It's always a good time to think about the future — futures bets, that is…
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by the Fantasy Life Prop Finder:
- Futures Bets: Ravens & Rams, still.
- Player Props! CMC … and a kicker?
- Power Rank: Ed continues to crush.
- A Group Chat Parlay: +529, for the degens.
- SNF: Packers. Vikings. Playoffs???
- It’s 12/31: Take it away, Matthew Freedman…
Our friends at Unabated have an NFL Season Simulator that allows users to upload data, play out 10,000 seasons, and compare the results to the betting market.
It’s Sat. 12/30 at 8 am ET, and I just uploaded my power ratings, home-field advantage values, and QB ATS values and ran an Unabated simulation.
Based on the results, here are two future bets that catch my eye.
🏆 Ravens to Win Super Bowl
- Best Line: +500 (FanDuel)
- Unabated Projection: +364
In the Week 14 Sunday Betting Life Newsletter, I highlighted the Ravens at +700, but there’s still some value in the current market.
The Ravens are the No. 2 team in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings (+9.72). They have the No. 2 defense in EPA (-0.131, per RBs Don’t Matter), and QB Lamar Jackson is the current MVP frontrunner (-175, PointsBet).
I have the Ravens projected for a league-high 13.4 wins and the No. 1 seed in the AFC, which gives them a good shot to reach the Super Bowl.
🐏 Rams to Win NFC
- Best Line: +3000 (DraftKings)
- Unabated Projection: +2258
I’ve been talking about this bet for months. In the offseason, I logged in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker a position on the Rams to win the NFC at +4500.
I highlighted them at +5000 in the Week 14 Sunday newsletter. And Kevin Cole and I discussed their playoff potential in the Week 16 “Bigger Picture” episode of the Betting Life Show.
This number has gotten shorter since then, but it’s still bettable.
Since the return of RB Kyren Williams in Week 12, the Rams have averaged 32.4 points and scored at least 28 points in all five games — despite playing the Browns, Ravens, and Saints in that span.
They have a legitimate top-five offense anchored by QB Matthew Stafford and WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua (0.158 EPA, No. 2 since Week 12), and their defense, led by Hall-of-Fame DT Aaron Donald, is respectably mediocre (-0.016 EPA, No. 18).
Given their divisional familiarity with the 49ers and HC Sean McVay’s work history with 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan, the Rams might have a puncher’s chance of knocking their rivals out of the playoffs.
Rams -5.5 at Giants is one of my favorite Week 17 bets.
For everything you need for Week 17 — including our inactives page, which will update shortly after 11:30 am ET with all of the relevant status updates — you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.
See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:
Every week, Matthew Freedman writes an article with five of his favorite player props. Here are a couple of them, which you can find (along with lots of other bets) in our 100% FREE bet tracker.
🧨 Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD (-320, FanDuel)
- My Projection: -969.5
- Cutoff: -500
Yet once more, I’m a CMC ATD investor. I have been for months now.
The TD markets tend to be overly juiced, but McCaffrey offers value every week.
At -320, McCaffrey has an implied probability of 76.2% to score a TD in this game, and that number is high … but I have his true probability at 90.6% (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator).
On its face, it’s ridiculous to project any NFL player to have a 90.6% chance of scoring a TD. That said, McCaffrey leads the league with 21 TDs and 57 red zone carries. (He also has 14 red zone targets).
He has scored in 13 of 15 games (86.7%), and the 49ers have a league-high 31-point implied team total this week, based on their betting lines.
The Commanders have allowed RBs to score 17 TDs in 15 games, and I expect the 49ers to feature McCaffrey heavily in a bounceback game for the team.
He’s one of my Week 17 fantasy favorites, and I even like the idea of betting on McCaffrey to score multiple TDs, which he has done five times this year.
🦶 Lucas Havrisik Over 1.5 FGs (-115, BetMGM)
- My Projection: 2.1
- Cutoff: -140
Have I mentioned that I spent a significant chunk of my Christmas “leisure” time this past weekend researching FG production and building a kicking model?
I’m a normal person, I promise.
Anyway, I don’t know how to even pronounce this guy’s last name, but I bet the over on his FG prop last week on TNF, and he delivered: Three FGs — and he could’ve had five if not for a missed 47-yard attempt and an uncharacteristic decision by HC Sean McVay to go for it on 4th-and-goal from the two-yard line.
So I’m betting on him again, and if he delivers I’m prepared to try to learn his surname.
For the year, the Rams are No. 1 in the league with 2.9 FG attempts per game. No other team is close. (The Seahawks are No. 2 at 2.5, and the league average is 2.0.)
Even with his subpar 75% conversion rate, Havrisik has a good chance to go over 1.5 FGs if he gets two attempts — and he has had at least two attempts in seven of eight games.
This bet feels like a total smash … if you’re the kind of sicko who bets on kicker props.
SEE THE REST OF FREEDMAN’S PROPS!
Ed Feng is the proprietor of The Power Rank. This season, he’s 44-27 (+27.4 units) on INT Props. Here’s one of his INT bets for Week 17.
⬆️ Geno Smith Over 0.5 INTs (+114, DraftKings)
The average NFL QB will have an INT rate of 2.3% and throw 34 passes per game. With some simple assumptions, this gives a 54.7% chance that he throws at least one pick.
Geno Smith is slightly worse than the NFL average at throwing picks. Although it seems like his 2.1% INT rate is better than average, this is not the best way to predict the future.
In my research, I've found that looking at INTs and passes defended (or plays in which the defense gets a hand on the ball) is a better way to predict future INTs. Smith is slightly worse than NFL average by this metric.
My model gives a 55.9% chance that he throws a pick against Pittsburgh, which suggests value on Smith over 0.5 interceptions. While members of The Power Rank received this bet at a price of +130 at DraftKings, there is still value at +114.
Check out The Power Rank for MORE INT bets!
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📊 Looking sharp isn’t just about how you dress. Where sharps are betting for Week 17.
👋 Comeback Player of the Year? The NFL’s Daniel Day-Lewis.
🤣 One more Joe Flacco tweet. “Some records were meant to be broken.”
💰 Need more plays? That was rhetorical. We know you need more plays. And we have them (for FREE).
👀 Projections vs prop lines. The Brock bounceback?
🏴☠️ The best Pick’em plays for Week 17. Panthers. Saints. Pour it on.
🥧 “You don’t score, until you score.” Touchdown bets for Week 17.
🔧 Playoff leverage: The Week 17 games that matter most.
Welcome to Week 17 of Bets from the Group Chat, where I (Geoff Ulrich) elicit information from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their bets.
After a loss last week, the group chat three-way parlay record moves to 5-7 (+16.7 units) since we started (assuming one-unit bets).
We have three separate plays from three different sources. If parlays aren’t your thing, we also have the weekly ladder bet as well. Good luck!
All bets are at BetMGM.
✌️ Matt Freedman Likes: Lucas Havrisik Over 1.5 FGs (-120)
- Projection: 2.1
- Play to: -150
Freedman broke this down earlier.
🧀 Matt LaMarca Likes: Packers +1.0 (-110)
- Play to: Packers ML (-110)
- LaMarca covers this bet later in our SNF section.
🐯 Geoff Ulrich Likes: Joe Mixon Over 10.5 Carries (-125)
- Projection: 13.9
- Play to: 11.5 (-115)
Mixon went over this total last week despite having the worst game script imaginable.
I can’t imagine the Bengals won’t be trying to run more in Week 17 given the weak Chiefs rush defense (22nd in success rate).
🤝 Putting It All Together: +529
- Havrisik Over 1.5 FGS (-120)
- Packers +1.0 (-110)
- Mixon Over 10.5 carries (-125)
🚀 Ladder Bet: Darius Slayton Receiving Yards
- 50+ rec yards (+195)
- 50+ rec yards + anytime TD (+800)
- 75+ rec yards (+525)
I like targeting the Rams secondary, which has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards to opposing WRs this year and seven TDs to opposing WRs over the past three games.
Slayton remains the Giants' most consistent big-play WR and has caught passes of 69 and 33 yards over the past two weeks. He has also quietly turned into an every-down player with route rates above 90% in each of the past three games.
For betting, 50+ yards seems reasonable. It’s a number he has cleared six times this season, so the +195 odds (33.9% implied probability) are attractive.
More Bets? Of Course You NEED THEM!
The Packers and Vikings both enter Week 17 with playoff aspirations, but only one will exit the same way. The stakes are high for SNF: The winner sees their playoff odds increase to approximately 50%, the loser dips to 5%. LaMarca breaks down his best best for Packers-Vikings.
🧀 Best Bet: Packers +1.0 (-108, DraftKings)
There has been sharp action on the Vikings, and the Packers are dealing with key absences. Suspending CB Jaire Alexander looms large against WR Justin Jefferson Jefferson, while LB De’Vondre Campbell (doubtful) has been one of their better defenders.
Still, I can’t pass up the opportunity to back QB Jordan Love as an underdog against QB Jaren Hall. Nothing that Hall has done to this point shows that he deserves to be a starter, and I expect him to struggle mightily. HC Kevin O’Connell has gotten the best out of journeymen like Josh Dobbs and Nick Mullens, but this might be too big an ask.
The Massey-Peabody Power Ratings have the Packers as roughly a full point better than the Vikings on a neutral field. However, home-field advantage is mitigated in divisional matchups, and since 2004, divisional road underdogs have gone 656-565-35 ATS (4.4% ROI). While that figure doesn’t jump off the page, it still makes this trend profitable over the monster sample.
👍 Top Prop: Aaron Jones Over 12.5 Carries (-108, FanDuel)
The Packers backfield split has been one of the most maddening utilization situations in recent years. Jones is clearly the better player, yet A.J. Dillon continues to siphon off a healthy chunk of work.
However, we did see a shift away from Dillon in Week 16. It was the first time since Week 11 that both backs were available in the same contest, and Jones had a 54% snap share to Dillon’s 19%. Jones finished with 21 carries while Dillon managed seven. Overall, Jones received 64% of the team’s rushing attempts in that contest, which was his highest mark in any game with Dillon active this season.
With Jones averaging nearly a full extra yard per carry compared to his teammate, expect him to continue to carry the load in a must-win contest.
💪 Ladder Bet: Justin Jefferson (FanDuel)
- 80+ receiving yards (-136)
- 100+ receiving yards (+154)
- 125+ receiving yards (+320)
- 150+ receiving yards (+680)
I have some concerns with Hall, but Jefferson is so talented that it shouldn’t really matter for his individual output.
The Packers also have no one left in their secondary that can guard him and are 24th in dropback EPA since Week 8 to begin with. Jefferson missed the first matchup vs. Green Bay this season, but Jordan Addison and K.J. Osborn combined for 15 catches and 181 yards.
Jefferson has at least 84 receiving yards in all six full games this year. He’s had at least 140 yards in four of those contests. You can grab at least 80 receiving yards at -136 and ladder that all the way up to at least 150 receiving yards at +680.
