So much for Reddit bro SaleAgreeable2834’s Will Levis source…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Masterworks:
- Catching up on all the first-round madness
- Bijan Robinson RB1 szn
- The fantasy upside of all four first-round WRs
- Previewing the best available players ahead of Round 2
- It’s 4/28. Take it away, Ian Hartitz…
We laughed, we cried, we put mayonnaise in our coffee (OK, that was just Eliot), but most importantly: 31 football players saw their dreams come true on Thursday night. That alone is reason enough to celebrate.
Of course, the national pastime known as fantasy football requires us to immediately analyze every move to figure out what the heck will happen on the field next fall because we are a sick breed of people.
What follows is a breakdown of every fantasy-relevant player drafted in Round 1. Be sure to check out the Friday edition of The Fantasy Life Podcast for more thoughts courtesy of Dwain and yours truly.
🐆 Panthers select Alabama QB Bryce Young (Pick 1.01)
The problem with expecting too much from Young in Year 1 is the porous fantasy track record of first-year signal-callers – especially those without high-end rushing upside.
Overall, just seven rookie QBs have posted top-12 fantasy numbers on a per-game basis over the past 10 years, and six of them averaged at least 25 rushing yards per game in college (Young’s average: 4.8).
Throw in a mediocre group of skill-position players plus PFF’s reigning 15th-ranked offensive line, and it wouldn’t be surprising if Young joins recent No. 1 overall picks Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence as middling year-one fantasy assets.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: Low-end QB2
🥈 Texans select Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud (Pick 1.02)
Stroud finds himself in a rough Day 1 position inside a Texans offense with little proven firepower other than rising second-year RB Dameon Pierce.
Similar to No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young, Stroud simply doesn’t profile as the sort of dual-threat rookie capable of providing a usable rushing floor while developing in the passing game. Overall, Stroud had more rushing yards in his first and last games (82) than the 24 in between (54). The man literally said himself that his job is to throw the ball, not run.
A consensus bottom-five offensive environment without anything close to a consistent rushing floor will likely lead to rough returns for Stroud in fantasy land for 2023.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: Low-end QB2
🐎 Colts select Florida QB Anthony Richardson (Pick 1.04)
Will Levis reportedly earned the stamp of approval from the Manning family, but Richardson ultimately got the nod and will almost assuredly be the Colts’ seventh different Week 1 QB in as many years.
Colts Week 1 starting QBs:
2016: Andrew Luck
2017: Scott Tolzien
2018: Andrew Luck
2019: Jacoby Brissett
2020: Philip Rivers
2021: Carson Wentz
2022: Matt Ryan
2023: Anthony Richardson
Yes, Richardson’s inconsistent and limited collegiate career makes it tough to be overly optimistic about his early-season readiness at the next level. Also, yes, his combination of ridiculous mobility and high-end arm talent will force defenses to account for every square inch of the field for better and worse.
Richardson has the makings of a better fantasy than a real-life signal-caller. It’d be cooler if his top-two pass-game weapons were a bit better than Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce, but beggars can’t be choosers.
Don’t be surprised if the NFL Draft’s No. 4 overall pick climbs his way up the fantasy ranks in a hurry.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: Borderline QB1
🪶 Falcons select Texas RB Bijan Robinson (Pick 1.08)
An absurdly talented prospect with the three-down ability and the sort of high-end draft capital that warrants an immediate workhorse role: Is that something you might be interested in?
First-round RBs aren’t drafted this high to do anything other than handle the rock.
While Robinson might not be in the league’s highest-scoring offense, you might not need more than one hand to count the number of RBs with a larger workload. The below rank is giving some credit to Tyler Allgeier and/or Cordarrelle Patterson for staying involved. Regardless, it’s not crazy to rank the rookie as a top-five option from Day 1.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: Upside RB1
🦁 Lions select Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs (Pick 1.12)
Jahmyr Gibbs profiles as an explosive pass-catching phenom capable of racking up fantasy production “swiftly” (get it?) in full-PPR scoring. But RB was seemingly the least of the Lions’ worries after spending big on David Montgomery this off-season and still having a former second-round pick in D’Andre Swift.
Obviously, Gibbs now profiles as the lead back thanks to this absurd draft capital; just realize the Lions could continue to utilize a three-RB rotation.
A 50/50 split between Montgomery and Gibbs with Swift out of the picture could preserve some semblance of RB2 upside for both; that’s just not the ceiling you’d hope for from the No. 12 overall pick.
This Lions offense remains painfully low on proven pass-catchers outside of the Sun God, so Gibbs could be asked to handle a large receiving role early. He’ll need to do so in order to make up for an expected lack of early-down work.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: Low-end RB2
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🏆 Seahawks select Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Pick 1.20)
JSN’s ability to play on the perimeter and out of the slot sets him up for an immediate Week 1 starting job alongside D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. This should lead to plenty of opportunities: Seattle operated with three WRs on the field on 63.4% of Geno Smith’s dropbacks.
One concern will be once they get into the redzone. Pete Carroll still likes to pound the rock in scoring position (despite, uh, that one time), and Metcalf led the team in looks once they got inside the 20-yard line in 2022.
Smith-Njigba will need to recreate some of his YAC-ability to have top-24 value in 2023 inside of a loaded — yet crowded — Seahawks passing game.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: Low-end WR3
⚡ Chargers select TCU WR Quentin Johnston (Pick 1.21)
The good news: Overall volume won’t be an issue for Johnston as a rookie considering the Chargers were fifth in pass rate over expected in 2022.
The bad news: This passing attack figures to continue flowing through Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler. It’s also not a guarantee ancillary WR Joshua Palmer and TE Gerald Everett completely fall out of the picture.
Johnston’s burst, long speed and borderline erotic YAC ability will give LA a much-needed boost to their passing game; just realize there’s only one football to go around.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: Boom-or-bust WR4
🥵 Ravens select Boston College WR Zay Flowers (Pick 1.22)
Rashod Bateman’s health and early-season availability is still a question. Regardless, the Ravens have hinted at a more aggressive aerial attack in ‘23 with the hiring of offensive coordinator Todd Monken, adding Odell Beckham Jr., and now drafting Zay Flowers.
Here’s to hoping Monken really does open things up: Baltimore WRs rank 31st in expected PPR points per game over the past three seasons.
At a minimum, Flowers should rotate with OBJ and continue to refine his mechanics as a route runner. Temper fantasy expectations given Lamar Jackson’s penchant for running in a TD or two, but expect to see Flowers make a great real-life impact on this offense early and often this season.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: WR5
🦄 Vikings select USC WR Jordan Addison (Pick 1.23)
Addison replaces Adam Thielen and adds to the Vikings’ short and immediate passing game. He immediately slots into three-WR sets alongside Justin Jefferson and K.J. Osborn.
However, Jefferson and Hockenson garnered most of the looks from Kirk Cousins both overall and in key situations last season. Addison will need to quickly gain the trust of the veteran QB to see meaningful targets outside of early downs.
Luckily, the USC product has the skill set to win independent of coverage which should earn him positive marks from Cousins as Addison integrates into the offense.
Similar to our other WRs. Great for the QB and overall offense involved, but there might not be enough volume here for an immediate fantasy boom.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: WR5
🐃 Bills select Utah TE Dalton Kincaid (Pick 1.25)
Josh Allen targeted the TE position at the third-lowest rate in 2022. Even as the team cycled in WRs, Dalton Knox only earned 65 targets on the season.
Of course, Kincaid earned more hype as a pass-catcher and not a blocker, and Allen has already noted he needs to protect himself more as he gets older.
Expect some splash plays — and Kincaid’s athleticism will add a new seam-stretching dimension to this offense — but the history of rookie TEs in fantasy land suggests that Year 1 returns will be no bueno.
Way-too-early 2023 rank: Low-end TE2
🐻 The 32nd pick has technically already been made. People don’t forget!
🟨 The Lions really spent first-round picks on an RB and LB. Vontae Mack no matter what.
📹 The Fantasy Life crew spent four hours hanging during the draft. Replay!
🗺️ Landing spots matter in fantasy football. Tough scene for THE WR1?
♛ Howie Roseman continues to play chess while everyone else plays checkers. The legend grows.
💪 Complete first-round draft tracker with fantasy football analysis. Is that something you might be interested in?
💣 Trade update on a certain stud No. 1 WR. Be a lot cooler if it’s wrong.
👀 Days 2 and 3 of the draft are up next. There are still TONS of great players available.
💨 The fantasy football world moves fast. Too soon?
🦅 Biggest Day 1 winners and losers. Bird teams FTW.
What an electrifying Round 1 of the NFL Draft! But hold on tight, because the adrenaline-fueled action continues with Rounds 2 and 3 tonight with plenty of future fantasy stars set to hear their name called. Here are five things to look out for as the drama continues to unfold. Eliot Crist is here to get you ready for Day 2.
❓ Where do Levis and Hooker go?
Will Levis closed as a -1500 favorite to go in the top five, and according to ESPN analytics, there was just a 0.1% chance he wouldn’t go in Round 1, but he has yet to hear his name called. According to draft odds, his most likely landing spots are the Rams, Titans, and Raiders.
While Hendon Hooker received a lot of pre-draft hype, I am less surprised a 25-year-old developmental QB coming off an ACL tear is sliding down draft boards.
The Vikings, Seahawks, and Commanders are the top teams expected to look his way tonight.
👶 Baby Gronk is still on the board!
Every draft year, there are always a few players who leave us scratching our heads in disbelief that they were not selected in Round 1. And this year, that player is Michael Mayer.
Widely touted as the top tight end prospect, he was expected to be an early pick, yet somehow slipped through the cracks. But fear not, Detroit Lions fans — this could be the chance for the team to redeem themselves and snatch up Mayer with the 35th overall pick to make up for that horrid first round.
💰 A ton of talent at running back
While Bijan Robinson and Jahymir Gibbs were both selected in the top 12, there will be plenty more action.
Tonight, we can expect a flurry of activity with a bevy of talented names with Zach Charbonnet, Devon Achane, Israel Abanikanda, and Roschon Johnson being some of my favorites to look out for.
😎 A big day for receivers
There are still three receivers remaining in Tier Two of the rookie supermodel in Jalin Hyatt, Josh Downs, and Marvin Mims.
Plenty more receivers are expected to hear their names called who can have Year 1 fantasy impacts. A name to look out for tonight is Cedric Tillman, who in 2021 put up 352 yards and two TDs against Georgia and Alabama.
❓ Who will hold their fantasy value?
We saw the likes of Tyler Allgeier, D’Andre Swift, and Dawson Knox get their fantasy value nuked last night. They won’t be the only ones that happen to with plenty more action tonight.
After Round 1, Rachaad White and Rashaad Penny were the biggest winners as their teams were unable to add to the backfield, but that could all change after tonight.
If you don't lustily boo your fantasy commissioner at your live draft, it's an unserious league.
