In todayās Fantasy Life newsletter presented by Apollo:
2022ās best small-sample performances
Saquon Barkley isnāt happy
The BEST Fantasy Matchups to Target
Team preview: Jacksonville Jaguars
Itās 6/13. Take it away, Ian Hartitzā¦
Every offseason free agent signing and draft pick is great ā¦ until they arenāt.
Late-round fantasy player x will definitely break out this year ā¦ until they donāt.
Small-sample-size excellence is a sign of things to come ā¦ until itās not.
The latter glass-half-full off-season phenomenon can sometimes help predict the future, and other times cause us to make some terrible fantasy decisions.
Look no further than the following statements ā which are technically true ā, but the small-sample sizes attached to the performances are serious causes for concern when projecting into 2023 and beyond.
šØ Saints WR Rashid Shaheed and Panthers WR Laviska Shenault are two of the NFLās most efficient WRs
The following list denotes the NFLās most-efficient WRs in yards per route run with a minimum target threshold of just 30 in 2022 (PFF):
Both WRs are receiving QB upgrades ahead of 2023; maybe they keep on keeping on with larger workloads.
In the meantime, we probably (read: definitely!) wonāt be including the 24-year-old talents in the positionās top-five discussions despite their efficient campaigns in 2022.
š² Eagles RB Rashaad Penny and Jets RB Breece Hall are the NFLās two most efficient RBs
Their ranks among 67 RBs with at least a whopping 50 rush attempts last season:
šŖ Titans TE Chigoziem Okonkwo is the gameās most efficient TE
Okonkwo only played more than half of the offenseās snaps on just two occasions last season, but he worked as one of the leagueās most-efficient TEs in just about any metric:
PFF receiving grade: 84.6 (No. 2 among 47 qualified TE)
Yards per route run: 2.61 (No. 1)
Yards per reception: 14 (No. 1)
Yards after the catch per reception: 7.8 (tied for No. 2)
Hell, the man even had a package of plays where he lined up at RB.
Of course, it remains to be seen if Okonkwoās rookie-year success is a sign that heāll join the positionās elite in fantasy land, or if heās simply the 2023 version of Albert O.
š Chiefs WR Kadarius Toney is a target hog No. 1 WR
The ex-Giants WR debuted for the Chiefs in Week 9 last season. All he did the rest of the way was demand a target on a whopping 29.4% of his routes ā the highest mark among any WR with at least ā¦ 25 targets between Week 9 and the Super Bowl.
Fantasy Life senior analyst Ian Hartitz is breaking down all 32 NFL teams over the next two months. Letās take a look at the Jaguars, who profile as an ascending offense after adding a true No. 1 WR to an already solid groupā¦
Eight total TDs, 686 pass yards, and 76 points in a two-week stretch against the Titans and Cowboys demonstrated the upside of the offense.
Four TDs in 25 minutes of game time helped lead the Jaguars to their biggest comeback in team history during their wild (lol) Wild Card win over the Chargers.
Seriously: The 2021 NFL Draftās No. 1 overall pick flashed every bit of the āgenerationalā talent he was promised to possess throughout 2022.
The results were predictably a fun time in fantasy land when everything was going right, as only Jalen Hurts (80%), Patrick Mahomes (71%), Josh Allen (69%), and Joe Burrow (44%) finished as a top-six fantasy QB in a higher percentage of their starts than Lawrence (41%).
Still, Lawrence did finish as just the QB11 in fantasy points per game behind guys with lower ADP like Tua Tagovailoa, Daniel Jones, and Geno Smith. The highs were a helluva drug, but he did register eight games that produced under 250 passing yards and one or fewer passing TD ā including four of his last five games of the season (including playoffs).
The Jaguars just added a legit No. 1 WR in Calvin Ridley and T-Law is 23 years old entering his second season in Doug Pedersonās system: The future is incredibly bright and itād make a lot of sense if things are even better in 2023 ā just realize this wasnāt a no-doubt top-10 QB in 2022.
PFF passing grade: 73.1 (No. 15 among 48 qualified QB)
Completion percentage over expected (CPOE): +1.4% (No. 12)
EPA per dropback: +0.16 (No. 9)
Passer rating: 95.2 (No. 10)
Yards per attempt: 7 (No. 22)
Adjusted completion rate: 77.7% (No. 8)
Big-time throw rate: 4.6% (No. 13)
Turnover-worthy play rate: 3% (No. 19)
Currently priced as the QB8 over at Underdog Fantasy, Lawrence (pick 64) is far closer overall to Joe Burrow (45) and Justin Herbert (54) than the aforementioned Tagovailoa (99), Jones (110) and Smith (115). This is asking a lot out of the third-year signal-caller, who is also being drafted with plenty of talented RBs, WRs and TEs still on the board.
Ultimately, Iām in line with Lawrenceās positional ADP, but havenāt gone out of my way to overly draft him in best ball land unless Calvin Ridley and/or Christian Kirk are already on the squad.
I wonāt be surprised if the rising third-year signal-callerās numbers threaten the positionās top-five QBs this time next year, but the gap between the positionās mid- and low-end QB1s is generally just a bit too wide for my liking.
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