Is the griddy still cool if Kirk Cousins does it?
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Underdog Fantasy:
GREAT health updates on Breece Hall and Javonte Williams
Legal news on Bengals RB Joe Mixon
Best Ball Roundtable: The Fantasy Life crew’s favorite stacks
10 BOLD calls for the 2023 season
It’s 8/18. Take it away, Ian Hartitz…
Two of the biggest offseason injury storylines revolved around just how soon rising second-year Jets RB Breece Hall and third-year Broncos RB Javonte Williams would be able to return from their respective 2022 season-ending knee injuries.
Good news for both: Week 1 seems like a VERY real possibility, if not an expectation at this point:
Hall managed to get some full 11-on-11 practice work in before newly-signed Dalvin Cook (shoulder surgery). He looked good!
New Broncos Head Coach Sean Payton confirmed that Williams will play 10 to 12 snaps in the team’s second preseason game.
Hall’s RB1 upside certainly took a hit after the Jets signed Cook to a one-year deal worth up to $8 million. But make no mistake about it: Hall is more than capable of making the absolute most out of his opportunities if back to 100%.
Seriously, there would be an argument for Hall as a top-five overall pick if he was 100% healthy with no risk of limited touches. He was that good as a rookie:
Yards per carry: 5.8 (No. 1 among 55 RBs with 75+ carries in 2022)
Yard after contact per carry: 4.1 (No. 1)
Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.2 (No. 22)
Explosive runs (10+) per carry: 0.19 (No. 1)
Yards per route run: 2.0 (No. 2)
Vegas game total projections paint the Jets as (unsurprisingly) one of the league’s most-improved scoring offenses ahead of 2023 – I’m happy to take the four- and maybe even five-round discount on one of the game’s best young players at the position — don’t be surprised if Hall takes over this backfield sooner rather than later once he’s fully back to 100% health.
And then there’s Williams, whose recovery is absolutely wild, considering he ALSO tore his LCL and PCL in addition to the ACL.
Like Hall, Williams has already emerged as one of the position’s brightest young stars thanks to his status as a borderline wrecking ball with the football in his hands.
Overall, nobody has averaged a higher rate of missed tackles forced than Williams (0.32) among 71 RBs with at least 100 carries over the past two seasons, while his average of 3.4 yards after contact per carry ranks a stellar 11th among the same sample.
Also, like Hall, the Broncos paid a decent dollar to bring in a clear-cut complementary back this offseason in the form of Samaje Perine.
While Perine hasn’t demonstrated the same sort of upside as Williams during his career, college football’s record-holder for most rushing yards in a single game did prove capable of posting big-time fantasy production while handling a near-every-down role in the absence of Joe Mixon last season.
Week 11: 11-30-0 rushing, 4-52-3 receiving, 70% snaps
Week 12: 17-58-1, 4-35-0, 80%
Week 13: 21-106-0, 6-49-0, 83%
Sean Payton is already on the record about his preference for using two RBs.
It’s likely, if not inevitable that the newly signed Perine is also heavily involved in this offense: Payton has NEVER fed an RB 250-plus carries in a single season during his time as head coach.
Here’s to hoping Williams is able to put his best foot forward sooner rather than later in 2023, as it’s still tough to completely assume he’s operating at 100% full health, given the complicated nature of his injury. It’d make sense if he’s more of the 1B in this two-back committee early in 2023.
I’m walking, not running, to draft the talented lead Broncos RB at his RB23, pick 76.8 price tag.
The Fantasy Life staff loves themselves some best ball. You draft and … that’s it! Seriously, name a better annual pastime during the Summer months. We’ll wait!
While disciples of Professor Pete are well aware of just how important correlation and stacking are over at Underdog Fantasy (promo code LIFE for a 100% match up to $100!), different people have different ideas about what specific players and stacks will wind up as the most profitable in 2023.
We’ve published our most-rostered players already, but haven’t quite peeled back the curtain behind our respective stacking strategies.
So what better way to find out the Fantasy Life staff’s favorite stacking principles than by engaging in a best ball roundtable? As always: It’s a great day to be great.
🏈 What is your highest-owned team stack so far?
My biggest stack position is Geno Smith (16%) to Jaxon Smith-Njigba (20%).
I think the market is still somehow undervaluing JSN’s insane prospect profile. He’s going to be the alpha on this team by the end of the year. If that thesis is true, stacking him with Smith (who is always available in the 9th and 10th rounds) gives me tournament-winning upside in the playoff weeks.
For me, it’s Justin Herbert (19%) and Quentin Johnston (42%). I love the upside of this Chargers’ passing attack under new OC Kellen Moore and how these two may gel in it from a skillset perspective.
Herbert also still feels like the best discount among the top eight quarterbacks, as he can be had in the mid-fourth round — yet is second in betting odds to lead the league in passing yards.
My highest-owned stack is the late-round pairing of Jordan Love (15%) and Jayden Reed (22%). I think the ceiling of this Packers’ offense is being underestimated, and these two players, in particular, have been too cheap all summer. Love is certainly a risky pick, but with an ADP of 160, I find it hard to pass on him that late.
With Reed and Luke Musgrave going after him, it’s also easy to get a back door stack when needed. Add in the fact that Green Bay faces what looks like an incredibly soft group of defenses in Weeks 15-17 (vs Tampa Bay, @Carolina, and @Minnesota), and I don’t see any reason to back off the Packers stacks.
Russell Wilson (11%) and Tim Patrick (20%) *breaks out into tears*. Luckily, I still have plenty of exposure to Marvin Mims (18%) and Jerry Jeudy (15%), so the ole bank account won’t be looking too bleak if Broncos country does decide to start riding this season.
The decision to embrace this group comes from the reality that no offense is expected to make a bigger leap in scoring than the Broncos when it comes to their game-by-game Vegas totals, and accordingly, Russ is being priced far closer to his floor than ceiling.
The ex-Seahawks’ signal-caller flashed at the end of the season with three top-five fantasy finishes in his final four starts; I’m buying into the idea that longtime offensive mastermind Sean Payton gets far more out of this group in 2023.
I can’t stop drafting Deshaun Watson (17%) and Elijah Moore (21%). Watson is my favorite bet to post a top-five season while offering a price tag in Round 7 or later – which could be a massive win given how early QBs are going in 2023.
Moore was an absolute bust in Year 2, but I just can’t get those three top-10 finishes over his final seven games as a rookie out of my head. Of course, when drafting from a late position, they also offer a fun game stack with Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall.
My biggest stack right now is Kirk Cousins (40%) and Jordan Addison (20%). The Vikings finished sixth in pass rate over expectation (PROE), Cousins was the QB7 last year, and now he has an ADP of QB13. And Addison, who had the 11th-best YPRR amongst college WRs in ‘22, already projects as the intermediate YAC threat the Vikings needed opposite Justin Jefferson.
Plus, as I’ve leaned on WR-heavy builds, I typically draft Addison as my fourth WR to take advantage of his growth throughout his rookie season.
🐬 Scary moment for the Dolphins’ stud LT. Thankfully nothing too serious!
📿 Kirk Cousins caught a TD in practice. You need to see this celebration.
🏃♂️ Tired: Training camp highlights mean nothing. Wired: Breece is looking FAST.
👀 Who doesn’t love cheap upside? 3 late-round WRs worth a click.
✍️ BIG legal update for this reigning fantasy RB1. Sure seems like good news!
😔 The Colts lose one of their complementary WRs for the season. Pain.
💰 15 games of preseason action on tap. Everything you need to know.
🎯 A late-round dart with the potential to boom into low-end TE1 territory. Is that something you might be interested in?
🤯 Fantasy Life’s Punishment Generator has some doozies. 24 hours of WHAT?!
😱 Babe, wake up, Shannon Sharpe has a new job. These debates are going to get WILD.
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It’s a great day to break down Ian’s 10 bold calls for the 2023 season – with an emphasis on bold.
Would I bet my life on any of these? Hell no, but I do have a level of conviction with each that has made a serious impact on my draft strategy throughout the offseason.
💨 Colts Rookie QB Anthony Richardson sets NFL record for rush attempts by a QB in a single season
There have been just four instances of a QB racking up 150-plus carries in a single season:
2019 Lamar Jackson (176)
2022 Jalen Hurts (165)
2022 Justin Fields (160)
2020 Jackson (159)
Note that Colts Head Coach Shane Steichen helped enable the second qualifier on the above list. While the 2022 Eagles actually ranked 10th in pass rate over expected (blow-out-induced game-script caused them to run so much), the 2021 squad ranked 30th and really became a run-first squad (46.8% pass-play rate!) after their season got off to a disappointing 2-5 start.
Enter Richardson.
He scored a perfect 10 RAS (relative athletic score) after showing up to the combine at 6’4, 244 lbs. The Florida product posted a more than stellar 103-654-9 rushing line in 12 college games last season, proving capable of being able to take the rock to the house by himself from pretty much anywhere on the field.
Week 1 of the preseason was a good snapshot of what we should expect to see from this group. Overall, the Colts’ utilized an RPO on 42.6% of their snaps – the highest mark in the NFL by a whopping 16.7% (PFF).
High-volume rushing QBs really don’t bust in fantasy football land:
Fantasy points *per game* rank from every QB with 100+ carries in a season since 2000.
This is an Anthony Richardson tweet.
Richardson profiles as this year’s late-round darling at the position who performs far better in fantasy than real life – don’t be surprised if we see some GAUDY rushing numbers to make up for likely growing pains as a passer.
👀 Patriots WR DeVante Parker parties like it’s 2019 and posts five top-12 fantasy finishes
The crowded nature of this passing game has depressed the ADP of everyone involved. Luckily, training camp intel has provided some recent clarity:
"There are 4 pass-catcher who are essentially guaranteed starting roles in the Patriots’ offense: running back Rhamondre Stevenson, wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and DeVante Parker and tight end Hunter Henry."
@Underdog ADPs
Parker: WR81
Henry: TE32
Reminder: The Patriots gave Parker a new three-year contract worth up to $33 million in late June. There is only $14 million guaranteed, but at a minimum, that’s enough money to more or less cement his spot in starting three-WR sets.
Parker flashed some patented grown-man catches throughout 2022 while posting 5-156-0 and 6-79-2 blowup performances. It’s not a complete given he works ahead of JuJu Smith-Schuster in Mac Jones’ pecking order, but his terribly low ADP makes this a reasonable bet.
The 30-year-old veteran has been dubbed a fantasy football sleeper for what seems like 50 straight offseasons; just realize Parker carries one of the better target projections for any WR priced outside of fantasy’s top 150 picks.
Plus, if Offensive Coordinator Bill O’Brien proves that last year’s troubles were simply a result of the Matt Patricia experience? Expect Parker to be a major beneficiary of the turnaround.
8 more BOLD predictions for 2023!
Jonathan Taylor leaving the Colts facility
