets were of the uncatchable variety, which is especially annoying when you consider that Pitts boasts the largest measured wingspan of any NFL TE or WR over the last 20 years.
Minimal scoring upside has been the biggest thorn in Pitts’s fantasy backside. Overall, he ranks dead last in the percentage of PPR points to come from purely TDs (7.1%) among 31 TEs with at least 150 targets since 2020 (and are still in the NFL).
Pitts is still just 22 years old and deserves credit for already having a 1,000-yard season to his name. However, even his 1,000-yard season led to just 10.4 PPR PPG (TE11), and Pitts will still battle Drake London for targets on what was the most run-heavy offense in the league last year.
The silver lining is that TEs do historically have the longest learning curve at the position, so there's plenty of time for Pitts to reach his potential. He also lined up in the slot or out wide on 59% of his snaps last season, while Jonnu Smith had the fourth-most run-blocking snaps at the position back in 2020, so there's little danger of Smith eating into Pitts's routes run.
Unfortunately, Pitts's 21.1 routes run per game last season ranked 29th among 47 qualifying TEs. Although he made up for the lack of routes and targets in efficiency by posting 1.69 YPRR (sixth among TEs) and 26.5% TPRR (first among TEs), it'll still be an uphill battle for Pitts to achieve elite fantasy production without volume.
Ultimately, I can’t get behind firing up Pitts as a top-five TE ahead of other talented options like Darren Waller and Dallas Goedert. The entire case for Pitts this season seems to be built around a “certainty” that things can’t get worse from an accuracy standpoint, but Ridder may not be much of an upgrade over Mariota.
Adjusted completion percentage among 49 qualified QB in 2022 (PFF)
Overall:
Mariota (67.3%, 46th)
Ridder (68.5%, 45th)From clean pockets:
Mariota (72%, 44th)
Ridder (66.5%, 48th)On deep passes (20+ yards)
Mariota (27.1%, 44th)
Ridder (20%, 48th)
In particular, there's simply no reason why Pitts should be going 15 or more spots ahead of Waller in ADP. While Pitts has all the talent in the world, I’ve not made a habit of drafting the 22-year-old TE due to ever-present volume and QB concerns that don’t seem to be on the verge of going away.
Check out the Falcons QB, RB and WR rooms here!
The whooshing sound you hear is 93% of Sleeper managers thrusting Alexander Mattison onto the trade block.
