📦 Down SE7EN Offensive Linemen???

It’s hard to play the game when you’re injured…

In today’s Betting Life Newsletter presented by Unabated:

It’s Sunday morning, so it’s time to survey the NFL’s battlefield and identify the warriors who entered the weekend already severely wounded.

Here are the non-skill injuries that most have my attention as we approach kickoff. (For analysis of the fantasy-relevant players, check out Ian Hartitz’s great Week 4 injury roundup published on Friday.)

🤠 Texans OL Is DEPLETED

• LG Kenyon Green (shoulder, IR)

• C Scott Quessenberry (knee, IR)

• C Juice Scruggs (leg, IR)

• RT Tytus Howard (hand, IR)

• LT Laremy Tunsil (knee, out)

• LG/LT Josh Jones (hand, out)

• C Michael Deiter (chest, questionable)

The Texans entered the season down three OL starters and their top interior OL backup. Amazingly, their situation has significantly worsened in the last month.

Since Week 2, they have been without Tunsil, their three-time Pro Bowl blindside protector. In his absence, Jones — a backup acquired shortly before the season who was forced into the starting LG role in Week 1 — played at LT in Weeks 2-3 … but now he’s out as well.

So, the Texans are currently without their two top options at LT, LG, and C.

On top of that, Deiter (a backup interior OL) looks unlikely to suit up given that he practiced fully on Wednesday, limitedly on Thursday, and not at all on Friday.

In most circumstances, Deiter’s absence wouldn’t matter — and it still probably won’t — but the Texans are already thin on the OL, and without Deiter, they will have even less depth. If they were to suffer another OL injury in Week 4, all of a sudden, his absence would be felt.

All of this information is a preamble to this general question: How will the Texans stop Steelers EDGEs T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith from terrorizing rookie QB C.J. Stroud???

Steelers -3 is one of my Week 4 best bets, which I have logged in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker. I believe the market is not fully pricing in the cluster chaos of the Texans OL.

⚜️ Saints Secondary Is COMPROMISED

• CB Paulson Adebo (hamstring)

• FS Jordan Howden (finger)

The main injury of attention in New Orleans this week has been the one to QB Derek Carr (shoulder, questionable). With the limited practice on Friday, there was reason for skepticism about his availability, but news broke late Saturday night that Carr is expected to start on Sunday.

The injuries that stand out to me more are the two in the secondary.

Remember that starting FS Marcus Maye (suspended) is already out, so the Saints are without him, their No. 3 safety (Howden), and their No. 2 corner (Adebo).

That’s not insurmountable, but it means that they have little room for error against WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. And what happens if No. 1 CB Marshon Lattimore — who has a notorious rivalry with Evans — does something stupid during the game and gets ejected?

I haven’t bet Buccaneers +3.5, but I think there are two ways to approach this game if you’re pessimistic about the Saints’ secondary.

1. Wait, evaluate the secondary during the game, and place an in-game wager if the back five look vulnerable.

2. Place a bet on the Buccaneers’ moneyline (+162 at Caesars) — because if the Saints secondary turns out to be a real problem, then the Bucs could win outright.

I’m still mulling all of this over, to be honest.

🧸 Bears Secondary Is Bad AND Bruised

• CB Kyler Gordon (hand, IR)

• CB Josh Blackwell (hamstring, out)

• FS Eddie Jackson (foot, out)

• CB Jaylon Johnson (hamstring, out)

I have the Bears projected as +2.5 underdogs, and they’re a juiced +3.5 across the market, so there’s some real “mathematical” value on them.

But I haven’t been able to bring myself to bet them. As I noted in the Thursday Betting Life newsletter, I have significantly and negatively changed my assumptions for them, but I’m also slow to move off my preseason priors, and I fear I might still be too high on them.

And the injury situation in their secondary gives me pause: They’re without their No. 1 perimeter corner, their No. 1 safety, their nickel back, and their backup nickel.

If I take a position on the spread, it will be on the Bears — but the injuries in their defensive backfield might be enough to keep me on the sidelines.

Every week, Matthew Freedman writes an article with his top five player props. Here are a couple of his favorites, which you can find (along with lots of other bets) in our 100% FREE bet tracker.

🏹 Patrick Mahomes Over 17.5 Rushing Yards (-110, DraftKings)

This year, Mahomes has run more (5.3 carries per game) — and more efficiently (6.4 yards per carry) — than he has at any other point of his career.

He has a 10% scramble rate and a 6% designed rush rate through three weeks. Last year, those numbers were 7% and 4% (per our Utilization Report).

I’d expect Mahomes to tail off as a runner at some point, but I don’t see why that should be this week.

Mahomes has averaged 20-plus rushing yards per game in each of the past three years, and this season, he is 3-0 on his rushing yardage prop and has gone over 17.5 yards rushing in each game.

• My Projection: 26.3

• Cutoff: 21.5

🔼 Tyler Allgeier Over 8.5 Carries (-115, BetMGM)

I bet the over on Allgeier’s rushing yardage prop last week (41.5), and that didn’t come even close to hitting (he had just 12 yards). Still, I think the thesis for investing in him was generally sound — and even in a highly unfavorable situation (the Falcons lost 20-6 on the road), he still had seven carries.

The Falcons are just three-point underdogs to the Jaguars in London, so I expect them to maintain a balanced offensive approach for much of the game.

In Weeks 1-2, Allgeier had 15 and 16 carries.

• My Projection: 9.8

• Cutoff: 8.5 (-160)

📉 Tyler Conklin Under 28.5 Receiving Yards (-110, bet365)

In his 12 games with QB Zack Wilson, Conklin has averaged 25.8 yards with the Jets. In his eight games without Wilson, he has averaged 39.8.

You might say, “The Jets are big underdogs, so they’re going to have to throw the ball more.” Maybe.

Since joining the Jets, Conklin has been an underdog in 15 games. In those contests, he has gone over 28.5 yards five times.

His prop total of 28.5 is easily his highest mark of the season. It was 21.5 in Weeks 1-2 and 22.5 in Week 3.

• My Projection: 24.4

• Cutoff: 26.5

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Welcome to Week 4 of Bets from the Group Chat. This is where I (Geoff Ulrich) elicit as much information as possible from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their leans for this week. It’s a selfish endeavor, as I’ll be using some of their plays to offset my own losers.

Let’s get to it…

🔺 Logan Thomas Over 2.5 receptions (+105 BetMGM)

On top of getting plus money to take the over on Thomas, the Eagles have been a terrific matchup for opposing TEs. They have good boundary corners that tend to push the action toward the middle of the field, and the TE can also act as an outlet for teams against Philadelphia’s pass rush.

We saw the Commanders pepper Thomas with targets in Week 1 against a surprisingly good Cardinals pass rush in much the same manner. Thomas had a 25% team target share in Week 1 against Arizona (the only full game he’s played thus far) and an 86% catchable target rate (7.0-yard ADOT).

Thus far, Sam Howell has been reluctant (or unable) to throw the ball much downfield to his wide receivers and has directed 31% of his targets to Washington’s TEs. While Thomas may lose a few targets to his backups, at that rate, there should still be enough work for him to go over on this small total.

📶 Milestones and Alternative Lines

With these, we’re looking at players who have big enough upside that if they do go over on their regular totals (O/U), they may end up doing so by a large margin – and cashing these milestones at big odds…

🐻 Roshon Johnson 50+ / 75+ rushing yards (+255 / +1000 DraftKings)

The Johnson breakout is coming. The rookie has been the Bears’ most efficient rusher on the season, averaging 5.29 yards per carry, and has seen his usage rise every week. He’s slowly sneaking up on Khalil Herbert in the early down-carry department.

The Broncos’ struggles at this point on defense are also well-known. They are last in defensive DVOA and allowed a hellacious 8.1 yards per carry against the Dolphins. The Bears have nothing to lose at this point and would likely be well served by giving their rookie more touches.

Everything seems to align here from a usage and matchup standpoint to make Johnson a great alternate/milestones target in Week 4.

🐏 Tutu Atwell 75+ / 100+ receiving yards (+240 / +600 DraftKings)

I’ve written about this spot numerous times already this week. Despite having a great matchup against the Colts secondary (seventh most yards allowed to opposing WRs) and a 14.3 yards per reception mark, Atwell’s O/U totals for Week 4 are far below teammate Puka Nacua.

It's a difference that doesn’t make sense given how good he has been at creating big plays.

Tutu Atwell has 11 receptions gaining 10+ yards this season (3rd in the NFL) 💪

— PFF LA Rams (@PFF_Rams)
Sep 22, 2023

You can take the over on the regular line of 51.5 yards (I did), but if you want to play for the big game, I really like the +240 (75+ yards) and +600 (100+ yards) lines you can find for alternate totals on DraftKings.

The Rams are 6th in pass play percentage, and both teams are top 10 in plays per game. It combines a potentially excellent game environment and longer odds on an undervalued player, making Atwell a fantastic alternate line target for Week 4.

Our friends over at The Hammer Betting Network have been adding their favorite Week 4 bets to our Free Bet Tracker. Bringing you one of the latest from ClevTA…

✌️ Go for the two-point conversion. Maybe the best sports bettor in the world says…

📺 Last minute bets, anyone? We’ve got you covered before kickoff!

📉 We’ve seen some ugly QB play in the NFL. This class has been a massive disappointment.

✍️ Don’t submit your Week 4 picks until you check this out. An optimizer for Survivor picks?!

💰 Penn State stays profitable for the people. This guy isn’t Ben Franklin, but he’s all about those $100 billz.

 🤷‍♂️ I generally use the “Royal We” whenever we talk about things not involving ourselves. Shine sets, Eager spikes.

💪 Once Taylor learns more about how football works, maybe she’ll want to date a QB? Aaron Rodgers has entered the chat.

☝️ This is lowkey maybe the most valuable “tweet” I’ve seen in the past month. What drives NFL scoring expectation?

⏬ How many Sunday Night Football unders is Freedman on? The limit does not exist.

The Week 4 SNF nightcap features an AFC matchup between the Chiefs and Jets, and Matt LaMarca is here to break it down from a betting angle…

Everyone is talking about the Chiefs traveling to New York for a matchup vs. the Jets on Sunday Night Football. Of course, almost none of that attention is on the game itself.

If you’re looking for a Taylor Swift-free preview, you’ve come to the right place.

On paper, this should be an absolute demolition. This is the best quarterback in the NFL taking on the worst, so this has the potential to get really ugly.

That said, games aren’t played on paper.

Can the Jets manage to keep this game competitive? Let’s break down all the betting angles for the Chiefs vs. Jets.

🏈 Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets

• Spread: Chiefs -8.5 (-110; BetMGM)

• Total: 41.5

• Moneylines: Chiefs -405/Jets +320

Let’s start by looking at the spread. This number was initially set at Chiefs -2.5, but that was back when Aaron Rodgers was expected to be under center for the Jets. With Zach Wilson taking over at quarterback, this line shot up as high as 9.5.

Since then, we’ve seen some buyback on the Jets. This line remains at 9.5 at some locations, but it’s down to just 8.5 on BetMGM. That’s due to some sharp activity siding with Gang Green. The public unsurprisingly wants nothing to do with New York, but the Jets have received 36% of the spread dollars on just 18% of the tickets (via the Action Network).

The Jets were expected to have a dominant defense this season, but the downgrade at quarterback has had a ripple effect across the entire roster. They’re dead last in yards per game and points per game, and they’re dead last in EPA/play by a pretty wide margin.

The offense being so terrible means the defense is on the field a lot more often. The Jets’ offense has also frequently gifted opponents with excellent starting field position, putting the defense in a position to fail.

Still, the defense hasn’t exactly held up their end of the bargain. They’re merely 20th in EPA/play, so it’s hard to say that the team’s offense is entirely at fault. Specifically, they’re just 25th in dropback EPA, so they’ve been significantly worse against the pass than they were last season.

That doesn’t bode well for a matchup vs. the Chiefs. Kansas City’s offense wasn’t firing on all cylinders in the first two weeks, but they erupted for 34 first-half points against the Bears in Week 3. They took their foot off the gas in the second half, but they probably could’ve scored 60+ points if they wanted to.

Travis Kelce missed the first week of the season, and his return has had a tremendous impact on the offense. Patrick Mahomes lacks a clear No. 1 option at receiver, so Kelce fills that void at tight end.

Since Kelce has rejoined the fold, the Chiefs are sixth in EPA/play, while Mahomes ranks second in EPA + CPOE composite. Mahomes’ numbers are slightly down compared to his MVP campaign in 2022, but he remains arguably the most talented quarterback in NFL history.

The bigger surprise is how good the Chiefs’ defense has been. They haven’t faced the greatest competition – particularly from the Bears in Week 3 – but they’re fifth in EPA/play allowed. The Jets aren’t going to pose a massive threat against them, so they should continue to find success with Chris Jones back in the picture.

Ultimately, I’m unsure what the sharps see in the Jets. The fact that they’re backing New York makes me slightly hesitant about taking the Chiefs, but this game should not be close.

Kansas City doesn’t have the greatest track record as a huge favorite, going 14-19-1 ATS when favored by more than a touchdown during the Mahomes era. That said, they covered in a nearly identical spot last week, with the only difference being that the game vs. the Bears was at home.

If the Jets fall behind, Wilson has the potential to absolutely implode. If this game stays competitive, the Jets’ offense will play extremely conservatively to try to mitigate mistakes. Either way, it’s hard to imagine them keeping up with Mahomes and company.