Name a better way to wrap up 2023 than by winning a fantasy championship. We’ll wait…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:
- Christmas Day upsets and fantasy takeaways
- Week 16 Wrap-Up: Justin Jefferson is BACK.
- Utilization Report: A late-season upgrade to WR1.
- QUICK HITTER: A Rookie RB cracks the position’s top-5.
- A Christmas miracle: You need to see this parlay
- Waiver Wire Report: One. More. Week.
- It’s 12/26. Take it away, Ian Hartitz…
Monday’s NFL triple-header produced blood, sweat and tears for players and invested viewers alike. That’s simply life when there are fantasy championships and last-place punishments on the line.
A quick recap of all the action that took place on Christmas:
😯 Time to panic, Kansas City
The lasting image of the Raiders’ 20-14 victory over the Chiefs might have been Taylor Swift comforting Brittany Mahomes, but let’s be honest: Raiders CB Jack Jones provided the highlight of the day by snatching a pick-six before taunting a young Chiefs fan with the football.
Okay fine: Jones clarified afterward that he was just trying to stop an adult from taking the ball away; either way, the Raiders were happy to play the role of the Grinch all afternoon:
- Maxx Crosby and company generally made life a living hell for Patrick Mahomes, scoring twice in seven seconds (!) and sacking Mahomes four times. Overall, the reigning league MVP wound up sprinting for more yards than he did back in his Super Bowl loss vs. the Bucs.
- Raiders RB Zamir White (22-145-0 rushing) turned in his second solid performance in as many weeks with Josh Jacobs (illness, quad) once again sidelined. White has posted elite 70% and 81% snap rates in these two games; he’ll be a volume-based RB2 start against the Colts in Week 17 if Jacobs is unable to suit up.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire suddenly profiles as the Chiefs’ undisputed lead back after Jerick McKinnon (groin) was placed on the injured reserve list before the game and Isiah Pacheco (concussion) was knocked out during the loss. CEH would be a mid-to-low-end RB2 for next Sunday’s theoretical home smash spot against the Bengals.
Don’t expect the Raiders to win too many more games when their QB does not complete a single pass during the final three-quarters of action; just realize interim head coach Antonio Pierce is doing a helluva job and has certainly earned strong consideration for the full-time gig.
🦅 Death, taxes, Jalen Hurts putting up big-time fantasy numbers
Overall, the Eagles’ $255 million man threw for 301 yards and a score while also adding a stellar 8-34-1 rushing line. Hurts also managed to get each of A.J. Brown (6-80-0), DeVonta Smith (4-79-1), and Dallas Goedert (7-71-0) involved; this was largely the most complete offensive performance we’ve seen from this group since their victory over the Bills back in Week 12.
- Additional kudos to D’Andre Swift (20-92-1 rushing), who was one measly yard away from adding another TD to his total.
- Swift now joins Austin Ekeler and Joe Mixon with a league-high six instances in which they were downed at the one-yard line and did NOT score on the same drive. As a wise man once said: Sheesh.
- The Giants made a brief second-half comeback behind stellar performances from Saquon Barkley (23-80-1) and even Darius Slayton (3-90-1) after turning the show over to Tyrod Taylor.
The decision to bench Tommy DeVito was likely met with hostility in more than a few Italian-American households, but look at the bright side Giants fans – at least you guys didn’t let Boston Scott score a TD for once!
🤔 La-MVP?
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson certainly made a strong case to bring home his second most-valuable-player award with 252 yards and a pair of scores through the air to go along with 45 scoreless yards on the ground.
And to think the Ravens were literally never approached about potentially acquiring his services this past offseason. Interesting!
The only other big boom on the Ravens side of the ball in fantasy land was rookie WR Zay Flowers (9-72-1) putting forward another solid PPR-induced performance.
Otherwise, this was more so a performance surrounding what went wrong for the 49ers. Don’t get it twisted: The usual suspects like George Kittle (7-126-0), Brandon Aiyuk (6-113-0) and Christian McCaffrey (14-103-1 rushing, 6-28-0 receiving) all managed to give one last Christmas present to their managers, but good God Brock Purdy had a rough day at the office on his way to tossing not one, not two, not three, but FOUR interceptions throughout the game.
Oh well, everyone has a bad game every now and then. Purdy should be back to balling for Week 17’s smash spot against the Commanders … or will he?
A stinger briefly sidelined Purdy, but backup QB Sam Darnold remained in the game alongside the rest of the starters even after the former MVP front-runner had been cleared to return.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan explained Purdy didn’t return because of that singer, “but believes he’ll bounce back next week.” Either way: There’s a new betting favorite for MVP.
Peter is here to share his six big takeaways from Week 16. Take it away, Pete...
When it comes to the top performers in Week 16, there’s Amari Cooper and then everyone else. We spotlighted the nuclear Cooper (and Joe Flacco) game in yesterday’s newsletter, so today we’ll give some shine to the other guys who helped propel teams to the championship round…
🔪 Breece Hall dices up the Commanders
Breece Hall was one of the more polarizing selections in 2023 drafts. No one could question the talent, but there were health risks at play and concerns about a split workload with Dalvin Cook.
And then things got even more tricky when Aaron Rodgers went down in Week 1 and the entire offense has sputtered since.
But for one magical week, Hall delivered on his immense upside with 191 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs (you need to check this one out) vs. a hapless Washington squad.
🤝 The Lions dynamic duo gets it done
The Lions captured their first divisional title since 1993 on Sunday, in large part due to the efforts of their rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs and star wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Gibbs was juking defenders out of their shoes and stiff-arming them into the ground on his way to 100 yards and 2 TDs.
St. Brown carved up the Vikings’ defense all day as well, racking up 12 receptions for 106 yards and 1 TD.
You picked a good “ride or die” this year, Matthew.
🧨 Justin Jefferson is back in a big way
There have been lots of false starts to Justin Jefferson’s 2023 fantasy season, but he stepped up in a big way for fantasy managers in Week 16.
He stuffed the box score with 6 receptions, 141 yards and 1 TD, but it was this nutty catch that definitely proved he’s fully back.
🦈 Week 16 was Chark Week
The early theme to Week 16 was WRs who did very little throughout the season popping off for big games (George Pickens, Tee Higgins, Gabe Davis, etc.).
The Panthers WR joined the parade on Sunday, as well, hauling in 6 catches for 98 yards and 2TDs, including this beauty.
You know you had a good day when even Skip Bayless is impressed.
💪 Mike Evans & CeeDee Lamb always deliver
It’s fun to highlight the surprise performances, but we need to always give our flowers to the fantasy stars who did it week in and week out this year, which was the case yet again for Mike Evans and CeeDee Lamb.
Lamb (6-116-1) took a legit leap this year from great to superstar, while Evans (7-86-2) is well on his way to the Hall of Fame as a model of consistency.
🍑 A record-breaking tush push
The Eagles offense has sputtered this year, but if there’s been one constant it's Jalen Hurts getting his tush pushed into the endzone.
He did it again yesterday, and also threw for 301 yards and a TD. He even went full Houdini on one play, as he helped the Eagles escape Christmas with a narrow victory over the Giants.
I should mention that Hurts did finally share a TD with D’Andre Swift, who found a way past the electric fence at the goal line.
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“Fantasy football usage moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.” - Dwain McFarland
1️⃣ Amari Cooper looks like a WR1 with Joe Flacco under center.
Cooper has WR17, WR14 and WR1 finishes in three healthy starts with Flacco and has an average of 28.7 points after a 49.5-point eruption in Week 16 against the Texans. While we know the veteran can’t keep that pace, Cooper has historically been a high-end WR2 talent who can drop big totals when a passing game gets hot.
Flacco is sun-running, averaging 330 yards and 2.5 TDs in four starts, and Cooper has a 29% target share and 48% air yards share in his three full games with the veteran QB.
With Flacco at the helm, the Browns have shifted from a run-first team to a pass-heavy unit with a 7% DBOE, dropping back to pass on 66% of their plays. The Browns led by four-plus points on 95% of plays in Week 16, yet they remained faithful to the passing attack with a 5% DBOE.
Can Flacco keep throwing for 300-plus yards per contest? That seems like a stretch, but at this point, it is hard to doubt he represents an enormous upgrade for a unit that recently considered 200 yards passing a good day.
Outlook: Cooper UPGRADES to low-end WR1 status.
2️⃣ What is going on with Stefon Diggs?
Over the last six games, Diggs has averaged a lowly 9.2 fantasy points with finishes of WR46, WR46, WR13, WR45, WR36 and WR38.
Yikes.
That is some very out-of-character stuff, causing some to wonder if 30-year-old WR is slipping. However, his underlying utilization tells a very different story, with a top-notch 30% target share.
The bigger story is that the Bills have shown a willingness to abandon their pass-heavy ways when necessary over the second half of the season. Since Week 10, they have a minus-4% DBOE and have reached minus-10% or lower in three of the last four games. However, they also have a 10% DBOE outing in that stretch, indicating they are willing to adapt their game plan based on the opponent.
The Bills have a 51% dropback rate over the last five games, which has lowered the ceiling on Diggs targets. Over that stretch, he averages 8.2 targets per game, down from 10.6 over the first nine games when the Bills had a 6% DBOE.
While this change adds variance to the weekly equation for Diggs, we should also still see pass-heavy outings, and the veteran remains the clear-cut No. 1 in an offense with Josh Allen at the helm. Don’t overthink this one. The floor is lower, but the talent and ceiling remain sky-high.
Outlook: Diggs is a low-end WR1 but continues to offer WR1 overall upside in the right matchups and is due for a bounce-back outing.
Dive into ALL of the Week 16 data!
It’s Tuesday, which means it’s officially Week 17. To welcome in the new week of Fantasy Football, Matthew Freedman was up at the crack of dawn to make sure his rankings were ready for you before your morning coffee. Check out his full Week 17 rankings set here!
🎅 Fantasy Life’s eliminator league claims another victim. Matt blames Santa.
💰 Turning a $5 parlay into $490,000 sounds like a pretty fun time. Merry Christmas dude!
👀 Draft season? Over? Never! How to dominate playoff best ball.
🏀 The greatest return on investment in the history of mankind. Yup, makes sense.
🐬 Not-so-good injury update for this stud Dolphins receiver. Take my eyes but not his ankle.
🐶 Corgi races should be a staple of NFL halftime shows. Pure electricity from start to finish.
🐻 Updated NFL Draft order features plenty of QB-needy teams in the top-five picks. Get your popcorn ready.
📊 ICYMI: Early Week 17 rankings are LIVE. Who’s up and who’s down for championship week.
🏥 One of the NFL’s true ironmen is dealing with a sprained right shoulder. His Week 17 status remains uncertain.
If you’re reading this, there’s a good chance you made it to the fantasy championship this weekend. 1. Congrats! 2. Time to lock in.
And what better way to lock in than with the best waiver wire adds of the week? Take it away, Chris…
One. More. Week.
This is it.
Everything comes down to Week 17. Offseason content pivoted around this particular set of games. With best-ball tournaments ending this week, the potential matchups and the players you needed were a part of almost every article during the summer. But, of course, in redraft, we couldn’t draft with Week 17 in mind. Luckily, the chaos of the season gives us another chance to get in on the action.
So, first off, congrats on getting to championship week. I got a few waiver pickups to help push you over the finish line.
Looking for recommended FAAB budgeting and even more Waiver Wire analysis? Head to our Waiver Hub to get all of that and more, for FREE!
✍️ QB: Derek Carr, Saints
Garbage points count, too!
The Saints entered the fourth quarter down 20 points against the Rams last week. Derek Carr had barely crossed 200 passing yards and had a meager 10.5 fantasy points. In the final 15 minutes of play, he more than doubled his score. Regardless, his pass rate was up relative to his last three games with
back in the lineup. Plus, Carr threw for the most air yards in a single game (378) since Week 6.
Tampa Bay’s secondary has allowed 300 passing yards or multiple passing scores in three straight games. Despite this game being a divisional rematch, if we like his receivers, we should like Carr against this defense.
✍️ RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs
The team placed Isiah Pacheco in the concussion protocol in the third quarter of their loss against the Raiders. In his absence, Clyde Edwards-Helaire took the RB1 role in his place. In theory, this sounds great if you can pick up CEH. However, the Chiefs were at their worst efficiency-wise since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starter on Christmas day. Edwards-Helaire’s rushing success rate was 0%. While it was great to see the former first-rounder earn a 20% target share in their comeback effort, his pass-game usage only emphasizes how little the KC WRs are winning downfield.
However, with all that said, facing the Bengals couldn’t be a better way for the Chiefs to get back on track. After allowing the Vikings and Steelers to gain over 100 yards on the ground, any piece of the KC rushing attack should be on rosters for Week 17.
✍️ WR: K.J. Osborn, Vikings
On the bright side, Kevin O’Connell (for good or for bad) is still letting Nick Mullens sling it. Despite throwing four interceptions, the Vikings had a 5.7% pass rate over expectation. Mullens’s turnovers make him tough to trust in the most important week of the season. But we’ll take his pass-catchers.
Jordan Addison’s ankle injury and the team quickly ruling out T.J. Hockenson leaves the squad short-handed. Without both on the field, it was Osbon who regained his WR2 role opposite Jefferson with a 23.7% air-yard share (second on the team) and four targets. With a matchup against the Packers, who’ve now allowed 300-yard passing games to their opponents in back-to-back games, Osborn becomes a potential WR2 for Week 17.
MORE Week 17 Waiver Wire Targets!
