💡 How To Handle Cleveland In Drafts

We need Jacoby Brissett to go 11-0....

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter Presented by ESPN+:

• Deshaun Watson suspended for 11 games
• 3 bets for this weekend's UFC card on ESPN+
• Matthew's new podcast!
• What is up with Tom Brady?
• Kevin's rookie WR breakout
• Sam's 2 favorite sleepers
• How to draft from the 9 slot
• It’s 8/19. Take it away, Peter Overzet…

Well, we knew a bigger suspension was coming for Deshaun Watson, and yesterday we got the final ruling:

Watson will be suspended for the first 11 games of the season and will also pay a $5 million fine for violating the league's personal conduct policy. 

All in all, it's a pretty weak ruling from the NFL who initially postured for an "indefinite" suspension and a massive fine.

The man just got $230M guaranteed and all you could agree on was $5M to charity?

— Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen)
Aug 18, 2022

Watson continues to flip flop on his own messaging, claiming his innocence in one breath while offering apologies in the next. 

His first game back will conveniently be Week 13 against the Texans in Houston because if there's one thing the NFL does well its scripting a soap opera. 

watson's first game back — browns vs. texans — will showcase the two franchises who did the most to condone and enable his behavior

— Cowboys Stats & Graphics (@CowboysStats)
Aug 18, 2022

As for fantasy, he's basically undraftable in managed leagues where you'd have to torch a bench spot for 12 weeks. QB is just too deep this year to waste a spot for that long.

He's also not really in play for best ball tournaments either, as best ball pro Justin Herzig outlines here. 

Most of the fantasy-relevant Browns players—Amari Cooper, Kareem Hunt, David Njoku—have had reasonable ADPs throughout this whole ordeal so there's not a lot of adjustment needed there. If you can get them at a further discount, there's still a chance for some late season upside but it will be a bumpy road to get there.

If there's one silver lining to all of this, it's that this exhausting saga is finally over from a speculation standpoint. Let's move on...

Saturday night features a title shot in the Welterweight division between Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards. This is a highly anticipated matchup along with a full lineup of fights for this weekend’s PPV card. Today our friend Jon Kelly from Fight Numbers highlights 2 of the fights from UFC 278 he is targeting in the betting market...

💰 Jay Perrin Moneyline (+140)

Jay Perrin matches up against Aori Qileng, who is just 1-2 in the UFC. I think Qileng is getting a bit too much respect in this betting line based on his last fight, where he knocked out Cameron Else in the first round, but I do not put too much stock into that as Else is very fragile. Additionally, Qileng has consistently been very hittable on the feet as he does not move his head off the center line. 

The cardio dynamic should also favor Perrin as he has shown that he can push a high pace for 15 minutes if needed. He should be able to land takedowns here as well as Qileng defends at just 54% in the UFC. Perrin should be able to stay competitive on the feet, have all the grappling upside along with a cardio advantage as well. This fight should be closer to a pick ‘em or even slightly lean Perrin so I am happy to take the plus money shot on the underdog. 

Want to sweat your UFC bets in real time this weekend?  Get access to UFC 287 on ESPN+:

💰 Sean Woodson to win by KO/TKO (+250) 

Sean Woodson gets a favorable matchup against Luis Saldana in what should primarily be a kickboxing match for as long as it lasts. Woodson is currently a (-320) betting favorite, but I think there is a better way to target him with the knockout prop. Saldana relies heavily on his length and his kicking attack, but Woodson will be the one with the five-inch reach advantage and will be the much better boxer in this fight. 

The biggest issue on the Saldana side is his gas tank as he historically gasses every fight. He has also been hurt to the body multiple times and Woodson is going to mix it up with his boxing and I expect him to put Saldana away as the fight goes. I also do not mind taking some small shots on Woodson round two or three at a bigger number, but my favorite is the knockout prop at (+250). 

For more of Jon's MMA analysis, check out his Youtube Channel.

🔥 ROTOWORLD IS BACK! 

Matthew's new podcast drops this MONDAY! Subscribe here and while you're at it, leave a rating and review! 

My new podcast starts this Monday Aug 22nd… Please subscribe below.

— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR)
Aug 18, 2022

🕵️‍♂️ What is going in with Tom Brady? He's M.I.A. right now, but we have a theory on what's going on.

📈 The sleeper rookie WR improving quickly. He should have a role right out of the gate.

🎯 13 RB fliers to take at the end of drafts. Nice list from John Daigle here.

💪 The RB making a quick injury recovery. Sounds like he's live to play Week 1. 

🏈 How to exploit QB tendencies to find fantasy value. Jake Tribbey from Fantasy Points is here to help. 

🏆 My favorite RB to take in drafts. This reporting has me hyped.

🤔 The Steelers RB2? Had not heard this name before.

🙏🏻 R.I.P. Luke Knox. Heartbreaking news about the brother of Bills' TE Dawson Knox.

Drafting safe ain't it. We need to be taking big swings to win our leagues. Today, Kevin shares a promising rookie WR he thinks is primed for a breakout...

🚀 Treylon Burks (WR45)

We all love the new shiny toys in fantasy football, and let’s face it — who wouldn’t want the biggest and fastest of the new shiny toys in Titans rookie WR Treylon Burks?

Burks’ profile as a prospect is pretty eye-popping, especially considering he reportedly played at 240 pounds last season for Arkansas. He recorded the fastest on-field speed in 2021 at 22.6 MPH but then ran a less-than-stellar 40-yard dash time of 4.55 seconds at the NFL Combine months later.

Burks’ 8.5 YAC (14th overall among 169 qualifying college WR over the last two seasons (per Andrew Erickson) should be an almost one-for-one scheme fit for the Titans as they look to slot in a younger, bigger version of the departed A.J. Brown in Burks.

The initial rumblings on Burks as an NFL prospect were that he would be “the next Deebo Samuel” — a tag that was often used and seemed to reach meme status throughout the winter, spring, and summer. But if any player could be that type of player, it’s Burks, as he lined up all over the formation as a college player, including the backfield.

With the Titans set to reprise their run-heavy ways in 2022 by strapping the offense's success to the back of RB Derrick Henry, there’s still a valuable role in the passing game left unfilled at the moment in this offense that, frankly, is not exactly bursting at the seams with explosive pass-catching options. New WR Robert Woods reportedly may not be ready for Week 1, and there is little else in the way of proven NFL pass-catchers across the rest of the depth chart besides TE Austin Hooper and holdover WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine.

Burks has as good of a chance as any of the NFL rookies to shake off some of the training camp knocks and pay off his WR45 ADP in a big way. He has ample opportunity to do just that and his affordable price in drafts makes him a must-draft option.

In this series, our contributors will share the sleepers that they're targeting in drafts. Today, Sam hypes up two young guns... 

💤 Jahan Dotson (WR58)

Identifying players going late in drafts who can provide meaningful production for your fantasy teams is a yearly task. But it’s incredibly rewarding when done well.

Rookie WR Jahan Dotson fits the mold.

Going as the WR58 courtesy of the Fantasy Life ADP Tool, the 16th overall pick comes with polished route running skills, solid hands, and an enticing college production profile. He posted a 43% dominator rating in his final two years at Penn State.

There are legitimate concerns with QB Carson Wentz, but the depth chart behind WR Terry McLaurin is wide open. Dotson built rapport with Wentz while McLaurin was working through contract negotiations.

A little camp hype doesn’t hurt either. Dotson has been tabbed as “the best WR on the team right now” at training camp. It’s high praise but the first-round pick is establishing himself as a legitimate weapon for his new team.

According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Commanders have the No. 6 easiest strength of schedule. That should benefit both Wentz and this offense, making Dotson appealing at cost.

💤 Brevin Jordan (TE27)

Rookie TEs are rarely relevant (unless you’re Kyle Pitts) but getting an athletic starter on a wide open depth chart is always worth a look.

TE Brevin Jordan posted an uninspiring rookie stat line of 20 / 178 / 3 on 28 targets.

He didn’t see the field until Week 8 but in his final eight games he was a TE1 four times. That’s noteworthy at a shallow position that’s often streamed.

WR Brandin Cooks is the No. 1 option but besides WR Nico Collins no other name jumps off the depth chart.

Seemingly the forgotten rookie, QB Davis Mills started periodically last year and posted impressive per/game numbers from Weeks 14-18:

• 20 points
• 33 passing attempts
• 251 passing yards
• 9 total TDs

Mills was also QB12 in completion % last season. Jordan could certainly have a worse QB.

Courtesy of BetMGM, the Texans are +2500 to win their division. Only the Falcons have longer odds. Negative game scripts should be early and often for this team making Jordan an appealing late-round sleeper at TE.

Season long drafts are just around the corner. In this series, our contributors will get you prepared from all twelve of the first round draft slots. Today, Cooterdoodle shares how to attack a draft from the ninth pick...

I can convince myself that any draft spot is the best position to be in if I have to. It’s a blessing and a curse. So obviously the 1.09 is the perfect place to be! Let’s breakdown why:

• You’re not at the turn waiting a two full rounds to get your picks in. In that scenario you miss a ton of valuable players. Because of the long wait, you often have to reach for players that won’t ever make it back. You’ll hate yourself for reaching, but it's a necessary evil on the bookend picks of the draft board. Luckily, that’s not our problem.
• You’ve got a solid chance of snagging a top tier WR or RB in the first. If not, you can always draft Travis Kelce. 
• You’re not smack dab in the middle of each round wondering if you have enough time to pee in between picks (You don’t. Stay seated.)
• Your second round pick will still be a great starter. Mike Evans? Davante Adams? Aaron Jones?
• You won’t get your hopes up only to subsequently get them destroyed when one of the top four players goes off the board right before your turn. You’ll never get Jonathan Taylor, Cooper Kupp, or Christian McCaffrey. Doesn’t that feel nice pulling the bandaid off early? :) We’re smiling through the pain here.
• Lastly, you are in a great position to watch how your league is drafting. Are they going heavy on RB? Have they panicked and started a WR run? There are just enough picks happening in between yours to get a feel for which positions are flying off of the board. Then, you can decide whether or not you want to Zig when they Zag or zig along with them.