I will never be rich or bored enough to wrestle a shark…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Epic Seats:
- Don’t lose sleep. Draft this RB.
- Mid-round RB Targets. Every-down options?
- Seahawks Team Preview. New blood.
- The Best Ball Hub in Action
- It's 6/21. Take it away, Dwain McFarland…
D’Andre Swift is causing me to lose sleep at night.
Why? Because he is a high-end target earner and can rip off chunk plays with the best RBs in the NFL. That profile has enabled legendary seasons from guys like Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara and Austin Ekeler.
Yet, I have only drafted him on 3% of my 101 Underdog teams. Yikes.
Until recently, I slept fine because his ADP was in Round 6, and the opportunity costs were high, with proven WRs like Tyler Lockett and Diontae Johnson going in the same range.
However, Swift’s ADP is down 8.5 spots over the last few weeks and he now goes alongside names like Jahan Dotson and George Pickens, who have their own question marks.
This feels like a spot where we should start adding exposure to Swift because he might carry more upside than any other Round 7 option, given his proven talent profile and playing environment with the Eagles.
To test this out, let’s take a look at a range of outcomes using three different scenarios:
3-way split backfield: 30% rushing attempts; 45% route participation
2-way split backfield: 40% rushing attempts; 55% route participation
Lead back: 55% rushing attempts; 65% route participation
The idea is to identify some reasonable ranges for Swift based on playing time, knowing Jalen Hurts is a constant that gets 25% to 30% of the rushing attempts and dominates carries inside the five.
In the 3-way split scenario, Swift shares evenly with Rashaad Penny, and Kenneth Gainwell also remains involved. In the 2-way split, Swift takes a slight lead over Penny, and Gainwell’s role is limited to passing downs. In the lead-back scenario, Swift is the No. 1 option, with Penny and Gainwell spelling him.
For all of these scenarios, I regressed Swift to the 3-year NFL averages for yards per carry and touchdowns per rushing attempt – negating his career averages, which are well above those marks. Last year in Philadelphia, Miles Sanders was also above the NFL averages.
Despite this regression, Swift’s low-end projected points per game (PPG) of 9.8 is very close to his Round 7 peers.
- Gabriel Davis: 10.5
- Jahan Dotson: 9.9
- Brandin Cooks: 9.8
- Isiah Pacheco: 9.6
- George Pickens: 9.2
- Quentin Johnston: 9.2
- Kadarius Toney: 8.5
While we might take on more injury risk versus the receivers, Swift’s 16.4 PPG upside provides us with something the WRs don’t have in their realistic range of outcomes – making him an ideal RB2 or RB3 target in Round 7 of Underdog drafts.
Alrighty, I am off to draft some D’Andre so I can swiftly fall asleep tonight!
If you aren’t ready to draft or sleep, read on for more mid-round RB targets from Chris Allen!
WRs are FLYING off the board in early fantasy drafts, which means RBs are falling. Today Chris Allen hones in on two backs with a clear path to touches that you can target in the middle rounds…
Our approach to drafting the core positions (RBs and WRs) has changed. Elite passers are getting the nod earlier than ever before, and their stacking partners, typically WRs and TEs, are along for the ride. So, RBs are becoming value targets when we get into the middle rounds.
With drafters leaning into early WR-heavy builds, it’s important to know how many RBs to take and what kind. And using past Best Ball Mania data, I could bin some overachieving rushers into RB archetypes.
So, with an eye on ’23, we can identify the guys with the most potential to advance our teams into the playoffs.
🎯 Rachaad White, Buccaneers - ADP: 84.9
The simplistic approach to Rachaad White’s mid-round potential is that there’s no Leonard Fournette. At least not yet.
The Bucs picked up Chase Edmonds, but he earned six red-zone carries all season last year. Meanwhile, White was picking up more work as his rookie campaign continued.
Fournette’s average snap rate fell from 72.0% to 48.0%, and we saw more White. As a result, White’s overall carry rate (46.9%) and target share (9.6%) exceeded the average for mid-round hits down the stretch. And with Fournette still unsigned, White can add to his touch count in the red zone.
The TB12-sized hole in Tampa’s offense is creating doubt amongst drafters. And neither Baker Mayfield nor Kyle Trask is making it easier for us to trust this offense. But the uncertainty plays into White’s cost, and his competition for touches can’t get weaker.
🎯 James Conner, Cardinals - ADP: 87.4
Arizona said goodbye to DeAndre Hopkins. Head Coach Jonathan Gannon won’t put a timeline on Kyler Murray’s return. In short, the Cardinals may start the season without their best weapons. But it shouldn’t change how we feel about James Conner.
Two seasons ago, Conner was ‘22’s version of Jamaal Williams. The former Steelers’ RB had 18 carries inside the 5-yard line and converted 10. He still has a stranglehold on the touches, but we expect the offense to take a step back this season. And while I agree, volume (overall or high-value) might not be an issue.
Again, I’ll cop to using a small sample. But we only saw Colt McCoy, the possible Week 1 starter, in just three games. And two were division games. Regardless, the offense ran a similar number of plays, still got into the red zone, and Conner’s target share increased.
The only other RBs on Arizona’s roster who earned touches last year were Corey Clement and Keaontay Ingram. They combined for 19 carries and three targets on the season. Conner hit those marks by himself in a single game. Twice. I’ll bank on his volume.
2 More Mid-Round RBs to Target!
🔎 This WR is under investigation. Something to keep an eye on…
🤔 He had a decent run in LA before. Can he challenge Cam Akers?
🚫 The six commandments. The NFL is cracking down.
😎 This RB is on track for training camp. LFG!!!
💰 Want to get better at best ball? Bet, just watch this.
🌴 Celebrate Best Ball Summer with us! Today at 4pm ET
🐸 Can Kadarius Toney make the next leap? He has a long way to go.
📈 Could the Giants pass more? This WR made a difference.
😡 The NFL is tough on RBs. Just pay this man.
📋 The top-5 RBs of all time? Two players sound off.
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Fantasy Life senior analyst Ian Hartitz is breaking down all 32 NFL teams this offseason, and we’re closing in on the finish line! Let’s take a look at the Seahawks, who added new weapons via the NFL draft…
RB
- Kenneth Walker (Ian’s RB18)
- Zach Charbonnet (RB35)
There was a lot to like from Walker’s rookie season. The Michigan State product quickly proved fully capable of taking the rock to the house at a moment’s notice, utilizing a blend of long speed and tackle-breaking ability that few RBs possess.
The rookie’s advanced numbers stacked up with the league’s top backs … for the most part.
- PFF Rushing Grade: 83.5 (No. 11 among 42 qualified RB)
- PFF Receiving Grade: 56.0 (No. 35)
- PFF Pass-blocking Grade: 32.0 (No. 43)
- Yards per carry: 4.6 (No. 15)
- Yards after contact per carry: 3.16 (No. 13)
- Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.21 (No. 14)
- Explosive run play rate: 0.127 (No. 9)
- Success rate: 42% (No. 41)
The receiving metrics and last variable are the key problem here: These numbers suggest Walker was a boom-or-bust early-down rusher with a tendency to favor the chance for a chunk gain despite the heightened risk to take a loss.
And yet, peeping the film a bit closer adds some doubt to just how much of the fault should be directed at Walker on some of his least-productive runs. The man didn’t rack up 1,215 total yards and nine TDs in 15 games by accident.
I’m not against Walker at his RB15 ADP (pick 52), although I’ve leaned towards Joe Mixon in this range if not taking a WR. Still, Mixon continues to climb up and figures to eventually surpass Walker, leaving him as a more than viable option in the fifth and (sometimes with a drop) sixth rounds.
Of course, the only reason why Walker isn’t locked in as a top-six option at the position like he was earlier in the offseason is because the Seahawks decided to use a second-round pick on UCLA RB Zach Charbonnet. The Athletic’s Dan Brugler wrote the following about Charbonnet in his ever-excellent “The Beast”
“A two-year starter at UCLA, Charbonnet was an ideal fit for head coach Chip Kelly’s diverse run offense (pins, pulls, counters, etc.) and was mentored by Bruins running back coach DeShaun Foster (former second-round pick out of UCLA who spent seven seasons in the NFL).
The Michigan transfer was consistently productive in his two seasons with the Bruins, leading the FBS in all-purpose yards per game (168.0) and the Pac-12 in rushing (1,359) in 2022.
Charbonnet reads the field and his blockers exceptionally well and consistently picks up positive yardage with his ability to absorb contact. He is an average burst runner and can be tracked down from behind, but while he won’t hit many home runs, he will pile up the doubles (22.6 percent of his carries resulted in a 10-plus-yard gain in 2022).
Overall, Charbonnet is not a dynamic start-stop athlete to quickly change rush lanes or escape trouble, but he has extraordinary vision with reliable pass-catching and blocking skills and impeccable football character. He projects as a low-end NFL starter.”
Dane Brugler
It wouldn’t be surprising if Charbonnet immediately battles for Travis Homer’s leftover pass-down work. Beat writer Gregg Bell has already said not to “be surprised at the playing time and opportunities” that he’ll get in year one.
Charbonnet might not unseat Walker as the lead early-down back, but pass-game opportunities could be plentiful – and there’s serious upside here should the latter back be forced to miss any time in 2023. This “FLEX with benefits” combination makes the rookie a quality mid-to-late-round selection going alongside similar archetypes like A.J. Dillon and Samaje Perine.
CLICK HERE for the rest of the SEAHAWKS Preview!
