Who will be the first to crack the streak of longshot winners to start the PGA season?
In today’s Betting Life Newsletter presented by Underdog Fantasy:
NBA Best Bets: Top options for Wednesday’s 13-game slate.
Fields → Steelers? Something is afoot.
If you're not first, you're last. Daytona 500 best bets.
Genesis Invitational Best Bets: Will Tony Finau break through?
It’s 2/14. Take it away, Matt LaMarca…
There are just two more slates before the NBA All-Star Break, and Wednesday is packed to the gills. There are 13 games to choose from, so nearly every team in the league will be in action.
That gives us lots of opportunities to look for value in the betting market.
Let’s dive into two of my favorite options for Wednesday’s massive slate:
✨ Magic (-3.5) vs. Knicks (-110, Caesars)
The Magic are on the second leg of a back-to-back after losing to the Thunder on Tuesday, but they still have a pretty massive edge in this matchup from a health perspective. Julius Randle, OG Anunoby, and Mitch Robinson will all remain out of the lineup, while Isaiah Hartenstein and Donte DiVincenzo are questionable.
The Knicks were initially able to survive some of their injuries, but they’ve dropped four of their past five games. Their only win over that stretch was against the Grizzlies, who were in even worse injury shape.
DiVincenzo has done some heavy lifting for this squad of late, averaging 40.4 minutes and 26.5 points over his past eight games. If he’s forced to sit out on Wednesday, it’s going to leave a huge hole in their rotation.
Meanwhile, the Magic are basically at full strength at the moment. Markelle Fultz could rest on the second leg of a back-to-back, but that’s really their only concern.
Orlando has come back to reality after an elite start to the year, but they should be able to take care of business in this spot.
🧙♂️ Wizards (+12.0) at Pelicans (-102, DraftKings)
The Pelicans are in the midst of one of their best stretches this season, winning six of their past seven games. That said, they haven’t run the toughest gauntlet. Their only quality win in that span was against the Clippers, with the others coming against the Rockets, Spurs, Raptors, Blazers, and Grizzlies.
The Wizards are not a huge step up in competition, but they’ve played tough recently. Their last four losses were all by eight points or less, and they came against the Cavaliers, Celtics, 76ers, and Mavericks.
If they can hang with those squads, I see no reason why they can’t do it again on Wednesday. The fact that Zion Williamson is questionable is an added bonus.
MORE NBA bets for Wednesday’s MONSTER slate!
⚾ Pitchers and Catchers Are Reporting Soon!
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🏀 26 teams in action on Wednesday. Best bets for a massive slate.
🧑🏫 Knowing your history helps. Winner trends for the Genesis Invitational.
🏠 The house never loses. Nevada sportsbooks turn a profit once again during Super Bowl 58.
🏗 Justin Fields to the Steelers? The betting market seems to think so.
🏆 The ball is in Patrick’s court. One Super Bowl win in the next seven seasons puts him on pace to top the GOAT.
🧐 Too low? Too high? … or Just right? This QB now sits as the favorite to go No. 3 overall.
🏒 How do you like them apples? Connor McDavid had an epic night on Tuesday.
🚗 If you’re not first, you’re last. An expert breaks down how to make money during the Daytona 500.
The NFL season is officially behind us, but the action doesn’t stop at Betting Life. Geoff Ulrich is here to break down this week’s Genesis Invitational…
The Genesis Invitational has a long history on the PGA TOUR and was first played in 1926 as the Los Angeles Open. Since 1999, it’s been played at Riviera Country Club, which has turned into one of the preeminent courses on the PGA TOUR and remains one of the best setups we see all season (outside of the majors).
The field this year is also the smallest we’ve ever seen at Riviera. Around 70 golfers will tee it up this week (the top 50 from last year’s FedEx Cup standings plus a bunch of other earned exemption spots), with the top 50 players and ties making the weekend. There is also a rule that anyone within 10 strokes of the lead after the second round will get to play the weekend, so the majority of the field will get in four rounds of play.
💰 Genesis Best Bets
🏌️♂️ Cameron Young (bet365)
Each-Way Top 5 (+4000)
Top 10 (+430)
Top 20 (+125)
In 2022, Young burst on the scene with a second-place finish at this event, shooting 62 in the second round and nearly tying the course record of 61. He gained 9.9 strokes ball-striking alone that week and over 5.0 strokes on the greens. Young also has excellent results at multiple venues with solid correlation to Riveria, including a T7 at Augusta from last season and a second-place finish at the 2022 Wells Fargo (played at TPC Potomac).
This year, Young’s form is again on the uptick. His T8 in Phoenix last week saw him gain 4.0 strokes off the tee and go positive with his putter (+5.2 strokes) and iron play. While it’s concerning that his iron play has dipped over the past year, the +1.5 strokes gained on approach at the more pinpoint TPC Scottsdale setup was his best on the PGA since last June.
Given the confidence he’s shown on this course already — and the fact he’s available at longer odds than he was here last season (he was anywhere from +3300 to +2500 in 2023) — Young finally looks like he may have drifted into a decent value range for betting. Given his top-10 and top-five hit rate on the PGA (eight top fives and 13 top 10s since 2022), I like laddering him up from the top-20 market this week.
️⛳️ Tony Finau (FanDuel)
To Win (+3500)
Top 10 (+280)
Finau has made mincemeat of these longer technical layouts more often than not. His resume reads as follows: Five finishes of T6 or better at Torrey Pines; three top 10s at Augusta; T2 Colonial; T5 Copperhead; T2 Silverado; two T2 finishes at Riviera.
While it’s shocking that he hasn’t won at any of these aforementioned venues yet, it’s important to remember that his win rate has risen as he’s matured. Four of Finau’s six career wins have come over the past 20 months, and at least one of those wins (2022 in Houston) came at a course in Memorial Park Golf Course (a longer par 70) that compares well to Riviera in difficulty.
Finau has also shown us that he may be ready to add to that career total soon. He’s played a handful of events this season and gained 7.0 strokes on approach at the Farmers three weeks ago (T6) and 6.8 strokes ball-striking at Pebble Beach (T37). While his putting remains a weekly concern, he’s shown the ability to flip that club in an instant and has encouragingly gained over 2.0 strokes putting at Riviera in three of his past five visits to the course.
When it comes down to it, few players at this price range (+3000 or bigger) can dial up the ball-striking to the levels needed to dominate at Riviera the way Finau can. And with the past two winners of this event having gained over 9.0 strokes on approach, his course history and price look too good to pass up this week.
🤼 Genesis Matchup Bets
📈 Collin Morikawa Over Max Homa (-110, DraftKings)
With a win and a T5 over his past four PGA starts, Morikawa trumps Homa in short-form results and stats. Homa (the 2021 Riviera champ) comes in struggling with form, having lost strokes on approach in three straight starts.
🤔 Patrick Cantlay Over Viktor Hovland (+100, DraftKings)
While the long-term upside of Hovland is immense, he’s yet to find his groove in 2024, losing multiple strokes on approach in his first two PGA starts. Cantlay can be frustrating in majors but rarely disappoints at Riviera, where he’s finished T17 or better in five of his past six starts.
More Best Bets for the Genesis Invitational
