Just take the best player available (as long as it fills a need)…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:
- Every Day 2 skill position selection — we got you covered!
- QB & RB Recap: WHY PETE CARROLL, WHY!?!?
- WR & TE Recap: Hello, Mr. Mims…
- Draft Grades. Colts & Falcons.
- It's 4/29. Take it away, Dwain McFarland…
Day 2 of the NFL Draft is in the books, and we saw 25 skill position players selected.
Some players improved their stock with higher-than-expected draft capital, while others slipped. Some players landed on depth charts where they can compete right away, while others weren’t so lucky.
Fantasy football goodness happens at the intersection of talent and opportunity, and today we will break down MOST of the QB, RB, WR, and TE selections from the second and third rounds.
😰 Titans | QB – Will Levis | Kentucky | Pick 33
Levis was the odds-on-betting favorite to go No. 4 overall but fell into the early second round. The Titans broke the fall by trading up with the Cardinals for a shot at their QB of the future.
The Kentucky product is known for his arm talent and athleticism, but questions about his decision-making ability exist. Levis struggled against pressure and disguised coverages. PFF passing grades:
For now, Ryan Tannehill remains on the Titans roster and is a threat to restrict Levis to backup duties. If Levis can win the job, Tennessee has some interesting young weapons in Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo. However, we shouldn’t expect a pass-happy approach from the Mike Vrable-lead group.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: Low-end QB2
🤬 Seahawks | RB – Zach Charbonnet | UCLA | Pick 52
Rookie Super Model: 80th percentile
Charbonnet has the size and chops to play an every-down role and was uber-productive in his final season at UCLA, averaging 168 yards per game. His 2.90 adjusted total yards per attempt was the No. 1 best-season total for all the 2023 prospects.
Unfortunately, he joins Kenneth Walker, who the Seahawks selected with the 41st pick in 2022, and we could see a committee.
Backs that grade out in Charbonnet’s range enjoy a strong hit rate, with 40% of prospects delivering at least one top-six finish, but this isn’t an optimal landing spot.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: Mid-range RB4
🦁 Lions | QB – Hendon Hooker | Tennessee | Pick 68
Hooker (recovering from an ACL) will likely begin the season as Jared Goff’s backup but could take over if the Lions struggle. If he gets on the field in 2023, he could be a priority pickup thanks to Detroit's passing-game weapons and Hooker’s running ability. He averaged over 45 yards rushing per game in college.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: Waiver wire watch
➡️ Saints | RB – Kendre Miller | TCU | Pick 71
Rookie Super Model: 71st percentile
Miller offers a nice blend of elusiveness and power that could make him a viable two-down option. However, he was a below-average option in the passing attack for TCU.
The rookie RB will battle Jamaal Williams for early-down work and could share the backfield early in the season if Alvin Kamara is out.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: Stash RB6 (could provide RB3 value early in the season)
🙂 Titans | RB – Tyjae Spears | Tulane | Pick 81
Rookie Super Model: 72nd percentile
Spears posted the third-best yards-after-contact average (4.54) in the class and will now back up Derrick Henry. However, Henry has a lot of mileage, and Spears could be thrust into a heavy workload if the big dog breaks down.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: Stash RB5/6
🤩 Dolphins | RB – Devon Achane | Texans A&M | Pick 84
Rookie Super Model: 74th percentile
Achane fits the explosive archetype the Kyle Shanahan tree loves (i.e., Elijah Mitchell) and could immediately challenge for a large share of the work. Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert currently form a committee, but Mike McDaniel is trying his hand again on a smaller explosive back after striking out on Chase Edmonds.
Achane only weighs 188 pounds, which is why he fell to the third round, but he has instant acceleration and can layer moves together better than most backs in the class. His 20% explosive rush rate (75th percentile) is the second-best, and he is a surprisingly good inside runner, with 3.93 average yards after contact (75th percentile). He can also operate on passing downs.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: Upside RB4
🐆 Jaguars | RB – Tank Bigsby | Auburn | Pick 88
Rookie Super Model: 69th percentile
Bigsby was an average producer in college but flashed elusiveness with his 22% missed tackles forced. In addition, he has good vision and could add value near the goalline.
Travis Etienne is the starter for the Jaguars, but Bigsby could help lighten the load and carries contingency value in the case of an injury.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: Stash RB6
😂 The Panthers’ podium is a bit tall. Lmao.
💯 He always drafts an RB. Always.
😤 Winners & Losers from the first two nights. It’s a mixed bag.
🧐 If you draft Round 2 WRs from Ole Miss… You can’t miss?
🚛 The Russell Wilson haul is complete. All five picks.
😎 The magic of pick 36. Good luck, Rams.
💰 Every fantasy-relevant pick from Round 1. Ian & Dwain have you covered.
👨👦 Joey Porter Jr. is a Steeler. Like father like son.
🤬 Yeah, let’s see what happens. Thanks a lot, Pete.
😁 Lions | TE – Sam LaPorta | Iowa | Pick 34
Rookie Super Model: 74th percentile
LaPorta was a surprise selection at No. 34. However, he popped in the Rookie TE Super Model, and the target-earning machine is the latest TE in a long line of high-end prospects out of Iowa.
The Lions TE depth chart is wide open, so there is a chance LaPorta challenges for the starting role. Tight ends don’t typically do much in their first year, so it is best to manage expectations in 2023.
From a dynasty perspective, LaPorta could develop into a TE1 option – we have seen 44% of the prospects in his range of the Super Model find their way to a top-12 finish.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: Low-end TE2
🤩 Raiders | TE – Michael Mayer | Notre Dame | Pick 35
Rookie Super Model: 84th percentile
When Mayer unexpectedly slid out of the first round, the Raiders made a savvy move by trading up to secure the No. 2 TE prospect in the Rookie Super Model.
The Fighting Irish product doesn’t stretch the seams or create as many explosive plays as Dalton Kincaid, but he earned a starting role as a freshman and delivered 25% and 37% dominator marks in his sophomore and junior seasons.
Mayer will battle Austin Hooper for starting snaps, and he has the talent profile to win the job. Of the prospects that reached the 84th percentile, 100% of them registered a top-12 finish, and 50% reached the top six.
Rookie TEs are problematic, but I prefer taking a swing on a profile like Mayer’s over names like Cole Kmet, Taysom Hill and Juwan Johnson.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: Mid-range TE2 with TE1 upside
🤯 Panthers | WR – Jonathan Mingo | Ole Miss | Pick 39
Rookie Super Model: 69th percentile
Mingo was a late riser in the draft process. He has the size and athleticism that NFL front offices like, and the 2023 class was light on that archetype. Ultimately, most of Mingo’s status in the Super Model is driven by his second-round draft capital because he wasn’t a productive player in college.
His subpar 30th-percentile career yards per team pass attempt can’t all be blamed on a poor offense. His 17% targets per route (TPRR) rank well below the 25% average for future top-24 fantasy producers.
Mingo will battle Adam Thielen, D.J. Chark Jr. and Terrace Marshall Jr. for snaps. None of those are insurmountable barriers, but the hit rate is low for prospects grading in Mingo’s range, with only 16% reaching top-24 status.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: Upside WR6
➡️ Packers | TE – Luke Musgrave | Oregon State | Pick 42
Rookie Super Model: 63rd percentile
Musgrave can stretch the seams of the defense with his 88th-percentile average target depth (12.5). However, he wasn’t a high-end target earner (17% career TPRR) and was below average in explosive plays (20%).
We haven’t seen many TEs in Musgrave’s range put up fantasy numbers, but he can carve out a role on a team without many established options. He will battle Christian Watson and fellow rookies Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft for targets.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: Waiver wire watch
😁 Packers | WR – Jayden Reed | Michigan State | Pick 50
Rookie Super Model: 72nd percentile
Reed is an older prospect at 23, but he broke out with a 34% dominator as an 18-year-old freshman at Western Michigan before transferring to Michigan State. He was a target magnet with shares of 24%, 27% and 24% in three years for the Spartans.
The 5’11” WR proved to be more than a slot option operating outside and earning 29% of his targets on 20-plus yard throws in his final two years. Look for Reed to challenge Romeo Doubs for the No. 2 WR role.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: Upside WR6
🤔 Chiefs | WR – Rashee Rice | SMU | Pick 55
Rookie Super Model: 67th percentile
Rice had a strong final season for the Mustangs with 1,355 yards and 10 receiving touchdowns and offers the type of size (6’1”) that is rare in the 2023 class. However, he was a late bloomer who didn’t break out until his senior season. Historically, WRs grading out similarly to Rice haven’t faired very well in the NFL, with 16% going on to post a top-24 season.
Rice lands in a great situation with the Chiefs, who are unsettled behind Travis Kelce. Kadarius Toney is the likely No. 2 if healthy, but Rice could steal routes from Skyy Moore or Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: Upside WR6/7
🤠 Cowboys | TE – Luke Schoonmaker | Michigan | Pick 58
Rookie Super Model: 60th percentile
Schoonmaker is the second-oldest TE prospect in the class and graded out as average. However, with Dalton Schultz gone via free agency, Schoonmaker will battle Jake Ferguson and Peyton Hendershot for playing time.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: Waiver wire watch
😍 Broncos | WR – Marvin Mims | Oklahoma | Pick 63
Rookie Super Model: 79th percentile
The Broncos might have landed a steal with Mims as the last pick of the second round – he grades out as the No. 4 WR in the Super Model. He can stretch the field vertically (16.7 career aDOT), and his explosive-target rate of 32% ranks in the 83rd percentile. Mims is among only two players to reach a 4.00 YPRR before 19.
Mims joins a fairly crowded Broncos passing room with Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick slotted into starting positions. However, Sean Payton wants to help Russell Wilson play to his strengths, and Mims has some Tyler Lockett to his game on deep crossing routes.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: Upside WR6 (will climb with positive camp)
➡️ Houston | WR – Nathaniel (Tank) Dell | Houston | Pick 69
Rookie Super Model: 65th percentile
Dell was a target monster for the Cougars and registered the No. 1 receiving yards per team pass attempt in the 2023 class – the second-most important data point behind draft capital. His underlying data also suggests he is more than a gadget WR, but he only weighs 165 pounds and rarely faced Power Five competition (47 routes).
The Texans WR room doesn’t have any star power, so Dell will get a shot to garner the affection of C.J. Stroud. Let’s see if he can carve out a significant role in camp.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: Waiver wire watch
🚀 Giants | WR – Jalin Hyatt | Tennessee | Pick 73
Rookie Super Model: 71st percentile
Hyatt was expected to go early in the second round. His 1,085 yards and 13 TDs on plays with over a step of separation ranked No. 1 in the Power Five in 2022, per PFF data. However, Hyatt wasn’t a high-end target earner at Tennessee and was often protected by off-ball alignments that allowed clean releases.
If Hyatt can prove he can win on the outside, he could develop into a solid NFL WR2 and provide spike-week upside. The Giants overperformed at the WR position in 2023, but they don’t have any studs, leaving the door open for Hyatt to carve out a starting role as a rookie.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: Upside WR6
🤔 Browns | WR – Cedric Tillman | Tennessee | Pick 74
Rookie Super Model: 63rd percentile
Tillman has the size NFL teams like and showed an ability to operate downfield with a 74th-percentile aDOT (15.8) and 29% of his targets coming on 20-plus yard throws. But unfortunately, he was a late bloomer and is a five-year prospect, which hurts him in the Super Model.
However, the Browns reportedly want to use more three and four-wide receiver sets to maximize their investment in Deshaun Watson. After Amari Cooper, there are plenty of questions. Donovan Peoples-Jones hasn’t broken out in three seasons, and Elijah Moore had a terrible year two.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: Stash WR7
🐎 Colts | WR – Josh Downs | North Carolina | Pick 79
Rookie Super Model: 69th percentile
Downs was expected to be a high second-round selection but slipped into the third round. While this hurt his standing in the Super Model, he landed on a team where he could immediately challenge for the No. 2 WR role behind Michael Pittman. Downs was a target hog in college with a career 26% share, and no other WR in the class had a more impressive best-season receiving yards per team pass attempt (3.49).
The question is whether he can operate outside in two-WR sets because the Colts could run often with Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor and utilize heavy personnel. Downs played from the slot 89% of his routes at North Carolina.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: Upside WR6/7
🤕 Steelers | TE – Darnell Washington | Georgia | Pick 93
Rookie Super Model: 64th percentile
Washington had first-round buzz a few weeks ago but slipped to the third round due to concerns about his knee.
New #Steelers TE Darnell Washington would have gone much higher than late-third round but "medical zonked him," as one scout said. Knee is a concern, and might not be only one, depending on the team. But as that same scout added, 'It's laughable. He will play a long time."
Washington wasn’t a high-end target earner in college with a 17% TPRR, but his 34% explosive target rate is the best on record. However, he will play behind Pat Freiermuth in Pittsburgh, sapping any 2023 fantasy excitement.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: Free agent
⚒️ 49ers | TE – Cameron Latu | Alabama | Pick 101
Rookie Super Model: 50th percentile
Latu flashed big play ability with his 24% explosive target rate but could never carve out a significant role at Alabama with a career 1.14 YPRR. He will help the 49ers out in heavy sets and backup George Kittle.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: Free agent
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