🦃 Family. Friends. Football.

by Matthew Freedman

11 months ago

‘Tis the season to focus on what’s important: Pie and pigskin…

In today’s Betting Life newsletter, we're asking for your feedback:

Thanksgiving & Black Friday: All the bets…
Single-Game Parlays: A cornucopia of longshots!
Astrological Insights: The LOCK of the century.
Save Your Seasons! Three pro tips.
Quick Hitter: Christian McCaffrey, who else?
It’s 11/23: Take it away, Matthew Freedman…

If you’re coming here for pie rankings — which you clearly are — check out the intro to my Week 12 Freedman’s Favorites. If there’s one thing I’m qualified to talk about, it’s pie.

And maybe pigskin.

For Thanksgiving and Friday, we have four glorious football games, each with favorites of at least seven points (as of Wed. 11/22, 3 pm ET).

Lions -7.5 vs. Packers
Cowboys -12 to -12.5 vs. Commanders
49ers -7 to -7.5 at Seahawks
Dolphins -9.5 to -10 at Jets

Check out the Thanksgiving best bets episode of the Betting Life Podcast, in which Matt LaMarca, Geoff Ulrich, and I break down these four games.

Here’s how I’m approaching each of them, along with my projections.

🦁 Lions -7.5 vs. Packers

Projection: -8

As I mentioned in my Week 12 best bets piece, this is a great game to tease.

In their eight wins this year, the Lions have a +10.1 point differential.

Throughout his Lions tenure, HC Dan Campbell has been a cover machine — a man of the degenerates — and this year he has led the team to a strong 7-3 ATS (33.1% ROI, per Action Network).

His record with the Lions speaks for itself.

With Lions: 30-14 ATS (30.3% ROI)
At Home: 16-6 ATS (39.6% ROI)
In Division: 11-3 ATS (49.7% ROI)
At Home in Division: 6-1 ATS (64.3% ROI)

I doubt we’ll see the spread hit -7 before kickoff, but if it does then I’ll bet it there. If not, it’s bettable as a teaser leg up to -8.5.

🤠 Cowboys -12 to -12.5 vs. Commanders

Projection: -12

I bet this at -9.5 in the lookahead market and logged it in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker — but I wouldn’t bet it now at the current number.

And if this got up to +14 I’d maybe consider the Commanders, who are probably the “sharp side” as double-digit road dogs coming off a loss as big home favorites now facing a team off a blowout victory.

But even at +14, I wouldn’t want to bet Commanders, because this is the typical Dak Prescott smash spot.

At Home: 31-25-1 ATS (7.6% ROI)
As Favorite: 47-34-2 ATS (12.0% ROI)
In Division: 26-11 ATS (37.0% ROI)
As Divisional Home Favorite: 13-4 ATS (50.3% ROI)

I do, though, like under 16.5 carries for RB Tony Pollard (-105, BetMGM). Even though the Cowboys have a league-high +127-point differential, Pollard has gone over this number just twice.

⛏️ 49ers -7 to -7.5 at Seahawks

Projection: -5.6

While my projection leans toward the Seahawks, I bet on the 49ers at -6.5 for two main reasons.

Seahawks QB Geno Smith (elbow) is uncertain with an injury.

I still might be too low on the 49ers.

I have them rated as the No. 1 team (+6.5) — but they’re significantly higher (+9.06) in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings.

In WR Deebo Samuel’s seven full appearances, the 49ers are 7-0 — 5-2 ATS (36.6% ROI) — and have won every game but one by 13-plus points.

As long as the 49ers have all their offensive playmakers, they’re a threat to blow out anyone.

For this game, the bet I might like most is anytime TD for RB Christian McCaffrey (-220, FanDuel). He has scored in nine of 10 games this year, and in his 24 games with the 49ers he has 27 TDs (including playoffs).

This feels like a square bet, but the value’s there: I have this projected just a shade under -300.

🐬 Dolphins -9.5 to -10 at Jets

Projection: -9.8

I bet the Dolphins at -6 on the lookahead but am in line with the current market.

If I were to bet on the spread now, I’d still go Dolphins. This feels like a game in which they go off: As favorites, they’re 5-1 ATS (58.8% ROI).

It’s easy to make fun of benched Jets QB Zach Wilson, but there are worse players in the NFL… and Tim Boyle is one of them. In our ATS QB value chart, Boyle is a -2.3 point downgrade.

And that’s a reason I lean to the under at 41 — my projection is 40.3, and the Jets are 7-3 (34.3% ROI) to the under — but that’s not enough to get me to bet it.

In the prop market, I like under 1.5 receptions for WR Xavier Gipson (+150, bet365). With the over available at -148 (FanDuel), this is a negative-hold market, so the sportsbooks are essentially freerolling a bet… and Gipson has gone over this number just once in his NFL career.

His usage has recently increased — he has a 75% route rate over the past three weeks (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report) — but he’s still just running wind sprints with a 7% target share.

Freedman’s Best Bets!

For everything you need for the Week 12 Thanksgiving slate — including our inactives page — you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.

See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:

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Thanksgiving is one of the best holidays of the year. It’s all about having a full plate, and we’ll have a cornucopia of betting opportunities with three NFL games to choose from.

In the spirit of abundance, Matt LaMarca dives into a same-game parlay for all three contests for those who want to loosen the waistband on their wallets.

🧀 Packers at Lions Same-Game Parlay (+950; BetMGM)

Lions -6.5
Over 46.5
David Montgomery Anytime TD
Jordan Love 250+ passing yards
Love 2+ passing TDs

Let’s keep things relatively simple for our first SGP. After all, this game is merely the appetizer.

I’m going to start by taking the Lions, but I’m going to grab the -6.5 instead of the -7.5. Seven is a key number in NFL betting and I want to protect myself from a late backdoor touchdown from the Packers.

An anytime TD from Montgomery also correlates beautifully with a Lions win. He has eight touchdowns in his seven games this season — all of them Lions’ wins — and the only game he didn’t score in was the game he exited due to injury.

After that, let’s look to the over and Love. If this game does go over, we’re going to need some help from the Packers. Their best chance is with Love, especially with Aaron Jones not expected to suit up.

🔥 Commanders at Cowboys Same-Game Parlay (+1450; BetMGM)

Commanders +14.5
Over 48.5
Sam Howell 3+ touchdown passes
Logan Thomas anytime TD

I’m also going to grab an alternate spread here, pushing the Commanders up from +12.5 to +14.5. That gets us over the key number of 14, giving us some added backdoor opportunities.

Typically, pairing a large underdog with an over isn’t advised. The more points that are scored, the less value that the points towards the spread matter. For example, having 14.5 points in a game where only 30 points are scored is obviously more valuable than if there are 70.

Still, I think it makes sense in this scenario. I don’t see the Commanders defense slowing down Dak Prescott — they couldn’t even slow down Tommy DeVito — so their best chance of covering is a high-scoring matchup. Something like 38-28 or 41-27.

In that scenario, I like most of the scoring to come from the passing game. Howell is quietly tied for seventh in the NFL in touchdown passes, albeit for a team that has yet to go on bye. He’s had at least three touchdown tosses in three of 11 games.

Thomas has also been one of Howell’s favorite targets around the goal line. He has 22% of the team’s endzone targets for the year, tying him with Terry McLaurin for the top mark on the squad. That includes 50% of the team’s endzone targets in Week 11.

🏈 Seahawks at 49ers Same-Game Parlay (+1000; BetMGM)

49ers -13.5
Purdy 2+ touchdown passes
Christian McCaffrey anytime TD
McCaffrey 145+ rushing + receiving yards

I call this SGP the “49ers special.” I have zero clue what to expect from the Seattle offense in this matchup, especially if Drew Lock starts in place of Geno Smith.

I’m taking the 49ers on the alternate spread, bumping them up to -13.5. I’m also going to pair that with 2+ touchdown passes for Purdy and an anytime TD for McCaffrey, both of which seem to happen every single week.

I’ll also add in at least 145 rushing + receiving yards for McCaffrey. He’s one of the most utilized players in the league, and he’s capable of making a huge impact as a runner and a receiver. Instead of picking a lane, let’s get the best of both worlds by targeting the rushing and receiving over.

You Want More Thanksgiving Bets? We’ve got ‘em!

💪 “But he throws INTs!” Maybe this QB’s turnovers aren’t that big of a deal.

🔥 +28.6u in the last 30 days and guess what? It’s all free.

🥧 This Thanksgiving could make history. All the #trendz.

👀 Player prop lines vs projections. These props are POPPING.

📊 Updated objective power ratings: The NFC is at the top!

🌙 New-age analytics: It’s a bad moon for Leos.

🤝 When they score, you score. TD bets to fill your Thanksgiving appetite.

📺 A can’t-miss Thanksgiving appetizer. Everything you need for your Week 12 betting.

💰 A nice reminder: Expected value isn’t the same thing as certainty.

🍻 FREE BEER! I guess Matt Canada was good for something after all.

🤯 Speaking of alcohol… Jim Irsay has some stuff to say… and he actually says it…

Jason Scavone from Unabated highlights three tips to save your NFL season…

We’re heading into Week 12. Maybe you’re doing great. Maybe you’ve been crushing all season. Maybe you’re swimming in it. Maybe you’re the rare beast who’s been beating the toughest markets in sports betting with consistency.

If you are, why are you reading this and flying your rocket car to spend Thanksgiving on your private island?

It’s very hard to beat up NFL full-game sides and totals for large numbers all season long. It’s annoyingly easy to get beat up, though. And if that’s you, here are three tips to save your year over the next seven weeks of the regular season.

🧐 Narrow Your Focus

It’s hard to follow all 32 teams in the NFL. You have to stay on top of all the injuries, all the breaking news, all of Matt Canada’s LinkedIn. There’s no shame in dialing it back the rest of the way.

“If you’ve got action on every game on the side, on the total, on halves and some player props sprinkled in as well, you’re likely trying to do too much,” said Captain Jack Andrews of Unabated Sports. “You’re more likely to miss a key angle or an injury if you’re trying to handicap the entire NFL. If you narrow your focus you can often see things much clearer.”

Try instead focusing on just one division. (It’s more fun if you pick a division with teams that are at least sort of competent at the enterprise of playing football. For that reason we recommend passing on the NFC South.)

If not just one division, look at just the primetime games for the week and whatever local teams you have on the national broadcasts on Sunday. That gives you five games to work with most weeks.

Or dial in on one aspect. Bet only totals, or play only first halves or quarters. When you specialize, you’ll start to see things generalists miss. And gleaning information and analysis everyone else misses is a fantastic way to make money betting sports.

🍎 Take the Low-Hanging Fruit

If you haven’t picked up what we’ve been saying so far, we’ll say it again: NFL full-game sides and totals are some of the hardest markets to beat in sports betting. So if you’re not having success in them, A) there’s no shame in that and B) try doing something easier.

Turn your attention to softer spots. Player props should be your first stop. They’re beatable, they’re everywhere, and books are more tolerant of prop action than they used to be.

“The amount of time necessary to become proficient at beating player props is far less than the time it takes to become proficient at beating NFL sides and totals,” Andrews said.

And always line-shop your props, just like you would for any other bet.

✂️ Cut Out Your Bad Habits

“Bettors love to bet parlays on NFL Sundays. You know who else loves parlays? Sportsbooks. They would love it if their bettors only bet parlays every week,” Andrews said. “Their revenue would be fantastic.”

Unless you know each leg of a parlay has a positive expected value, you’re just compounding the house edge. A typical bet on an NFL side has a 4.5% house edge. Put three of those together and the house has a 12.5% edge on the parlay. It’s a lot to overcome

Also, most people wait until Sunday to get their bets in. But markets always become more efficient the closer a game is to kickoff, because there’s more information available in the ecosystem. Bet earlier in the week to take advantage of less efficient markets and use those sportsbooks known to take sharp action — Circa Sports and others — as your guide.