Two claps for an electric edition of Thursday night football! 👏👏
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Unabated:
- Dak Prescott and company take down the Seahawks 41-35
- Fantasy questions: Zack Moss and Kyren Williams RB1 szn?
- Matchup of the week: NFC Championship rematch
- A three-time Pro Bowl TE enters free agency
- Best bets: In Mike Tomlin, we trust
- It’s 12/1. Take it away, Ian Hartitz…
Not a single punt occurred last night. Talk about a great Thursday night football game.
Your TNF highlights are presented by that one pair of shoes that are simply more comfortable than anything else you own:
Cowboys QB Dak Prescott put forward another rather spectacular performance, missing the 300 mark by a single yard and tossing three-plus TDs for the fifth time in six games. The scores went to CeeDee Lamb (12-116-1), Jake Ferguson (6-77-1) and Brandin Cooks (4-45-1); it was largely a great day to be great for any fantasy managers who happened to start someone employed by Jerry Jones.
Meanwhile, RB Tony Pollard found the end zone for the third straight game after seemingly being cursed by the TD gods for the rest of eternity. Ultimately, Pollard’s 20-68-1 rushing and 3-15-0 receiving lines demonstrated the reality that even if top-five heights might not be in the fold this year, he continues to warrant every-week starting treatment in non-six-person fantasy leagues.
On the other sideline, Seahawks QB Geno Smith accounted for not one, not two, not three, but four total TDs despite, you know, facing one of the NFL’s best defenses.
The primary winner: DK Metcalf (6-134-3), who made big play after big play on his way to rewarding fantasy managers after a relatively meh first 12 weeks of the season.
And then there was No. 2 RB turned starter Zach Charbonnet, who scored his first career TD and totaled 99 total yards on 20 touches to confirm the reality that even in tough matchups – this rookie warrants near must-start treatment in fantasy land as long as Kenneth Walker (oblique) remains sidelined thanks to the potential for weekly 20-plus touch workloads (even if the matchups continue to be less than ideal).
High-scoring Thursday night football games can REALLY stress a fantasy football manager going into the weekend. The best solution? Control the controllables and focus on the matchups ahead of us. LET'S GET IT.
Week 13 is here. It’s time to either secure your fantasy football playoff spot or die trying: What follows are Ian’s 10 biggest questions ahead of an ever-important week of action that’s poised to force fantasy managers to make some TOUGH decisions with six teams on bye.
As always: It’s a great day to be great.
🗝️ Are Zack Moss and Kyren Williams the skeleton keys needed for your fantasy championship?
It’s looking that way! Jonathan Taylor (thumb) is expected to miss multiple weeks and will undergo surgery, while Williams picked up right where he left off with a position-high 38.5 half-PPR points during the Rams’ demolition over the Cardinals.
Let’s focus on Moss first. Cousin of Santana (and Sinorice), we got a solid four-game sample of Moss functioning as the team’s undisputed No. 1 RB back in Weeks 2 to 5:
That’s RB1-worthy utilization right there, and Moss accordingly turned in three top-10 PPR finishes during this stretch. Credit to the ex-Bills back for ranking inside the position’s top-10 players in missed tackles forced per carry (0.21, tied for No. 8) and yards per carry (4.8, No. 10) – Moss has truly made the most out of his opportunities all season long.
It’s also helped that this offensive environment has been … pretty awesome? Wild but true: The Texans, Colts and Chiefs have all scored exactly 162 points on offense this season.
Up next is a Titans run defense that has usually funneled production to the air in recent years, but that sure wasn’t the case back in Week 5 when Moss torched them for 23-165-2 rushing and 2-30-0 receiving lines. The prized handcuff is locked in as a top-15 option at the position; I would start Moss ahead of guys like Breece Hall and Rhamondre Stevenson, thanks to the reality that the scoring upside in this Gardner Minshew-led attack isn’t nearly as bad as what most RBs with backup QBs under center are being forced to endure.
And then there’s Williams, who actually didn’t have the world’s best utilization in his return from the injured reserve despite the gaudy fantasy numbers. That said: Head coach Sean McVay still found a way to feed the Rams’ lead RB 22 total touches, making it the fourth time in six tries that the 2022 fifth-round pick garnered a touch total starting with the number two since being promoted to starting duties back in Week 2.
Yes, back-to-back tough matchups against the Browns and Ravens aren’t ideal for Williams’ scoring upside. Also, yes, his pass-game work is far too fantasy-friendly to overly worry about a tough on-paper matchup in the run game. The top RBs in PPR points per game from purely receiving production this season are as follows:
- Alvin Kamara (11.9)
- Christian McCaffrey (10.6)
- Austin Ekeler (8)
- Rachaad White (7.8)
- Kyren Williams (7.7)
Look for Williams’ enhanced pass-game role to continue as long as Cooper Kupp (ankle) looks like a shell of himself while playing through the pain; you don’t need two hands to count the number of RBs to start ahead of the Rams’ featured back – and his ranking will go even higher should First-Team All-Universe DE Myles Garrett (shoulder) be unable to suit up.
👀 What DST should you pick up now to THRIVE in the fantasy playoffs?
Four defenses have both a top-10 1.) Easiest schedule in Weeks 15 and 17, and 2.) Ranked unit in “Havoc” which measures how often a defense is creating fantasy-friendly things like pressure, forced fumbles, interceptions, pass deflections and tackles for a loss or no gain happen on a per-play basis:
- 49ers (97% rostered in Yahoo leagues)
- Browns (85%)
- Eagles (73%)
- Jets (75%)
Sadly, these good-in-real-life groups with especially cozy end-of-season schedules are likely unavailable in your leagues at the moment, but keep an eye out for the Eagles potentially becoming available ahead of tough matchups with the 49ers and/or Cowboys prior to their b-e-a-utiful fantasy playoff stretch against the Seahawks, Giants and Cardinals.
The following defenses aren’t nearly as polished as the above group, but they at least aren’t horrible and do possess the sort of end-of-season schedules to potentially boom in a major way when you need it most:
Rams (20% rostered in Yahoo leagues): Close the season with the Commanders and Saints at home before traveling to face the Giants in Week 17 – AKA two of the three most-prone QBs to take sacks in the NFL as well as either Derek Carr or Jameis Winston. The Rams still have a 40% chance of making the playoffs and figure to have a motivated Aaron Donald in these smashable spots.
Texans (12%): Get the Titans in Weeks 15 and 17 as well as the Browns in Week 16. Involved QBs could be Ryan Tannehill, Will Levis, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, P.J. Walker and even Joe Flacco. Still very much fighting for their playoff life, the Texans haven’t been perfect on defense this season, but have proved capable of shutting down bad offenses like the Steelers (6 points allowed), Saints (13), Panthers (15) and Cardinals (16) among others.
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Have you seen this slate? I mean, the week’s best matchup isn’t even close. These squads met in the NFC Championship last year and have been talking smack ever since. Do yourself a favor and make that extra trip to the grocery store NOW to stock up on that popcorn. Presenting Fantasy Life’s Matchup of the Week: 49ers at Eagles, from Chris Allen.
Based on the drama alone, I couldn’t avoid this game as the best matchup on Sunday.
Deebo Samuel thinks James Bradberry is trash. And he had no regrets about the offseason comment.
Philadelphia Eagles? With the fifth-fewest penalties called on them and their opponents having the third-most, more like the Refereagles. (I have no dog in this fight, but that’s a solid burn of a nickname. 10/10).
Regardless, there are too many storylines to count coming into this contest outside of the players jawing at each other. From Philly clinching a playoff spot with a win to the 49ers getting their revenge from last year’s playoff game (and setting the table for a rematch sometime in January), there’s much to discuss. But for our purposes, let’s focus on where the fantasy production will come from both squads.
⚒️ 49ers Week 13 Outlook
For the 49ers, it’s as if those three straight losses didn’t happen. Since their Week 9 bye, they’ve won by more than 10 points in all three games. And while the results have been better, it’s not like the 49ers’ offense has been schematically different.
Brock Purdy’s dropback over expectation (DBOE) rate has fluctuated due to his passing game’s efficiency. His 11.0% CPOE since the bye ranks first among all starters (he’s second zooming out to the full season), and his primary pass-catchers are averaging 6.9 yards after the catch. Pinpoint accuracy and WRs with juice are a lethal combo. But their TE may go overlooked with all of the drama, although his workload says otherwise.
While folks may be debating over Aiyuk and Samuel, George Kittle has been outworking both of them. Since the trio has been healthy and back on the field, the veteran TE has been Purdy’s primary hook-up in almost every scenario.
- Target Share (Weeks 11 and 12): 25.5% (1st)
- TPRR: 25.5% (1st)
- Third/Fourth Down: 20.0% (2nd)
- Red Zone: 27.3% (T-1st)
- Play-Action: 26.7% (T-2nd)
Samuel’s return has widened Kittle’s usage on the field. Per PFF, he played just five snaps lined up wide from the formation. With Deebo back, he’s been on the outside on over 10.0% of his snaps in three straight games. Along with a 20.5% slot rate, the former Iowa TE has been all over the field.
Funny enough, another alum from his college playing the same position put up the most points against the Eagles with a similar route tree.
Hockenson had Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and K.J. Osborn to keep him from having to go to the perimeter often, but the seam balls and short-area crossers cooked the Eagles. And Kittle still has the juice to make it happen regardless of his pre-snap alignment.
With Philadelphia’s interior defense still ceding yardage to inside receivers (allowed 120 yards and a score against Buffalo), Kittle has the opportunity and matchup to put up another TE1 performance in Week 13.
How do the Eagles stack up in Week 13?
#LOVEHATE is upon us, and Matthew Berry is here to take you through the Week 13 NFL slate!
😬 The Texans are hurt, dog. Take my eyes but not his hamstring.
🍿 First Monday night football FLEX ever? First Monday night football FLEX ever.
💎 13 targets last week and still going overlooked? Hidden Gems for Week 13.
🏈 Injuries are never good, but this fantasy RB1 is relatively okay. Hurt, not injured.
🤔 Is there a must-start RB1 in Houston? Ian, Dwain, and Chris have your answers.
🚀 The 49ers passing attack or Creed? Can you take me hiiigherr?…
👀 NFL insider J.J. Watt broke some serious news on Thursday. Who needs a three-time Pro Bowl TE?
🐬 The QB of an elite offense going under the radar? Sign us up.
❓ Bill Belichick has a QB problem on his hands. The answer for Week 13.
📈 This RB has been a low-key STUD in recent weeks. Upside RB2 confirmed.
🎤 Don’t you love it when secret NFL microphones pick up funny conversations? Enjoy.
You know that one bet that you just feel in your core is RIGHT? I mean, we bet all the time, but sometimes you KNOW this one has something special to it. You know?
Well, good news for you: Geoff is here to spread his good word and has some pretty, pretty, pretty good — nay, BEST — bets ahead of Week 13.
👀 Steelers -5.5 (-110, BetMGM)
- Play to: Steelers 5.5 (-120)
Things aren’t looking great for the Arizona Cardinals. Here’s a look at their injury report as of November 29th (WED):
Michael Wilson (shoulder, DNP), Trey McBride (groin, DNP), Marquise Brown (heel, DNP)
S Jalen Thompson (ribs, DNP), CB Antonio Hamilton (groin, DNP), Starling Thomas V (ankle, DNP)
Yikes. That is three top receivers on offense and at least two starters in the secondary (note: Jalen Thompson did practice Thursday).
For Pittsburgh, the news is far better on the injury front as four players missed practice on Wednesday but it was all for rest purposes. They may also get a significant boost this week as S Minkah Fitzpatrick is practicing in full again and looks likely to return.
We like to think of the Steelers as great underdog targets, but they are 2-0 ATS as home favorites this year as well. The move away from Matt Canada opened up the offense last week and likely helps them put away a hurting Cardinals team by multiple scores in Week 13.
📈 Dameon Pierce over 23.5 rushing yards (-110, BetMGM)
- Play to: 27.5
- Projection: 33.6
The Texans were down for most of their game last week against the Jaguars and that means they only handed off the ball 11 times to their RBs. It’s good to have context like this because if you were only looking at Dameon Pierce’s snap count (11) you’d likely be pretty worried about his role going forwards.
Pierce is definitely going to continue splitting snaps with Devin Singletary but the fact he took 42% of the Texans carries last week (on such a low snap count) shows they also clearly want to keep him involved.
Pierce will also be another week removed from an ankle injury and we should expect his efficiency to grow this week and next as he gets healthier. He’ll also face the Broncos who are 31st in success rate against the run and have allowed nine different RBs to rush for over 30 yards against them over their last six games.
This low total looks worth playing to the over for Week 13.
☝️ Samaje Perine over 15.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
- Play to: 16.5
- Projection: 21.1
Let’s stick with this game for another potentially great over target. Broncos RB Samaje Perine has been a great signing thus far, producing 33 catches and 337 yards receiving through just 11 games.
Even though his snap count dipped a bit last week (and he only caught one pass) this is a player whom the Broncos are reliant on in hurry-up situations (93% of the 2-min snaps on season). He’s gone for 16 yards or more receiving in nine of 11 games to date and has seen a targets-per-route run rate of at least 25% in four of his last five games well.
Given the efficiency of the Texans offense and the fact the Broncos are +3.5 underdogs this week, there is a great likelihood we see Perine get more involved as a pass-catcher once again. The over on his 15.5 receiving total grades out as a strong edge in our site projections as well where he’s predicted at 21.1 receiving yards for the week.
