Tony Pollard's legs have had an eventful offseason...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:
- There's value in the Bucs backfield
- 7 players with awful TD luck
- OverReaction Monday: The newest juggernaut division
- QB Tiers: Ian's rankings for all 38 QBs
- It's 4/3. Take it away, Peter Overzet...
It's perfectly reasonable if you don't want to think about the Tampa Bay Bucs right now.
I'm not sure there has been a single positive piece of news to emerge about the organization since their aging squad failed to make the playoffs in 2022...
- Tom Brady retired for good and now spends his time hanging out with Matthew and a small kitten
- The team fired OC Byron Leftwich
- Leonard Fournette was cut to save $3.5 million in cap space
- The Bucs continue to look us in the eyes with a straight face and tell us Kyle Trask and Baker Mayfield will compete for the starting QB job in 2023
Like I said, it's bleak.
But as fantasy players, we exclusively care about fantasy points and there's a player on the Bucs who is currently getting lost in the shuffle as the Bucs deal with a post-Brady identity crisis.
That would be second year RB, Rachaad White.
White currently sits atop the backfield depth chart with virtually no competition (sorry Chase Edmonds and Ke'Shawn Vaughn). Even more exciting, Bucs head coach Todd Bowles recently had some extremely bullish comments about White:
"We talked about him becoming a more complete back. Taking care of the football, and then with the new offense, I look for him to continue to accelerate and get better in all phases to become a three-down back."
Todd Bowles on Rachaad White
"Three-down back"...three of the most beautiful words in the English language.
Despite all this, White still has an extremely reasonable ADP in Underdog drafts right now:
It's fair to worry about the team bringing in another RB in the NFL draft, but because White can catch passes (he had 109 yards and 9 catches in his one start last year), he is fairly insulated from being completely removed of fantasy relevance.
Other committee backs like James Cook and David Montgomery are going in the same range, so there's very little downside and plenty of upside if Bowles stays true to his word.
And if you need any further convincing, the dude changed his number to #1. Let's ride:
#29 ➡️ #1
@Chaad_1 talks about his past season and the motivation behind his jersey number change
We're humans who play fantasy football, which means we are prone to overreact. Today, Kendall takes a look at a division on the rise...
⁉️ The Newest Juggernaut Division?
Win totals dropped last week for the 2023 season and gave NFL fans a glimpse into what their team’s future might hold.
*Cardinals and Texans fans you may want to look away*
Three teams are tied for the highest projected win total at 11.5 — the Bengals, 49ers and Chiefs. BUT which divisions are looking like the potential newest juggernauts? Let’s start with the AFC East.
These AFC East win totals 👀
The Bills lead the charge here, per usual.
Josh Allen and Co. crashed yet again in the Divisional Round for the second year in a row and are desperate to get over the hump, but it may not be that easy in 2023.
If (hopefully when) the Jets land QB Aaron Rodgers it will completely alter the landscape because, no matter what you think, Rodgers is an obvious upgrade from Mike White and Zach Wilson.
If the Dolphins are able to get a full season from QB Tua Tagovailoa this division will be one to keep an eye on.
Also, if THIS happens? It’s all over.
🏆 BONUS TIME!
Last season the NFC East had three teams advance to the Divisional Round of the playoffs and were arguably one of the toughest divisions, and it’s going to happen again.
Seriously, it was the first time since NFL realignment in 2002 that three teams from the same division made the divisional round. If we walked through each team there’s reason to believe they could run it back. The Eagles lost some key players and coaches, but they still have Jalen Hurts so really there’s no reason to panic. The Giants added and locked in some key weapons for Daniel Jones and the same can be said for the Cowboys.
And don’t worry Commanders fans, there is still some hope (I can’t think of many reasons why right now, but let’s just be optimistic together).
Overall the NFC and AFC East should be some must-watch television this fall. SIGN US UP.
🌶️ A spicy trade rumor. This would be wild.
🤼♂️ How George Kittle spent his Saturday night. Great fit.
🚗 Some trade partners are the actual worst. Don't do this.
🐙 Tony Pollard gets some new ink. He's certainly supporting a local business.
👎 The 2 worst divisions in the NFL. Oof.
🎽 Christian McCaffrey doesn't train like a RB. That's a sprinter.
🍀 The 7 players with awful TD luck. Things should turn around for this Steelers WR.
✈️ The best April Fool's prank we saw. Well played (& sorry, St. Louis).
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What follows is the first edition of Ian's 2023 fantasy football QB tiers. The players are ranked in order inside of the specific tiers; just realize the disparity is far wider between tiers than individual rankings. Current Underdog Fantasy ADP and specific pick numbers are also noted.
As always: It’s a great day to be great.
🏆 Tier 1: HIM (QB1-3)
🦅 QB1: Eagles QB Jalen Hurts
- Underdog ADP: QB3 (21.0)
Hurts has scored an absurd 78 total TDs in 38 career starts. The Eagles combine the league’s best offensive line with a myriad of exceptional pass-catchers in A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert; the 49ers are probably the only other offense with an argument to having a more fantasy-friendly environment.
The fact that the Eagles lost a handful of important defensive pieces in free agency only helps matters considering how many fourth quarters Hurts and company had the privilege of taking off last season.
Ultimately, Hurts’ status as the league’s second-highest volume goal line back (20 carries inside the five-yard line) makes him tough to get out of the No. 1 spot. Nobody had a better top-six finish rate in fantasy last season:
- Hurts (finished as top-six fantasy QB in 80% of 2022 starts)
- Mahomes (71%)
- Allen (69%)
- Burrow (44%)
- Lawrence (41%)
🐃 QB2: Bills QB Josh Allen
- Underdog ADP: QB1 (18.4)
Allen is responsible for two of the last three overall QB1 performances and offers more scoring upside on the ground than anybody other than Hurts.
The latter variable combined with the Bills’ commitment to throwing the piss out of the football on a year-to-year basis gives Allen one of the single-most fantasy-friendly workloads in the NFL: He ranked first in air yards and third in rush attempts at the position last season.
Already one of just seven QBs in NFL history with at least three seasons with 35-plus passing touchdowns, Allen’s lone negative (too many turnovers) is easily made up for by weekly alien-level scoring upside.
🥈 Tier 2: Ceiling is the roof (QB4-7)
⚡ QB6: Chargers QB Justin Herbert
- Underdog ADP: QB7 (53.9)
Herbert’s relatively down 2022 can rather easily be explained away by three key factors:
- Herbert was playing through the pain of fractured ribs starting in Week 2 and also tore his left shoulder labrum. Ouch.
- Top WRs Keenan Allen (missed 7 games) and Mike Williams (5) both missed large chunks of the season. Hell, primary field-stretcher WR Jalen Guyton (14) was done for the season with a torn ACL by Week 3. Herbert posted top-12 fantasy finishes in five of seven games with both of his top-two WRs.
- OC Joe Lombardi basically treated Herbert like late-career Drew Brees when it came to attacking downfield, which is a problem when your franchise QB has an absolute rocket launcher for a right arm. Overall, only Matt Ryan (5.9) and Daniel Jones (5.8) had a lower average target depth than Herbert (6.2) among 38 qualified QBs in 2022.
Good news: The team has a whole offseason to get healthy and Lombardi was replaced by former Cowboys OC Kellen Moore, who helped the Cowboys score more points than anybody other than the Chiefs during his four seasons with Dak Prescott and company. Note that Prescott enjoyed a top-12 aDOT in each of the past two seasons.
I’m fine prioritizing Herbert (fifth all time in fantasy points per game at the position) ahead of Lamar Jackson at the moment thanks to his far clearer 2023 status in terms of, you know, what team he’ll be playing for.
