There’s no such thing as too much of a good thing …
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by the BetMGM:
- Sunday Injuries: Bills missing multiple starters …
- Mattress Mack: #HowRich!
- Lions vs. Buccaneers: Lions on upset alert?
- Bills vs. Chiefs: Mahomes v. Allen Round Seven
- It’s 1/21: Take it away, Matthew Freedman…
With the Ravens and 49ers taking care of business yesterday, we have two games today to finalize the matchups for next week’s conference championships: Lions-Buccaneers and Bills-Chiefs.
While Geoff Ulrich and Matt LaMarca break down these games later in the newsletter, here are the injuries to be aware of for each matchup.
🦁 Lions
The Lions will be without field-stretching WR Kalif Raymond (knee) for a second straight week, but I expect star rookie TE Sam LaPorta (knee, Q) to suit up, just as he did for Super Wild Card Weekend.
And EDGE James Houston (ankle, IR) has a real chance to play through his questionable tag after practicing fully this week.
The Lions are as healthy as they’ve been in months.
☠️ Buccaneers
Last week, QB Baker Mayfield (ribs, ankle) failed to log a full practice in any of his three sessions — but then he looked great with 337 yards and three TDs passing and 2-16-0 rushing. This week, he practiced fully every day. Physically, Mayfield should play without limitations against the Lions.
The big unknown for the Bucs is EDGE Shaquil Barrett (ankle, Q). It’s suboptimal that he missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday, but I tentatively project him to play after he got a limited session on Friday.
Neither No. 2 RB Chase Edmonds (toe, Q) nor No. 3 QB John Wolford (illness, Q) matters … but I think they’ll probably be in uniform.
🚑 Bills
The Bills exited last week with major injury concerns — especially with just six days between games — but their final injury report isn’t nearly as bad as it could’ve been.
On the positive side, No. 1 CB Rasul Douglas (knee) and LB Tyrel Dodson (shoulder) are returning to action after missing Super Wild Card Weekend, and I tentatively expect slot CB Taron Johnson (concussion, Q) to clear the so-called “protocol” (cough).
Also, I assume that P Sam Martin (hamstring, Q) will play, but that’s not a given, as the Bills signed P Matt Haack as a fallback option this week.
On the negative side, No. 2 WR Gabe Davis (knee) is out once again, and he’ll be joined on the sideline by CB Christian Benford (knee), S Taylor Rapp (calf), LB Baylon Spector (back), and probably LB Terrel Bernard (ankle, Q), who missed practice all week.
Ultimately, the Bills could be without two (maybe three) starters and two key backups in the back seven of their defense.
🏹 Chiefs
The Chiefs will be without swing OT Wanya Morris (concussion) and depth WRs Kadarius Toney (hip, ankle), Skyy Moore (knee, IR), and maybe Justyn Ross (hamstring, Q) yet again … but their absence is unlikely to be noticed.
More impactful, though, will be the gaping DL void left by NT Derrick Nnadi (tricep), who exited last week early and is out this week.
But Nnadi will likely be the only meaningful injury for the Chiefs, as I expect EDGE Charles Omenihu (hamstring, illness) and LB Willie Gay (neck) to play through questionable tags.
With eight days between games and a marked health advantage over the Bills, I bet on the Chiefs at +3 and think they have a real shot to win outright.
Check out more of Freedman’s Best Bets!
For everything you need for the Divisional Round Sunday slate — including our inactives page — you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.
See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:
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Read on to see our team’s best bets for both Sunday Divisional Round games!
🏈 When they score, you score. TD bets for Sunday.
🤝 Mattress Mack meets ESPNBet. Arbitrage bettors win.
🤝 Great minds think alike. Bets from the Group Chat for Divisional Round.
🏆 That’s my MVP. Lamar Jackson makes history vs. Texans.
💰 Need more plays? That was rhetorical. We have them. For FREE.
💔 This bettor was not feeling the Love. Nearly $1M in potential profit goes down with Packers.
✍️ The best Pick ’em plays for Sunday: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, wait, where are you going?
📈 An early look at AFC odds. Ravens tapping at the Super Bowl door.
📊 Looking sharp isn’t just about how you dress. Where sharps are betting for the Divisional Round.
Buccaneers at Lions. Thieves of the sea vs. large jungle cats. Cast-off vs. cast-off. This game may not have the marquee names of some of the other Divisional Round games, but the stakes for Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff (two former No. 1 overall draft picks) are high. Offense should lead the way in this game, and for betting purposes there are some stylistic trends we can attack. Geoff Ulrich dives in with his thoughts on the Lions-Buccaneers …
🏴☠️️ Best Bet: Buccaneers +6.5 (-115, FanDuel)
- Play to: +6.0
I bet the Lions in a teaser with the Chiefs (-0.5/+8.5) earlier in the week, and while I still like that bet, if I were betting this game today, my preference would be to take the Buccaneers and the points.
Detroit’s defense feels like they are pushing the envelope as to how many explosive plays a team can give up while still winning the game outright. Last week, the 9.9 yards per attempt they allowed to the Rams was the third-worst mark of the Wild Card slate, with only Cleveland and Dallas (who both lost) being worse.
The Buccaneers’ defense has also developed some teeth. They landed three sacks and held Jalen Hurts to just 7.1 yards per attempt last week, and they’ve allowed just 11.0 points per game over their past four. Overall, the Tampa Bay defense is the healthiest it’s been all season.
From a trend perspective, I don’t love going against Jared Goff indoors (25-9 ATS the past three years in a dome), but the Bucs were the best in the NFL on the road this season (8-1 ATS) and feel likely to keep this within a TD (if not win outright).
📈 Top Prop: Rachaad White Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-110, bet365)
- Play to: 23.5 (-110)
- Projection: 26.6
We may see several Buccaneers receivers have big days in this game. The Lions have a pass-funnel defense that has allowed an average of 379.5 passing yards over their past four games. While Rachaad White saw only one target last week, much of his rushing usage from the Eagles game (18 carries, 72 yards; 1 rec, 5 yards) was game flow induced.
Simply put, the Lions, who are 7-2 SU at home and seventh in success rate on offense, aren’t likely to allow Tampa Bay to get a lead anywhere near the kind they had against the Eagles (if they allow them to lead at all).
That almost certainly means more passing down work for White, who has gone over 21.5 yards in 13/19 games this season.
💰 Same-Game Parlay (+1400, DraftKings)
- Baker Mayfield 300+ passing yards
- Mike Evans 100+ receiving yards
- Evans anytime TD
- White over 22.5 receiving yards
+1400 isn’t terrible for a four-way correlated prop. Outside of the Lions OL getting dominated and Detroit being unable to move the ball with regularity (highly unlikely), I think the only way for the Buccaneers to stay close in this game is via the pass.
The good news is they have the horses to dominate in that area. Mike Evans just missed out on a long TD last week, and something tells me the Buccaneers will be eager to attempt a few similar plays with Evans against this equally bad Lions secondary. If Evans does hit his props, Baker Mayfield (14th in yards per attempt) is likely flying over 300 yards passing again as well — a milestone he’s hit four times in 19 games and three times in his past five.
Throw in our White over prop from above (which correlates strongly with Mayfield’s over), and we get some nice odds on a four-way sweat for Sunday.
Chiefs vs. Bills. Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen. Does it get any better than this? Two of the best QBs in football will square off for the seventh time, with each player owning three head-to-head wins. However, Mahomes is 2-0 against Allen in the playoffs. Can he pick up another victory, or will Allen get on the board? Matt LaMarca breaks down his best bets for Chiefs-Bills.
📉 Best Bet: Under 45.5 (-110, BetMGM)
There are plenty of reasons to like the under in this matchup. It’s always scary to back the under in games featuring Mahomes and Allen, but their teams have gone a combined 24-12 to the under this season.
No team in football has hit the under at a higher frequency than the Chiefs, who are not nearly the same offensive team they’ve been in the past. They’re merely 11th in EPA/play offensively, and after ranking first in points and yards per game last season, they’re 15th and ninth in those categories this year.
On the other side, the Bills have adopted a more run-heavy approach since Joe Brady took over as OC. They’ve had a negative DBOE in their past five games, and they’ve been at -9% or lower in three.
We’ll never forget the last time these teams met in the playoffs, but they’ve been unable to reach those heights in their rematches. Their past two meetings have gone under 45.5, with both teams focused on limiting big plays and forcing their opponent to string together long drives. Add in how good outdoor playoff unders have been historically, and this game has all the makings of an under.
🏈 Top Prop: Josh Allen Anytime TD (-105, Caesars)
I’m not sure why Allen doesn’t get the same love in the anytime TD market as a guy like Jalen Hurts. Even though it might not feel like it, they had the same number of rushing TDs during the regular season (15).
Allen isn’t quite as active inside the five-yard line as Hurts, but the fact remains that they’re two of the preeminent TD scorers in all of football. Until Allen starts getting priced that way in the anytime TD market, I’m going to be interested in taking advantage.
This also stands out as a solid matchup for Allen. The Chiefs have had an excellent pass defense this season, but they’ve been suspect against the run. They were 28th in rushing EPA during the regular season, so the Bills should have some success on the ground. Expect Allen to be a big part of it.
🧑🍳 Same-Game Parlay (+1806, FanDuel)
- Under 45.5
- Bills -2.5
- Allen anytime TD
- James Cook over 61.5 rushing yards
- Khalil Shakir over 34.5 receiving yards
I’m starting my SGP with the under, and I’m pairing it with the Bills -2.5. Mahomes has an impeccable track record as an underdog, but I think the Bills are the better team. The Chiefs have serious flaws offensively, and last week’s performance vs. the Dolphins doesn’t change that in my eyes.
After that, I’m adding three Bills props: Allen anytime TD, Cook over 61.5 rushing yards, and Shakir over 34.5 receiving yards. Cook has been dynamic all season and has seen a bump under Brady, and he should be able to carve up the Chiefs D. Shakir should see a boost in value with Gabe Davis out of the lineup, just as he did last week.
