🏅 Fantasy’s BEST WR Duos

by Ian Hartitz

1 year ago

One day we’ll tell our grandkids about the great Twitter vs. Threads war of 2023…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Masterworks:

What offenses could produce multiple top-24 WRs?
Dwain’s biggest WR values vs. ADP
Bulldog Draft Review: Pete breaks down his process
Dynasty Mailbag: Tony Pollard and Greg Dulcich
It’s 7/7. Take it away, Ian Hartitz…

It’s hard for one offense to enable multiple fantasy-friendly WRs in the same season. Legally speaking, there is only one football to go around on any given play after all.

Historically, 44 offenses have produced multiple top-24 WRs in PPR points per game in the same season since 2013 (4.4 per year). Things have actually been trending even better with at least five-such instances occurring in every season since 2019.

Let's take a look at some of the groups currently within shouting distance of accomplishing this feat in 2023 based on the current average draft position (ADP).

🐅 Cincinnati Bengals

WR1: Ja’Marr Chase (WR2 ADP)
WR2: Tee Higgins (WR14)

This duo is one of just 18 teammates to pull off an even rarer feat of each posting top-12 numbers in the same season (2021) over the past decade.

While Higgins’ WR19 finish didn’t qualify in the upper tier last season, he had three separate injury-induced games produce lowly snap rates of 1%, 16%, and 26%. Excluding those, Higgins averaged a robust 16.5 PPR points per game, which would have been good for WR12 status in 2022.

🐬 Miami Dolphins

WR1: Tyreek Hill (WR4 ADP)
WR2: Jaylen Waddle (WR11)

Hill and Waddle’s combined 49% target share was tied for the third-highest mark between teammates at the position last season.

And why shouldn’t Head Coach Mike McDaniel feature his top-two playmakers as much as possible? They were two of the league’s four most-efficient talents on a per-route basis in 2022 (min. 50 targets):

Hill (3.2 yards per route run)
Justin Jefferson (2.62)
A.J. Brown (2.59)
Waddle (2.59)

🦅 Philadelphia Eagles

WR1: A.J. Brown (WR6 ADP)
WR2: DeVonta Smith (WR13)

This duo ripped off top-14 finishes last year despite typically taking the fourth quarter off. Not bad!

AJB still gets the nod as the No. 1 option, but this is truly a 1.A/1.B situation. Overall, Brown had 167 targets in 20 combined regular season and playoff games, while Smith came in at 158.

💪 Seattle Seahawks

WR1: D.K. Metcalf (WR15 ADP)
WR2: Tyler Lockett (WR34)
WR3: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR32)

The 2013 Broncos (DT, Decker, Walker), 2018 Rams (Kupp, Woods, Cooks) and 2020 Bucs (Godwin, Evans, AB) are the only groups to produce three WR2 finishers in the same season since 2013.

I’m not saying we should crown Geno Smith as Peyton Manning or Tom Brady-level good, but Jared Goff accomplished this too!

We’re telling you there’s a chance.

🐆 Jacksonville Jaguars

WR1: Calvin Ridley (WR16 ADP)
WR2: Christian Kirk (WR27)

Ridley averaged 18.8 PPR points per game the last time we saw him healthy in 2020 – good for WR4 production. He appears to be ready to go ahead of 2023 if his AWESOME piece in The Players Tribune is any indication.

Meanwhile, Kirk set career-high marks in receptions (84), receiving yards (1,108) and receiving TDs (8) in 2022. The Jags’ $72 million man also performed well when it mattered, posting 8-78-1 and 7-52-1 receiving lines in two playoff performances.

⛏️ San Francisco 49ers

WR1: Deebo Samuel (WR17 ADP)
WR2: Brandon Aiyuk (WR28)

Deebo’s electric 2021 campaign produced overall WR3 goodness in PPR points per game, while last year’s WR28 finish can be mostly chalked up to the dynamic talent dealing with hamstring, ankle, and knee injuries throughout the season.

As for Aiyuk: His 2022 route-running mixtape is as good as anyone out there. The man seriously has a Davante Adams vibe to his game.

If only this crowded passing game didn’t also have Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle to feed as well.

⚡ Los Angeles Chargers

WR1: Keenan Allen (WR19 ADP)
WR2: Mike Williams (WR25)

Allen and Williams have played 33 games together with Herbert also under center. Their per-game production in these contests is as follows:

Williams: 6.9 targets, 4.2 receptions-61.9 yards-0.4 TD, 12.8 PPR points

Allen: 10.2 targets, 7.2 receptions-76.1 yards-0.4 TD, 17.4 PPR points

Of course, Father Time could produce a changing of the guard at some point. Allen turns 31 in April; there have only been 14 instances of a 30-plus-year-old WR turning in top-12 fantasy production over the past decade.

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Pete recently completed a slow draft (don’t tell anyone) in Underdog Fantasy’s high-stakes best ball contest, The Bulldog. Today he’ll walk through his decision-making process at each point in the draft and explain both his individual player selections and overall team structure.

One of the tough pills to swallow when chasing top prizes in the large-field best ball contests is the reality of how hard it will be to get a team to the finals.

Earlier this summer I crunched the sobering numbers on this dynamic. The TLDR: If you were to max enter Best Ball Mania IV (150 entries) and you were a drafter with average skill, you’d have roughly a 10% chance of getting one team to the 441-person finals.

Don’t get me wrong–I’m still chasing these top prizes–but I also want a chance to realize my edge faster in smaller contests. That’s where contests like The Bulldog come into play:

The Bulldog details:

$500 entry
432 total entries (36 drafts)
$30,000 to first (Top 144 get paid)
Smaller playoff groups:
Round 1 (Weeks 1-14): 12-person groups (Top 4 advance)
Round 2 (Week 15): 6-person groups (Top 2 advance)
Round 3 (Week 16): 6-person groups (Top 1 advances)
Round 4 (Week 17): 8-person final group

In addition to a much smaller field, these higher stakes contests give me a chance to draft off stream. For some reason, I decided it was a good idea to stream all 150 of my Best Ball Mania IV drafts, where viewers can gleefully snipe me on stacks and steal all of my favorite targets.

But in the comfy confines of The Bulldog? I was safe to build specifically around my preferred structures and player targets. The end result is a Zero RB monster loaded at WR with an elite QB that also takes advantage of all the current late-round TE value.

Let’s dig in to see how it unfolded. We were drafting from the nine slot…

⚠️ Rounds 1-3: Avoid the avalanche

The WR landscape on Underdog is unlike anything we’ve ever seen before, as Dwain recently outlined here. In my drafts, I work under the default assumption that WRs will fly off the shelves until proven otherwise.

I elected to start this draft with CeeDee Lamb and see what the room gave me coming back. If Austin Ekeler or Bijan Robinson would have fallen, I would have scooped up the RB value but ended up selecting the top receiver on the board in Jaylen Waddle at pick 16.

One reason I like to prioritize double-tapping WRs when you select at the end of the first round is that sometimes extreme RB values will fall to you in the late third. I’ve had drafts where I was able to select Breece Hall and Josh Jacobs at the 3-4 turn because the WR thirst was so strong.

This almost came to fruition here, with Hall going one pick before me, but instead, I settled for my favorite WR in this range, Deebo Samuel.

↩️ Rounds 4-5: Time for two detours

One simple rule I’ve used to help navigate the WR Avalanche meta on Underdog this summer is to take a maximum of two detours away from WR in the first seven rounds. There are, of course, exceptions to every rule, but this tends to work well in an environment where WRs with legitimate upside evaporate by pick 84.

In the early fourth round here, I saw a perfect opportunity to take a detour for a QB, with Lamar Jackson falling 7 spots past ADP. I find the WRs in Rounds 4-7 to all exist in a very similar tier, so Jackson stood out as a strong selection here. I also am light on Jackson in BBM4–something I discussed with Jonathan recently–so getting a share in a higher-stakes tournament helps me correct that oversight from a portfolio standpoint.

In the 5th round, I grabbed another ADP faller in Kenneth Walker at pick 57. Walker and Zach Charbonnet are both strong selections in tournaments, but I think the market has course-corrected on Walker’s price too much.

There’s no reason he shouldn’t be at least a 4th-round selection along with guys like Najee Harris and Travis Etienne. This selection at this price gives me the flexibility to treat Walker like an Anchor RB or a luxury Zero RB back.

See how Peter finished his draft

😍 Don’t hate the player, hate the ADP. Dwain LOVES these WR ADPs.

🤓 Underdog’s Weekly Winner contest is very unique. Hayden is here with some helpful tips.

✈️ An outraged airplane lady insisted some dude was not real. Basically how I feel when looking at the Titans’ backup WRs.

🏈 This new QB-WR duo continues to put the work in. Adjust the ranks.

👀 The 2022 New England offense wasn’t a sight for sore eyes. New year, new Patriots?

📺 It’s not a Friday without a best ball draft. Join Ian & Justin TODAY.

🕺 Tennessee’s rising second-year TE is a popular late-round pick. Are you getting Chiggy with it?

Welcome to a new segment called Dynasty Mailbag! The goal is to bring you thoughts, insight, and research on the most current dynasty topics in the industry. Curious about submitting a question or topic suggestion? Sam has you covered from here.

👀 Tony Pollard SZN

“Pollard…Do you believe in him this season or does the injury/new OC hinder your expectations?”

Tony Pollard has been a bit of an enigma for fantasy managers. We’ve seen flashes of massive upside when given the chance, but he’s been buried behind Ezekiel Elliot his entire career.

With Zeke officially out of town (for now) and a wasteland of a depth chart behind him, I am wheels up for Pollard this season.

He’s our consensus RB7 at Fantasy Life, and he possesses the coveted blend of rushing and receiving that truly separates the elite tailbacks from the field. Pollard has increased his rushing attempts, targets, receptions, and receiving yards in four straight seasons. He capped it off by finishing as the RB8 in PPR formats last year before suffering a high-ankle sprain and fractured fibula in the postseason.

He appears set to be ready for training camp so there should be no concern about his availability for Week 1.

Earlier this offseason head coach Mike McCarthy said:

“Kellen (Moore) wants to light the scoreboard up, but I want him to run the damn ball so I can rest my defense…I don’t desire to be the No. 1 offense in the league. I want to be the No. 1 team in the league with the number of wins and a championship. And if we’ve got to give up some production and take care of the ball a little better to get that, then that’s what we’ll do because we have a really good defense.”

Referencing now-Chargers offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, McCarthy clearly wants to “establish it” this season and Pollard figures to be the primary beneficiary.

🗺️ Streaming TEs

“Thoughts on Greg D breaking out in Denver as a top ten TE?”

As a rookie, Greg Dulcich appeared in just 10 games and posted a line of 33-411-2 on 55 targets. Despite the small-ish sample size, we did see exciting flashes of upside. Six of his 33 receptions went for 20+ yards and three went for 30+ yards. He also finished with seven-plus PPR points in seven games so there was at least a semblance of consistency.

Sean Payton was brought in to turn the ship (and Russell Wilson) around, and history is on his side. Payton also seems impressed with Dulcich and word has gotten out that, “Payton plans to use Dulcich in a joker role, lining him up at multiple spots to create mismatches.”

Ian Hartitz did note that “Dulcich was the third-worst run-blocking TE in 2022 per PFF, so he doesn’t necessarily profile as an every-down option even if he leads all Denver TEs in targets and receiving stats”. So tossing a bit of cold water on the narrative isn’t unreasonable.

A top-10 finish is certainly plausible given he’s our consensus TE14. However, as Ian mentioned in his Broncos Team Preview, I prefer even later-round options (Gerald Everett) if that’s the route my roster build goes.

Ian Hartitz